Why I *JUST* Bought Tesla & Super Micro + Bitcoin to $102k.

[Music]

Bitcoin Tesla super micro we've got to

talk about all three of those let's keep

Bitcoin simple the order book at 990,000

was just cleared which means you don't

have that many sells left it's one of

the reasons why not only have we been

holding 990,000 even through the

geopolitical turmoil that we saw this

morning you notice during pre-market

Bitcoin held pretty stable but once you

clear the 90k psychological threshold of

people selling before 100 because they

are actually skeptical that it's going

to get to 100 it's going to get to 100

next stops about

102 now that might be

bullish for

now but what I want to talk about in

this video is not the long-term

trajectory of what happens with

blockchain technology or crypto Bitcoin

whatever but rather why I just purchased

super mine

and Tesla both of these require an

explanation in the meantime it's worth

noting that uh bitcoin's probably going

to struggle once it gets to 100K because

a lot of people are going to take

tendies around that three-digit figure

psychological reasons bragging rights if

it goes down you be able to say we sold

at three digits human

psychology now what's worth remembering

is that doesn't mean we won't further

exceed 102 that's all going to come down

to the economy and macro Which is less

about what this video is about though

super micro and Tesla are going to have

some economic issues related to

recession as well which I'm going to

talk about hedging towards the end of

the video which will apply to bitcoin as

well so if you're looking for a Bitcoin

hedge just because it is a risk asset

and it's not going to do very well in a

recession if there's a recession I hope

there's no recession knock on W

but let's talk super micro I guess if

there's one more thing to say micro

strategy will moon when even more when

Bitcoin hits 102 but again you get to

recession their Break Even probably

somewhere in the low 40s with how much

they keep buying you could potentially

have some debt issues so I'd be a little

more careful with how much debt micro is

issuing uh micro strategy that is but

hey Michael sailor's obviously done a

great job so let's talk about super

micro first a lot of people look at this

play and they say Kevin why would you

buy Super Micro yesterday which just

happened to be the day before they chose

a new auditor well mostly because of the

fundamentals and what securities

analysis tells us see what's interesting

is if you read the book Securities

analysis they specifically refer to how

companies can become cigar butt stocks

which would be stocks that sell below

their intrinsic value because of

accounting related issues see accounting

is really difficult it's tedious but not

only is it tedious it's difficult

because you have to know how one action

affects another dual entry accounting

and getting good bookkeepers and

accountants isn't the easiest thing so

I'm not trying to put a pass on super

micro but I have a feeling that in 5

years from now nobody's going to

remember this accounting issue and if

you've been listening to what I've been

saying either on my morning live streams

which are free to attend the course

member live streams which you have to be

a course member for or just even in the

alpha report which is also free you can

go to meetkevin.com Alfa and sign up for

that I've been saying that I think the

super micro issue is

overblown and that even if you account

for $200 million of fines penalties

lawsuits fraud allegations whatever this

company's in a great spot just listen to

some of these numbers and you'll see why

I think there such an opportunity of

course this video is not personalized

advice and with that out of the way

let's get into it this company's down

81% from Peak now sometimes when a

company is down so much from Peak it's

because they

suck the problem with this company is

that they're sucking because of negative

momentum enhanced by filing their

financials late yes that's a problem it

is a very bad problem and it's going to

take cleanup it's going to take work and

they probably going to be fines and

penalties but it'll get cleaned up not

only do I think it'll get cleaned up but

I think now the microscope is literally

on super micro to where everything has

to be perfect going forward so I kind of

feel like you're digging them out of a

hole I see it as sort of like buying

real estate below market value you're

buying the crappiest home possible in a

great neighborhood and everybody else

walks through and they're like this has

so many problems right but the people

who come in to fix those problems

knowing that now we've been priced to

absurdity and you'll see that valuation

of absurdity in just a moment they're

the ones who get

rewarded by doing the work or taking the

risk and you're going to see the

fundamentals in just a moment but I want

you to think about that I actually

posted a house hack renovation video

yesterday you're welcome to see that

great neighborhood you know next to a

guy with Tesla super you know wall

Chargers and everything but what's

remarkable is if you look at this you

know this is just an in progress one but

just take a look you know here's a you

know this is what it was look how nasty

this is I mean it's just a nasty nasty

property uh and you turn that into kind

of where where it is now and it's still

in renovation mind you but I'm just

saying to me wedge deals exist in stocks

as well they're just we call them cigar

butts kind of like the you know Charlie

Munger Benjamin Graham and Warren

Buffett

days so I'm a nut for cheap stuff when

everybody else is panicking in fact I'm

kind of known for doing the opposite of

what the markets are doing uh and that

doesn't always do well for you

see In fairness I got bullish on bonds

way too early like you know July August

not a great time to get bullish on Long

bonds because unfortunately they've kind

of gone down quite a bit they're having

a green day today but let's be real

you're just getting a little bit back

I'll talk about why I'm even more

bullish on those now in just a moment

but let's finish up on super

micro uh I like companies that are in

trash sentiment and I also like uh uh

any kind of investment that has the

worst sentiment possible because I have

what I call a 2 by two formula when I

invest in things for companies the 2 by

two formula is very simple it's are the

fundamentals good in other words is it

going to go bankrupt does it have

pricing power in its space does it have

negative sentiment I want to buy when

the sentiment is negative and is the PEG

ratio relatively

low now all of these have their own

fluidity they're each like a little

rubber band but think about this for a

moment for super micro it's selling for

less than a one peg it's selling down

81% from Peak and it's selling for eight

times earnings you have a company that

basically builds out the infrastructure

for the Nvidia BL Blackwell chips they

do super uh you know water cooling

basically as well they've got water

cooling Stacks uh so does Dell you know

competitors have them as well but this

will be especially important with some

of these higher performance chips uh

which gives them some form of pricing

power building server racks isn't the

highest margin industry you know it's a

5 to 10% margin business to the bottom

line best case scenario you know whereas

Apple's like a 25 or Microsoft's like a

35 Nvidia is like you know also like a

35 so there are definitely higher Market

margin businesses but from a server rack

point of view uh these are what your

margins are and within the industry

they're pretty competitive people like

using super

microcomputer they're selling for eight

times earnings that is extremely low for

an AI adjacent well it's actually it's

more than AI adjacent it is like I mean

you can install AI servers without

server racks I still think there is

likely to be a commoditization of L l m

and that there's some form of artificial

intelligence bubble but we've already

kind of seen some of that bursting or at

least the trajectory of some of the

valuations of these companies really

chillaxing I mean look for example at an

arm you know that's this is your risk

architecture and you've peaked out

you've got a head and shoulders uh

pattern here like you know 5-year-old

can see this it's not good you might be

going back to 46 bucks if this head and

shoulders plays out you look it's

something like an AMD uh you're on a

downtrend and you've been on a downtrend

frankly since March one of the ones

that's I mean even meta look at meta

you're down 10% from Peak which look

it's done great it's on a fantastic

trajectory and we're about to bounce off

this trend line here as well as this

upper FIB uh

but some of the Euphoria has really left

the AI space and I think that is in part

creating an opportunity for super

micro this company has enough cash and

accounts receivable to pay off all of

their current liabilities long-term

liabilities including convertible

bonds uh and still have $4 billion worth

of free and clear inventory as of March

31st right obviously all of this could

have an asterisk on it and we're going

to talk Tesla in just a moment because

some people just aren't going to believe

the fundamentals uh and and the

financials are provided because well

they're going through accounting

problems I'm including in this debt

payoff deferred revenues as debt of just

over $200 million and I'm calling that

my slush fund for oops we screwed up

we're going to get fined and we're going

to get sued I'm putting $200 million in

there so I'm giving myself a little bit

of that margin of safety and I still get

$4 billion of inventory on top of that

this uh is trading for about 15 billion

dollar as a company and what's worth

noting is in if you annualize out your

revenues for q1 you multiply that by

four you're sitting about $19.6 billion

of revenues it might not always stay

that high I'm sure it'll level off as AI

becomes more ubiquitous but I think

there's a squeeze to be had on this play

especially as the shorts get

out now if you look at a PEG ratio which

is a price to earnings growth ratio I

like to be under 1.67 for any kind of

Hardware or manufacturing play I would

put them at about

a67 and if I put him at 167 on a PEG

ratio and I take a Ford earnings

projection of about $5 2027 then what

I'll do is I'll take five I'll multiply

it by 1.67 and I'm going to give him a

10% growth rate which is honestly

nominal on EPS I think very achievable

uh that puts me at a price Target in

2027

of

83.5 okay divided by you know where

super micro is trading now at $28 it's

about a 3X so that is what I see as a

present day cigar butt play is their

downside risk could they get delisted

you know could they truly be the biggest

frauds ever

sure and that gives it some downside

risk and then you can buy the dip on it

if you believe they're going to be able

to turn around but I don't think they're

going to disappear especially at this

valuation I think I've got a lot of

cushion here

so that's a little bit on super micro

computer the numbers are great so think

about that for a moment at least

financially with an with a $200 million

as risk uh which I've already accounted

for as margin of safety I think you're

good that's part one of your 2 by two I

think of like a rust 2 by two Foundation

right part one you're good uh pricing

power relative within the industry water

cooling great as far as uh valuation

trading for less than a one peg uh less

than frankly they're selling for less

than one times annual sales that's

amazing uh and uh then of course

sentiment I want it to be in the toilet

it could not be more in the

toilet perfect time to buy 2 by two

check now before I talk about Tesla I

just want to talk about Hedges because

this leads into

Tesla I believe that there are uh three

primary Hedges that we're going to have

for this deflationary recession whenever

it comes I don't know when it's going to

come uh I I really have no idea but

there are three primary Hedges uh the

first hedge you should know by now is

bonds and cash I think 20 and 30e bonds

are going to perform exceptionally well

as we go into a deflationary cycle and

uh opt I have options on the 20 year for

example via TLT I also have exposure to

TMF so I'm biased but you have to don't

don't say like I always say to folks

don't ask why somebody is saying oh yeah

I'm bullish bonds oh they must be

bullish bonds because they hold bonds

you should ask yourself why did they go

bullish Bonds in the first

place well quick tldr I think we are

going to walk into an unemployment

recession as soon as potentially next

year uh probably q1 I could be wrong I

hope I'm wrong because it's going to

cause a tremendous amount of human

suffering I don't think this is a real

estate related bubble this would be more

of a valuation related bubble

uh and just the lack of liquidity and

then layoffs and then you know declining

sales for a few years I think we are

very clearly in a slowing economic cycle

and as a result I think there will be a

lot of stimulus to try to promote demand

uh you're going to try to promote the

demand side again not the supply side

the supply side is built out that's what

the FED affects anyways the demand side

so we'll get back to the money printer

except the money printer is not going to

create a lot of inflation this time

because we're not going to be sending

stimulus checks there's no way

Republicans are going to fall for that

again in instead we'll be printing e you

know easing money through the Federal

Reserve which really benefits asset

holders like frankly house Haack who has

free and clear real estate which I don't

think there's a real estate bubble so

that's why we're buying real estate uh

free and clear real estate that I could

then piggy bank open with some cheaper

debt and go buy even more real

estate so we're really excited about

that also just sort of like side note

this morning in the market open live

stream I was I was serious when when I

said I may it may have been the course

member live stream but I was talking

about how my dream for house Haack is to

make it the the Burkshire haway of the

future that doesn't mean that I'm always

going to be right in the short term uh

or even in the long term but it means

that I'm going to follow my values which

is buying what I think is cheap and

follows my 2 by two formula and I'm

going to do that same thing in real

estate uh and in the long term the way I

sort of see house hack developing is I

think it's going to expand into not just

buying real estate St below market value

kind of like you in my opinion you can

buy super uh micr computer at sort of

cigar butt valuation wedge

valuations but uh Adu developments uh

larger developments institutional uh

funding so you know mini fund strategy

uh which which we'll focus on in the

longer term but really you know we also

want to hold a lot of our real estate

because really I I see house Haack as a

tax play think about the tax play of a

corporation see corporations so you have

lower taxes if that Corporation than as

earnings that can be offset by real

estate depreciation you pay even low

Less in taxes and then let's say in the

future 20% of this company uh is it sort

of treasuries or its cash or whatever

are invested into various different

stocks through an ETF that that company

controls it could basically LGH hold

stocks rebalance and never pay

taxes because just like in real estate

you can exchange and not pay taxes you

could do it with stocks One stock runs

you can exchange to another stock

there's so many so many incredible

things we can do uh with that company so

so that that is a big investment for me

as well and I just want more shares of

the company like putting more money in

it's because we have a fund raise going

right now that's at hous hack.com you

could read the PPM there but we're

basically giving you uh the right to buy

shares and a 5% yield which is pretty

sick and that's because we expect to be

cash flow positive all of 2025 probably

even Q4 uh we'll see if we can pull it

off for Q4 and uh we're just growing so

it's really really exciting uh that's

house act.com but anyway so TLT bonds

cash fantastic cool thing is if alack

has its own ETF it could even move

between bonds and cash taxfree that's

all in the future

though for um another hedge I think

mortgage companies are a hedge not as

good as bonds though it's mostly because

of Mortgage Debt in certain areas I

think will be very desirable especially

for companies that service since you'll

also get uh exposure to those refinances

as rakes come down and then the biggest

hedge that I haven't talked about much

I've talked about in one prior video for

a recession is actually

robotics ah finally we get towards Tesla

yes

exactly now Tesla's valuation has

problems and we're going to talk about

that but robotics is going to be the

hedge of the next recession again I

don't know if that recession is in 27 28

or when it

is but

robotics without a doubt are going to be

the way of the future and you know how

we went from like no self-driving in

cars to like wow really good

self-driving in cars the first

80% of neural Nets is pretty easy to

train I I'm not trying to minimize it

but you make the most progress with the

least amount of cost so I think you're

going to get robots that are doing

things decently not great but decently

very rapidly that final 20% much like

trying to get a car from FSD 12 to full

self-driving you know Ro Robo taxi

basically that will take much longer

that could take you know it could be 3

years to functional Optimus and then

another 10 years to perfect Optimus

that's fine but as we go into a

deflationary recession companies will

unfortunately be forced to lower their

costs by any means necessary robotics

create a very interesting opportunity

see robotics allow you to invest in a

capital Improvement this is very

important that's why I'm talking taxes

in this as well by investing in a

capital Improvement you're not actually

expensing it to the bottom line year one

you're capitalizing it let me basically

say this in English if you have $100 of

earnings and you spend $25 on a robot

I'm simplifying the numbers obviously

you might only expense $5 of that robot

so your earnings actually look higher

because you're going to write that robot

off over many years as a capital

Improvement it's an asset you're moving

cash from one asset to another type of

asset property plant property and

Equipment look at a cash flow statement

free cash flow understand free cash flow

understand how accounting Works robotics

will be add backends for adjusted EPS in

my opinion because what do you do in

adjusted EPS you add back in

depreciation so all of a sudden you're

going to have companies like Amazon

blowing money on robotics cutting human

labor and they're actually growing their

adjusted

EPS by shifting from humans which are an

EPS cost to robots which are not at

least you know depending on the

depreciation schedule most of it

isn't that's how companies are going to

grow out of this next recession in my

opinion more investment into robotics so

I'm working on a deal right now where I

want to invest more in robotics it's

it's a private deal uh and uh I I don't

know we're going through due diligence

and underwriting now uh and it's

possible I'll be able to bring that uh

to to you know other people um so stay

tuned make sure you subscribe to the

channel I will mention it in the alpha

report so if you don't want to like

watch every video or whatever just go to

meetkevin.com

Alfa uh and let me know if you be

interested in that basically it'd be

something like um you know a venture

capital kind of structure where we

invest in various different robotics

plays uh or you know Innovative

Technologies or whatever not not real

estate in that uh I cannot fund raise I

can't do a general solicitation for one

company so it' be separated for various

different companies but I'm just saying

I'm going through due diligence on one

company now if this is something you're

interested in you want you want to kind

of know more about uh like this or or at

least stay informed on what's going on

you can also email us uh at staff

meetkevin.com and we'll let you know

when we have more details on this but

Tesla is a robotics play it's just very

expensive as a robotics play which is

unfortunate but I'm going to show you

how it functionally could work it's a

trillion dollar company I want to invest

in robotics companies that are like you

know hundreds of millions to you know a

few billion dollars because I think they

have

no I'm not making guarantees or

projections but I think they have 10x

20x 50x 100x potentials very risky

obviously I don't think Tesla has 100x

potential potentially ever uh there just

be too much competition and in the

future right uh now does Tesla have a 2X

signature I remember when I said that I

thought Tesla was going to double before

Nvidia doubled and and so far that's

turning out to be

true uh that said I have come to buy

Tesla um with with with a smaller

allocation I want Tesla to be a larger

allocation because I actually think

it'll sort of be like the apple of the

future where you know people like Kathy

Wood are like cool you all have

innovated so much now you're a cash play

like that's what I think Tesla is at

some point going to turn into you know

when it's like let's say A5 trillion

doll company or whatever I don't know

what time frame that's going to be in

but

basically I never unless something

fundamentally and materially changes I'm

never going to sell Tesla

again uh my exposure to Tesla and

instead uh what I'm kind of expecting is

while I think there's still a good run

ahead of it I do expect meaningful

deterioration in a

recession and so I want to use profits

that come from the Hedge plays the

mortgage company plays the um Bond plays

treasury bonds 2030s use those profits

and throw them into buying the dip on

companies like Tesla now you could get

the energy exposure pretty inexpensively

through end phase today it's terrible

sentiment excellent fundamentals

excellent fundamentals on the on the

balance sheet no bankruptcy risk great

cash flow and it would be very stupid to

get rid of the uh manufacturing tax

credits for solar because you would just

send all the jobs back to Ukraine uh

actually sorry it's

Romania

sorry uh they've got pricing power

within their industry although they

they're competitive with Tesla so it's

not the best but they do and their

valuations like you know one peg or

lower Tesla though we need to understand

Tesla right now uh Tesla prices out with

its energy business and its um that's

the batteries mostly uh and its vehicle

business at probably about a 190 to 240

price that's that's more fair now that

is up from where we were

uh you know a few months ago where where

that was closer to like 140 to 170

specifically because the trajectory of

energy is exploded and I think it will

continue to do so larger Mega

packs uh I also

believe that a lot of the the the sort

of limitation on incentives for us

manufacturing will

stay because otherwise you're basically

raising taxes is on American

manufacturers and that's very unpopular

now do I think the EV tax credit is

going to go away yeah sure fine that's

going to be bad in the short term but

it's actually going to be great for Q4

like I have never seen this many people

go to metkevin.com Tesla and buy a Tesla

I personally think you can get better

deals on a used Tesla right

now but boy boy let me tell you man that

freaking cyber truck is sick dude I I go

out there every day and I'm like man

this is freaking cool why didn't I have

this longer it's nice it's I feel like

like a little little like little girl

it's like like my little babies I just

posted a little video reel of all five

of the babies on X and Instagram if you

want to see it uh I'm meet Kevin on

Instagram and real meetkevin on X uh so

I'll try to post some more videos too uh

and you can also see the cybertruck on

the

plane um but um okay so so if Tesla

price is out between 190 to 240 now that

does mean we can we can revisit these

levels especially in a recession I mean

everything's going to go down in a

recession except for bonds I think bonds

will actually do quite well in a

recession

uh but the difference that you're paying

today for Tesla at $340 that $100 that

you're paying so what is that 100

divided

342 29% time uh 11,00 I'm paying about

oh

God I'm paying about $321 million for uh

love robotics exposure right

now which is

very high now they probably have the

greatest opportunity for growth and mass

manufacturing most robotics plays that I

see the biggest risk they have is that

they they do not mass

manufacturer Google's going to mark my

words Google will get into making their

own

robotics

Facebook uh Amazon all of them will

probably get into their own robotics to

compete with Tesla Netflix is going to

start getting into robotics to fix their

streaming issues okay that's just a JB

I'm joking there but for

sure uh Google's you know what like

probably even Apple they'll just be the

last and apple have theirs built in

foxcon but you know China out well we'll

see how that goes with with uh Trump but

then again last time Apple got some

exemptions from from Trump tariffs

because you know and then they they they

gave him a nice new iMac or some kind of

apple you can Google that story anyway

so it is a rich valuation but Tesla

let's be real they have the best pricing

power of any vehicle company that exists

they have the biggest PP that exists we

all know that uh which is

great uh we know they're not going

bankrupt which is also great but the

other two suck sentiment is way too

euphoric uh and you probably just had a

short squeeze which contributes to the

Euphoria and the valuation is high right

now so why did I buy any of

it well

frankly it also

serves as an upside

hedge so one way you could do this is

you establish a smaller position than

you want I want Tesla to be a 20ish

maybe 25%

exposure so I plant the seed at let's

say four or

5% If this just goes Looney uh because

you know the market can do crazy things

maybe it'll grow to 10 15 20% as an

allocation without me doing

anything perfect it's like planting seed

I don't think that's going to

happen so

I'm prepared first of all to never sell

those shares a because that's stupid

don't bet against Tesla I can admit

mistakes number

two buy the crap out of the dips and the

way that I'm hedging with bonds uh I

think will give me more Capital to buy

those

dips so uh I'm also working on on a

buildout of sort of balancing what I

call this Trump meet Kevin barbell you

know stocks that I think will do not

stocks that have already fully priced in

this expectation but stocks that I think

will do well in

2025 but

also with a mix of Kevin's opinion of

what's going to happen in 2025 so you

get the the Trump Kevin

barbell you know we're gonna see which P

okay no we're not going to go that thank

you so much for watching make sure you

sign up at the alpha report all the

updates related to me even I'll I'll put

little notes about the robotics or VC or

whatever all uh in this Alpha report

I'll just put them towards the bottom or

I'll figure it out okay I just want to

provide value to that Alpha report every

day I'm I'm I'm working on adding even

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way to stay in touch to where you don't

feel like you have to watch every single

minute of every video obviously I would

love if you did that I specifically

would love if you went and watched my

pilot video and I don't know let me know

what you think about it anyway thank you

so much for being here cheers it's

coffee still sober why not advertise

these things that you told us here I

feel like nobody else knows about this

we'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it Go congratulations man you

have done so much people love you people

look up to you Kevin PA there financial

analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always

great to get your take