what the absolute f&ck is going on

but the idea of rate cuts yeah so um

we on the committee

have a have a view that

inflation is going to come down

not so quickly but it'll take some time

and in that world if that forecast is

broadly right it would not be

appropriate and to cut rates and we

won't cut rates uh for some reason you

needed to uh email me email me at uh

Kevin meet kevin.com especially if

you're looking for one of those sexy

bundle coupons oh man what the heck is

going on this is absolutely insane job

growth is six percent annualized the

bond market says the vet is going to cut

rates in September with 75 certainty

Jerome Powell says no way we have no

plans of cutting Pepe coin is up

155 you know how many needle Nerf guns I

could have bought for that that's up 35

x in two weeks that means if I put 10

grand into Pepe coin it would have

become 350 000

all while yesterday we're back to a 2008

financial Panic as Pac West was supposed

to be collapsing and becoming the fifth

banking collapse this year with Western

Alliance right behind it being the sixth

banking collapse this year but we're

already in a banking crisis that on a

nominal dollar value is already larger

than the 2008 financial crisis by asset

volume which is crazy and yet what

happens today everything's fine no we're

sash in oil's on four percent stock

market up a bunch to pack West up 50 at

one point up 90 short sellers are

getting crushed I mean it's literally so

wonky out there right now you have

America like yo

get your cash out of the banks

at the same exact time as America's like

yo

invest in Bank stocks

squeeze the short sellers

and me on top of that people are now

circulating videos of nightclubs and

Cave they have a Ukraine full of parties

at the same time as Russian contractors

are threatening to give up because

they're out of bullets

all of this is leading to some crazy

Euphoria after yesterday's Madness

Tesla's up over four percent today two

stocks that I bet on for earnings and we

did Deep dive fundamental analysis on in

our course member live streams are

crushing it today open door at the time

of this recording up 29 bill.com stock

up over 20 at the time of this recording

both plays I sent out alerts to on

course members and with my backed up

fundamental analysis on before earnings

projecting these beats congrats to those

of you who played it and killed it which

reminds me we are raising prices on

those programs tonight because we have a

huge pre-sale going on for the how to

make more money and get sh9t done faster

featuring artificial intelligence which

uh that segment goes live at June 1st

but you could lock in your price now and

get lifetime access but with all that

said this is wild I mean think about

this for a moment because it seems like

there's something going on that hasn't

been explained yet and it's potentially

explained by the fact that maybe there

are two different types of economic

cycles and expansions let's talk about

those two different cycles and

expansions and try to understand those

also quickly because I forgot to mention

it remember if you join these programs

you get a price match guarantee so that

means if in the future while the price

should be going up if it was ever lower

you get a price match guarantee so in

other words you lock in the best price

possible by joining today check that out

okay so let's understand these Cycles

there are two different Cycles when it

comes to an economic expansion number

one there's an income driven cycle and

number two there is a debt driven cycle

and a lot of folks today say oh well

with all this inflation I ain't got no

income and everybody's debts going up

that might be what the sentiment is it's

kind of like Elizabeth Warren telling

you it's greedy price gouging that's

leading to 40 price increases but look

at the effect of price gouging for

example and the data depending on who

you want to read and what you want to

look at but at least 40 percent of the

increase in prices

attributed to price gouging yet then

when a leftist magazine like The

Economist actually investigates the

claim they're like

yeah maybe to some extent but we have a

hard time seeing anything close to 40 in

this explanation because again it's nice

and invigorating to make bold claims

like that but it's often detached from

reality so what is the reality well

let's look at a particular chart that

shows us some reality this is a chart

called real personal income now it's

important to understand that this chart

means it's already been adjusted for

inflation and if you look at this chart

you could see that real incomes are

actually in aggregate across the board

up four percent above

2019. that means incomes are up four

percent above inflation going back to

2019 and now if you factor in the big

spikes that we had in 2022 and 2021 it

actually means the average incomes are

likely a lot higher than more than four

percent up since 2019 that's because of

all the excess savings that we got do in

the pandemic consider this an individual

before the pandemic who had on average

five thousand dollars in their bank

account now has thirteen thousand

dollars in their bank account and while

those numbers were actually declining in

2022 as of q1

banks are telling us those numbers are

going up again which means the personal

savings rate is actually Rising again

very interesting so incomes are higher

savings rates are going up Savings in

other words excess savings and actual

savings are up while at the same time

debt is actually potentially down

now how is that possible well I'll

explain it in a moment but think about

this for a moment all of this matters

because 70 of our economy about 72

percent is made up by what consumers do

with their money

so seventy percent seventy two percent

of our GDP is made up by consumption

well if on average 70 percent of people

in America live paycheck to paycheck

that means half of our economy is driven

by paycheck to paycheck individuals

which that doesn't make you a bad person

it's just a financial reality but it

means that if we have a pie of spending

and all of a sudden that pie grew yeah

we might be spending more money on

groceries and electricity and gasoline

but we're also spending more money on

everything else so we have more money

despite all this crazy inflation

which is pretty remarkable and so now

that makes us Wonder wait a minute is

this driven by debt how is this

potentially the same as just 2008 all

over again where we had a big debt cycle

right we're going to analyze that but I

want to catch you up I want to catch you

up and signpost you so if you stop

paying attention for a moment let me

wake you up and get you right back in

okay so let's catch up with what we've

understood so far

yo people got more money today and

they're technically inflation-adjusted

making more money than they did before

the pandemic that means there's a chance

this is an income driven expansion

but what has happened with debt how can

we say that this is not also a debt

driven expansion because that's bad hint

hint spoiler alert interest rates being

high is bad for the debt-driven

recession not so bad for an income

driven cycle or potentially recession

whatever this is we're in

so let's talk about the debt cycle first

I have a quick suggestion for you

remember that in the next decade the

people who take your jobs when you go

apply for a job or if you get laid off

the people who take your potential work

and your potential livelihood away from

you are not going to be robots they are

going to be other people mastering

artificial intelligence programs to help

them become more productive and so I am

creating and promising an evolving

course on how to make more money using

Ai and become as productive as possible

that's really important because it means

we're going to continue to evolve the

course as new content comes out and you

can lock in the best pricing now to make

sure that you're making a one-time

investment here into yourself that

should continue to provide you dividends

in the long term so again check that out

linked down below now let's talk about

the debt driven cycle this is a big deal

this idea that we could have a debt

driven cycle like Ray dalio talks about

so let's Analyze This

so

if we have a debt driven cycle then we

should see similarities and charts to

what we saw in 2006 and 2007. well you

actually saw in 2006 and 2007 though was

real income actually stalled out and

then you fell into recession whereas

right now real incomes are actually

rising and even though they took a

little bit of a breather after the crazy

printing that we did of covid we're on

Trend equals up as opposed to Trend

equals flat or falling like in 2006 and

seven so that means the income driven

expansion is still to some extent

Happening Here

on top of that interest rates may

actually have less of an effect on

people today thanks to the differences

in home mortgages consider that back in

2006 and seven most people who financed

a home did so with an adjustable rate

mortgage whereas over 90 percent of

people with Home Loans today have a

fixed rate 30 or 15 year loan which

means they're not subject to these

interest rates Rising usually in a debt

driven cycle you get crushed and then

you have to sell your house because

payments went up you can't afford them

anymore then you lose your job then you

start the Domino more housing inventory

prices fall more people having to sell

at lower values more people lose their

jobs and you have a disaster

today people seem widely insulated in

fact if you look at used cars even yeah

used car prices have gotten expenses but

they're expensive but they're down eight

months in a row

they're down three percent in April

alone and sure credit cards are normally

more expensive but for those who are

paying credit cards the difference

between 20 and 25 percent isn't that big

of a deal the people really getting hit

by higher credit rates or interest rates

are truckers contractors manufacturers

Distributors and people with big lines

of credit that they need to make payroll

see here most people though are not

business owners like those I just

described most people probably listening

to this video or enjoying the income

driven cycle that we've experienced but

again people might say but Kevin

household debt is up though isn't it

well let's make a relative comparison to

2006 and 2007. look at household debt to

GDP it's at a consistent level with the

decade before the pandemic and it's well

down from 2006 the debt-driven cycle of

2006. so in other words yes the

dangerous words quote this time is

different now yeah those are the four

most dangerous words in investing I know

and if I don't clarify that I'm going to

hear it all the time but there are

legitimate differences here now to some

extent that's scary because we don't

know what's going to happen but I'll

break down exactly what you need to pay

attention to to know what's going to

happen we'll talk about that towards the

end of the video

but what about defaults well defaults in

this non-debt driven cycle are half of

what they were in 2006 and a third of

what they were in 2008 at the peak of

the crisis

what about debt payments as a percentage

of personal income so in other words if

you have personal disposable income so

let's say you have a hundred bucks left

after your paycheck on Friday how much

of that goes to debt well we're at about

40 the levels that we saw in 2007. so in

other words you have way more money okay

simple English yeah maybe debt is up in

some level nominal levels but in comes

up and you're paying way less on your

debt than you were back in 2006 and

seven when incomes were flattening out

real incomes

so this economy is one that keeps

surprising to the upside strictly

because of how strong income is the

income driven economy is real look at

the jobs data in the 10 years before

covid job growth averaged 108 000 jobs

per month

during covid we averaged negative 11 000

jobs per month now we're at 371

000 jobs per month on average

in fact we're still well above the

pre-covered trend with today's jobs

report so where is the recession well

some say it happened last q1 and Q2 see

look that's also when real incomes fell

and that's when personal savings were

going down now they're going up again

now other people say don't worry the

higher for longer interest rates will

make it just a matter of time before the

real recession comes and we're all gonna

get screwed and you want gold and cash

maybe so what do we do and where do we

stand now well where we stand is in a

world of uncertainty nobody knows what

the hell is going to happen I don't know

just because I've got a dark green suit

and a blue tie doesn't make me a fortune

teller it just means my guess is as good

as yours but there is something we could

pay attention to right yes there are and

here are some actionable advice for you

first I highly encourage you pay

attention to companies that are seeing

their earnings potentially be

artificially boosted thanks to

year-over-year price increases so be

careful in my opinion and I'm not

certain of this yet but I'm looking at

this hard are companies like Royal

Caribbean Ulta and Chipotle or Nestle

doing really well because in year over

year comparisons pricing is up but a lot

of that pricing was taken in q1 and Q2

of 2022 which means soon we're going to

roll off potentially have flat pricing

and if then volume growth is going on

these companies could end up doing a CVS

CVS is down over 30 percent in just the

last three to six months now part of

that could be because less people are

getting covered boosters or it's because

the growth they had was artificially

propped up by the inflation we saw in

2021 into early 2022. so that pricing we

don't have the luxury of taking anymore

today because pricing gains are fading

even Nestle who bragged about raising

prices nine percent in q1 talks about

soon when we roll over the

year-over-year numbers we're going to be

at flat pricing so then they're going to

have flat pricing and negative volume

growth if their volume growth stays that

the trend where it is now

that's going to be terrible for those

consumer staple stocks or consumer

discretionary stocks that solely rely on

pricing nominal pricing going up at the

sacrifice of volume in my opinion what

you'd rather have and what would be more

of a long-term tell of pricing power

would be a Innovation and investments

into artificial intelligence but also

you want to look at companies that are

growing volumes like crazy look at a

company like Tesla or end face growing

volumes like wild you want volume growth

Nvidia AMD with their partnership with

Microsoft these are companies that in my

opinion you're going to win strongly

massively over the next 10 years

now yes I do understand that wage gains

came in at an annualized growth rate at

six percent this morning that is twice

the federal reserve's wage Target of

three percent growth

yes three percent growth not two percent

the FED targets three percent wage

growth to get to two percent inflation

now that's not great but it's only one

month of data so we don't yet have a

trend of a de-anchoring of wages however

if people are going back to spending on

retail travel and services this could be

a red flag that our next inflation

reports are going to come in a little

dirty

those are actually the critical

inflection points see while Jerome

Powell tells us no cuts are being talked

about the bond market assumes with a 75

certainty we're going to cut rates in

September it's because the bond market

thinks a recession is really going to

take hold in Q3 Q4 which it may

the biggest tell of the direction of our

economy though will be the next CPI

reports which the next one comes out in

five days on May 10th and then the next

one thereafter comes out on June 13th

the day before the next fed meeting

and those reports you're going to want

to pay specific attention to core

inflation X Housing Services now that's

a mouthful but let me give it to you in

English things like travel airfare

hotels maybe not hotels because that's

part of housing by some accounts but car

rentals CPAs accountants lawyers

haircuts services and so on

that's where you do not want to see more

than 0.1 to 0.2 percent month over month

growth if we continue to explode over

there

it's going to be problematic now of

course companies even like Chipotle or

Starbucks do indicate that yeah look

we're still seeing wage growth but it's

nowhere near what it used to be in other

words the availability of Labor is way

higher than it used to be well that's

great

if it starts tightening up again it's a

problem

and then we really get higher for longer

we go into recession but right now we

are insulated the New York Times and I

know half of you hate the New York Times

but the New York Times with a Fed writer

she's pretty good the FED writer at the

New York Times she did a fantastic piece

and she pointed out exactly what I

pointed out two days ago she made an

entire New York Times piece about how

wait a second

Jerome Powell's right we're in an

environment now where jolt's job

openings are declining

but unemployment the unemployment rate

is also declining those never

historically have declined before this

is unprecedented and it actually

increases the chances of a so-called

soft Landing

but in the meantime we have to be

careful that we don't fall victim to

investing in companies that have what I

call faux pricing power nobody wants a

faux PP nobody wants fake PP we want

real pricing power real pricing comes

from volume growth and Innovation over

the next decade not temporary price

increases at the sacrifice of volume

like you're seeing some of the food

companies do or the Staples do that's

why I'm bearish Staples and some of the

consumer discretionaries

so what do you do now well in the short

term you could YOLO into PP or pack West

but once volumes fade over there trading

volumes expect those to plummet as well

so be careful especially once they hit

Peak

Euphoria and Peak virality and then they

plummet they're going to plummet they

always do

that is any kind of momentum as soon as

the momentum goes away the valuations

plot it's the way it works

but let's put it this way after I took

my net profits on a trade on Bill

earnings and Open Door earnings that I

did with course members did have net

profits I've been getting a ton of

comments and messages of people making

money on these trades which is

absolutely fantastic and I made money

too but my belief is that over the next

10 years I want to take 99 of my

portfolio and make long bets on the

companies that are going to win

I don't actually believe that's going to

be Google Now a lot of people get mad at

me a lot of people love Google it's a

staple in many people's portfolio

especially S P 500 buyers so I'm

offending a lot of people I personally

have friends who work at Google

but I'm very concerned because Google in

a a leaked document just out indicated

they really have no proprietary Edge on

artificial intelligence now we don't

know the authenticity of that leaked

report but it makes sense

Google by saying closed source is

probably going to lose to all of the

open source AI data that we have and the

plugins of either chat GPT or Bing and

beyond that anybody who's mastering

productivity with AI I think is going to

win in the long term again that's why I

have a course to get you started on all

of this because there's so much

confusing information out there on like

okay I downloaded 50 different plugins

now how do I make more money no no no

wrong way to think about it I'll set it

all straight I will help you be a more

productive person in your life every

single day

one-time investment it's worth it

lifetime access and price guaranteed but

I am concerned about Google

I am also a very much believer of the

Nike Swoosh recovery people people make

fun of the Nike Swoosh so far it's been

correct and I think it's going to be a

volatile Nike Swoosh but I think over

the next 10 years we will look back and

go damn wish I invested earlier in the

swoosh that's my take so stay tuned

buckle up I am more optimistic than I'm

bearish but I'm also cautiously

optimistic

so be careful with margin consider some

of the things I said about which

companies to invest in obviously this is

non-personalized financial advice even

though I am a licensed financial advisor

I don't know your situation I manage an

ETF I sell courses on building your

wealth and using artificial intelligence

to help you make more money as well as

learning everything that I know about

business whether it comes from Real

Estate or stocks or fundamental analysis

or accounting you name it

if you want to get a head start check

out those programs linked down below

thanks so much and we'll see in the next

one goodbye

[Music]