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i sold everything

35m 23s7,241 words1,010 segmentsEnglish

FULL TRANSCRIPT

0:00

recession or not here i come hey

0:02

everyone me kevin here in this video i'm

0:03

going to give you the exact details of

0:06

what i think about the market where we

0:08

are now whether i think it's by time or

0:10

sell time and i'm also going to tell you

0:12

about exactly what's going on with my

0:13

portfolio whether it's stocks or real

0:16

estate now every time i make a move you

0:19

all know that every one of my moves is

0:21

broadcast first to my course members in

0:23

either our private live streams or via

0:25

alerts that i send and you get a

0:27

lifetime access to those programs when

0:29

you join and you want to join now before

0:31

july 28th because that is when we have a

0:33

massive coupon expiration coming up so

0:35

mark your calendar for that but let's

0:37

get that out of the way and now focus on

0:39

what we want to talk about in this video

0:40

which is number one i've gotta address

0:43

inflation because if you have a

0:44

different belief about inflation then

0:47

you're not going to want to model

0:49

yourself after this opinion and of

0:51

course i can't give you personalized

0:52

financial advice this is just education

0:54

to try to help you see okay how do i

0:57

believe these perspectives fit into my

0:59

investing thesis then i'm going to talk

1:01

to you about what i think about

1:02

investing in this time i'm going to talk

1:04

to you about what i think is happening

1:06

in the market have we hit a bottom and

1:07

then of course stocks and real estate in

1:09

the portfolio okay so the first thing

1:11

that we really have to address is we

1:13

have to understand this chart right here

1:16

now this is a little bit of a tricky one

1:18

to to really understand

1:21

because it's it's just built

1:23

on numbers that don't actually make

1:26

sense to a lot of folks so let's go

1:27

ahead and set myself up

1:28

actually i like this size right here

1:31

there oh

1:32

there we go we'll set myself up like

1:33

this okay so what this chart is is

1:37

actually just the raw

1:39

cpi numbers chart and that's very very

1:42

important because if we get lost easily

1:45

in the

1:46

nine percent figures and you know the

1:49

eight percent figures and here's how

1:51

inflation works when we get an inflation

1:53

read what we actually get is a number uh

1:56

like up here we'll get a number and

1:57

it'll come in at let's say 300. let's

2:00

make that very easy right

2:01

and so if we are at 300 here and we look

2:05

back at the last july and we were

2:09

sitting at a cpi read of 270 or maybe

2:12

like 272-ish there but just to make math

2:14

simple then we might look back and go oh

2:17

that was a you know 9.8 or roughly 10

2:20

move in inflation right that's very

2:22

important to know because in order for

2:24

cpi to keep going we have to actually

2:28

see that cpi number continue to rise so

2:32

in order for us to get another 10

2:35

inflation set next july we'd have to

2:37

look back at this 300 over here and go

2:40

oh wow yeah now we're at 330 right and

2:43

so that that sort of rule of comparing

2:46

to a high base makes inflation likely to

2:50

go down solely on the nature of it's

2:53

hard to kind of keep building on top of

2:54

building and there's a very fascinating

2:57

thing that happened here take a look at

2:58

this this dip right here was the covet

3:01

dip and so what happened was when we

3:04

compared march and april low

3:07

inflation data where prices actually

3:09

came down or disinflated a lot into

3:12

where we actually saw that base cpi

3:13

number came down when we compared to

3:15

that

3:16

in the spring and early summer of 2021

3:19

we saw a much more rapid increase in

3:22

inflation because we were comparing to a

3:24

hole right and so that was sort of the

3:26

first impact that we had where we're

3:29

like okay we're going to see greater

3:30

inflation from base effects

3:32

unfortunately what ended up happening

3:35

is we had problems on this end of the

3:37

curve which came after you saw this

3:39

flattening of inflation in the summer of

3:41

2021 which is really incredible because

3:43

here we were looking back past the hole

3:46

now and we're like okay now we're kind

3:48

of back to moderating inflation but the

3:51

problem is this line over here

3:54

really got propped up by multiple things

3:57

first it got propped up by delta the

3:59

destruction of supply chains the hyper

4:02

stimulation via stimulus checks and

4:04

child tax credits ppp bailout loans

4:07

money that often went directly into the

4:09

stock market right

4:10

then we saw inflation really pumped from

4:14

delta inflation continued to inflect

4:16

higher probably the arrow pointing here

4:18

is a little bit better because of the

4:20

delta variant or sorry of the omicron

4:22

variant and then of course we had the

4:24

explosive war over here that pushed

4:26

inflation to new highs

4:28

now my expectation is that inflation

4:32

after these three things play themselves

4:34

out will really have no choice but to

4:37

moderate this chart will slow down and

4:40

we'll see this relax towards the end of

4:43

the year now it could be entirely wrong

4:45

and that's why it's important to set

4:46

this investment thesis up as my

4:48

investment thesis is built on the idea

4:50

that inflation

4:52

will

4:53

go down it is propped up by three things

4:56

that will end up being transitory in

4:57

nature and it was really propped up by

4:59

four things right original covid then

5:02

you've got uh all macro then you've got

5:04

delta then you've got omicron and then

5:06

you've got war and that these things

5:07

will pump up inflation temporarily this

5:09

line here and eventually they won't be

5:12

supporting that line anymore and it

5:14

comes down it flattens which is the same

5:16

thing that we saw happen in the summer

5:17

of 2021 when inflation was starting to

5:19

flat which was great

5:21

i think we'll go back to that but it's

5:22

not just a matter of what i think will

5:24

happen we have two people or two groups

5:26

of people that actually agree with this

5:28

substantially one is the market the

5:31

market via what are known as five and

5:34

ten year break-even yields are expecting

5:37

inflation to plummet in fact usually

5:40

inflation expectations plummet about two

5:43

to three months before cpi actually

5:47

falls well folks inflation expectations

5:50

have already plummeted we are now at

5:52

peak cpi numbers but in two to three

5:55

months we can also see

5:57

inflation plummet so it's not just the

6:00

fact that we're going to see that sort

6:01

of hot air balloon of of heat getting

6:04

pumped up by these three four massive

6:06

cpi pushing events go away those will

6:08

become less of an impact but we're

6:10

already seeing the market expect

6:12

inflation to come down and the second

6:14

one is we're seeing consumer

6:16

expectations for inflation come down

6:18

previously they've been stable now

6:21

they've actually started coming down

6:23

which is really really good and in

6:25

addition to that we're seeing

6:26

commodities fall and when commodities

6:29

start falling then we start seeing

6:31

producer prices fall and when producer

6:34

prices fall eventually so then do

6:37

consumer prices which is very very

6:39

important okay so why is it so critical

6:42

to talk so much about inflation well

6:45

because if you believe that everything i

6:48

just said is wrong then you're going to

6:50

want to have a different conclusion if

6:52

you believe that kevin the line you

6:55

showed us with the hot air balloon

6:57

propping it up at those four different

6:58

points that is going to continue we are

7:02

going to see inflation continue because

7:04

let's say the war in ukraine is not over

7:06

yet we still have supply chain issues

7:09

that's fine but when you look at

7:11

shipping prices commodity prices energy

7:14

prices they're all already coming down

7:16

so just be careful if you think that

7:18

inflation is going to continue to rage

7:20

and continue the argument that that's it

7:22

we're going to have to get paul volckerd

7:24

well folks you probably are going to

7:27

miss out on gains in this market

7:30

so that actually makes me bullish that

7:32

this temporary inflation we're seeing is

7:34

an opportunity to buy and that we're

7:36

still not seeing the characteristics

7:38

that we really need to have to suggest

7:40

that we will definitely get paul

7:42

volckerd in fact one of the reasons that

7:44

i started rebuying in this market is

7:46

because i realized we don't yet have the

7:48

conditions and they could come we have

7:50

to pay attention to them they're always

7:52

little red flags that pop up and i pay

7:53

attention to them daily but we don't yet

7:56

have the conditions for a wage price

7:58

spiral we do have broad-based inflation

8:02

but

8:03

if that inflation only comes for shorter

8:06

bursts of time well as we saw earlier

8:09

the line will mean when we hit the next

8:11

cycle that is in a year from now and

8:13

we're comparing back to these really

8:15

high prices these high cpi numbers we

8:17

shouldn't see those same ones again

8:19

obviously if inflation does end up

8:21

proving to last in a broad-based manner

8:23

then we'll end up having to get paul

8:24

volcker but i expect and we'll see so do

8:27

markets and so do consumers that within

8:29

the next two to let's say four months

8:31

we'll start to see uh what we can

8:33

actually call not inflation but we

8:36

actually call it disinflation and this

8:38

is where we start seeing the prices come

8:40

down so that will reiterate the need for

8:42

us not to get paul valkart and the fed

8:44

has not expected or even expressed the

8:47

attitude that we need to get paul

8:48

volcker although they've started to hint

8:50

at their admiration for paul volcker

8:52

which which definitely gives us reason

8:54

for being concerned that oh no you know

8:56

when the fed starts hinting that paul

8:57

volcker is a great person they did great

8:59

things then you do start getting nervous

9:01

a little bit but fortunately the data is

9:03

siding with we don't need paul volcker

9:05

to wake up all right so that this is

9:08

sort of the baseline that you've got to

9:10

understand because then when you look at

9:12

portfolio construction you want to ask

9:14

yourself well if inflation is high now

9:17

what do you want to do when inflation

9:18

goes down well when inflation goes down

9:21

we're going to expect that the fed's

9:23

rate action is going to come down the

9:26

pressure on them to continue to raise

9:27

rates will come down this is actually

9:30

likely going to create a few

9:32

opportunities the first opportunity that

9:34

i think it creates is we're going to see

9:36

a real estate opportunity because what

9:39

you'll have is you'll have a lot of

9:41

folks coming off peak mortgage rates

9:44

buying properties at uh in let's say

9:48

less competitive environments and

9:49

potentially some softness and real

9:51

estate pricing whether that's from

9:52

between five percent or twenty percent

9:54

uh softness and pricing really depends

9:56

on your market and a whole host of other

9:58

factors but i do think once we start

10:00

seeing uh for the federal funds rate

10:02

stabilize or come down or expectations

10:05

that it'll flatten come down or the

10:07

expectations come in that the rates will

10:09

come down then i think there'll be an

10:11

inflection point in real estate where

10:13

we'll be coming off a season of less

10:16

competitiveness and softer pricing and i

10:18

think there'll be a nice opportunity to

10:19

buy real estate at slightly depressed

10:21

prices and we'll probably have that

10:23

opportunity for one to two years which

10:25

i'm very excited about which is why i

10:27

will be launching a series a that's all

10:29

about investing in real estate you can

10:31

learn more about that by going to

10:33

medkevin.com series a and learn more

10:35

about it there once we have more

10:36

information to share it's gonna be sas

10:38

style slash real estate company uh and

10:41

of course the first people who will have

10:42

the opportunity to invest for an

10:44

exclusive 30-day period at uh the best

10:46

pricing will be course members which of

10:48

course you can check out the link at two

10:49

courses linked down below okay so real

10:52

estate i think will be an opportunity

10:54

but also when inflation and real estate

10:56

and rates that has come down i do think

10:59

we're also going to see a substantial

11:00

opportunity in stocks and

11:03

it's specifically going to start in my

11:05

opinion with a bottoming of tech which

11:07

we may already have seen and then a

11:10

return to risk on

11:12

i would just caution that if you see a

11:15

return to risk on like what we've seen

11:17

in bitcoin prices or even the nasdaq

11:19

which i can show you graphically here

11:21

then you can

11:24

be

11:25

coaxed into getting into money losing

11:27

companies or profit less companies sort

11:29

of more immature companies money losing

11:32

companies aren't necessarily bad

11:33

companies they're just more less mature

11:35

companies so a company uh with companies

11:37

which i've sold at substantially higher

11:38

valuations because i said you don't want

11:40

to go into a recession owning names like

11:42

a firm you don't want to go into a car

11:43

recession owning names like shift you

11:45

don't want to own a money losing company

11:47

that's having trouble getting to

11:48

profitability like

11:50

like lemonade i hate to say it in a

11:52

recessionary environment you don't want

11:53

to own a flipping company like open door

11:56

redfin in a recessionary environment

11:57

these are all the decisions that i

11:58

talked about and made very very clear on

12:00

this channel back in january i know some

12:02

people are like oh kevin like i can't

12:04

believe you would paper hand those names

12:05

well i did and i'm glad i did at much

12:07

higher prices because those aren't names

12:09

that you want to hold going into a

12:10

recession but potentially if the

12:12

recession is now priced in and we get to

12:14

a risk on element these names could

12:16

actually do quite well i mean redfin

12:18

under 10

12:19

and the potential of of real estate

12:21

going through that soft patch and then

12:23

rebounding it's kind of interesting you

12:24

probably see some pretty outsized gains

12:26

at some of the companies that i just

12:28

mentioned if we get back to risk on

12:30

however risk on always and this is

12:32

something you always want to remember

12:34

when you go into a risk on trade you

12:36

always you can't really buy and hold

12:38

these you have to watch those as

12:41

companies that when the markets shift

12:42

you have to be willing to sell otherwise

12:45

you just bleed out and you end up down

12:46

70 to 90 right it doesn't make sense for

12:49

example when coinbase got banned in

12:51

their opportunity to lend from the sec

12:54

that was a big red flag because even in

12:56

my original analysis videos i said any

12:58

valuation that props up coinbase relies

13:00

on them switching to a layer 2 style of

13:03

income and if they can't do that they're

13:04

worthless so you get problems here

13:07

so the problem with risk on trades is

13:09

that you have to trade them right and

13:10

this is where i personally actually

13:12

prefer

13:13

tech stocks like larger tech stocks and

13:16

companies that i don't actually have to

13:17

actively trade i don't like actively

13:20

trading because it's very very difficult

13:22

to actively time the market though

13:24

oftentimes you can do quite well and

13:26

what i like to do

13:28

is i like to use a strategy that

13:31

involves doing the opposite of what

13:33

emotions are and so for example

13:36

if if markets are booming i like to trim

13:39

if markets are falling i like to buy and

13:41

when markets are booming again i like to

13:43

sell now i did this if you go back and

13:45

watch my videos you'll see that in

13:47

november when we peaked i started

13:50

trimming i said this is euphoric i think

13:52

this is unacceptable i shorted arc k at

13:55

a hundred dollars i really wish i held

13:57

on to that short longer uh but i held on

14:00

to that short everybody in the comments

14:01

got mad at me for that how could i be

14:03

such a fudster and short arc how can i

14:06

bet against innovation what an idiot and

14:08

comments really do get to me it's

14:09

problematic i i've really really had a

14:12

hard time this uh the last six to seven

14:14

months but that's not something that you

14:15

care about you care about the

14:17

information and that's fine so we'll

14:18

keep it to that but anyway uh i like

14:20

trimming in times like these taking a

14:22

little ten percent slice off like end

14:25

phase or matterport and gosh you know in

14:27

hindsight you look back you're like why

14:28

take off 10 slices should dump the whole

14:30

thing oh well hindsight right

14:32

and then what i really like doing is

14:34

buying in these areas in these troughs

14:37

and that's what i think we're in right

14:38

now and something that keeps a lot of

14:39

pressure off of me is just every so

14:42

often as i close a property i close a

14:44

real estate sale i get some extra money

14:46

i just buy and that could be in a

14:49

variety of different ways and i'll tell

14:50

you about that that could be in a short

14:52

position that i think is actually

14:54

bullish to what i think is happening

14:56

here inflation coming down i'll talk

14:57

about that

14:58

it could be in a dca into an m1 finance

15:02

pie where sort of have a basket of some

15:03

of my favorite names that i think are

15:05

going to do well we'll briefly touch on

15:06

that as well so i think this is an

15:09

opportunity but again this here relies

15:12

on

15:13

not solely trying to trade i understand

15:16

some people say oh but kevin you sold

15:18

everything you know you sold your

15:19

portfolio in january which wasn't

15:20

necessarily at the top it was probably

15:22

more like here and i probably rebought

15:24

here so this was november where i did

15:26

some trimming i'd probably say selling

15:28

here rebuying here 20 25 later or

15:32

something like that for a lot of stocks

15:33

hey that's useful for covering capital

15:35

gains uh maybe some stocks even lower

15:38

some of them have gone down another 50

15:39

60 from there but some of those are not

15:41

stocks that i want to re-own

15:43

anyway okay so

15:45

in order to do this you've you've got

15:47

and i don't advocate kind of trying to

15:48

you know move a whole portfolio like

15:50

that but i do advocate dumping stocks uh

15:52

that uh you know in january that we knew

15:55

are money losing in companies that that

15:56

are probably going to do quite well and

15:58

had you done those you would have saved

15:59

losses of 50 to 80 on some of these

16:01

right

16:02

anyway so if you believe the market and

16:05

consumers are right that inflation is

16:07

going to go down that the fed is going

16:08

to end up being right that what i said

16:09

is going to end up being true that

16:10

inflation will end up coming down that

16:12

there's just going to be a lag time

16:14

between now where we're at peak

16:16

inflation data and inflation actually

16:18

coming down uh then then you're going to

16:20

want to be ready to buy real estate

16:22

relatively soon uh you might potentially

16:24

consider buying real estate in my

16:25

opinion as soon as the end of q3 uh and

16:29

as early as uh as

16:31

well as

16:32

probably as late as like q4 q1 but but

16:35

yeah really as early as the end of q3

16:37

could be a time to start really shopping

16:39

again and so that's what we're preparing

16:40

for in that series a now

16:43

tech i really prefer because i don't

16:46

feel the need to have to dump it when

16:48

things really get tough because they're

16:50

money losing and i'm uncertain about

16:51

their survivability or whatever and so

16:53

the risk on trades whether that's a

16:55

crypto or you know a more at a startup

16:59

style company you want to be careful

17:00

here okay now

17:02

what am i seeing in the actual uh charts

17:05

yeah briefly and then let's talk about

17:07

my portfolio and how it sort of fits

17:08

into this uh and and where's the you

17:11

know selling everything right okay so

17:13

the first thing is take a look at this

17:16

this gives you a little bit of

17:18

perspective on the weekly chart for the

17:21

nasdaq you can see the weekly chart for

17:23

the nasdaq here has followed this pretty

17:26

gnarly slope down here and we've really

17:28

bounced off that pretty dramatic

17:30

declining chart here but what we've

17:32

noticed here is that even though we've

17:35

capped out

17:36

over here and we've kind of followed

17:38

this trend and we've hit this triple cap

17:41

over here we're now at an opportunity to

17:43

show that this trend

17:46

can actually hold this break right here

17:49

because this is a break of trend and if

17:51

we can break above

17:53

this trend line here for the nasdaq on

17:56

the weekly chart i think there's the

17:59

potential to say that the bottom is

18:01

behind us that is not necessarily

18:04

guaranteed but if the bottom is

18:06

potentially behind us it could make

18:08

sense that we have a risk on or sort of

18:11

re recession relief rally that brings us

18:13

into the territory of nasdaq 338 to

18:16

nasdaq 378 this range this would be a

18:19

retracement of 50 to 78 percent i don't

18:22

believe that we really deserve to rally

18:25

above the 78 percent line and i would

18:27

probably would consider really hedging

18:29

around the 61 to 78 percent line and you

18:32

could write that in as consider hedging

18:35

between 354 and 378 and maybe even

18:38

consider going as far as selling above

18:40

that 378 figure but i do believe if we

18:42

break here we have the room for a nice

18:45

rally which will be very gratefully

18:48

received by many of us now there's

18:51

always the possibility that it looks

18:52

like march which is over here

18:55

which march was really just the

18:56

beginning of a further and larger

18:57

downtrend so we have to be careful about

18:59

this and that you could see what would

19:01

happen over here well actually we don't

19:03

have the fibonacci up for this but we

19:04

just remember that when we compared the

19:07

fibonacci from here to here we did

19:09

retrace over 50

19:11

we did retrace over 61.8 percent and

19:14

that's when we started saying hey

19:16

careful you know we really shouldn't be

19:18

running like this yet we're not even

19:19

close to inflation going down yet and

19:21

sure enough we ended up having more

19:22

bottoms

19:23

now that doesn't mean that i've been

19:25

perfect with my portfolio i absolutely

19:27

have not been perfect with my portfolio

19:29

but i've done what i think is best and

19:32

that was in january selling everything

19:36

to get rid of any kind of money losing

19:38

company any high risk company i was able

19:40

to sell everything and that included my

19:43

tech that included my crypto that

19:45

included my risk on now i did not trade

19:48

into some crypto after that and

19:51

unfortunately had some losses on ada but

19:53

that was a fraction of my previous

19:55

position i just want to make that very

19:56

clear again not perfect when i say i

19:58

sold all my crypto in january but i did

20:00

sell my crypto in january i just

20:02

re-bought and then and then sold again a

20:03

little after that but anyway i'm glad i

20:06

got rid of all my risk on and i really

20:08

haven't exposed myself to a lot of risk

20:10

on yet risk on probably represents maybe

20:13

one to two percent of my portfolio uh

20:16

you can't really see that there so i'm

20:17

going to write it over here risk on

20:19

probably represents somewhere around one

20:20

to two percent of my portfolio for risk

20:23

on not super jazzed about going into

20:26

this even though i think this is where

20:27

larger attendees could be now if you

20:29

really want to play those large

20:31

attendees or sort of upside hedge one of

20:33

the things that you could do is you

20:34

could kind of go for like yolo calls but

20:37

look for companies that have low implied

20:39

volatility like i mentioned tesla

20:41

although tesla's not really a risk on

20:43

play test is more of a tech play but but

20:44

you could find companies with low

20:46

volatility right now tesla did have low

20:47

volatility right before earnings which

20:49

is weird that they had low iv right

20:50

before earnings but anyway yolo calls

20:53

can be cheap then on these and i call

20:54

them upside hedge protection they're

20:56

kind of like

20:57

yolo calls that you make expecting to

20:59

lose money you you put in like half

21:01

percent or or a tenth of a percent or

21:04

one up to one to two percent or whatever

21:05

and yolo calls and you do that to sort

21:07

of prevent fomo from getting to your

21:09

entire portfolio because like the last

21:11

thing you want to do is let's look at a

21:12

company like a firm which is quite risky

21:14

if we have to continue to see allowance

21:16

for doubtful accounts increase

21:18

unless of course the recession bottoms

21:19

and this is a great risk on play

21:21

going all in on a firm uh might be quite

21:24

risky but if volatility is low and you

21:26

take one percent and you go for a low

21:28

low out of the yolo out of the money

21:30

call and you can you can see a

21:32

substantial amount of upside in this if

21:34

it rallies well now you don't feel bad

21:36

that you didn't go all in on your

21:37

portfolio but now you also didn't expose

21:39

yourself to that much risk right so

21:41

that's what i consider an upside hedge

21:43

again yolo calls you want to look for

21:45

these when implied volatility is low

21:48

and then when we get to higher levels on

21:50

the fibonacci that's even sometimes

21:51

where you can get hedge protection like

21:53

yolo puts

21:54

but again these these risk-on kind of

21:56

plays should be a low portion of your

21:57

portfolio and they have been the biggest

22:00

name uh in terms of a risk on position

22:02

that i've gotten back into around this

22:03

four dollar range uh is matterport

22:06

whether through shares or sold puts or

22:08

whatever that's probably one of the

22:09

biggest that i've gotten back into uh

22:11

but i'm also considering uh

22:13

honestly things like especially after

22:15

the dips that we've seen over the last

22:16

couple days things like carnival or play

22:19

uh or win

22:21

or uh or or etsy uh although some of

22:24

these are more you know i would say

22:26

these right here are your risk on these

22:28

are more sort of the consumer staying

22:30

strong or coming back plays that i feel

22:32

like could be a a little weak right now

22:34

but these are trades that i'm keeping a

22:35

smaller portions of my portfolio because

22:38

they're not necessarily companies that i

22:39

need to see in my long-term kind of

22:42

portfolio forever

22:43

instead what i have been using all of

22:46

this dip time as an opportunity to do is

22:48

really build out my tech position more

22:50

and my tech position uh mostly consists

22:53

of tesla i have over 25 000 shares of

22:55

tesla i'm really trying to get i've got

22:57

a personal goal of trying to get to 30k

22:59

shares of tesla i'm not there yet uh and

23:02

you know we've had some increases in the

23:04

pricing here so it just makes it harder

23:05

to get there i don't necessarily need to

23:07

do that though because i'd rather spend

23:09

a little bit of time diversifying into

23:11

my m1 pi now my m1 pi

23:14

the exact proportion is linked for

23:17

course members but it gives you just to

23:19

give you an idea it includes some of the

23:21

travel recovery plays whether that's the

23:23

uh the etsy the the uh you know win i

23:26

talked about but it also includes really

23:28

my favorite and core tech names now even

23:31

though i really think that uh or have

23:34

been thinking that homeowners would stop

23:37

spending as much money on solar in a

23:39

recession if we actually don't end up

23:41

seeing that real estate softness envase

23:43

is a phenomenal company and it's a great

23:45

play i'd love to buy it weaker but

23:47

rather than try to perfectly time in

23:49

phase uh i i sold most of my in phase at

23:52

196 which i bought at like 120. oh well

23:55

i know it's at like 215 now it kind of

23:56

makes you look back and go dang should

23:58

have held but hey you know what oh well

24:00

so what i'm doing with my m1 pi is i'm

24:03

diversifying between companies like

24:05

enphase

24:06

nvidia and uh

24:09

and even like visas in here tesla but

24:11

sort of my larger core position is going

24:14

to be tech which will include apple even

24:17

microsoft plays like that my core tech

24:19

plays and the reason i find my core tech

24:22

place to be so critical is because these

24:24

are companies that i don't really feel

24:25

obligated to dump uh during during duff

24:28

tough times

24:30

and although i made a trade in january

24:32

got back in in march and april uh and

24:35

the end of february these are not trades

24:37

that i ever really feel like i have to

24:39

be concerned about where in 10 years do

24:41

i really think i'm going to look back at

24:42

tesla and phase in nvidia and go oh darn

24:45

wish i sold those because they ended up

24:46

losing money probably not apple

24:48

microsoft right these are not companies

24:50

i'm really worried about in the next 10

24:51

years so you can kind of set and forget

24:53

them that's unlike remember a company

24:55

like that's very risk on like a lemonade

24:57

or shift or a firm where if you set it

25:00

and forget it you could really get

25:02

burned those are not set and forget

25:03

kinds of plays because they're they're

25:05

emerging companies they're very risk on

25:07

companies so i've really been building

25:09

my portfolio here

25:10

with uh the tesla the nfa nvidia and now

25:13

since prices are starting to kind of

25:15

rotate up a little bit i've got a good

25:17

position in tesla really diversifying

25:19

into this m1 trade uh and and that gives

25:22

me an opportunity to sort of diversify

25:24

again but the next thing that i'm also

25:26

doing is i'm shorting the dollar i've

25:28

been buying udn as soon as the dollar

25:31

broke parity with uh the euro uh that is

25:33

the the the euro uh fell under a dollar

25:36

which was quite remarkable i i bought a

25:39

large short position and i'm going to

25:40

keep adding to this uh as we kind of

25:42

move and dca into this a little bit here

25:44

although when i say dca it implies it's

25:46

been going down it's only been going up

25:47

since i've been buying it that is my

25:49

position has been going up since i've

25:50

been buying it which is great and i kind

25:52

of expect it to continue to but i'm not

25:54

going to keep buying it i'm not going to

25:55

like follow this thing up but if it does

25:58

if the dollar strengthens i'll increase

26:00

the size of this position the dollar

26:01

weakens i'll increase the size of this

26:03

position a little bit more but i'm not

26:04

going to go too crazy on this although

26:06

i'm already into this for a few six

26:07

figures and uh and i'm interested in

26:09

getting it uh making my position a

26:11

little larger here so what this is again

26:13

is it's shorting the dollar you buy udn

26:16

it's an inverse dollar etf you're

26:18

shorting the dollar it's an expectation

26:20

that the dollar is probably going to

26:21

weaken the euro will strengthen and and

26:23

really what this is an expectation of is

26:26

inflation being transitory as inflation

26:28

goes down our bond yields go down which

26:30

push puts less pressure and desirability

26:33

on our us bonds which creates less

26:35

pressure on people buying the dollar

26:36

which means the dollar can actually

26:37

weaken now some people are like oh my

26:39

gosh isn't that betting against america

26:41

no it's betting on inflation going down

26:42

which in my opinion is allowing me to

26:44

really have ups outsized bets on on

26:46

betting on america so uh why do i say

26:50

i'm selling everything well uh or or

26:52

that i have sold everything well it's

26:54

because i sold all my real estate that i

26:56

wanted to i i think this is quite

26:58

remarkable but i finished i've gone from

27:00

27 socal properties a portfolio worth

27:04

somewhere in the neighborhood of 24

27:06

million dollars down to five now

27:09

obviously this was leveraged right it

27:11

was somewhere around 55 percent debt

27:13

obviously there are going to be some

27:14

long-term capital gains implications to

27:16

this but the big reason for making this

27:19

transition uh is is uh two-folded number

27:22

one i did not want to go into margin to

27:24

play pay taxes i had an opportunity to

27:28

uh to to buy a really big asset at the

27:30

end of last year but i thought it would

27:31

be terrible in a recession which didn't

27:33

know we were going to go into recession

27:34

glad i didn't do that would have given

27:35

me a lot of tax write-offs but i think

27:37

it would have been a terrible idea in a

27:38

recession so i had to pay my taxes i had

27:41

to pay uh over 10 million in taxes which

27:43

is which is quite insane

27:45

but hey you know what when you have a

27:47

really good year like 2020 or 2021 you

27:50

pay your taxes you have to pay your dues

27:52

i also paid off at every dime of margin

27:54

i have so i have absolutely zero margin

27:57

and what i've really been trying to

27:59

focus on doing is taking my money and

28:01

building my portfolio

28:03

mostly in tech and plays that i think

28:06

will do well when inflation goes down so

28:08

i'd say i'm probably uh 85 i'll say

28:11

about 80 percent in tech maybe uh you

28:15

know two percent over here on the dollar

28:18

shore and this is just rough off the top

28:19

of my head maybe one percent on the m1

28:21

which i really want to build this up

28:22

build this up to like say five to ten

28:24

percent uh and and then i've got some

28:26

cash and then obviously the leftover

28:27

properties that i have which are either

28:29

under construction or the house that i

28:31

bought from my dad that i own or

28:34

the the properties that i'm using for

28:36

living in and for work

28:38

for example

28:39

i was considering signing a commercial

28:42

office lease for our new series a that

28:44

we've got coming up but i really decided

28:46

that i want to wait for softness in the

28:49

commercial leasing space because if the

28:51

real estate market does slow down i

28:52

don't want to lock in a really really

28:54

expensive lease so i'm going to hold off

28:56

on that and i'm going to use a property

28:58

and convert that to an office rather

29:00

than selling that property because it's

29:01

something i already have and it makes a

29:03

lot more sense money-wise so i sold this

29:05

real estate for number one reason taxes

29:08

number two getting out of margin but

29:10

then also uh preparing for that series a

29:13

opportunity i want to have money as much

29:15

money as possible for that series a

29:17

opportunity because i want to throw a

29:18

bunch of money into it too and invest

29:20

alongside either you or course members

29:22

or whatever at uh you know the best

29:25

valuation that we possibly can which

29:26

will probably be just a one-to-one

29:27

valuation like my money will be worth

29:29

what your money is worth but this is not

29:31

designed to be a solicitation so i don't

29:33

want uh to confuse anyone certainly not

29:35

the sec so

29:36

uh these are just some thoughts that are

29:37

going through my mind it's not a

29:38

solicitation for you to invest with this

29:41

so um where do i position myself uh from

29:44

here like what what you know what why am

29:46

i going into tech why am i selling real

29:48

estate and going into tech well let me

29:50

make that clear to me it's sort of a

29:52

real estate cycle play and the idea is

29:55

if i

29:56

get rid of my obligations for taxes and

29:59

margin which i've done never been margin

30:00

called which is great what what happens

30:03

then well i'm throwing money into tech

30:05

which unfortunately has kind of been

30:07

this like furnace this fireplace it's

30:09

really felt like wow i sell a property i

30:12

throw it into tech and then it's like i

30:13

lose all that money and it has felt very

30:15

very bad uh you know going through march

30:18

april may may was probably the bottom of

30:20

the market june

30:22

these these have been rough times now

30:24

we've had some little you know weak

30:26

rally here the last week has been

30:28

phenomenal which is great which finally

30:30

makes me a little happier again because

30:32

i i hope the market is seeing that yeah

30:34

inflation will end up being transitory

30:36

uh so yeah i'm look i'm glad i sold

30:38

everything i wish i waited maybe an

30:40

extra month or two to really go heavy

30:42

back into the market but hey can't do

30:44

that i think i made a good move and now

30:46

i'm sitting in tech and i'm taking money

30:48

from real estate and throwing it into

30:49

tech or that udn short of the m1 pi

30:52

and what's great about that is i really

30:54

believe this and i could be wrong but

30:57

what i really believe is the stock

30:58

market has done this i think we're we're

31:01

either here or we're at sort of close to

31:05

a turn and and i don't know how quickly

31:08

that'll go up it could be very slow like

31:10

a longer u-shaped recovery right

31:12

but i definitely think we're somewhere

31:14

along the bottom i think the bottom

31:16

ended up being 268 for the qqq you know

31:18

we're sitting at like 310 right now so

31:20

maybe that's like right over here

31:22

and for me

31:24

this has just been buy time right here

31:26

as i said i've done and will do and what

31:28

i teach is you buy when there's pain you

31:30

buy when there's blood on the streets

31:32

that's what i've been doing

31:33

unfortunately you get your hands bloody

31:34

too you know everybody's like you're

31:35

catching a falling knife whatever but i

31:38

think that as we see the stock market

31:40

rebound and let's say we're here you

31:42

know 50 oh you can't see that let's say

31:44

we we go back up to uh you know here

31:47

it's a 50 retracement there we go to uh

31:50

to what we mentioned on the chart

31:52

earlier let's say we go back to here i

31:53

think at this time we're probably also

31:56

going to have seen real estate

31:58

do something like this

32:00

not necessarily a giant kind of crash

32:03

but we'll be at that intersection where

32:05

i'll have thrown money into the biggest

32:07

pain point in the stock market hopefully

32:09

ridden that up to whatever the softest

32:12

point is we get in real estate whether

32:14

that's minus five percent in prices or

32:16

it's minus twenty percent of prices i

32:18

think there'll be an intersection of

32:19

those because real estate's so slow and

32:20

it's really lagging behind the stock

32:23

market right now and it's going to give

32:24

me the most capital possible to buy real

32:28

estate and to invest in this series a

32:31

that i've got coming up again it's going

32:32

to be real estate meets sash sas

32:35

software as a service

32:36

and it's going to be really really

32:38

really exciting that it's basically that

32:40

is going to be my life's goal so when i

32:42

say like selling everything and i sold

32:44

all my real estate it's true i sold all

32:45

my real estate uh with the exception of

32:47

those five core properties i'm keeping

32:49

and it's really to go into something

32:50

what what i think is like this is this

32:53

is my dream and i never really talk

32:55

about my dreams on this channel people

32:56

are always like oh what's your number

32:57

like when are you going to retire right

32:59

this is it like my dream is to build

33:01

something for my children to build a

33:02

company

33:03

that my children can work for if they

33:05

want to uh to build equity in a company

33:07

that's mine and not just other people's

33:09

companies in the stock market uh and my

33:11

goal is to to really see something that

33:13

i could take from uh you know let's say

33:16

i don't know 50 million dollars and and

33:19

turn it into a 500 million dollar

33:20

company turn that into can we then turn

33:23

that into a five billion dollar company

33:25

before i die

33:26

right that's that's my dream that's my

33:28

goal so if people are wondering like

33:30

what's my goal it's that uh and i really

33:32

think i really admire by the way is

33:34

people like oh well how are you gonna

33:36

get paid for this or whatever and my my

33:38

thought is i really want to pull an elon

33:40

strategy where uh i i take zero salary

33:43

like if the company doesn't make money

33:44

we don't make money there's no like

33:46

dilution day one it's like we invest one

33:48

to one in this deal right uh that's

33:50

that's my vision and my dream and and

33:52

that at some point in the future then if

33:55

if i can uh you know take the valuation

33:58

from 50 million dollars to 200 million

34:00

after an ipo like i want to ipo this

34:02

thing that's my dream i want to ring the

34:04

bell with this company well then maybe

34:06

they're like some stock options or

34:08

whatever that's that's sort of my thesis

34:10

is like i make money when we on on

34:12

doubles or quadruples right so that's my

34:14

dream and uh and i don't want this to be

34:17

like uh you know kind of like a

34:19

you know crazy like valuation where it's

34:21

like a meme stock or something like that

34:23

i really want to build this as something

34:24

that's like my admiration would be like

34:26

a warren buffett berkshire hathaway

34:28

style just slow and steady you know what

34:30

you want to do you've got the time

34:32

horizon to do it got the skills to do it

34:34

in real estate and the plans and the

34:35

know-how i'm excited so that's another

34:39

reason that i sold a lot of my real

34:41

estate is to really go into that and i

34:43

know some people like why would you sell

34:44

real estate to go into real estate well

34:45

because it's it's going from personal

34:48

real estate into company real estate uh

34:52

and and this business opportunity and

34:54

building out the sas biz whatever right

34:56

so anyway okay there's a complete update

34:59

and all my thesis uh injustice straight

35:02

up chat time you and me i hope you liked

35:04

it if you like these kind of discussions

35:06

you know i like doing things like this

35:07

with my course members as well i don't

35:09

know if uh people on youtube like this

35:11

versus like all the charts and the data

35:13

and just give me the news give me the

35:14

info but i just thought i owed you a

35:16

one-to-one and

35:18

here it is thanks for watching goodbye

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