川普的刀被自己人收了！習近平的會開不下去！違憲關稅一月退491億、軍隊大清洗五大戰區沉默、習花錢只買一句別動我、台灣是道具伊朗才是要價！管理式停火七成、11月10日定時炸彈誰來按

Welcome to refusing fragmented

perception. On September 24th, that

idiot Xi is going to the White House to

meet Trump. All the reports you've seen

these past few days ask the same

question: what agreement will these two

sign, right? I think this framing is

wrong from the start, because this

meeting isn't about signing a specific

deal, but about a basket of negotiation

issues. What should our focus actually

be? It should be on how both sides will

haggle moving forward. Look, the second

half of this year is packed; first, in

October, the CCP holds its Fifth

Plenary Session, which is what exactly?

It’s a window to observe Xi’s path

to reelection, and then, early November

marks the U.S. midterm elections.

Looking further ahead, November 10th is

the expiration date for the China-U.S.

trade agreement. Let’s clarify this

China-U.S. trade agreement first; we

need to go back to late October 2025,

when China and the U.S. had a round of

talks in Busan and agreed to a one-year

ceasefire. It’s not just one clause

expiring, but a whole string of them.

First, the U.S. suspension of tariffs

is expiring, then the port fees for

Chinese ships entering the U.S. are

also up, and on the CCP side, their 10%

retaliatory tariffs on the U.S. are

expiring too. What’s the biggest

highlight remaining? It’s the rare

earth suspension, also set to expire in

those first few days of November. Which

of these is the most brutal? It’s the

rule set by the U.S. Department of

Commerce. What rule? If a company is

put on the Entity List, any firm where

it holds over a 50%stake—whether a

subsidiary or a sub-subsidiary—

doesn't need to be named individually;

they are all automatically bundled in.

This rule came out at the end of 2025

and was frozen right after the Busan

talks for a one-year period. I dug out

the original text of that freeze order

and read it; it states clearly that on

October 10, 2026, this rule will

automatically reactivate, and

indefinitely at that. Let everyone

ponder that—what does "automatically

reactivate" mean? It means no one needs

to sign anything, no meetings are

required, and no public notices need to

be issued. The White House doesn't have

to lift a finger; it will just come

back to life on its own. In the same

batch of documents, the section on port

fees uses different boilerplate

language, saying the U.S. Trade

Representative’s office will continue

to monitor and decide whether to extend

the suspension upon expiration. So you

see this landscape: one side is

effectively firing, and the other is

effectively holding fire. Let’s go

back and look at these two individuals

'political situations; their meeting at

the end of September happens to land

right on their respective critical

political calendars. Starting with

Trump: from September 24th to October

3rd, that period is just about 40 days

—maybe even less. Trump’s current

report card is quite polarized; one

half is passable, while the other is

truly hideous. Where is the decent side

? It’s in the stock market. The S&P

has hit intraday record highs 27 times

this year, with a gain of about 15%from

the start of the year to now. Where is

the hideous side? It’s the real

economy. Look at the University of

Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index; it

dropped to 51 in August. This is the

lowest that figure has ever been since

the data started in 1978. Just how low

is this 51? It is lower than it was

during any of the six economic

recessions in between. The monthly data

isn't great either; July’s non-farm

payroll was negative, and they even

revised May and June down by 100,000

jobs. Looking at approval ratings:

balancing polls from anti-Trump and

pro-Trump positions, his overall net

approval is around negative 20%.

Looking at inflation alone, it's near

negative 45%. What does an issue with a

negative 45%rating mean? It means that

before the midterm elections, he

absolutely cannot do anything that

drives prices up. Therefore, what Trump

wants is actually very specific. In

this situation, what does he need to

show most? A tough stance against China

. When the time comes, the old material

will certainly be dug up and whipped

repeatedly—like how China supposedly

bought more, or how close his

relationship was with them, and how he

supposedly compromised. What is the

other issue? It’s the U.S. fiscal

problem. This year was already set to

be one of significant fiscal pressure

for the U.S., for the simple reason

that 10.6 trillion dollars in national

debt must be repriced within 12 months.

This batch of old debt was issued years

ago when interest rates were as low as

1%. If repriced at today's rates, the

U.S. Treasury would have to pay at

least $ 300 billion more in annual

interest—that is just the additional

portion. So, what exactly was Trump’s

original plan? To generate extra

revenue by raising tariffs and

influence expectations in the Treasury

market. However, this past February,

the Supreme Court declared those

tariffs unconstitutional. In June alone

, how much did U.S. Customs refund in

tariffs? A total of $ 49.1 billion,

while the new tariffs collected that

month were only $ 23.6 billion; meaning

they refunded more than double what

they took in. Shortly after, the

Congressional Budget Office released an

update on August 20th that was very

blunt. What did it say? It stated that

net tariff revenue for this fiscal year

is $ 250 billion less than what they

projected in February. Let’s keep

looking. Does this mean tariffs on

China are gone? Not at all, there’s

still about 30%in place, but what is

that 30%based on? It’s cobbled

together from Section 301 and Section

232. But these tools are certainly not

as direct as the National Emergencies

Act. They follow a different process:

the measures require public comment,

hearings, and must also allow for an

exemption period for goods already in

transit. Take the new forced labor

tariff imposed on July 24th, the 12.5%

surcharge on Chinese goods; it took

four full months from the proposal in

March to implementation in July. So, do

you see it now? Trump can still raise

taxes, but he can no longer do it

suddenly. And if a threat lacks the

element of surprise, its effectiveness

—well, what does that mean? It means

that whether you can fulfill a threat

is one thing, but whether you can

fulfill it immediately is quite another

. Therefore, a punishment that takes

two to four months to implement is

inherently less of a deterrent. What is

this like? It’s like the stock

market’s IV, or implied volatility.

When it goes up, insurance naturally

becomes expensive; when implied

volatility drops, insurance naturally

becomes cheaper. And what is the

pricing of this insurance? It’s the

threat that market volatility poses to

one’s overall position. Moving on to

the preparations before both sides meet

; the script remains the same. Before

their meeting, both sides have been

kicking each other under the table like

children, non-stop; it’s just that

kind of game where you nudge me and I

hit you back. The CCP side hasn't been

sitting idle either. On August 5th, the

Ministry of Commerce launched five

measures in one go, placing seven

American companies on a sanctions list,

and what else did they do? They

tightened exports of drone components

to the U.S. and launched a so-called

national security investigation into

imported printers and peripheral

equipment; they’ve done a whole

series of things that you can see for