The Truth about Selling | The Coming Recession

everyone be Kevin here okay so some

people were reading into my last video

that had the words sold in the title and

they're like oh my gosh here's Mr

fudster Kevin oh my gosh here's Mr flip

flop traitor Kevin who sells everything

again uh so what I thought in this video

is I would do a portfolio update after

having paid taxes which was a big F and

a big L depending on how you look at it

actually it's probably both but anyway

uh first I wanted to mention a few

things about sort of my thesis on the

market because I think some folks think

that uh you maybe embarrassed when I'm

not because I really am not I mean here

come come with me so first of all here

here are the negative catalysts that we

have

the yield curve inverted for literally

like 36 hours okay big deal who cares

we've got a rising 10-year uh this is uh

this is a problem mostly in my opinion

for Real Estate but real estate

eventually will trickle to the consumer

see the consumer might still be strong

today and this is this is the biggest

problem okay so whether you're a bear or

a bull this is a sincere problem the

consumer is

uh not certain to be uh forever

confident if home values fall now 66 of

individuals maybe 64 of individuals are

homeowners so you've got that other like

35 36 percent but a lot of people are

homeowners home values start falling

people start spending less money it's a

problem I suspect though that people

won't necessarily just overall spend

less money I think people will spend

less money on their homes which impacts

Lowe's Home Depot and end phase and

solar and companies like that right I

actually personally think that in

addition to supply chain issues that

could be potentially one of the issues

we're seeing slower solar deployments at

solar but that might be a reach that's

to come stay tuned uh and and I

mentioned as well in January that this

is we're going to see a rotation to

Consumer stables and commodities and

that's what we've seen now I'm

personally not a big fan of investing

Commodities because you know that I like

being able to take the opportunity of

buying the dip in my Longs and I don't

actually like trading that much I like

buying more of my lawn so these are

issues housing's an issue the PPI huge

disaster and we know the PPI the CPI we

know these vastly understate the actual

inflation we're seeing I mean just

consider CPI for example you've got the

fact that we use owner's equivalent

rents which is literally like a survey

of homeowners like hey how much do you

think you could rent your property for

it's like the stupidest thing ever

because it way likes and first of all we

know rents have done this while home

prices have done this so it's like uh

duh obviously we're going to have a huge

CPI differential there that's a massive

lighting indicator but uh then we also

have this this stay-at-home issue

Shopify

Etsy Netflix these are all stocks that I

don't own I've previously owned Etsy I

used to love Etsy but as I've said I've

rotated out of consumer discretionaries

because it's not the place to be right

now and I'm investing more in sort of

the upper echelon of consumer

discretionaries which I consider Tesla

really and eventually I think it'll be a

stable but anyway stay at home is

obviously getting wrecked I mean we saw

the Netflix numbers we don't have to go

through it again and we know we have

these really ugly catalysts I mean if

you really add one over here you have uh

April 18th which uh was tax day I mean I

paid nine and a half million dollars of

taxes it's it's ridiculous that saps

purchasing power I mean if at the end of

last year I you know bought a big

property or bought a plane or something

stupid I could have paid no taxes and I

would have had more money to invest in

the market right but most people pay

their taxes on me too uh and so

unfortunately that's what I do but

anyway now we've got earnings and

unfortunately we're led by a bank

earnings which were good we were led by

uh Procter Gamble which was good and

Tesla which was honestly unfathomably

amazing I cannot believe Tesla's not

only growing at 50 but it's projected

now thanks to Elon although he has Rosy

projections it's been potentially be

growing at a 60 clip and you have

increasing margins in in this sort of

environment insane but anyway uh

earnings are potentially an issue and

we're led by this this Miss on stay at

home but I think we're going to see more

misses on state home and this really

creates questions like honestly Disney

is probably one of those stocks I don't

think I can do it upside down question

mark but anyway is one of the stocks

where it's like I don't know I mean like

their parks are probably going to kill

it but Disney plus could be a total

loser right we have no idea so big big

you know potential like I don't know

over at Disney right because of Netflix

but anyway you've got the fomc meeting

on May 4th you've got jobs data coming

out six you've got CPI data coming out

on May 11th and then what do you have in

between here come on folks May 9th is

v-day

Victory Day I mean you've got a sh-9t

show coming up of catalyst it's terrible

you I mean like come on earnings either

come in acceptable and they meet

expectations or they miss it's a

disaster like beats don't exist in this

market so you've got a lot of reasons to

be bearish and I don't blame anybody for

being a bear I was a bear in January

back when I thought the Fed was egg in a

rug pull us I thought we were going to

get a one to two percent rate hike I

thought they were going to force a

recession why because we had a wage

price spiral in January that wage price

spiral is actually revised away in

February we had War which reiterated the

belief that maybe we shouldn't push for

a recession because maybe consumers will

spend less although ironically consumers

have been spending more and the FED

actually changed to a little bit of a

game-changing dovish tone which is

shocking because they've become very

aggressive as of December right those

minutes that we got January 5th and

worst minutes I've ever read if you just

type into YouTube meet Kevin worst

Federal Reserve meeting minutes ever

you'll see it January 5th terrible which

Speaking of dates reminds me of the fact

that today is still 4 20 and you can get

the absolute best prices on my program

that on any of my programs I'm Building

Wealth that you will ever be able to get

in the future I promise you there will

never be a day that you could get these

programs cheaper today is 4 20. it's the

last day that you can do that take

advantage of that we'll be changing the

pricing in the morning pricing will be

elevating up so if you want to lock in

the best pricing and see me and private

course member live streams and get all

of my updated content in the future

which just uh between you and me and

when we launched uh this new project

we're working on we're also going to be

launching some new lectures especially

in our property management real estate

and stock sections so stay tuned for

those new lectures all the upgrades are

totally free for those programs so check

those out really good for building your

wealth in the long term use that code

down below I think it's cyber Kevin and

that's really because so impressed with

Tesla I still have my wristband on this

is like two weeks old here I shower with

it I

anyway so this is all the bad over here

but but look at some of the good that we

have first of all people keep referring

back to the 70s and 80s and they forget

that wait a minute we we have something

that's very different from the 70s and

80s which is the late 70s early 80s Paul

volckering and the difference is

unanchored inflation expectations back

in the late 70s people thought that oh

my gosh we left the gold standards the

gold standard the dollar is going to

zero if the dollar goes to zero will

ship why would I hold the dollar this is

terrible stupid this is worthless like

inflation is just going to keep going to

the Moon we're going to be wheelbarrows

of cash like the Weimar Republic in the

20s in Germany complete disaster but no

what do we actually have today is we

actually have anchored inflation

expectations University of Michigan one

year inflation expectations completely

flat what do we have for the five-year

inflation expectations completely flat

at three percent I mean this is

incredible we know that consumers

actually think that in about three years

mortgage rates will be like eight to

eight point two percent don't get me

wrong I'm bearish on real estate right

now but I will take that as an

opportunity to go shopping for Real

Estate but I know how to shop for Real

Estate I know how to get deals below

market value so that's that's easy

that's a that's a cakewalk so uh core

CPI fell this is mostly because of the

Manheim index which is the used vehicle

index and then we've got rental lodging

air travel people are still spending

money like crazy which I mean I just

booked a trip uh many trips I mean I

think we're going to go to Hawaii again

we're going to go to Italy we're going

to go to Germany we're going to I can't

go skiing anymore I'd love to take the

kids skiing but it's too late in the

season but anyway people are still

spending money like crazy and I'm not

exempt from that we still want to travel

travel is fun especially after this

coveted nonsense and I've been

exercising more so for those of you

asking about the fitness challenge I now

have a challenge of running four to this

sounds crazy but eight miles a day like

my shins are killing me shin splints

they suck but it's it's great like I

love getting out there again and I feel

the same way about hanging out with

folks whether it's uh at restaurants or

bars or uh drinking at home I don't care

it's fun but covet is over all right I

know obviously covet still exists we saw

that in Shanghai Tesla reopen blah blah

blah whatever all the freaking comments

see I gotta hedge like every angle every

time I say something I have to I forget

who cares freaking losers in the

comments sometimes most of you though

are really nice I really appreciate you

like I see the nice comments and I'm

like man the core audience these are

good people I really like these people

anyway so what do we got over here this

this is probably the biggest thing right

here so

I might not believe this but back in

January the uh president of the

University of Michigan's consumer

confidence uh survey uh said that we

have a wage price spiral it's so much so

that uh they they went out of their way

to say that wait a minute when wages are

growing at a faster clip then inflation

is growing we're in a wage price spiral

this is bad this is really bad this was

one of the main core Theses that was the

reason I made sort of a Titanic video

like oh my gosh we're on the Titanic

right it was terrible uh now fortunately

that turned out to be a a nothing Burger

thank freaking God and we were able to

purchase lower which is also freaking

wonderful but what are some of the other

things we have the five year Break Even

uh The Five-Year break-even rotating

down is uh is is very very huge this is

markets the markets inflation of uh

sorry the Market's expectations of

inflation going down consumer inflation

expectations going down the 10-year

mostly steepening although we did go

from about uh 0.38 to about 0.28 after

Netflix which wasn't great we had some

flattening but generally we're on this

trajectory of steepening let's keep that

trajectory going okay we don't want to

go back to inversion and

and don't remember this but

maybe a portfolio update as well okay

because I have a little bit of margin

right now but I'm going to give you some

clarity about my margin I'm going to

give you a portfolio update but consumer

margin right now is is down 14.5 percent

from October which is really good we've

had a manufacturing feet in March but at

the same time as we had a manufacturing

beat in March we actually have less

Freight and rail shipments which is a

little bit of a sign that consumers are

spending a little less money on things

and maybe spending more money on

Services which is the rotation that you

would expect you would expect to see a

pull towards the extreme of services

over like certainly durables which are

like washing machines and cars uh and

other junk with the exception of of

course Tesla which sometimes people like

oh clearly see exception of tests like

you have anything you invest in tests

that you're just trying to pump it dude

I can't I wish I could pump test the

stock I can't maybe Elon can but I can

only has to do is say funding secured oh

uh but anyway uh look uh consumer

discretion they're going to get hit but

Banks Tesla Proctor and Gamble the

earnings that we've gotten here with the

exception of obviously the negative net

Flex huge freaking beats across the

board here I mean we're killing it with

the consumer so I'm very optimistic now

I promised you portfolio updates so let

me give you one here okay and keep in

mind

use cyber Kevin the coupon code join me

so you when you ask questions to me in

person we can have a dialogue about what

you think about what's going on in the

market maybe what do you think like what

would Kevin do in your shoes to try to

get ahead and get to the next level

whatever hey here's my real estate deal

that I'm in escrow on Kevin do you think

this is a good deal I'll give you my

sincere feedback you all know I'm no BS

I tell you what I'm thinking and

sometimes I get hate for that and

sometimes I get praise for that I mean

it is what it is okay so portfolio

update all right

portfolio update is pretty simple right

now uh I did just get tagged with nine

and a half million dollars of taxes

which is a complete disaster so

tentatively I'm seven million dollars in

margin but I have about

4.8 in cash uh which is very very nice

uh but uh so so that that's a nice

little offset there

uh but if I go uh 4.8 cash minus the uh

seven in margin I'm sitting at about

negative 2.4 cash right now which means

I'm actually in margin which sucks but

I've got some real estate transactions

closing which is nice because that those

real estate transactions were going to

clear out my margin so the point of this

is I'm not trying to Advocate that

anybody get into margin I think margin

is a terrible idea you should not be in

margin of this Market uh otherwise in

terms of a stock position so I'm going

to be clearing out my margin with real

estate and then what I'm going to be

doing is I'm going to be taking the

extra cash and uh probably a large chunk

of my stock portfolio we're going to be

moving this over into a new corporation

which is the metcaven.com series a

opportunity there's not much I can

really say about it right now but if you

go to metcaven.com series a throw your

information in there you'll be the first

to know about it actually right after

course members because course members

are going to have the first opportunity

to potentially invest with me so that'll

be really cool thing so check that out

metkevan.com series a and then of course

if you want to become a course member

metcaven.com join and use the coupon

code cyber Kevin but anyway my

portfolio's really kind of whittled down

to very very few positions so uh in in

anytime I make a transaction whether

it's in crypto or stocks you get an

alert if you join the courses but uh

Tesla 16 000 shares Google 606 Disney 10

000 uh AMC I still huddle my AMC 2520

shares Ada 1 million shares or coins

tokens of ADA and uh 25

000 shares of trade desk that's uh

that's my entire portfolio so my stock

portfolio right now sits about

21.4 mil

my net worth left that's still captured

in real estate is probably somewhere in

the direction of about eight mil that's

a lot of um

uh well I have quite a few properties

that are still paid off in cash that are

like do I want to refinance them or just

sell them and I'm selling them and I'm

not selling them because I think it's a

good idea to sell I think for most

people it's not a good idea to sell I'm

selling them because I want to move into

this new opportunity so uh you know plus

or minus depending on the day's

fluctuations depending on how things

open tomorrow I guess that puts my uh NW

somewhere around 30 which is certainly

less than where it was at the peak of

the market in November but I mean you

know anybody can compare like compare

Kathy Wood and her fund at Peak to

bottom and it's like oh God that's even

worse that's bad but fluctuations in the

market happens so I mean if if you're

having that problem by the way where if

like you're trying to compare yourself

to Peak uh be careful of that because

it's really toxic like it'll eat away at

you one tip I can give you write it down

like write down how you're feeling

crappy about like I wish I did this

write down I wish I did X but I didn't

and I'm an idiot uh take that little

piece of paper put it in a drawer and

and write down even on how you're

feeling about it like I feel crappy

about this or whatever and now because

you've written it down you actually

never have to think about it again

because you've written it down but of

course you know you're never going to

look at that piece of paper again so

psychologically now you can get it so a

little trick hopefully that helps you if

you want more tricks like that I'm

serious you I guarantee you I guarantee

you otherwise email me and be like Kevin

I didn't learn anything but I guarantee

you you will learn something in the

programs any of them uh I would

personally at this point in the market

recommend zero to millionaire real

estate investing a lot of people bundle

zero to millionaire real estate

investing without cyber Kevin coupon

code expiring today a lot of people

bundle that with these stocks and

psychology of money and then usually

what I recommend is like don't don't go

all in right now and get the property

management course yet wait a couple

months get through the real estate

investing course then get the property

management course the property

management course is going to get some

really sick updates within the next

three to six months because our entire

real estate plan is going in that course

which is going to be really cool but

you've got to go through zero to

millionaire first to really understand

that unless of course you're already

exposed to real estate of course there's

a you know entire program of course on

building a YouTube channel as well or

real estate sales company so check those

out like down below thanks so much for

watching look I'm bullish on the market

so to all the FN Bears I'm sorry I'm not

on your team Michael burry go f yourself

and uh thanks so much for watching we'll

see you in the next one goodbye folks

bye