f**k

Hey everyone, me Kevin here. Oh boy,

what is going on in markets? And in this

video, not only am I going to tell you

what's going on in markets, but I'm also

going to give you a just very

transparent breakdown of my opinion and

my positioning so that way we could be

crystal clear about where I stand and

what commitments I'm willing to make for

the future. And in this video, I'm going

to give you a very clear commitment. And

if I'm wrong, I will dress up as a

clown. I accept the challenge. So

without further ado, let's give you a

quick breakdown. Look, here's the thing.

This morning we had Target earnings.

Okay, people are like, "Is this a canary

in the coal mine?" No. Okay, Target is

not a canary in the coal mine. Target is

a poorly run business that is making bad

business decisions. They've been

complaining about fulfillment in their

stores hurting their margins for online

deliveries since co and they're morons

because if they took more of a Walmart

style approach, guess what? They'd have

better freaking margins. If they just

invested into fulfillment

infrastructure, they'd be fine. So, no.

No. Is is Target uh a canary in the coal

mine? No. But what is a canary in the

coal mine? Is the 102 spread? Yes. Okay.

Old news. Today, we had the first

20-year bond auction since when? Well,

since the Moody's downgrade. Okay. It

came as a shocker because we got an over

five handle. And it's probably because

foreign buyers of US credit such as, you

know, even even banks in Hong Kong,

okay, they have requirements that they

invest in a certain percentage of AAA

rated bonds and a certain percentage of

lower credit rated bonds. So when

Moody's conducts a downgrade and there

goes our last AAA credit rating, there

is no justification for certain

institutions and banks around the

foreign government holding US debt

anymore. So yes, it exacerbates USD

dollarization. It exacerbates uh

anti-American exceptionalism. Okay. It's

unfortunate. I will never not betray

America though. I am always going to

betray America. People ask me, "Oh,

Kevin, is it time to invest in Japan?" I

don't know anything about Japan. Okay? I

just know about America. And here is my

commitment. First, I want you to know

about the past. This is very simple. I

was part of the problem. The reason we

have so much buy the dip today is in

part my fault. Yes, I'm taking credit

for that because in part because we even

have a buy the dip song that people made

over this because in March of 2020, I

took on a bunch of debt and went into

margin and bought a crapload of stocks

and made a lot of money buying the

freaking dip. Okay, buying the dip was

fantastic. That I was a 10 on the bareb

scale. Okay, bear bull scale is one,

sell everything, 10 buy everything and

margin up and leverage up, baby. I am

not a 10 right now. I am not a 10

because I'm highly concerned about

layoffs. Now, I'm going to make a

commitment. If we do not have a shock in

our economy by Halloween, I will dress

up as a clown for Halloween. This is

exactly the opposite as what I did in

2021. In 2021, I dressed up as Jerome

Powell and we handed out not only

full-size candy bars, but we handed out

free money. We literally threw it up in

the air say free money. Inflation is

transitory. You know, we really leaned

into the whole Jerome Powell and and

Janet Yellen money printer. And it was a

great Halloween. It was it was one of my

favorite Halloweens. But this year, if

we do not have a shock by Halloween, I

will have a clown show outside of my

house, full-size candy bars, and we will

have a circus, red nose, everything. And

the way we're going to measure whether

or not there was a shock, and you're

going to hold me to this, okay? The way

we're going to measure whether or not

there was a shock is TLT will be over

100 by

Halloween. Okay? If it is not, and I am

wrong, then we will confirm soft

landing and it's probably fair to be

more bullish because it means we

survived the tariff debacle uh and the

outcome of tariff warfare. See, a lot of

people today are like, Kevin, look,

tariffs did no damage. You know, uh you

were so negative on tariffs. Well, yeah,

cuz tariffs are economically stupid.

Okay? Anybody with an IQ greater than I

rock knows that the economic outcome of

tariffs are stupid. Now if we can

achieve better net positive benefits

through tariff negotiations then of

course sure you could argue that well

but you know the bad of tariffs was

offset by greater good. That's fine.

That does not change the fact that

tariffs are economically stupid. Okay

that is that is an economic fact. It

it's just a real it's very very simple.

When we get past that, we have to

remember that we're not going to see the

impact of tariff drama probably until

August. And this is why I think

Halloween is very very fair because the

longer we remain over the 210 and the

spreads uh on the 10-year uh and

two-year Treasury curve, the longer uh

unemployment uh in the nature of um uh

of our jolt data continues to decline,

job openings decline, hiring declines,

at some point likely driven by small to

medium businesses, they will crack under

the weight of high ter or or high

treasury yields. These treasury yields,

this Moody's downgrade, these higher

treasury yields, they are not damaging

today. They are damaging in the future

when small to mid-size businesses can no

longer refinance. People go bankrupt

because they can't make their payments

on their stupid buy now pay later

Chipotle anymore. Then they get

laid off on top of that and they really

can't pay off their buy now pay later

crap, which is still sustaining Walmart

and and Home Depot spending.

huge beneficiary by the way of the whole

CLA effect which whose losses have just

doubled because of you know consumer

delinquencies but more on that

separately. When all of this sort of

debt buildup and consumerism hits the

fan mostly likely due to a surge in

layoffs TLT will skyrocket. Now if it

doesn't happen by October and this is

where I make my commitment I will admit

wrong. Okay, we were right to buy the

dip in March of 2020. We were right when

we were saying buy the dip in 2018. We

were right about buying real estate. We

were right about where to buy real

estate, which is very important, the

whole COVID bubble with House Act. I've

been I've been screaming for years,

there's a COVID bubble and the markets

that are blowing up because of, you

know, COVID relocations will not last

and those markets will get hit heavily.

And sure enough, that's exactly what

happened. Uh when you look at um uh you

know the Austin Texas markets, what up

John? When you look at the Austin, Texas

markets or you look at uh uh you know

parts of Florida or whatever. Have a

good day. Uh this this was obvious. This

was predictable. We we knew that. And so

we were right about that. We were also

right about the Nike swoosh recovery uh

from uh from 2022 on. We literally had a

Nike swoosh recovery. Right now, in the

near term though, it feels like Evan is

taking a big L. And I just want to be

transparent about that because what if

if I can say I've been right in the

past, I also need to be able to tell you

transparently when and if I'm wrong. I

think it's too soon to say that I am

wrong that there is no shock coming and

that the soft landing is secured. It's

too soon to say that. If we get to

October and the tariffs have not as well

as the slowdown in the economy have not

led to a spike in layoffs as Jerome

Powell says the economy breaks to the

downside in the fact that it has to come

out with some sort of you know dramatic

rate cuts. If that does not happen by

October I will dress up as a clown and I

will take a fat L baby. I will admit

because you know what it's the right

damn thing to do. Now people, you know,

like very few people in the comment

section, they'll say things like, "Oh,

but Kevin, you're just being a

flip-flopper." No, I I would respond to

the data, you know, everything that I

gave. I mean, if people people were on

me during co, you go back to my videos

in April of 2020, I would do weekly

analysis of real estate trends in

certain markets because realtors would

send me data. Leave a comment down below

if you were one of those realtors.

They'd send me data in their markets and

I'm like, "Oh my gosh, like real

estate's about to boom. Real estate

freaking exploded in COVID. I bought 11

properties personally in 2022 and 2021

because I'm like this is about to take

off and there's a boom in the latter

half of 2021 and 2022. Okay, it's it's a

databased approach and and to me it's

basic but it doesn't prove out the very

next day. That's one of the hard things

is like we we you know we could look at

data and say okay here's the game plan

and then what happens is uh you know the

very next I'll give you an example.

Okay, so I say uh in my core, my last

Core Eve versus Palanteer video I think

is very on point. I talk about how the

financials of Core are actually really

really good right now and a lot of

people didn't realize that Nvidia was

bailing them out anytime they fell under

$40 per share. Uh now people see an

Nvidia stake disclosed and the thing has

like doubled. Okay, we've been talking

about call options and core for weeks

and the alpha report and the course

member live streams and everything. I

actually didn't think it was going to

break over 100 today. I thought it was

going to get rejected by 100. So it's

really impressive. Like the amount of

momentum in Cororeef has been really

mind-blowing. But the thing is if what

like I'll say hey I think long-term core

is going to be a bag holder like in you

know 2 or 3 years as these chips become

bag holder ships. Cororeeve is the face

of bag holding. Uh people will leave a

comment and be like oh well core is up

8% today. I'm like I understand it is

right now a momentum play. It is

actually a good short-term upside bet as

long as there's no shock. you know,

really unfolding right now. Uh, in the

long term though, I suspect it's going

to be a bag holder. Now, am I going to

buy shorts on it? No, because like you

can't time it. Like, you don't know when

it's going to turn into a bag holder.

But my point is, we have to look at

these sort of like broader outlook here

and this commitment that I'm making.

Mind you, also, I see house hack as the

hedge to this. Now, I'm I I want you to

know why, okay? I I don't want you to

think of this, oh, like here's a house

hack pitch or whatever. I want you to

understand why I see paid off real

estate as a piggy bank hedge or cash. So

I I if I I think if I explain that

clearly uh it will make sense. So I have

invested a lot of money into house hack,

well over $5 million, $5 million into

the latest round that we're doing that

pays a 5% yield plus upside in the

stock. You know, you can read our

disclosures over at house hack.com.

Every investment has risk. Uh and and

and also I've spent a lot of money

sustaining house hack in the early days.

uh just like you know me paying for

things right out probably millions of

dollars you know just to try to get this

thing up and running uh and and it's

because I believe in it so much as as

not only a good solid long-term

investment if we soft land and

everything is fine but also as a crisis

hedge here's how that plays out today is

about $70 million in assets if we hit a

crisis and the Federal Reserve cuts

rates in a recessionary environment like

Jerome Powell says to zero

then I believe we are going to be able

to crack the egg of our real estate, $70

million worth of assets, turn it into

probably about a $230 to $260 million

portfolio. If you take $230 million

minus, you know, the $60 million we've

already deployed and we only buy wedge

deals with that and we create $100,000

for every $600,000 or every $500,000 we

invest, we'll generate additional

profits of $30 to $40 million in asset

value. So in other words, like we will

generate massive uh profits with uh

those deals uh by by essentially

breaking the piggy bank. So that's why I

see that piggy bank as a hedge. Not only

that, but when you break that egg, what

you really do is you

create long-term leveraged optionality.

Okay, that sounds fancy, but it's very,

very simple. Let's say you have $70

million of real estate today. It

appreciates 10% over, I don't know, 10

years or 5 years, whatever. Okay, we

don't have to speculate. We know real

estate's going to go up over the long

term. Well, I mean, I think that, okay,

can't guarantee it. Uh, so whether it's

3 years, 5 years, 10 years, who cares?

If you generate 10% in just

appreciation, like the property's going

up in value, that's $7 million. But if

you do that on a leveraged portfolio

because you crack the piggy bank, you

know, your hedge and you get 10% on a

$240 million portfolio, the company

makes 23 $24 million in in in profits in

in, you know, appreciated untaxable

profits that you can redeem tax-free

through refinancing. So really when you

look at this this piggy bank of cash

that house hack is it's really just it's

it's a diversified hedge that does well

in a soft landing environment where we

develop ADUs and and you know look for

yields through development or wedge

deals or it's a piggy bank hedge in the

event of a worst case scenario crash. Uh

and obviously if there's some sort of

worst case scenario crash we're not

going to be paying 5% bond yields

anymore. we will obviously to our

existing investors, but we're just going

to close the round because we could

probably raise at, you know, a 2% yield

and people would still buy it. So, you

know, obviously that's why I think now

it's is an opportune time. But that

said, I want you to apply that to

yourself. How can you apply that to

yourself? Well, you apply it to yourself

with trailing stops on a portion of your

portfolio. So that way, if we do have a

crisis, you trailing stop out and you

have cash. You diversify to investments

that provide you yield. Yes, house is an

example of those. That's why that's why

we do this. Like people are like, "Oh,

why why why are you offering 5% yield?"

This is why. Because when I put my money

where my mouth is, when I say I think

it's a good idea to diversify to a cash,

b trailing stocks, and c flowing

investments, it's because if we go into

a poopy dupy environment, I want you to

be able to have that optionality. Okay,

great. So, let's make that clear. Yes.

Okay, you can learn more about house or

house. Okay, you get that idea. This

video is not a solicitation. Go read the

solicitation agreements, whatever. What

matters is I am going to make a

commitment that if we have soft

landed by October I will have a clown

show for Halloween. And I think I

deserve it because it means that I was

wrong. It means that I was wrong to be

uh a

bear. I personally believe that we on

the downside could be exposed to a

generational shock uh that is triggered

by I don't know what yet. you know, some

black swan, whether it's the combination

of, you know, the tariff drama or uh

employment or whatever disasters are

going on. What it doesn't matter. That

shock uh could lead to a substantial

surge in layoffs. And as soon as we get

that substantial surge in layoffs, that

actually shows up in the data, the Fed's

going to panic. Rates are going to zero,

and the stock market's going to be very

devastated because earnings are going to

have to get written down substantially

because nobody's going to be buying a

new Tesla or or, you know, uh whatever.

everybody's going to be canceling their

AI subscriptions because people are out

of money. Unfortunately, that's what

happens in a recession. So, I think as a

result of that that downside risk, I

want to put a date on this and say if

that does not occur by October, then

it's a clown show. Okay? Literally, I'll

I'll take the L. Uh I don't know what

we'll do if we're right. I don't really

want to like celebrate and rub it in

people's faces because if I'm right, it

means we're in a recession and a lot of

people are suffering.

that sucks. I mean, we'll be fine

because again, we're we're hedged and

built for that. It's fine. We're we're

good either way. It it doesn't it

doesn't it doesn't matter. Uh and there

are some, you know, stocks that I have

exposure to, which we talk about in the

Alpha Report, where it's like, okay,

well, I mean, if we soft land, you know,

some of these are, you know, these

little small companies probably have the

chance to really uh 10x uh which is

fine, too. So, like either way, it it

doesn't matter to me. Uh but I want to

be transparent about that. Uh because I

think if we soft land with no correction

by October uh or or shock, then we're

probably through it because that means

in a soft landing, it means that

unemployment is likely going to be

rising again. Manufacturing is going to

be rising again. Uh spending is going to

be rising again. Earnings growth can

start getting priced in again. EPS

growth gets priced in again. Uh, and

when those things get priced in again,

we could bull run for the next 10 years.

And it means we we had rolling

recessions. As Kathy Wood says, we

didn't have the big shebang like the

2008. We just had rolling recessions and

we got through it. In that case, I was

wrong to be bearish between July of 2024

and October of 2025. And as a result of

that mistake, I will dress up as a

clown. Do I think that I'm wrong right

now?

I'm like 50/50, you know, like uh I I I

mean, if I really had to lean, I'd

probably say I think I'm 60% likely to

be right. I don't really want to be

right because again, it's it's going to

be very painful. But, you know, some of

the recent data we've gotten has been

pretty bullish. And so, I I I don't see

myself as somebody who flip-flops. I see

myself as very very consistent uh over

long periods of time with large bets.

And I'm very transparent about that. And

if I'm wrong, I'm wrong. But I'm willing

to change my mind if I'm wrong and I'm

willing to do that by October. Uh

because that's that's when we'll know.

So I think that's clear. Uh and

hopefully this sort of transparency in

in where my head is is is reasonable. Uh

and that way you know where where my

mindset is coming from as an investor.

So uh leave me a comment down below what

we should do for Halloween if we're

right. Uh and uh you know maybe we'll

have to do like Last of Us Armies or

something like that. Uh, or um, you

know, it'll sort of be mood fitting. Uh,

or what you want me to wear on the clown

show, you know, like G g-string and and

red nose. So, I don't think anybody

wants to see me in that. Um, but,

um, either way, I appreciate y'all. I'm

going to keep providing value to you.

Uh, the goal is every single day with a

Meet Kevin report around 9:00 a.m. We

didn't do that today because of the, uh,

Eric Ding interview, which I actually

think was was a very impressive uh,

interview. No, I don't agree with

everything, but nobody should nobody

should agree with everything. Uh and um

uh here, I'll show you as as sort of a

bonus for you making it to the end of

the video. I'll show you the uh dusty

cyber truck. Uh the thing about

California is it rains so

little. Oh man, it looks terrible. I

just got this washed like 8 days ago and

uh when it doesn't rain, look at this.

And this is gross. I could like write in

there like clown, you know.

Um, but uh, but I will say I really like

the Cybertruck. I know a lot of people

poop on it, but this thing's a freaking

utility beast. Uh, although I have to

say I was a little embarrassed I had to

do this. I went to Lowe's and Home Depot

to pick up 8 uh foot uh, 1 and 1/2 in

schedule uh, uh, 80

PVC. And

um, you can't fit eight footers in this.

you can only fit six feet in the bed and

you can't pop the little window on the

inside. So, it's like I can't stick it

through there. I'd have to leave the

tailgate open, but I don't want to do

that. Uh, you know, because like and

then I have to tie it and all this sort

of stuff. So, it's a little

embarrassing. But I actually took this

car uh which is Lawrence

Sienna and you could stick you could

probably stick I would argue 10 I could

probably get a 10ft stick in here uh

which is more rare anyway. You get that

maybe with like crown moldings or

whatever but I could probably fit a 10ft

stick in here and go from back to dash

in the front just fine. Like when I

stick the 8t in here it actually drops

about where the center console is. So, I

probably have an certainly an easy extra

two feet there, which is kind of crazy.

A little bit disappointing. Uh the the

what I could have done, I suppose, is I

could have just rolled this open and

then had again them sticking out like

hanging over by 2 ft off the back, but

again, I you know, and then I guess you

could have kind of like jam the tunnel

cover against it. Uh maybe I'll do that

next time. But I've got the little

partitions in there and it it just

seemed like too much of a headache. Uh

so I do wish the bed was a little

longer. I would have paid for the longer

version, but

[Music]

um ask me tape. Thanks so much for

watching, folks. I really appreciate

you. Um and uh I'm going to go charge

the segway now. I'll see you in the next

one. Goodbye and good luck. Why not

advertise these things that you told us

here? I feel like nobody else knows

about this. We'll we'll try a little

advertising and see how it goes.

Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you. Kevin Praath there, financial

analyst and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always

great to get your take.