You are not prepared for what is coming…
完整文本记录
farmers plant in the spring. Right now,
we are shutting down the critical
ingredients to most European factories
who make fertilizer.
>> Right. Okay. And so, by the time that
gets through, whenever it gets through,
it's going to be too late
to make the fertilizer. You're going to
miss the whole spring season. So, I I
don't know. I just saw a headline.
Goldman Sachs uh leading member of the
New York Fed says that uh it's going to
be shut down for 21 days, right?
>> Yeah.
>> Missed the planning season. Okay. So, so
if if you look at the material coming
through that's critical to chip
production, the material coming through
the straits that's critical to
fertilizer and food, and the material
coming through that's that's critical to
energy, you're talking about massive
dislocation of the global economy and if
it goes on for long enough, I mean, we
have Peru, Thailand, other people
talking about doing CO kind of shutdowns
to save gas and fuel. No,
>> in case you missed it, there is a war
going on in the Middle East.
After Iran received strikes on their
military leaders from the US and Israel,
they decided to essentially blockade the
straight of Hormuz where 20% of the
world's oil and gas flows through as
well as fertilizer. Right now, this is
creating what the International Energy
Agency is calling the worst energy
crisis in modern history. The
Philippines declared a national
emergency.
Several countries in Asia are already
rationing fuel in Europe might be next.
Gas prices in the US are on their way to
all-time highs. And airlines are
cancelling thousands of flights. So
about 3 weeks into this whole conflict,
Trump gave Iran an ultimatum. Open the
straight or have your power plants
bombed. This would be a humanitarian
disaster that could leave tens of
millions of people without power and
according to experts would very likely
constitute a war crime as this would be
an attack on civilian infrastructure. At
first he gave Iran 48 hours and then
before that time elapsed he said that
the US and Iran were in talks. So he
extended the deadline for 10 days and
now that time is coming up. and he
posted a 48-hour reminder for the 10
days. And then he also posted this on
Easter Sunday. He said, quote, "Tuesday
will be power plant day and bridge day
all wrapped up in one in Iran. There
will be nothing like it. Open the effing
straight, you crazy, or you'll be living
in hell. Just watch. Praise be to Allah.
Donald J. Trump. End quote.
He later put out a post giving the exact
deadline of Tuesday, 8:00 p.m. Eastern.
Uh, which is a little bit later than
that original 48 hour reminder that he
gave on Saturday. And so, everyone is
wondering if Trump is actually going to
follow through this time or if he's
going to push the deadline back again.
Now, I personally have no idea what is
going to happen next, but what I can say
with confidence is that the way that
this is moving is looking like we're
definitely pushing into the direction of
having a complete and utter global
economic catastrophe. At this point,
even if the straight of Hormuz is
opened, we have energy infrastructure
around the world that's been destroyed.
A liqufied natural gas refiner in Qatar
has said that they will need up to 5
years to get back up to their normal
production capacity. Ukraine has been
damaging energy infrastructure in
Russia.
The US had some random explosion at a
refinery in Texas. And it just feels
like the world's energy infrastructure
is under attack. Now, if the war
continues to escalate,
then the damage that's being done is
something that's going to last for
years. It will take them a 100red years
to rebuild. Right now, if we left today,
it would take them 20 years to rebuild
their country, and it would never be as
good as it was. And the only way they're
going to be able to rebuild their
country is to utilize the genius of the
United States of America. And the
problems that come from this might not
just be higher gas prices.
>> So this is CO 2.0.
>> Yeah.
>> Because Yeah. It's this is how you shut
down. This is a new excuse to shut down
um to preserve energy and food. I think
the big problem here is famine. So you
have seen the new administration in the
United States systematically cut the
domestic funds that are available to
support food for poor people in
emergencies as well as the USID and
state department aid to protect
countries that have emergencies you know
like food. So, so you have I don't know
25
maybe billion dollars traditionally that
the US had available to to stop famines.
That money is all cut and now you have
something that's creating the conditions
of famine.
>> The thing that I'm most concerned with
is the fact that people really aren't
paying attention to this yet and we're
pretty deep into the issue. The problems
that are going to come from this haven't
made it to the west yet because there's
still shipments that are making their
way to their destinations.
I watched a video the other day from a
guy named Max Fiser. Shout out to you,
Max. And he described how the oil
tankers that are floating across the
ocean are moving at the rate of a
bicycle.
And therefore it can take around a month
for the shipments to get from the
straight of Hormuz to where they would
typically go. So a lot of the world
hasn't necessarily seen the last of the
shipments that have made their way out
of the straight of Hormuz. But once the
final shipments make it to their
destinations,
things are going to get a little bit
different. A lot of analysts, including
JP Morgan, essentially said that it
would be around midappril that all of
the effects from this would start to hit
the western world. Once those final
shipments make it to their destinations,
the way that things are starting to work
is that
essentially these oil tankers and
whatnot are getting redirected based
upon where people are bidding the
highest for the delivery of these goods.
And so because of that, right, you're
going to see massive increases in the
prices of things because you're just
going to have an all-out bidding war for
getting the goods that you need. Now,
that's what's happening on the global
trade level, and I don't expect things
to get like that uh down to the local
level, but just something to keep in
mind. The biggest problem that could
come with an escalation of the war is
the closing of the Bob Elmand Debstrait
over in the Red Sea, which the Houthi
rebels from Yemen have already
threatened to go ahead and try to close.
That right there would make this problem
even worse. The biggest concern that I
have is that all of this that's
happening in the world could easily be
pushing us into a place that looks a lot
like what we saw in 2020
where people had to rely on government
services just to get by. We saw a member
of Congress in the United States
actually released legislation that did
not get passed, but it was floated that
had language about digital dollar
wallets and Fed accounts when at that
time nobody had heard anything about
anything like that besides people like
you who are watching videos like this.
We just saw the White House release
their little news app, right? And that
could easily turn into something else.
My concern is that if we get some sort