im concerned about this shift in the market

hey everyone me kevin here it is the

middle of the night uh it is still

technically june 30th so that 40

off coupon code for the programs down

below is still active linked down below

and folks i got to give you a market

update since i'm not going to be

available to give you a market update in

the morning i'm going to be at patrick

but david's podcast which you should

watch

9 a.m eastern time at 6 00 a.m pacific

time i will be live with patrick van

david so be there be square but folks i

want to give you a little bit of a

market update

i think we need to move heavily and this

is my belief this is not financial

advice so don't sue me bro if you lose

lots of money doing this

i think seriously we need to consider

long

shares of growth stocks now why am i

saying that

why do i think we need to go long on

shares and not options of growth stocks

it's because folks the numbers are

shifting again we just got

pmi reports from china korea and japan

you might be wondering kevin who cares

like most of us are in the united states

like why do we care about growth numbers

out there from

companies because remember a pmi or

reading

is essentially a company responding to a

survey every single month

with an answer as to their business is

slowing down flattening

or or being it's flat month over month

or it's growing

and more and more companies are saying

their business is flat

or slowing down from the beginning of

the year now this is asia asia is a few

months ahead of us

so really when you look at asian data

you actually can use

asia as a way to predict what could

happen in the united states if we follow

a similar pattern

they take care of covid long before us

they recover sooner

they get a boom sooner they get a

slowdown sooner it's a little bit of an

omen for the united states

and guess what bloomberg says is doing

not so hot

in for example japan or china right now

value like value stocks or cyclical

stocks or

recovery stocks things that that looked

like they were beaten down and cheap

this is what kathy wood calls

the value trap style stocks where

potentially you could be getting into

something that's higher debt

and expected to have lower growth in the

future and potentially ends up getting

squeezed out

of business in the future in favor of

innovative companies now

in fairness we should be fully

transparent here kathy wood

is extremely bullish on innovative

stocks

and it's not a surprise that she would

say something bad about recoveries

or uh you know potential value companies

that end up being value traps this is

not a surprise to hear that from kathy

wood

but what is something that we should be

prepared for is what if we do see a

slowdown

in economic growth more substantially

than we think

how do we position our investment

portfolios how do we position ourselves

just in general

well one thing that i'm concerned about

is if we see less growth

in the markets i have a slight concern

that wait a minute

what if the crazy uh you know

growth that fueled crypto rallies

doesn't come back at least not soon what

if

what if instead of crypto going from 34

back to 64

and then to 100 000 bitcoin goes from 34

000 to 38 000 and it just sits here for

the rest of the year

it's entirely possible that bitcoin does

that and that would have obviously

affect all of the other cryptos now why

would i say that

because one of the things that led to

this euphoric rally that we had

and maybe it was just a coincidence but

it was a fear of inflation

and b massive rapid economic growth at

the same time we're printing money like

crazy

leading to a distrust or an additional

distrust for crypt or for a fiat

but if growth goes away and

hyperinflation fears go away because

remember if prices go up

you know even if prices went up 20 this

year like some crazy high inflation

number and then they stayed

flat next year guess what our inflation

is next year they go up 20

this year and then flat next year zero

zero percent inflation

it's kind of weird to think about it

that way but when prices go up a lot

it's kind of hard for them to go up a

lot again the next year right

so this is why the fed says we're not

expecting to see persistent

long-term inflation yeah we've got

long-term we've got big inflation now

but you don't get that year over year

reading and so this is something that's

kind of concerning me for a lot of

things number one

i'm concerned well first of all

obviously i'm bullish on tech

but i'm bullish on long shares for tech

because if growth

slows down options implied volatility

can get crushed

and if options implied volatility gets

crushed your options premiums are going

to get crushed

this is bad because about 20 percent of

my portfolio right now is in

options i closed two options today

obviously as usual i send the alerts to

those of you in my stocks of psychology

of money group

but screenshots of exactly what i do but

also the strategies underlying what i do

and i try to share as much as i can

while being fair to course members of

course

on this channel as well so look here's

the thing

the reason i just wanna make this very

very clear the reason i'm making this

update

is because the more reading i've been

doing here the the more i continue to

think to myself kevin kevin

i gotta get into long shares i gotta get

out of

options because if markets slow

down and all of a sudden we get less

velocity

in the stock market the fear indices go

down

there's less volume there's less quick

movements or quick changes

then option premiums go down so even if

your stocks are going up

you get volatility crushed because the

implied volatility goes down volatility

crush boom

all of a sudden your uh your options

premiums are down

and you're like oh gosh why did i buy

options now i'm theta decaying

and and basically dying bleeding out uh

even on leaps people like oh well leaps

are the solve all

uh really have you calculated what would

happen

to your leaps if you held them for a

year on a stock that traded sideways

do it we just did that in the course

okay it could get ugly

real fast real fast you could lose half

of your options value or more it's

insane even on leaps

so keep this in mind and so personally i

i see other youtubers right now

mentioning

oh i'm going on options i'm going to

options i'm doing this and

i think the options was great for 2020

and it's been i think it's great for for

buying options in dips

you know march april may but going

forward at these prices

i'm not touching a single option because

i think we might be in a situation where

we go to slow growth

and options premiums are just going to

get wrecked yeah but not only that

i am starting to think to myself oh my

gosh

we've never we've really been looking at

this crypto dip as a crypto dip

but if growth goes away is it possible

that crypto potentially trades sideways

not it doesn't have to plummet you know

bitcoin doesn't have to plummet to

to uh 24 000 or 19 000 and take the

other cryptos with it could just trade

sideways

and if that trades sideways and then

maybe recovery stocks and index funds

trade sideways or recovery stocks some

of the value ones end up trading down

and and tech rotates up slowly

modestly and we just end up in this

really

boring economy where maybe we don't have

another market crash we don't get

stagflation because

we don't have inflation but we're in

this situation where it's just

slow steady kind of relatively boring

growth at least until the housing market

blows which i think that's a

whole video topic in on its own

uh but if you did want to get into real

estate you could always go to

medkevin.com

deals sign up for deal machine and try

to get deals

before they hit the market so that way

you can get better pricing on your real

estate

you can also learn about getting better

pricing on your real estate by joining

the real estate investing course link

down below and use that forty percent

off coupon code

uh although some of you probably watch

this tomorrow

but then again i gotta change the

pricing too and i gotta go meet patrick

but

anyway look the bottom line of this

video is very very simple

although it's not really simple because

it comes with a big explanation but

i'm really worried that if we get

slowdowns which

guaranteed we're going to have in 2022

because in 2022 we're going to be

looking at 2021

i think we might see deflation

and slow growth and it's like oh man

ipad sales are actually

down 20 year over year oh man

they're dropping prices of used cars

just to get them off the shelf because

there's so many of them now

it's just earnings are gonna suck in

2022.

like every earnings report is gonna be

like are you alive

i like and and the companies are still

gonna be printing massive amounts of

money because

they're going to have massive and record

revenues so i don't want to come across

as saying

tech companies or growth companies for

example aren't going to have massive

revenues

it's just the growth that wall street is

so used to and has gotten so accustomed

to in 2020

so we go on so i

i don't know uh but this is something

that

this whole area is off limits but what

about for a youtube video

okay can i wrap it up do you want to be

in it

okay bye well so anyway now i gotta go

um but yeah those are my thoughts uh

thank you very much

and folks we'll see in the next one all

right i got a flight to catch now see ya

bye