what now... i'm doing THIS w/ THESE stocks.

well its official Nick T from The Wall

Street Journal the fed's mouthpiece just

responded to the CPI crisis or is it

we'll talk about what the Bears and

Bulls are thinking and we'll also talk

strategy as well as some stocks that I'm

looking at right now that I think could

be well positioned for where we're

heading but first we have to remember

that what we talked about in this

morning's live stream in the meet Kevin

report 103 was that a 20 rally in the S

P 500 does not necessarily create a bull

market well that is the technical

definition of one take a look at this we

had a bull market here in early 2001

towards the end of 2001 and the end of

2002 so are we potentially much like a

bird flying into the window of a house

blinded by this now we're at a bull run

classification and are we blindly

walking into a potential rug pull by the

way a bird did actually just crash into

my window that's why I thought of that

analogy I I don't know why I'm

mentioning it the bird's okay but it was

a little shocking to me because these

large glass windows here and I'm like oh

that was quite than expected but anyway

Bird's okay and uh let's see if we are

going to be okay so beyond this 20

argument here we need to understand some

of what's actually happening with

inflation so we have to look at the

facts and the data first so let's start

there and that is of course where I like

to write on here that on the 16th at 11

59 PM we're raising the prices on the AI

course the productivity course as well

as the real estate investing the stocks

and the sales group we're raising

everything again uh that is something we

regularly do is we add content and boy

we've got the entire team working on

even more new lectures right now so

we've got a big lecture release date

coming out that we're very excited to

share with you so check that out by the

link down below or just go to meet

kevin.com whatever is easier for you so

what do we have on this chart well this

is obviously pricing pressures here on

inflation and what we could see are two

lines number one we could see core those

are going to be these gray charts right

here that's your core inflation kind of

where we sit right now and then you have

this headline inflation figure which you

could see had much more of a roller

coaster up and more of a roller coaster

down that headline inflation falling

pretty dang rapidly right now core

inflation not falling super rapidly but

if you look closely we could see that

peak in core around September of last

year somewhere around that Jackson Hole

time and if you actually look closely

enough I know it's almost like you have

to squint your eyes that's where the

Bears laugh and go ah yeah you have to

look so closely because it's falling so

slowly but the reality is it actually is

falling decently we are seeing

disinflation at almost every different a

segment of the inflationary reports now

they might be a total lie in total BS

but what's actually driving core up and

it's worth noting what's driving Cora

well there are two big things driving

core up right now so here's the fact

when you look at the goods chart of

where Goods inflation is coming from

it's coming from Transportation

Commodities less motor fuel but if you

actually look at this chart art and you

see that pink bar you could almost say

that if you take the highs here and the

highs here and cancel it out with the

lows here you really got nothing and I'm

not trying to re-jigger this chart or

whatever we're just trying to Simply say

look if you remove this pink bar of the

last two months you'd have almost no

core Goods inflation and this is this

Transportation commodity is less motor

fuel that's a fancy phrase it's

basically your used cars your new cars

tires and parts for vehicles used cars

really shot up because we still have a

shortage of used cars and even though

leading indicators suggest that used

cars should be coming down in prices

people still have the capability of

paying for these vehicles and so we're

still seeing some volatility in vehicle

spending and therefore vehicle pricing

now it's not to say you want to go

through the CPI report and start ripping

everything out this is simply to put a

magnifying glass on where are the

problems well this is where one of the

problems is and this is where the second

problem is which is your housing sector

as well well as your transportation

services over here so you still have a

little bit of heat there related to

again that vehicle segment otherwise

we're getting pretty narrow there on

what's actually contributing to

inflation and when we take a look at

what we're looking at the forecast for

shelter inflation with we could see we

really just hit the peak so all of a

sudden if you write down okay what's

really driving inflation right now if

you really want to know it is still and

it sounds remarkable but it is still

housing boy I'm tired of talking about

this crap it is still used cars it's not

even Airlines anymore they're negative

and it is still Transport Services which

that one's been another volatile

component you could really see that one

more clearly here by just looking at

that lime green segment we didn't see it

last month but boy it's been a

contributor for almost every single

month with the exception of a couple

over here over the last year so the

point of this is really to say bro

broadly once you ignore not saying you

want to okay I always get the comments

sure Kevin sure once you strip

everything out there's no inflation good

one no it's actually if you take out

very small segments of things that is

narrowed categories housing

Transportation cars and I understand

that's a big part of people's lives but

what is everything else doing what is

that super core sector doing and it's

actually growing extremely slowly but

you know what don't take it from me

let's look at some of the facts and some

of the data because sometimes I feel

like you know people want to see the

numbers on screen they're like Kevin we

don't just want to hear from you we want

to see the data and I respect that I

totally respect that so here it goes CPI

super core in fact smart people are

critical right that's okay it is okay to

be critical that's that's a sign of

intelligence CPI is super core which

offers a highly imperfect proxy of

Powell's preferred measure CPR or pce

super core rather so in other words a

sort of a rough guesstimate based on our

CPI to get to a pce super Corp what did

we see for CPI supercorp just 0.2

percent point two percent annualized is

2.4 percent that's fantastic last month

we were at just 1.2 percent annualized

which you can see here that 0.1 percent

in April so in other words again you're

taking out some of those those really

volatile components like the autos and

then you take out just housing what are

you left with virtually no inflation if

this number was hot the FED would be

able to say this phrase and I know

you've heard it before the FED would be

able to say inflation is Broad based

inflation is pervasive and when

inflation is pervasive and broad-based

guess what happens we hike and guess

what Bloomberg economists are projecting

now a full stop I kid you not Bloomberg

is now forecasting a full and complete

stop to a any kind of rate hikes now

this stands in contrast to what Nick T

says and so how do we reconcile some of

this information well first I want you

to look on screen here I want you to see

this full stop headline this is

literally just bloomberg.com you didn't

have to pay a dime to see this look you

could learn about Trump's indictment oh

we're supposed to go here okay U.S

inflation reports suggests fed pause

will become full stop now I'm already

going through some of the details here

so we're not going to just read you an

article we want to give you the bottom

lines and respect your time and the

point is the data we got in this report

reiterates a complete pause and this is

consistent with history that the Federal

Reserve does not want to send the signal

of being wishy-washy with raid hikes

that would be a real big problem markets

however are not yet pricing that full

stop in and this is actually quite

fascinating look at this current rate

hike probabilities uh are sitting well

we're basically committing to a pause

for tomorrow that's is no doubt this is

about an 88.5 percent chance of a pause

there should really be no surprise or

shocker tomorrow that we'll have a pause

tomorrow that's almost guaranteed at

this point but then what else you have

well then you have Nick T's response uh

where is it oh I don't think I saved it

in here okay I'll pull it up really

quick but tomorrow or rather July's rate

monitor now this is an interesting one

okay because think about this uh this is

going to tell us what is the market

pricing in for July and right now for

July you're still actually relatively

close to a clean toss uh in fact it's

risen just almost 32 minutes here up to

a 62 probability that we are going to

get a hike

next month now why would it have risen

from a coin toss to about a 62

probability of a hike next month and why

is Kevin and Bloomberg saying not a

chance of a hike next time in my opinion

it's because of this article from Nick T

in the Wall Street Journal again I'll

save your time I'll give you the bottom

line bottom line here is actually the

first paragraph I read the whole thing

I'm not just reading the headlines read

the whole thing but the bottom line is

really the first paragraph in this one

honestly fed officials uh concerned

about stubbornly high inflation could

lead them to signal that they are

prepared to lift interest rates again

this year even if they hold them steady

on Wednesday of course the FED is going

to say that because if the FED doesn't

say that they're willing to raise rates

again well then it's going to send

inflation expectations up and what are

inflation expectations doing right now

well the five-year inflation expectation

who's been a little volatile today but

it's actually remaining relatively

anchored at

2.156 ish relatively low it's not a

super bottom like what we've seen in the

past few weeks but you could see how low

anchored we are in just the last six

months this is fantastic this is where

you want to be with inflation

expectations so point is core inflation

low inflation expectations low history

saying stay at a pause all of that great

news reiterating staying at five percent

obviously you get a bad report things

change barring a bad report which

today's report was not a bad report

there's pretty much a long expectations

what do you have you have the FED

staying paused all of those are leaning

towards that so how do we allocate in

this sort of Market in a not personal

financial advice manner what stock

should we consider now I want to be

clear about this even though I'm a

licensed financial advisor and I'm

streaming to you on this beautiful

webcam that you could learn about as

well by going to metcaven.com webcam or

you can get life insurance in as little

as five minutes by going to bet

kevin.com life or you can learn

everything about me or the other

services that I offer on the courses and

yes I'm a fund manager ATF fund manager

or whatever by going to meet kevin.com

scroll around you can see everything you

need to know well aside from all of that

and the paid promotions I think there

are some stocks that aren't actually

seeing the love just yet and I want to

give you a quick thesis on some of those

mostly as a thank you for making it to

this part of the video because I suspect

a lot of people actually don't but quite

frankly that's okay because then you get

the good value back here okay so what do

we want to look at so obviously here's

Tesla up 3.28 it's starting to get a

little expensive now we're sitting over

uh you know somewhere around 2 and 2.15

ish on a PEG ratio it's starting to get

a little pricey so where are the

potential opportunities and risks so

obviously you've got end phase over here

what do you have with end phase well the

problem that you have with endphase

unfortunately is that end phase is

really a real estate related play and

when end face okay come on there I just

want to make the window larger I don't

need to enter a password to do that okay

when Enphase does well is when the real

estate market does well and the real

estate market had its slowdown between

May of 2022 and December of 2020 too

which what's interesting is mface hit

its high in December of 22 and it

actually was closer to a low in May of

2022. this indicates there's about a

seven month lag in this now what's

really fascinating here is that we are

coming up on about seven months we're

about six and a half months into the

year of real estate prices actually

trending up again and so there's an

argument to be made that end face could

see a nice Bounce from this level about

180 to the mid 200s pretty easily and

then on from there especially as we get

to bi-directional charging tentatively

q1 2024 though I always expect delays

and of course we get more battery

deployments yes net energy metering is

probably going to be something that's

going to hurt for a while because it

does increase your cost of getting into

solar especially in places like

California and uh obviously interest

rates make it a little harder to finance

some of these panel systems but the

return on investment for solar is still

pretty dang solid and as the stock

market Rises and real estate market

Rises I wouldn't be surprised to see

some energy investment here again so

here's a potential play What's another

potential play well another potential

play that's not getting a lot of love

right now is ubiquity now I want to be

transparent here I have personal

exposure to the stock that I initiated

right around 165 dollars I also have

personal exposure to end phase so I want

to be very clear uh and these aren't you

know personal recommendations for you

you have to figure this out yourself

these could be wrong but I'm just

looking you know when we're looking at

stuff like this like Nvidia going off

the freaking charts uh you know I'm like

where where is the opportunity left even

AMD even though it's down three percent

today it's like things are going off the

charts right so where are opportunities

left

I am fearful of PayPal I think PayPal

could do pull off a meta but I think the

risk is too high thanks to stripe

competition it's debt load I don't think

they're going to transition to dividends

their debt load isn't that high they

have excellent cash flow excellent

excellent free cash flow but they really

need to move to dividends and become a

value play and right now there's still a

growth play and I don't want to hang out

for that transition but if they

transition to a value play and they just

provide great service to their customers

despite the social media risk there

could be some opportunities here but

ubiquity is interesting because they

really got marked down substantially due

to uh over ordering inventory and now

having too much inventory having to mark

down some of their inventory the risk

here is that those marked on Downs have

to continue and so some of their balance

sheet continues to get a write down but

you're trading right now for somewhere

around uh you know September levels of

2020 uh you're not quite yet at the 123

covid levels right but you're pretty

dang low so absolutely still some

downside risk here for ubiquity this is

a thinly traded stock it's also a stock

that has a lot of uh concentrated

ownership the the founder of the company

owns like 90 of this company something

to that effect so there's a lot of of

risk and you know is the founder going

to Elon Musk yet but what's interesting

is you don't actually have a lot of

Institutions paying attention to this

company and their margins are remarkable

I mean these are nvidia-like margins for

routing equipment and I think the more

we get into artificial intelligence

virtual reality augmented reality the

more demands there will be on home

networking prosumer networking uh

Enterprise networking and ubiquity is a

fantastic play for that in my opinion

now uh then you also have Intel

obviously there's talk about them with

arm that's not a big deal with the rmypo

tentatively it's drawing some attention

to the stock but what I think is a

bigger deal is their Foundry setup I

think this is a if they build it they

will come if we build it they will come

play and this is a company that over the

next three years is going to be one of

the first companies to get access to the

brand new manufacturing machines that

asml is coming out with even before tsmc

Intel will be manufacturing three

nanometer chips you've got some huge

opportunity and first mover Advantage

here especially in their Foundry

Services which nobody seems to be

underwriting right now a lot of this

company when you look at the

fundamentals of the past you're really

looking into a foggy lens whereas I

think the future here is manufacturing

and no longer strictly chip design

people look at this as like oh well

Apple dumped them as a processor

creative who cares I don't even care if

intel makes a single chip again

obviously they'll use that to transition

and their revenues in that sector may

still decline for me though this is a

play that long term it's a Foundry play

a manufacturing play so these are

someone watching I'm also watching at

Sea on a potential rebound we're

relatively close on the low side of the

fibs here but also from fundamental

point of view this is a company that if

business margins for small businesses or

creators or whatever designers go down

Etsy margins don't and that's a

beautiful thing with Etsy is that Etsy

ultimately uh maintains margins through

uh selling services or or selling space

to their customers uh and taking a gross

uh merchandise volume transaction fee

rather than you know selling their own

products so less exposed to inflation

and uh you know you have to be careful

is it potentially a coveted play right

so that gives you a wrap up if you like

my perspective and you want to hear how

we come up with this fundamental

analysis check out those courses on

building your wealth link down below

they've all of that information and

we'll see you in the next one thanks so

much bye