WARNING: The Jobs Data is COOKED

Well, jobs data is just out and we just

hit a 4-year high on the unemployment

rate, 4.6% on the unemployment rate. We

did get 64,000 jobs, which is eerie

because Powell told us that we should

minus 60,000 from monthly jobs reports.

And then it's even worse if you realize

that 64 of a gain is 2 months of data.

So, if you take 60 off 64, you're at

just 4K jobs after revisions per. If you

divide that by two, you got 32K. take

off 60 of each of those, you've actually

got -28,000 jobs on each of two months

here. Uh, if you use the Powell data,

now Powell might be getting a little bit

nervous because of what Nick T is

talking about. Nick T is warning that

the unemployment rate on an unrounded

basis has already moved 12 basis points

and specifically points out that last

week Powell said that he thought policy

should make it so that the unemployment

rate stabilizes or only kicks up one or

two more tenths. Okay. Well, we

literally just moved up a full tenth. We

moved up 12 basis points which is even

more than one/10enth. uh and the

trajectory isn't good. We're seeing this

unemployment rate rise in part because

the labor force participation rate has

started rising. Now, the labor force

participation rate is an interesting one

because the beverage curve can really

normalize very rapidly if the

participation rate starts normalizing up

again. Now, to understand what any of

that jargon means, you really have to

look at the chart of the labor force

participation rate over the long term.

So, as you can see, labor force

participation has really plummeted since

2010. A lot of people say this is

because the stock market wealth has

really skyrocketed and older folks have

been able to have the luxury basically

of retiring off the jobs market. This is

actually a really big concern that some

institutional analysts on Wall Street

have that if for whatever reason there's

a stock market correction then a bunch

of the excess retirees after co so this

like two this difference right here this

delta right here of why are we averaging

so much lower on participation compared

to here well some say a lot of this has

to do with excess retirees who basically

retired because they're rich boomers off

the stock market or off real estate

wealth and so some people argue that if

the stock market rolls over, those

excess retirees are going to have to run

back to work. And if you add 2 million

people and put them back to work, our

unemployment rate is going to skyrocket

to 8 9 10% very rapidly. You know,

especially with the momentum of other

joblessness compounded with that. So

this is a big concern that people have.

And so rising participation rate could

be a sign of stress of people needing to

go back to the jobs market. And that's

why this was unexpected. Uh market

forecasters were not expecting the

unemployment rate to rise to 4.6%.

Again, the highest in four years. Uh and

it begs the question, is this sort of a

new trend line? Uh or or is this just

sort of a noisy blip? Now, keep in mind

this is two months of data and it's not

actually charted here. Uh some worry

that we're going to be back to

triggering the SOM rule at some point if

we keep rising, of course. And this is

probably why we're seeing the 102 yield

spread rise to 69. Now remember, you

could see the 102 yield spread rise to

69 when markets anticipate that the

2-year yield or near-term Fed rates

might have to plummet really soon to try

to prop up the economy. And so the bond

market might be trying to price in some

kind of shock or stress that could be

occurring. Now, if we look at the U6

undermployment rate, we're at 8.7% now,

up from 8%. So, a skyrocketing in the

underemployment rate, which isn't great.

We don't like to see skyrocketing of any

kind of unemployment rates. Uh, and

unfortunately, that's exactly what we

got. Uh, now on top of that, uh, if we

look at black unemployment, which we

have a chart of that as well. If we look

at black unemployment, we'll end up

finding that uh the black unemployment

rate has popped off a chart as well. And

some people call this a leading

indicator. So black unemployment that

was last reported in September was 7.5%.

That has now shot up to 8.3%.

Now mind you, we didn't get a household

survey that was conducted for October.

So, the numbers we're getting on the

household survey are based on just

November, like partial November data.

And that's probably why you've got

Powell saying, "Hey, don't trust this

data." But the household data tells us

that we added 96,000 jobs over 2 months

on the household. It's about 48K per

month. Again, Powell takes off 60K off

of each of those, so still negative. And

the 27 weeks unemployed level is rising.

But what's interesting is if you look at

the details on that household data,

well, we added 96K, we actually put

228,000 more people into unemployment.

So, it's kind of weird how those numbers

reconcile. Some people say that's

because more people went back to getting

jobs. 293,000 increase in people going

back to getting jobs. I don't think

personally when I look at this data that

any of this data says we're falling off

a cliff, but I mean, there's certainly

some problems uh in this data. And so,

you know, we're going to go through some

of this uh in detail. I just quickly

want to shout out, I'm sure you're

already familiar, but in case you're

not, this is expiring at the end of the

month. So, we are not taking investors

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closing the fund raise December 31st.

You get a 5% yield on your money plus

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the conversion to stock only occurs if

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investment. So if you want to check that

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real estate startup house.com or

reinvest. It's the same company. We're

releasing our AI app this month uh and

it's uh it's already a gamecher for the

revenues that we're seeing uh which

we're very excited about. But anyway,

multiple job holders are now sitting at

5.8%. This is also the highest level

that we've seen since 1999. Look at

this. I took this St. Louis Fred chart

and I updated it with the latest data.

So, I put the line in here for us. Uh,

just so you could see the difference

here. And then I drew a line all the way

across. Multiple job holders are at the

highest level that we've seen since

1999. This isn't really a sign of a very

strong labor market. This is kind of a

sign of, you know, people are struggling

out there. Uh, and this is why I think

in part the Federal Reserve doesn't want

the stock market to fall. And this is

why we're starting to see Tommo back at

operations. Uh, yeah, temporary

overnight operations. We'll talk more

about this in a Fed video I have coming

out on uh on Kevin Walsh. We actually

just saw the Federal Reserve inject

liquidity into temporary overnight

operations. We've seen quite a bit of

that recently, but we just saw it again

yesterday to the tune of 5.2 billion.

Uh this has been pretty rare uh in uh in

the past with the exception of recent

history. But yeah, there's Tommo. So

it's not just POMO, it's also to

temporary open market operations. See?

Get it? All right. Anyway, uh so you

know, there's liquidity stress, there's

a weakening labor market. You know,

we've got problems here. Now the ADP

data gives us maybe some hope. The

seasonally adjusted ADP data indicates

that we are moving in uh November at a

four month 4week moving average of

16,250.

Now 16,250*

4 would put us at 65,000 jobs. We just

got a labor report for November at 64K.

So it seems to align with this ADP

report right here. But that 64k again

represents 2 months, not one month. So,

you know, who's right here? We don't

know. This number's obviously been

relatively uh volatile. Now, uh that's

not that's not very bearish though. And

so, as a result, we are still seeing the

uh current estimates for uh the odds of

an interest rate cut in January uh

coming in at 24.4%

which is good. uh we haven't seen like a

big drop uh in the odds of a rate cut

because of this, you know, data. Uh

24.4% still sit there. We're still

pricing in two rate cuts. By the uh end

of next year, by uh December 9th of

2026,

we are uh looking at uh 2.3 cuts is is

basically what we're pricing in from

where we stand right now. So, a little

bit higher. Uh and not seeing a lot of

movement in the treasuries market. We

did also see that uh the uh let's take a

peek here. The 3month average labor

report versus the six-month average

gives us hope. You know, this is Nick T

sharing this that we've got a little bit

of an uptick on the 3-month average

there while the six-month average is

still tanking. Hopefully, we could get

that sort of, you know, runup or

resurgence, especially as that

participation rate is rising and that

unemployment rate is starting to rise,

which isn't great. Uh now uh the uh you

know fact now when it comes to other

data here is we ask ourselves what are

the revisions going to look like and

that's exactly what Jerome Powell has

been warning about. So it makes me

wonder you know did people initially get

excited about the fact that we're not

seeing an indication of a wage price

spiral you know labor only up.1%. Did

people get wages that is did people get

excited about that no wage price spiral?

I don't know. I don't think anybody's

really calling for a wage price spiral

right now. You know, inflation is high,

prices have obviously gone up, but the

recurring inflation is starting to

disinflate and fall. This does weaken

people's real earnings, and that is

something that the Trump administration

has really been bragging about. And

these real earnings aren't actually

really going up. Uh, and so that was a

disappointment in this report. But, uh,

the numbers just don't indicate we've

fallen off a cliff. We're just kind of

right now slowly bleeding on an

unemployment rate that's rising. And if

we stay on this trajectory, we're going

to trigger the som roll. So, we could

see why the Fed uh ended up going for

another insurance cut. And if we get

data like this again in January, we

might be setting up for that January

28th meet Kevin birthday uh uh you know,

rate cut. But um we'll see. So, with all

of that said, uh I think uh what we're

going to do now is we're going to jump

on over to the course member liveream

and we're going to do our Meet Kevin

alpha report. If you're not part of that

yet, make sure to join. You join the

Meet Kevin membership. You pay once, you

get all nine courses, you get every

trade alert, every private liveream,

every alpha report. We do it pretty much

every day when the market's open. Uh and

uh I hope to see you there. So, thank

you so much. Remember, you can also

check out my real estate startup. We

close the fundraising for this at the

end of the year. So, if you want to buy

the product, you can as well, but you

know, if you want to invest in the

actual company, uh, that expires, uh, at

the end of the year. So, go check that

out at houseack.com or reinvest.com.

We'll see you over there. Thanks so

much.

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst

and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great

to get your take.