These Housing Markets are getting DESTROYED.

oh we've got a dirty video to talk about

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sponsored by Lowe's let's get into the

video well if you were in doubt that

home prices are falling have a doubt no

more in this video you're going to see

exactly which areas in the United States

are having the most a pain even though

year over year the case Shiller index

September 2 or I'm sorry August to

August mentioned a 12.99 growth in year

over year price appreciation we are

officially seeing the turn with a now

1.3 percentage Point month over month

decline from July to August and boy

you're going to want to see some of this

data because of that folks is a big

inflection point it might not sound that

large because hey if you're used to

stocks okay you're used to large numbers

okay 1.3 percent though Rivals the

monthly declines that we've seen in the

2009 great real estate crash 2008 2009

it took all the way until about November

of 2011 for the real estate market to

bottom out I know that because I was

part of the bottom of the market not

only as a buyer but also as a real

estate agent and eventually a real

estate broker so let's talk about why

this is important because look when you

hear that hey well come on man year over

year prices are up

12.99 how is that a housing problem well

it's not it I mean it's a problem if

you're trying to afford homes but it's

it's not really bad right but you're

sticking your head in the sand if you

believe that price is going up 12.99

over a year so if we kind of compare

this August to last August we're like oh

yeah that's 12.99 wow great things are

going up sure but what happens when we

start seeing this and all of a sudden we

see oh no in the last month we've

declined 1.3 percent well now you have

what's known as an inflection point and

this inflection point today is brought

To Us by the CoreLogic case Shiller

index which notices a quote continued

deceleration of the real estate prices

and leading measures of home prices

suggesting that data could get actually

worse substantially before it gets

better now this is really critical

because housing is something we

absolutely want to pay attention to

because it affects every part of our

economy in fact a lot of housing related

stocks are actually still not suffering

because the housing market is still

sitting on a lot of equity okay you need

15 declines for the first or I should

say for the people who bought homes

within the last two years to lose

two-thirds of the equity that they've

built you need prices to come down 15

percent put another way since that might

sound a little confusing anybody who

bought a home since the start of coven

is sitting on so much Equity that prices

could come down 15 and they still have

33 percent of the equity that they had

before that that's crazy so if you had

100 or a hundred thousand dollars of

equity because things just ballooned and

then you lost sixty seven thousand you'd

still be up 33k over what you paid right

that's almost enough to pay some of your

selling costs in case you wanted to get

out but the point is the trend is not

your friend in this case and

unfortunately housing is very slow

oftentimes lagging the bottom of the

stock market by two to three years and

this is why I've created a startup house

hack to make sure we can capitalize at

the bottom of the housing market if

you're an accredited investor learn more

at househack.com if you're not you could

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invest we have a deadline coming up by

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their warrants expire learn more about

at this by reading the solicitation at

houssac.com but we have to understand

which specific markets are getting hurt

are these blue states are they red

states are they blue red cities what's

going on and how does this hearken back

to 2009 well remember the highest rate

of monthly declines monthly declines in

2009 was 1.9 the stock market bottomed

out in about February of 2009 and the

real estate market bottomed out in

November of 2011. and now we are in

eight months in a row of home sales

declines with now officially home prices

falling across the board this was not

the case last month so this is the first

month that we actually have across the

board real estate declines let me go

ahead and show you the actual data

here's the data directly from the case

Shiller report what I've done first on

the left side is you could see

metropolitan areas here top 20 City

these that they sort of track and on the

right side I want to draw a pay I want

you to pay attention to this circle I'm

drawing right here you see all these

sort of green highlights I made the

green highlights over here represent

positive uh sort of growth in real

estate prices well over here in this red

box I shouldn't have used green again uh

because those now represent small

declines over here but every

every city in this red box is now

negative whereas over here about what is

that eight of them we're still positive

so 8 out of 20 we're growing over here

and now all of a sudden all of them are

red every single city is now red

and I'm not talking about politically

right okay I'm talking about price

appreciation I'm down in the gutter and

if it stresses you out don't worry Met

kevin.com Life Insurance you can sign up

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it's a five percent battery anyway so

let's look at some of the biggest

declines here Atlanta folks point four

percent not that big of a deal where are

we getting hit the hardest look at the

red highlights it's the West Coast folks

Phoenix which isn't really the coast but

it's more West than Florida obviously uh

San Diego Super Democrat right San

Francisco Uber Democrat Seattle 30

Democrat 3.9 4.3 2.8 percent now I don't

necessarily think this is an argument

about politics I do don't think that

these are areas that blew up on the tech

bubble which tends to be a little bit

more democratic so again this has really

I think little to do with politics

although there are folks who are going

to draw that parallel especially

Republicans so you'll be like of course

it's the blue States screwed don't worry

everybody's getting screwed so you got

your cover too but anyway the point here

is these are markets that really got hot

really fast during that sort of attack

bubble Tampa actually only down 1.5

percent I've got some great connections

to Tampa I've met so many wonderful

people over the last few months in Tampa

we've got uh Miami look at that only

down point one percent as you've

actually got foreigners still coming to

Miami to park money in Miami because

they believe their money is worth more

in potentially depreciating real estate

in Miami than it is in El Salvador's

Bitcoin or in Brazil or Venezuela or

Cuba or whatever and I mean you can't

really blame them because Miami is

freaking awesome you've got not that

Citadel is awesome we got Citadel

spending probably somewhere around a

billion dollars building an office

complex down there moving developers out

there Kathy Wood move down there

Miami's awesome I was just there I went

on the uh Anthony

podcast dude great guy okay I've

invested with him before in private

Capital uh private Venture Capital hey

maybe he should invest in house hack too

I should hit him up for that but anyway

a great guy go check out the podcast it

was fun podcast anyway look at some of

the other declines here okay negative

1.9 Dallas Denver negative 2.3 percent

losing Angeles negative 2.3 Vegas

negative 1.2 percent Atlanta Chicago

these areas holding up only about half

percent declines here Detroit I didn't

know prices could get any cheaper if you

want to see some cool videos type into

YouTube meet Kevin Detroit fire and meet

Kevin Detroit okay really amazing videos

watch those videos you'll love them I

promise you will not regret uh the

Detroit videos maybe not necessarily the

fire one the fire one's more

entertainment but it kind of shows you

what goes on out there it's very sad and

I guess I shouldn't call it entertaining

that's pretty insensitive but but it's

it's less educational than the other

Detroit video okay gosh man you gotta be

so careful about what you say these days

maybe if I had an editor this wouldn't

be that big of a problem oh well anyway

so uh yeah let's take a look at this

because uh these uh these things uh hurt

because when you look at non-seasonally

adjusted versus seasonally adjusted

again uh on the June to July levels you

have lots of green over here that is

still positive everything over here is

now red I want to clarify again that

even though I stupidly use green

highlighting over here nothing over on

this side is green so ignore that uh 10

year treasury yield now this is

remarkable okay because this report is

from August this case Schiller report is

from August now why that's really

important is because when you actually

look at the 10-year treasury yield which

is obviously what mortgage is uh

relatively closely follow this is where

we were at the end of August okay so

August really benefited from almost what

was deemed a trough over here in fact if

you kind of draw a circle around over

here you really have a low era here of

rates in Late July and August early

August who had low rates and they were

just starting to rise again and uh that

era ended right here where that red X is

and unfortunately since then well folks

I mean you could uh clearly see the uh

the trend here and the trend again not

your friend right now although in the

last couple days it has come down

slightly especially after that Google

earnings Miss we've come back down to

just under 4.1 percent uh but honestly I

wasn't expecting it to cross four

percent and there are a lot of people

calling forward to go to five percent so

oh dear uh here's just graphically how

you can see on some charts you've got

areas starting to inflect down this is

kind of similar just to what I've shown

you even Miami showing the inflection

point down Tampa showing the inflection

point down here's uh sort of some more

supporting data on the indices overall

moving down but if I know the

interesting things to look at is one of

these comments here the forceful

deceleration in the U.S how in U.S

housing prices that were noted a month

ago continued given the continued

prospects for a challenging macro

economic environment home prices May

well continue to decelerate yeah

decelerate is uh maybe the word that you

could use now when you're looking at

year-over-year numbers in other words a

slowing appreciation but don't worry

they'll be going in reverse pretty soon

because well they already are so that's

not even Financial advice that's just

being obvious they're going backwards

prices are going down which maybe

creates an opportunity for you to get

into real estate at some point in the

future but the problem is it's harder to

qualify for a home so if you want to

know all the tricks of the trade that is

from somebody who's been doing real

estate for over 12 years not only as a

real estate broker but as a real estate

investor I was a licensed lender at a

time a licensed contractor at a time you

want all of that experience in one

bundle licensed property manager you

name it go check out the zero to

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well thanks so much for watching and

we'll see in the next one thanks goodbye