HOLY CRAP - THIS IS IT

hey everyone me Kevin here well welcome

back to uh finally Green Day in the

stock market and welcome back to Florida

a few things that we got to talk about

today so first the Federal Reserve Bank

of St Louis published a piece on Supply

chains and inflation and one of the

things they first told us was that even

though Commodities have come down from

their peak in March they haven't really

retraced as low as we thought they would

that Commodities are now sitting at

higher levels obviously but they're

staying at higher levels and this is a

little problematic as the Ukraine Russia

disaster continues but beyond that

another issue that you have and it's one

that they can consider extreme and to be

one of the real causes of inflation is

we can't understate how bad the supply

chain issues are they mentioned that the

producer price index report that we got

yesterday is almost all about the supply

chain disaster and Nightmare and I know

we're so tired about hearing about

Supply chains but it's it kind of at

least makes me feel a little bit better

knowing this because when you get

through this report guess what they say

companies after we get through all of

this could be substantially more

efficient that it's really difficult to

go from an existing supplier to a new

supplier it takes so long to work with

new suppliers and get used to how

manufacturers and suppliers work

together it's really difficult and it

takes time and that time process is what

we're going through now it's not like

they're trying to make an excuse as to

why inflation is high it sucks we got a

big problem with inflation right to the

point now where we have models like the

sharp indicator that say we are in one

of the worst times to own any kind of

assets because you've got a Federal

Reserve that's like this sucks like we

need to get inflation down we need to

fight it but the problems are we have so

many underlying fundamental pressures on

inflation especially producer prices in

the supply chains that there's almost

little we can do about it other than

continuing to essentially hike and Hawk

right but we are now literally at the

worst time to own assets since 1991 by

using a measure of the sharp ratio which

kind of balances the S P 500 treasuries

high yield and gold we're literally the

worst place uh in my entire lifetime you

know I was born in 92 which is kind of

crazy to think about uh there there is

no sharp ratio that is worse than it is

now since 1991. kind of wild to think

about uh so it's been a pretty

disastrous time to own anything on top

of that you've got uh you know a

financial conditions and Federal Reserve

expectations sort of Dot Plot and

Bloomberg was talking about this and

without getting into the weeds as to how

their Dot Plot Works they're basically

pointing out that the Federal Reserve is

in probably one of the most aggressive

positions or has the most aggressive

posture at a time where we've already

seen a significant amount of financial

tightening and it sort of explains why

the sharp ratio is as disgusting as it

is uh and I mean look we've all been

feeling it right everybody's upside down

on everything uh and we're finally

seeing a little bit of a push back for

example a firm's earnings call yesterday

was absolutely phenomenal um mean you've

seen a firm yesterday I think swung from

from bottom to top yesterday including

after hours that freaking stock moved 65

now I mean it's way down from where it

was so 65 is still like who cares right

it's still down uh but I'll tell you

that earnings call was spectacular trade

desk earning call spectacular these

reports that we're reading from these

companies aren't telling us hey we're

we're definitely in a recession although

we probably are because of our trade

deficit you know negative trade oh

negative uh wholesale inventory uh build

up and and then you know some degree of

pullback from the consumer but beyond

that uh I mean look at look at even

Disney's earnings call people are

spending more money like crazy people

are spending more money on ads which I'm

surprised by because you saw Uber talk

about a pullback in ads you've seen

Amazon talk about how they over hired

and maybe they got a pause you see Meta

talking about a pause but part of me

tries to isolate these things and wonder

like hey well does Uber uh and uh you

know maybe Facebook are they having

problems because they just had bad

business models related to these

employees like it's sort of like with

Robin Hood it's like why'd they lay off

nine percent of their staff because well

a they probably over hired him B

- what were they doing you know maybe

maybe uh maybe Vlad messed up there

right so what are you seeing you're

actually seeing the 10-year trash come

down a little bit 2.9 but the thing

that's really plummeting is the

five-year Break Even we're at 2.95 right

now we plummeted under three over the

last couple days which was phenomenal

because we want those inflation

expectations to come down in addition to

that what did we get today well we got

consumer expectations uh consumer

expectations for inflation and sentiment

sentiment came came in low we missed on

sentiment we were supposed to get a read

of 64. we got 59.1 so that was a little

bit of a bummer however folks this is so

freaking important what happened

consumers expect prices to rise 5.4 over

the next year holding at a four decade

high for the third month in a row in

other words inflation even though for

the next year the expectations are high

at 5.4 stable or what's the key word we

like to use anchored right the other key

that you've really got to pay attention

to is what happens over the next five to

ten years and the expectations for that

but before I can mention the expectation

for that I got to remind you folks were

like three days away from that coupon

code expiring I don't know what you're

doing not joining me yet not only

because even when I'm traveling I'm

getting we're making sure we're getting

these private live streams done and

getting q and A's done to help you

through these crazy times but also this

is the best time to learn the best time

to learn about real estate is when

you're getting ready to go into a real

estate bear Market in my opinion the

best time to learn about stocks is at

the bottom of the freaking market and I

don't want to necessarily say it's the

bottom already because we've been there

done that I thought 318 was the bottom

we got another 10 move to the downside

to what 288 on the QQQ which is insane

hopefully we're past that now hopefully

we can now retrace up because

fundamentally I'm very excited about

companies uh and uh and and the future

here we are going to have the most

efficient companies this decade people

are going to look back at 2022 and

they're going to go damn it I should

have gone all in on 2022 it doesn't even

matter if the stock went up 20 in 2020

you know from from a lower whatever it's

like oh did I already miss this what

it's like no no these are amazing these

are some of the most efficient companies

we've got in the world right now so

anyway check out those programs I'm

building a right down below use that

coupon code okay so what else over the

next uh five to ten years

three percent inflation is expected

which folks is

unchanged from April really good uh then

uh then we do have issues though and

this is going to be an issue going

forward for crypto after the tarot Luna

disaster uh and you know sentiment when

it comes to momentum and and uh and

excitement and Euphoria over assets that

are difficult to Value uh it will come

back there there is a lingering belief

that after the Terra Luna collapse which

was supposed to be one of one of the

greatest projects a lot of folks have

this feeling of like wow they almost

feel backstabbed somewhat uh by by

crypto and to some degree there there

are a lot of folks now who are like I I

don't know if I can trust any project

now if if Terra Luna can go down like

this now I don't know if that's

necessarily true for you or if it should

be true for you uh personally I think

there's so many opportunities in great

companies to buy right now that it's not

necessary to uh you know to to be like

all in let's say on crypto I do think up

to five percent exposure in your

portfolio is okay hashtag not Financial

advice but uh look realistically

you know what this is going to do right

it's going to bring out more more

regulation for example Janet Yellen

today she told lawmakers what'd she say

I wouldn't characterize the scale of

stable coins as something that are a

threat to financial stability today but

they are growing very rapidly and could

become a threat to financial stability

so you know this is what are they going

to do a lot more regulation coming to

the stable coins which is what we need

but if it flushes out a lot of the debt

you know house that can hit valuation so

these are important things to think

about now uh all right Ben I'm doing a

one take here so don't screw up my video

do you want to say anything follow Ben

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check it out on his channel but Ben what

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this video and if you screw up my video

I'm gonna be pissed

I want to tell them that they need to

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that's good that's good thank you all

right everybody you heard it go

subscribe to Ben Mala thanks for

watching and we'll see in the next one

bye