**Watch ASAP BEFORE Nvidia Earnings**

here's what you need to know going into

Nvidia earnings and exactly what folks

are going to be looking for keep in mind

I will be live streaming the Invidia

earnings probably also do the earnings

call that will be over at the meet Kevin

Market live channel so if you haven't

checked out that channel yet head on

over there meet Kevin Market live

Channel go check that out okay so for

now what we've got to do is NVIDIA look

at the numbers here okay this is NVIDIA

these are expectations so first of all

last year we had Revenue of

$0.9 billion a lot of money this company

prints money it's not really worth going

into much of a balance sheet risk

concern here or uh a margin concern this

company makes a lot of money they have

one of the most glorious profit margins

ever because mostly they design chips

they don't actually make them I mean

just divide 44.3 divided by 60.9 you're

at a

72.7% margin and the company is

suggesting that margin could actually

run as high as the mid 70% range which

is phenomenal at some point though there

will be price compression and what I'm

going to be looking for in today's

earnings report is that price

compression under one specific line of

the balance sheet I'm going to be

looking at inventories I'm not so

worried about payables or bills because

they've got cash like

crazy it's unclear to me though that

Blackwell is actually going to show up

in inventory yet given that it looks

like a Blackwell might be more likely to

be delayed than already ready to start

moving to customers earlier at least

that's based on a report from Barons a

few weeks ago who knows maybe that

information is old now but my

understanding is UBS via Barons believes

that Blackwell will actually get delayed

from October to December before it's

ready for shipments and any kind of

delays are just sort of going to push

back when we might recognize that

revenue for NVIDIA Q4 Is Us a really big

quarter for these chip companies so what

you're going to want to look for is in

addition to the balance sheet adjustment

we'll touch on in a moment you're going

to want to look at that fiscal year

growth they have really high

expectations last year was 60.9 billion

the expectations for this fiscal year

folks

$2

billion that's crazy that's not the EPS

number there that's $112

billion is what's being expected that's

high that's a really really big ask so

just be careful the expectations are

high here now the expected volatility

actually is not that high this I think

is very interesting we're only expecting

the stock to move today

7.75% versus the usual

8.5% so if you're playing straddles like

basically options betting here uh you

need uh if you're buying those options

you really need volatility to move the

stock more than

7.75% uh and if you're playing sold

options you want the stock to move less

than

7.75% uh so uh obviously anything can

happen with earnings generally a rule of

thumb when I trade is I don't like to

play earnings because it's either going

to be up or it's going to be down and so

to me those Catalyst moments are a

little rough because you make a lot or

you lose a lot and I kind of rather play

the lines on trading we did a little bit

of line playing on trading today uh in

the stocks and group remember this is no

guarantee uh that that you know you

could get these kind of pnls or returns

this is just sort of like I just send an

alert if I see a trend that's going on I

try to play it if I can make money great

this is my p&l so far today I do have

another trade open so could go the other

way right now that trade is profitable

as well but it could go negative really

fast but anyway my p&l so far today is

60 on nase and that was betting uh about

30 to 50 at a time so doing doing

decently on that one right now hopefully

we can keep that up but no guarantees uh

obviously check out the stocks on site

group we got a coupon expiring on the

31st if you have any questions email us

at safm kevin.com and uh always remember

past performance is not a guarantee of

future results okay so back to the

actual uh balance sheet and this is

where I have a little bit of a concern

so if I jump to the balance sheet on

envidia I'm going to be right here and

the concern I have is inventory what

happen happens if we actually get a move

down in inventory here see inventory

only moved up over the year uh from 5.1

billion to 5.2 billion and I have a

little bit of a concern that h100

pricing has started to move down I did a

little bit of searching on this uh Tom's

Hardware on 2224 that's one my triplets

were born Summer's doing well by the way

thanks for asking h100 chips according

to Tom's Hardware were going for between

$30 to $40,000 and even more at eBay

they said if I go to ASA computers uh or

even eBay I can definitely find listings

for 28k now I'm not sure if those are

exactly the same model so I could be

wrong I I'm not like perfect at

analyzing all these different types of

80 gb graphic card chips uh and some of

the different uh varieties of these but

here for example you could see ASA

computers will sell you this

h100 uh for what used to be a market

price of 44,000 now for 28 now I don't

know if it was ever actually selling for

44 I expect it was and I can't hit add

to card I can only get a quote and talk

to their sales reps here uh so it's it's

hard to see what kind of inventory they

actually have availability uh this does

create some visibility concern right

with a lack of visibility there's risk

and I generally don't like Risk now I

know that sounds crazy when I'm trading

options but the reality is I try to take

profits early and I try to take losses

early because I'm a little baby and I

paper hand things too early sometimes

but that's okay uh so anyway uh for for

NVIDIA how do I personally want to play

this look if it dips uh depending on

what the Outlook is I might consider

increasing exposure a little bit I don't

really love the pricing where it is now

I'm honestly tempted to like take like a

tiny sliver off the table but I haven't

committed to doing that yet I've pretty

much only committed to just not trading

this like I don't want to go in and say

okay I'm going to sell puts and calls or

buy puts and calls I really whatever

happens happens I will cover it live but

it's it's way too much of a gamble for

me anything could happen here and part

of the problem is you had a little bit

of this this red flag from Amazon now uh

Amazon's red flag some people tried to

water this down a little bit and Amazon

spokesperson tried to water it down

they're basically like hey hey you know

financial times did a piece and said

Amazon canceling their h100 orders and

they're going for the Blackwell orders

Amazon then has a spokesperson come out

and say hey hey we're not cancelling

orders what are you talking about no

we're doing great we just want the new

stuff and so I had this explanation on

the uh Market live Channel this morning

where I said look here's the reality of

how you have to look at this when and

I'll give you the quick scoop on this

when AWS at the start of the revolution

of AI says we're going to go from 100 AI

servers to let's say you know thousand

servers then uh what what you really

have to do is say okay got it so you're

going to increase your server capacity

substantially and then not only are you

going to increase that capacity you want

to keep it growing okay you basically

ramp and you're willing to buy the h100s

at a premium the reason you're willing

to buy the h100s at a premium is because

you're able to make money bigly on it

right that's why you're willing to pay

for it um uh hold on one second here out

on that

Candlestick uh at uh boom uh out at 130

I just had to send a quick alert I just

had a a limit hit that I went into that

for what was that trade that trade went

in uh oh let's

go uh that trade went in at a buck on

500

contracts and uh I just pumped

uh the p&l with that trade again this is

no guarantee that everybody who who

follows and I don't recommend people

follow trades can do the same thing

remember I'm also trading with a large

account but that trade I had 500

contracts in

at uh 101 101 500 contracts so it cost

me

50,500 and I sold at 130 was my average

out so

65 so that's 14,5 00 bucks or so there

while filming let's go I might re-enter

that uh might uh re-enter watching I

think the trend will be

down okay uh okay so um back to sorry

this is that was very distracting it's

totally my fault but anyway uh it's

really important to remember this right

here that when they're

ramping they like people are going to

buy these chips for a bigger price

people going to be willing to pay

because of the money they can make with

these servers is greater than the cost

of acquiring these chips now the problem

is if they say hey this year in 2024

we're going to go from let's say I'm

making these numbers up a th000 servers

to a th000 servers in other words we're

not going to grow we're just going to

wait for Blackwell it kind of

implies that uh you're no longer

increasing that AI expansion and growth

is slowing and there are two potential

explanations for that either Amazon

sucks or AI demand is slowing and the

bubble is popping now because I don't

want to offend Nvidia people I want to

make it clear that let's let's just make

an extreme example here and let's say

that there's a 99% chance that AWS just

sucks and a 1% chance that the AI bubble

is starting to

turn there is still a nonzero chance

that the AI bubble is starting to turn

again I'm I'm not here to be bearish on

Nvidia like I have a good chunk of my

personal portfolio exposed that's

exposed to equities a good chunk of it

is exposed to Nvidia so this sucker goes

down I'm losing money if this sucker

goes up I'm making money like I want to

be clear on that I'm not having trades

going into it if it goes up I make money

so I want it to go up like I I want it

to go up I really do

uh but uh you know somebody else

commented they said well this isn't bad

for NVIDIA because $100 of the Grace

Hopper Revenue will just end up going to

the Blackwell

chip this is true but you have to

remember something that's delayed

revenue and it means the existing Grace

Hoppers may lose value and so that could

be a red flag of waning server demand so

I just I just be careful uh that uh I I

I don't know that I could speculate that

this thing is going to go uh to you know

1,00 bucks like some people are

speculating

uh but I also can't like long-term bet

against Nvidia because even when these

prices normalize which they will the

company's

still going to probably print money with

its profit margins and the profit

margins I really like look at for

example Verve just as a comparison so if

I go to ec.com I go to verti you look at

ver manufacturing their stock has

outperformed NV videas but the problem

with them is they're only growing at

like 10% nid is forecasting basically a

double and their gross profits are

really only growing because they're able

to raise prices but in their earnings

call they're not actually that

enthusiastic about being able to raise

prices in fact I looked at their

earnings call last night and I'll I put

a couple did I put a screenshot up of it

no I didn't it's right here okay

pdfx so if I go into the ver of earnings

called uh here it is

and okay here it's not okay I don't know

where I put it uh let me see if I can

find it here but the point is the verive

earnings call kind of

suggested that hey um you know we don't

really want to get into what we're going

to do with pricing we're not like

entirely confident of exactly what's

going to happen with pricing oh I got it

I highlighted a few places and so you

kind of make what you want of this right

we anticipate orders will remain strong

but I want a caution 60% order growth is

not the new expect a there are reasons

specific to q1 that support a very high

level of order growth including comps uh

compared to last year and uh uh you know

don't be surprised to see orders go down

in Q2 they they literally say that and

so this is a company that supplies

cooling equipment uh liquid cooling

equipment to uh chip designers like

Nvidia so they Supply liquid cooling to

Nvidia and expect to participate mind

you in the Blackwell so a lot of people

are like oh yeah ative is the next play

on Blackwell I don't know man I know the

stocks outperform but it just screams a

little bubbly to me because people are

forecasting that their bottom line is

going to grow like 25% a year for the

next four years with 10% margins you

know bottom line margins at like 10% 10

to 133% I don't think so but again maybe

I'll be wrong because if they do grow

25% they're only at a 1.67 Peg and

that's vert VRT I think is their ticker

um but other wise I feel like the reason

it's going up is because it's been going

up it's my take anyway uh make sure to

join me on the market live stream uh and

remember if you do decide to join the

socks and psychology money group or any

of the other courses they're designed

for

Education my screenshots of my p&l are

not a guarantee that you'll be able to

pull off the same thing don't copy the

trades the idea is to teach you where

the lines are to teach you how to find

Trends and then I point them out when I

see them and I really try my best to

just be transparent uh yes obviously

knock on wood right now we're doing well

that wasn't the case and there was a

period of the time this year where I was

negative uh so uh that could totally

happen again but um I'm really happy

with the last month again that not

implying that uh it will continue to be

that way I'm just going to try to do my

best Fair disclosure but anyway thank

you so much for being here I love you

all I really do I really do care about

everyone's success and that's why I want

to be as transparent as possible thanks

so much for watching we'll see you in

the next one bye why not advertise these

things that you told us here I feel like

no nobody else knows about this we'll

we'll try a little advertising and see

how it Go congratulations man you have

done so much people love you people look

up to you Kevin P there financial

analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always

great to get your

take even though I'm a licensed

financial adviser licensed real estate

broker and becoming a stock broker this

video is not personalized advice for you

it is not tax legal or otherwise

personalized advice tailored to you this

video provides generalized perspective

information and commentary any third

party content I show shall not be deemed

endorsed by me this video is not and

shall never be deemed reasonable

sufficient information for the purposes

of evaluating a security or investment

decision any links or promoted products

are either paid affiliations or products

or Services we may benefit from I also

personally operate an actively managed

ETF I may personally hold or otherwise

hold long or short positions in various

Securities potentially including those

mentioned in this video however I have

no relationship to any issuer other than

house act nor am I presently acting as a

market maker make sure if you're

considering investing in house to always

read the PPM at house.com