"WORST Since 2009!" | Why Stocks are Falling.

hey I just wanted to add this in initial

and continuing claims just came out

watch that continuing claims number it

is climbing up to the highest levels

we've seen since the pandemic so watch

that number initials are going to move

every single week last week up this week

down a little compared to expectations

but watch the trend line of continuing

it's sneaking up but for now let's get

into today's news oh man there's a lot

hey everyone good morning me Kevin here

we've got some more problems to deal

with in this video I'm going to talk

about Challenger job Cuts but also I

really want to get to the bottom of the

Trump problem now this is a trump card

problem that I don't think Trump has

really had to face before this video is

not designed to be political in nature

I'm not trying to take a side left or

right trying to provide you insights and

perspective on what could potentially go

wrong here and what's already going

wrong so that way you can observe okay

what could those implications mean for

me my portfolio my wealth my business

everything going forward job Cuts okay

first things first highest total job

Cuts announced since February of 2009

at72 Cuts that's the highest for the

month of February though it's not

actually the highest for any month given

that we had a pretty high month in July

of

2020 uh with substantially higher uh or

more job Cuts within a month now part of

this was of course because of Doge in

fact a significant portion uh was

because of Doge uh but there was plenty

of cutting as well in retail and

consumer products in fact job cuts for

retail and consumer products are up

572 from last year this month this is in

total double the cuts announced last

year at this time highest year-to-date

total since 2009 we're up 33% year-to

date since last year and quote private

companies announced plans to shed

thousands of jobs last month particular

in retail consumer products retail and

Technology Doge was also responsible for

a substantial portion with uh you know

layoffs and and cancel government

contracts the sort of KnockOn effects

right so this is not a great report it's

a report that uh is slowly moving up and

slowly getting worse uh but it's a

report that we kind of anticipated would

come in a little dirty the problem with

it is you're starting to get some of

that pain on that retail side as in

business side

now why could that be well two potential

reasons here number one businesses

acknowledging that the optimism that we

had before the election isn't turning

into

sales at that point those companies

rather than announcing plans to hire end

up laying off right because they're

taking it in the margin due to higher

producer costs and then they have to lay

off to try to stay in business this is

very normal there's a second potential

though and that's that that a lot of

businesses are still very optimistic in

fact this Challenger job Cuts report

indicated that jobs to be hired was

sitting at

4,669 now that's you know a fraction of

the 172 that we just cut but that

announced jobs to be hired section is

actually sitting up at the highest level

since February of 20122 so how do you

put those pieces of the puzzle together

some businesses are suffering and

they're laying off obviously do is

contributing to Cuts affecting these

numbers how is it possible that some

businesses are still wanting to hire

well that's because I believe layoffs

don't all come at once they come like a

disease I like to use covid as an

example because it's just an example of

how we're all familiar with how rapidly

that can spread uh so think back to 2021

think about the businesses laying off

now as being the businesses around the

Wuhan flea market and in Seattle because

a cruise ship just arrived you know or

Manhattan right those are sort of the

businesses that like oh crap the the

sales have really taken a hit time to

lay off obviously making an analogy here

now other businesses like maybe those in

Ohio or Texas like we don't got that

stuff over here we're still optimistic

we're still hiring but it's

coming so uh that's that's my read of

this report now something that could add

fuel to the fire of this is people

saying no to Donald Trump Trump now

Donald Trump is not used to people

saying no to him that's because he's

been a very powerful person his entire

life first obviously with a small loan

from his dad the drum Empire remember

Donald Trump actually changed his last

name from drum which is Dru mpf I think

it was like Dutch or German or something

like that uh to Trump uh smart move but

anyway excuse me so he's always had a

lot of clout first it was dad's clout

then he built his own clout I'm not here

to shade him for that I'm just saying

he's always been used to having the

cards right the trump card as ivanka's

book is called okay so it's been easy

for Donald Trump to negotiate from a

position of power in his

businesses when it comes to the US

economy the US economy has always been

one that could negotiate from a position

of power because it's always been the

strongest economy in the world by a fact

of two well what happens and we don't

know the answer to this because I think

it rarely happens when everybody else

starts saying no to us now this is

interesting let's go through this first

zilinsky apologized after being

castrated during the Trump Oval Office

meeting saying he was ready to work with

Donald Trump and work on that mineral

deal Donald Trump and the Trump

Administration apparently were looking

for a video apology uh to essentially

use it to celebrate Victory however

since then zalinsky apparently secured

sub substantial funding for missiles and

weapons from the European commission a

group of European countries including

countries like Finland the United

Kingdom Greece Croatia you know

obviously the non- country uh such as

NATO uh and others now a lot of trump uh

and and and you know supporters of this

move say good let Ukraine be funded not

by American taxpayer money but instead

by the people who are most affected by

that security issue the people of

Europe great

that's a fair argument but it does and

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but it does isolate us from those

alliances so it does come with the cost

every action has an equal or opposite

reaction right sometimes even worse the

reactions others say hey if we don't

have those allies potentially in Ukraine

or Europe does that mean our leverage

now goes away because they don't need

yes again many people are like that's

fine we don't want them anyway but it's

something to keep in mind so if that

turns into a no okay that's one no big

deal Donald Trump can handle a no okay

well what about this Claudia shinberg in

response to Trump's tariffs on Canada

and Mexico uh just a a few days ago here

said there will be no more submission

from Mexico that's her quote she

reiterated that they've done what they

can to avoid tariffs more border support

fentanyl tracking support intervention

support uh you've got um cartel leaders

being deported to the United States as a

show of good faith for Mexico doing what

they can then Mexico is coming from the

angle of okay we we're trying here and

Trump imposes tariffs anyway mind you

these tariffs are being imposed anyway

on countries that signed the Trump

replacement of NAFTA the usca which

which you know Mexico and Canada thought

wait

we thought we were we were sticking to

that deal now you want a new deal okay

fine here's a new deal they agreed to a

new deal and then they get slapped in

the face anyway with terrorist and so

now Mexico is saying we're done we're

not doing anymore in fact 80% of the

people that were arresting for venyl

tracking are US citizens so maybe this

is actually more of your problem than

it's our problem obviously people are

manufacturing the fentanyl in and you

know the forest in

Mexico all right that's Mexico and

Ukraine right now you've got Trudeau of

Canada we won't drop retaliatory tariffs

against the United States unless tariffs

are completely rolled back now remember

Trump suggested well the Trump

Administration through letnik suggested

that hey we're going to meet in the

middle you know we'll come up with some

negotiated solution this is all just

Trump posturing and

negotiating all right maybe it is but

Trudeau says we're done we're not

backing down from a fight we're not

meeting you in the m

unless you roll back all of the

tariffs we will have our own retaliatory

tariffs to which of course Trump says

fine we'll have more retaliatory tariffs

this is what a trade war is again

Trudeau says we're not backing down okay

so now this is very

interesting because you've got Justin

Trudeau saying Trump is working to

appease Vladimir Putin and he's stabbing

his friends in the back this obviously

we've already talked about this before

so I just want to quickly mention it to

make sure I don't get comments of people

uh you know thinking that I'm not

mentioning it because you know sometimes

people don't watch every video that's

okay it it hurts my soul a little bit

but that's

okay consumers in Canada and Mexico have

already to some extent started to

boycott American Products because of

this we acknowledge this but that's just

one

issue the other issue is what happens if

this

continues and we can keep believing that

we have the position of power given the

strength of our economy but in the

meantime our economy starts

deteriorating see that's when all of our

previous allies in Europe

Ukraine uh Mexico Canada essentially

have this unofficial Alliance or

unofficial group of hey if we all

pressure the us together we can actually

make a dent now Sarah

Eisen

rehosted on x a very traditional comment

I was a little surprised she did uh but

she quote tweeted how much American

Trade makes up the Mexican and Canada

Canadian economy and she quote tweeted

and said they do not have the cards now

obviously that's a quote of trump in the

zinsky meeting applied to Canada and

Mexico I was surprised because to me it

seemed like somebody who is typically

very neutral Sarah Eisen has kind of

gone all in on one side here here now

I'm not saying there's a problem with

that again this this isn't a political

video I was just surprised to see Sarah

Eis say that but it created an

opportunity for me to look at this and

say okay well wait a

minute yes

individually our cards are better than

any of those single countries or single

problems but what about all those

problems together what if everybody at

the table in a game of settlers of Katon

is trading with each other with the one

goal of ruining you and forcing you to

bend that let that's never happened

before there's a chance you could still

win but it's going to be a lot harder

it's going to be more expensive it's

going to cause more damage and all of

this is fine like the us could Embark in

this trade War if we had a strong

economy an underlyingly strong

economy my belief is that we don't

and that this Market disease if you will

call it the co of the

market is slowly spreading and what

happens as it slowly

spreads is it increases the risks that

we actually do end up falling into a

recession now that'll be

deflationary prices will come down and

not only will it be deflationary but

we'll have lower rates so we'll be

accomplishing a lot of the things that

Donald Trump is looking

for now other countries could go into a

worse

recession but does that matter like if

you lose your job does it matter to you

that two people in Canada lost their

jobs because even you know Premier Ford

suggests hey Canadians are going to lose

jobs because of this does it matter to

you I mean from a political point of

view we might look and say haha we got

them they're losing more jobs than us

their economy suffering more than us

okay what does that do when your

children's 529 plan is now worth half as

much as it was before because of an S&P

you know a coordinated S&P 500 sell off

what does that do for your retirement

what does that do for your business what

does that do for your ability to hire

your ability to make investments your

ability to grow as an American well it's

not good so I'm of the mindset that this

this trade War

Fiasco is not good to start

with but it's even worse if everybody

coordinates against us to say no now I I

don't

know maybe this is a big nothing burger

and it'll all blow over but I think our

economy is way too sensitive now we'll

see yesterday we had a little bit little

bit better uh data such as the uh the

ism data that finally you know at least

at least these these reports were less

bad but one of the reasons they were

less bad was because once again we're

talking about this

enthusiasm of a pull forward of uh

manufacturing demand uh and ordering

demand because of tariff uncertainty

every single comment in there had to do

with tariff uncertainty now again can

all of this tariff uncertainty go away

and could all of these problems be

solved and was this all a major buying

opportunity

yes I want to be crystal clear about

that if all the Tariff negotiations go

away and we end up in a position where

we finally start seeing a path to tax

cuts which would be stimulative great

maybe then we could get out of this