BIG News on Omicron | Stock Rotation NOW

hey everyone me kevin here the rotation

to travel stocks might be happening

sooner than we suspect we're going to go

ahead and look at what's going on with

some of these travel stocks in just a

moment but first let's go ahead and get

through some of the updates that are

creating the catalyst that we're seeing

today so a first front-page news today

was about multiple new studies coming

out showing as expected that omicron is

mostly more mild and this is what we've

been expecting however the market has

been creating a little bit more fear

over omicron than is really justified

this is something that we've broken down

numerous times on the channel here that

there

the market was almost and has almost

been looking for a reason to be more

fearful than it really should be now

here are some notes from the latest

study so the latest study in scotland

these are a summary of the doctor the

one of the lead doctors on the study

and here's a summary of their notes of

what they thought about the study so

they mentioned although they studied a

small number the study is good news they

found that two-thirds or they found a

two-thirds reduction in hospitalization

of double vaccinated young people

compared to delta indicating that

omicron should be much more mild for

people they do say that there are a few

things to bear in mind the study is

rigorous but that it should be noted uh

that it'll take more time and more data

to really get the final results

they also mentioned that the study was

done early in the pandemic and focused

on younger people this is early in the

omicron

pandemic

and that the elderly of course are more

vulnerable they mentioned that although

a two-thirds reduction is significant

omicron can cause severe illness in the

doubly vaccinated and this was an

interesting line here that they

mentioned they say hey even though

more broadly it's substantially good it

is still possible to be severely ill

with a double vaccine it's obviously not

the best news for the vaccines but it's

also worth noting that we also got news

out of wall to read that we're expecting

positive results on that spfn

vaccine that 24 sided soccer ball style

protein that'll introduce 24 different

variants to you if you decide to take

that military military-grade vaccine

watch my video specifically on that if

you want to learn more about that but

that was also seen as a potentially

another positive catalyst for travel

stocks of course that we could have

positive results fully reported within

the next two weeks and we're expecting

those results to be positive it's just

going to be a matter of how positive

they are for that new potential vaccine

but regarding the study here regarding

pfizer and and the other mrna uh double

vaccinated vaccines it is still possible

to get severely ill with the vaccine

however you have a substantial reduction

very significant reduction they do

believe that omicron could continue to

double every few days and that they do

believe if it does that we could

generate more hospitalizations than

delta from a double vaccinated

population even so so they're really

proceeding here with cautious optimism

they mentioned that the best news from

their study is the observation that the

booster is highly effective at reducing

severe illness so if you want to reduce

that chance of severe illness

getting that booster highly important

remember that booster is really helping

you get to that

70 to 75 range in reducing the odds of

having a severe case of of omicron which

is huge pretty crudely they say we have

more time to get people boosted but we

can't waste a moment of it everything we

can do as individuals to slow the spread

gives us more time in my view there are

now solid reasons to favor a more

optimistic outcome of omicron in the

united kingdom then was feared and none

of this of course should diminish the

lives that have been lost so uh this is

important this is definitely a catalyst

for a lot of companies that we're seeing

right now uh especially for example the

cruise line stocks up

3.46 percent today we've actually really

started coming up

since about thursday so we had a green

day going into a friday we had about a

seven percent run between friday and

monday

and then we've run a total of about 20

percent now since last thursday so in in

six uh in six days we've run about

21

on the travel stocks it is worth noting

though that we're still lower than where

we have previously been if we zoom out

onto the day chart uh on uh carnival

cruise lines for example we do see some

pain here going into the delta variant

uh delta brought us down to somewhere

around 2147

which is approximately where we're

trading now right now we're trading at

about 20 83 and after hours so still a

little bit of a discount but we do see

we've clearly jumped back over that 20

line for carnival cruise lines and we're

seeing a lot of other recovery stocks

behave very similarly whether it's the

airlines or the cruise line so we're

starting to see this rotation this

study's news obviously very good this is

what we were expecting especially after

the uh the inflection point down in

cases in south africa now it's worth

noting that yeah even though we've seen

an inflection point down in cases in

south africa there are still concerns

that different parts of south africa

might be responding differently than

more highly vaccinated or more highly

exposed or previously exposed to covet

areas and this is important to pay

attention to because in the united

states it's estimated that somewhere

between 60 to 75 million individuals do

not have either prior exposure to covet

or a vaccine

so this is in contrast to the

expectation that over 90 plus percent of

the individuals in south africa have

either the vaccine or prior exposure to

covet potentially making

omicron less severe but that is exactly

why this study today out of scotland

with the oxford professors notes we just

saw is so bullish for for recovery

stocks and we're already seeing this

recovery get priced in mostly because

what we're seeing is hey look we are

potentially going to see an inflection

point regardless of whether we have had

prior exposure or not in our communities

because the united kingdom does not have

as much prior immunity like south africa

either now the united kingdom has been

great with vaccinations but still the

study bullish and this is the kind of

news that we've been seeing over the

last couple days not only the inflection

point to the downside in cases in south

africa and hospitalizations remaining

flat but the same kind of a thing now

happening in the united kingdom and

we're hoping that happens in the united

states as well so overall good news and

we're already starting to see stocks

respond positively to this this in my

opinion is a little bit sooner than

expected i was expecting to continue to

see a surge in omicron cases at the same

time as hospitalizations rotating up

because of lingering delta cases however

now we're nearly 80 percent dominant

with omicron cases in the united states

which means we're likely to slow the

amount of increased hospitalizations we

see in the united states

and even though prior waves have usually

lasted about five months so we've had

sort of five month waves of covid that

have spread through different states at

different times omicron might end up

being here and gone much faster than

previously believed we're expecting that

new york city according to dr scott

goblin today will peak around

mid-january in terms of cases and that

we might see other areas

peak shortly thereafter as well like

areas around

seattle

or various areas around the tri-state

area around new york city all of them

expected to potentially peak by

mid-january and if these are right now

are potentially the bulk of cases or

we're not even necessarily testing the

bulk of cases and catching them because

folks aren't getting tested because

they're mostly having relatively mild

symptoms then maybe we might actually be

vastly underreporting how much omicron

there really is right now remember as of

even two weeks ago in wastewater samples

in florida in orange county we were

realizing that wait a minute omicron is

already dominant here maybe but we're

not seeing that show up in testing yet

but somewhat implies that

much of our population may already be

getting exposed to omicron without this

coming up and testing so uh this is why

over the last three days we've kind of

started seeing a little bit of a u-turn

in a recovery stocks earlier than

expected the united kingdom's growth

rate for cases is also slowing according

to uh the the cuba tracker in the united

kingdom that updates at 3 pm london a

local time daily we're up from 80 000

cases last week to about 140 thousand

cases now that's still under reported on

some websites but if you look at the

zokov tracker

zoe cover tracker uh which might be

pronounced zoe in the united kingdom uh

we we've seen cases go to about 140 000

but the rate actually hasn't been that

strong we've been fearful about this

doubling rate of coven but four days ago

we were at 121 cases 121 000 cases in

the united kingdom right now we're at

140 000 cases so either omicron is

spreading at a doubling rate and we're

just not tracking all of these or

omicron is actually spreading slower

than expected which is also

reiterating that good news for recovery

stocks

now according to a study by oregon

health and a science university

breakthrough covet cases do tend to

generate a very enhanced immune response

the study found that antibodies from

blood samples of breakthrough cases

which were as much as 1 000 times more

effective than antibodies generated by

the pfizer vaccine two weeks after the

second dose so what this is really

telling us is that if you do end up

getting omicron your your body's

lingering response can actually be very

very strong after your infection to

potentially future variants so this is

very good news it's almost kind of like

hey if you get omicron and all of a

sudden you have a 1 000 percent increase

in in antibodies compared to a double

vaccine dose of pfizer it shows that

natural immunity is is potentially going

to give us the strength to power through

any potential new variants that come up

and if we get to herd immunity with

something like omicron then this turns

into that official nothing burger and uh

we we go back to normal uh and we take

away omicron as a as and potentially

even the pandemic as as a catalyst for

markets to be nervous and given that

there's a lot of fear around pandemics

creating supply chain delays leading to

inflation uh and potentially uh

pandemics leading to more fiscal

stimulus or even monetary stimulus

leading to more inflation fears as well

then if we take away the pandemic as a

catalyst we we could potentially finally

start seeing inflation rotate back down

to normal expected levels uh somewhere

between two and three percent by the end

of 2023 uh considering of course that

we're going to still see housing

inflation and wage inflation but overall

we could actually be on a good

trajectory for the market so i think

it's a reason to be optimistic

now health officials do say that as of

saturday we're at a 93 dominance we do

think that this is about 80 now as i've

already mentioned the world health

organization director general called for

the public to cancel upcoming events due

to omicron i honestly don't think most

people are taking that very seriously in

the united states with the exception of

a new york city where you are seeing a

lot of events getting cancelled on

tuesday joe biden mentioned that he's

going to take a look at another travel

ban to or or look take a look at his

existing travel bans to south africa and

seven other countries saying that the

travel ban was necessary when they

didn't have much information but now

we're past that and he's expecting to

potentially lift this travel ban he also

announced on tuesday the purchase of 500

500 million at home rapid covet 19 tests

and what they expect is

that this should serve about four tests

per household and they're going to

announce some form of a website where

we'll be able to order these honestly by

the time we actually get these i

wouldn't be surprised if it's somewhere

around mid-january and we kind of start

hopefully ushering in the end of the

pandemic unless of course we get some

other bizarre new variant or some other

garbage that i don't even want to think

about right now according to nbc also uh

dr fauci mentioned that the omicron

variant will almost certainly account

for 100 of cases within about the next

week to two so potentially by the end of

the year we could be all omicron which

at the moment is indicating uh that i

mean this this this is expected to be

very good news south africa's cases have

dropped uh uh from a high of 27 000

cases the numbers dropped to about 15

400

as of uh the last count now bloomberg is

also reporting that the drop in cases

may be to less maybe due to less testing

because uh on the day they reported a 44

a drop in cases 29 29.9 of a test

analyzed returned positive similar to

that 30.7

of positive tests uh the day before

then uh we also have the australian

prime minister mentioning that despite

large increases in new cases they have

not seen a significant impact on their

hospitals which is very very good this

is uh this is excellent they've been

incredibly strict of four lockdowns with

big consequences for breaching the rules

we saw a lot of police interventions uh

questionable behavior by police

especially against protesters like

instances of people walking their local

park or or out of uh or out on a walk

from work in the morning and then being

tackled or man there's been a lot of

drama in australia about this i don't

really want to take a political position

on this but there's been a lot of drama

on this

uh then on top of this we also had

excellent news that uh well first of all

the not so good news is we know that

merck's uh covet pill is not anywhere

near as effective in reducing the risk

of hospitalization and death as a

pfizer's pill mark's pill is only about

30 effective remember that red pill

we've talked about on the channel

however pfizer's covered 19 pill shows

that it's 90 effective the pill now has

fda approval which allows doctors to

prescribe the medicine to anyone 12 and

older who's considered high risk

the pill targets individuals who have

just gotten sick so should be taken as

soon as you notice symptoms the pill is

called paxlovit tens of thousands of

packs of pills are reported to be ready

to go in pfizer's warehouse the pill is

substantially effective as long as you

take the pill within three days of your

onset of symptoms with omicron surging

there are some concerns we might run out

of a supply of this

this drug though and that's

unfortunately because

the active ingredients within this pill

can take somewhere around six months to

actually manufacture and put together

and so there there is sometimes even up

to eight months so there is the

potential that we're not going to have

as many of these as potentially

necessary advisors looking to produce

3.6 billion of these tablets next year

you do have to take the pills uh they're

sort of like a pill box which contains

30 tablets over a five day period uh

they're making 3.6 billion tablets of

them so so we should have quite a few of

these available for for individuals

however it's going to take time by

january of 2022 they're trying to get to

50 million packs

which is nice but again honestly by the

time we actually get these distributed

hopefully omicron has uh uh become uh

has continued to prove to be mild

continue to uh prove to be uh something

that uh maybe even ushers in the end of

the pandemic and uh hopefully this all

comes to an end so there we go that is

the news on omicron i think it's uh

mostly

positive news and i appreciate you

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