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Trump to Jail, Putin Nukes, Gaza & Israel, Palantir, Buffett & Money News - Meet Kevin Report 1.

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0:00

Donald Trump in jail pool movements Rafa

0:02

rated an Islamic Takeover in the United

0:04

Kingdom pounder earnings war on the

0:07

young economic data on recession or not

0:10

and more let's cover it all in today's

0:12

meet Kevin report first let's talk about

0:15

what's going on in the United Kingdom

0:17

because a lot of people are freaking out

0:20

over wait a minute is this the United

0:23

Kingdom a lot of people are circulating

0:27

images and a video of an Islamic victory

0:30

in the United Kingdom especially in this

0:33

District of Manningham which is a

0:35

district within Bradford Bradford is

0:38

about the 10th largest city

0:40

inside uh the United Kingdom and

0:43

Manningham is a particular District of

0:45

it and so there are some folks who are

0:48

circulating this essentially implying

0:50

that illegal immigration is now

0:53

contributing to the Islamic takeover of

0:56

what maybe previously were not Islamic

0:59

areas uh and so this is circulating to

1:02

add fuel to the fire of really just the

1:05

immigration debate so what I wanted to

1:07

try to find out is what is Manningham

1:11

and what was the population of

1:13

Manningham before this takeover so to

1:17

speak because I usually like to let

1:19

facts and data speak for me so take a

1:22

look at this Manningham in the United

1:24

Kingdom this is the election they won a

1:27

district seat with 77% of the vote going

1:30

to Muhammad now that represented a total

1:33

of about 4,100 votes so really small in

1:37

fact in uh Manningham itself has just a

1:41

population of

1:43

20,5 45 which is just a fraction just 6%

1:49

of Bradford but see when we look at

1:52

tweets like this people suggest a

1:55

district uh within Bradford the United

1:58

Kingdom which is true but the lead is

2:00

Bradford which suggests wait a minute

2:03

must be large but it's really actually

2:05

just a tiny District of Bradford and

2:08

what I found was that

2:10

59.5% of those in Manningham were

2:13

actually born in the United Kingdom and

2:16

that area is

2:19

82.7% Muslim and so again you have this

2:23

suggestion that maybe dark times are

2:25

ahead because of immigration

2:27

transforming the United Kingdom but

2:28

really what they're doing uh through

2:30

these tweets is they're they're trying

2:32

to imply through our biases that wait a

2:35

minute you know the United Kingdom

2:36

should be white why all of a sudden is

2:38

it being taken over by uh Muslim

2:40

individuals when the reality is

2:42

nothing's actually changed over the last

2:44

20 years in fact the population of

2:47

Manningham over the last 20 years has

2:49

moved up by about

2:52

3,600 so you have this tiny movement in

2:55

the population of Manningham basically

2:58

it hasn't grown I bet maybe 16% over the

3:01

last 20

3:03

years and now all of a sudden there's

3:06

this suggestion that hey immigration is

3:10

destroying the United Kingdom but the

3:12

reality is the labor party yes has lost

3:15

some seats due to uh lack of sympathy

3:19

for what's happening in Gaza and so we

3:22

are seeing more Muslim candidates start

3:25

winning votes in local elections but at

3:27

least according to writer over the w

3:30

Journal most of the issues in the United

3:32

Kingdom are decided at a national level

3:35

and local elections have much less power

3:37

than they do in the United States they

3:39

do affect law enforcement but again a

3:41

lot of these seats are being won in

3:42

areas that kind of always have been

3:45

relatively Muslim Centric so I I don't

3:48

know if it's exactly fair to circulate

3:50

images like this and say hey immigration

3:53

is destroying the country now that's not

3:54

to say that immigration fears don't

3:56

exist I mean consider for example the

3:59

anti- Muslim fears that are going on in

4:01

Germany Germans now apparently are

4:04

fearing quote becoming the minority uh I

4:08

do personally hear this from Germans as

4:10

well when I visit Germany so this is not

4:12

something that I only see reported on

4:15

the internet I also hear this in person

4:18

so this is a real fear that people have

4:21

uh Yung fright newspaper suggests that

4:24

uh through a poll they conducted 57%

4:27

believe that in certain areas of my city

4:30

or Village I have a feeling that I am no

4:32

longer in Germany and 54% are quote

4:35

afraid that Germans would become a

4:37

minority in Germany uh now what's

4:39

interesting is the IFD the alternative

4:42

for deuts alternative for Germany

4:44

political party was gaining a lot of

4:45

popularity on anti-immigration in

4:49

2023 but they actually lost a lot of

4:52

their lead after Nationwide protests

4:55

when the AF day was accused of attending

4:58

remigration meetings to basically send

5:02

migrants back to their countries uh you

5:05

can actually see that here this is the

5:08

blue line is uh the sort of voting share

5:11

of the ifda in Germany you can see it's

5:14

sort of ticked down here uh in

5:17

2024 as as some of those topics have

5:19

come to light and people are starting to

5:22

think a little bit okay well maybe maybe

5:24

some of the anti-immigration fear has

5:27

gone a little too far but what what is

5:30

also concerning is that yeah a lot

5:34

regarding protests around Gaza and uh

5:37

really the frustration with the killing

5:40

of innocent children men and women who

5:44

were uninvolved with Hamas is spreading

5:47

around the world uh for example Colombia

5:50

University just cancelled their main

5:52

commencement ceremony The Wall Street

5:54

Journal just put out a document uh

5:56

basically showcasing that there are most

5:59

mostly left leaning groups and longtime

6:02

activists that have been helping plan

6:05

and train college students for months on

6:09

how to conduct more organized

6:11

demonstrations one of the groups

6:13

possibly involved could be the national

6:15

students of Justice in Palestine which

6:18

they've been around for about 20 years

6:19

300 chapters there's talk about Google

6:22

Drive circulating about how to resist

6:24

them how to resist the police set up

6:26

encampments how to how to demonstrate or

6:29

protest or get the most media involved

6:31

because remember the idea of any good

6:33

protest is that you cause the

6:36

cancellation of events so it's not a

6:38

surprise a lot of these protests are

6:40

happening right around uh commencement

6:43

uh events and ultimately praza

6:47

protesters come from this angle of hey

6:51

we need to force resistance in America

6:54

because really what you're doing is by

6:57

forcing resistance in America you're

6:59

show knowing that there's nothing wrong

7:00

with actually being a member of Hamas

7:03

and instead by being a member of Hamas

7:06

you're really just somebody who is on

7:07

the front lines defending the

7:09

Palestinian people after all over

7:14

34,700 individuals have been killed in

7:17

the Gaza Strip and West Bank since

7:20

October 7th which was the retaliation by

7:24

Israel for about 1,400 deaths in Israel

7:28

on October 7th

7:30

2023 after the Hamas attack in Israel so

7:35

obviously you've got a very very

7:38

dramatic situation going on with anti-

7:42

uh killings in Gaza protests which

7:45

totally makes sense but at some point

7:47

those protests do rise to the level of

7:49

committing a lot of crime in the United

7:52

States via let's say graffitiing uh

7:55

police vehicles uh like this one in New

7:58

York or right outside the protests of

8:00

the Met Gala or leading to the Met Gala

8:03

you had statues historic uh statues

8:06

being graffitied as well as UCLA was

8:09

graffitied or otherwise now it's

8:12

important to remember that a lot of

8:13

folks get very frustrated when somebody

8:16

complains about graffiti being a crime

8:19

but it's very important to remember that

8:21

this doesn't mean that Wars deaths or

8:25

other crimes are not crimes I wrote this

8:27

out on purpose because there's a lot of

8:29

emotion that goes into this and

8:31

rightfully so a lot of people are dying

8:33

and a lot of innocent people are dying

8:35

but let's be clear this is not a

8:38

mutually exclusive statement and arguing

8:40

otherwise I wrote is a logical fallacy

8:43

causing property damage in America is

8:45

well beyond the First Amendment right to

8:47

free speech and protest unfortunately

8:50

some suggest that calling graffiti a

8:53

crime like vandalizing is a crime but

8:55

therefore the murder of children in Gaza

8:57

must not be a crime that is an logical

9:00

statement so we have to sort of at least

9:02

in talking and addressing the issues

9:05

remember that when we make a logical

9:07

statements what we really do is sew hate

9:09

Division and frustration so yes it is

9:12

true that the murder of innocent people

9:15

can be a crime but at the same time as

9:18

the murder of innocent people can be a

9:20

crime so can vandalism now do keep in

9:23

mind that in let's say you

9:25

see now obviously keep in mind if there

9:28

is a crime committed on a UCLA campus we

9:31

would expect that crime to go punished

9:34

things do get more blurry in a war torn

9:37

region but that doesn't make it okay to

9:41

see innocent people killed this is

9:44

obviously problematic and it's one of

9:46

the reasons the United States has now

9:48

delayed weapons being D essentially sold

9:52

to Israel the Biden administration had a

9:54

deal to sell about 6,500 they're called

9:58

tail kits for $260 million to Israel now

10:02

these are really interesting these are

10:03

called jdam uh tail kits basically what

10:07

you're doing is you're taking dumb bombs

10:10

which are bombs you just sort of lob or

10:12

drop onto a Target and you retrofit them

10:16

with a tail kit to make them smart bombs

10:18

which are laser and GPS guided so they

10:21

can better attack their targets now

10:24

you'd think that better targeting would

10:26

be a good thing as opposed to using and

10:28

just dumb bombs but the reality is the

10:31

Biden Administration has been skirting

10:34

some of the notification requirements to

10:37

let Congress know exactly what kind of

10:39

arm sales are actually going on to

10:42

Israel some other deals currently in the

10:45

works $700 million for 120 mimet rounds

10:49

for tanks 500 million ve dollars for

10:52

tactical Vehicles $100 million in Mortar

10:54

rounds remember the United States

10:57

provides the most mil milary Aid to

11:00

Israel out of anyone in the world Boeing

11:04

manufactures these particular jdam kits

11:07

uh and uh the United States has

11:09

pressured Israel not to go into Rafa as

11:12

Israel is despite all of this now going

11:14

into Rafa the Biden Administration is

11:16

trying to pull back uh some of that

11:19

potential funding uh and Aid now there

11:22

also ceasefire talks right now Monday

11:25

night uh strikes against Hamas targets

11:28

did take place though in Rafa right

11:31

after these last minute ceasefire deals

11:33

were beginning to come together at least

11:36

per Hamas Al jazer reported that there

11:39

was a three-phase deal of temporary s

11:42

cessation in hostilities a withdrawal of

11:45

Israeli forces to the east so the less

11:48

populated regions of Israel sorry not of

11:51

Israel of the Gaza Strip move Israeli

11:54

troops towards those less populated

11:56

regions get captives were starting to be

12:00

released stop Flying Israeli war planes

12:03

over Gaza for 10 to 12 hours a day more

12:07

as more hostages are released phase two

12:09

end hostilities permanently completely

12:11

withdraw the IDF and phase three the 3

12:14

to 5 year reconstruction of the Gaza

12:16

Strip which as we've already seen on

12:18

social media Black Rock and some

12:21

Architects and real estate firms are

12:22

already drawing up beachfront mansions

12:25

for

12:27

which very uncens sensitive right now

12:30

especially given the pain and suffering

12:32

happening in the Gaza Strip and West

12:34

Banks now note the Israeli media is

12:36

suggesting that hamas's support for the

12:38

deal is just a ruse for the deal to

12:41

suggest Israel is not accepting the deal

12:44

when the reality Israel says is no no no

12:46

no that's not the deal we came up with

12:49

so you've still got some challenges

12:50

going on especially given that now you

12:53

have Israel rolling into uh the Rafa

12:56

Crossing and taking control of the

12:58

Israeli side of that Crossing into Egypt

13:01

uh it doesn't help that there are images

13:03

circulating of this Israeli tank running

13:07

over essentially the welcome to Gaza

13:09

sign and crushing it uh and running over

13:12

the Palestinian flags and then

13:15

Palestinian flags at the border being

13:16

replaced by Israeli flags that probably

13:19

doesn't help attentions and hate it

13:21

probably also doesn't help that Egypt is

13:24

setting up a

13:26

100,000 massively walled compound just

13:30

for refugees and this is an example of

13:33

what refugee camps look like this is not

13:36

a pleasant living it is obviously better

13:39

to live in this situation than to live

13:42

under the threat of aerial bombardment

13:44

and then seeing your family gets

13:45

destroyed and torn apart uh because

13:48

Hamas might be hiding amongst you but

13:52

this this is clearly clearly a human

13:55

travesty and ultimately people living in

13:58

tent cities uh in uh in in you know in

14:01

Egypt or in southern uh Gaza is not

14:07

sustainable now moving on from what's

14:10

happening in Israel and the Gaza Strip

14:12

obviously we I certainly hope that the

14:14

ceasefire deal uh can be held maintained

14:18

it's worth talking briefly about Apple

14:21

Apple waren Buffett sold some apple and

14:24

a lot of folks are freaking out that

14:26

maybe that's a sign that the good days

14:29

for Apple are officially over well Apple

14:32

did have a rough q1 and while we have

14:35

the iPad event happening today for Apple

14:37

so stay tuned for some really cool

14:39

announcements uh Warren Buffett suggests

14:41

that he sold a 133% stake in Apple for

14:45

tax reasons to offset some of the other

14:48

gains that they had and they still

14:50

expect Apple to be the largest holding

14:52

for Brookshire hathway by the end of

14:54

2024 I also personally still anticipate

14:57

that Apple will release their own

14:59

product refresh cycle with enhanced AI

15:02

Focus chips yet some of this obviously

15:05

will be branding of course I hope they

15:07

also provide a lot of AI functionality

15:10

and value especially with that chatbot

15:13

that I won't mention so it doesn't

15:14

appear uh and turn on on all of your

15:17

Apple devices right now isn't that right

15:20

okay Google oh I shouldn't have done

15:22

that I'm sorry okay anyway so uh Apple's

15:26

uh chip Center is um called apple chips

15:30

in data centers this is apparently a

15:33

secret initiative that has been going on

15:35

for a couple years now and this is a

15:37

partnership of apple with TSM to

15:38

manufacture their own uh data center

15:41

chips to run AI keep in mind that Apple

15:45

has been using neural net style chips M

15:47

series chips since

15:49

2017 so they already kind of have ai

15:53

chips but they just don't have ai chips

15:56

running on your Dev device chatbots yet

16:01

or other useful AI tools that we're

16:05

already using on sort of a daily basis

16:07

that we're relying on servers to send

16:08

our information to like sending our

16:11

information to GPT just to get it

16:14

back that obviously creates some data

16:16

privacy concerns that Apple might be

16:18

able to capitalize on personally I'm

16:21

still pretty bullish Apple after I heard

16:23

about the on device AI that they've been

16:26

planning in uh some uh p papers they

16:29

released about a month ago broke those

16:31

down over on ec.com now let's talk Trump

16:34

versus Biden Trump versus Biden the

16:37

biggest issues always seem to come down

16:40

to the Battleground States Arizona

16:42

Georgia Michigan Nevada Pennsylvania

16:44

Wisconsin in general election polls the

16:47

last two general election polls that we

16:49

saw Saturday May 4th May the 4th be with

16:51

you and Cinco de Mayo actually showed

16:54

Biden in the lead you had Biden in the

16:57

lead by one point in the ABC epos poll

17:00

and then the tip poll you had Biden in

17:02

the lead by two but I found that really

17:04

interesting because when you jumped over

17:06

to what was going on in Battleground

17:08

States look at the Battleground States

17:11

Donald Trump smashing Joe Biden in every

17:15

single one of those States on top of

17:18

that I thought it was very interesting

17:20

that the financial times even though

17:22

suggesting Donald Trump had a 8% lead

17:26

created a survey to find out what people

17:29

thought about what caused inflation and

17:33

I personally thought this was an obvious

17:35

one covid policies to a rapid expansion

17:39

of money Printing and therefore well

17:41

essentially inducing a substantial

17:43

amount of delay demand while at the same

17:45

time shutting down factories due to

17:47

covid so you're reducing Supply while

17:49

increasing the capacity for people to

17:51

demand products and services I thought

17:54

Co was very obvious as the greatest

17:56

reason for inflation but apparently

17:58

wasn't Co was actually only here at

18:01

about 35ish per of the reason that

18:04

people gave it's actually about 58% of

18:07

the reason that people gave being greed

18:11

flation now I was really surprised by

18:13

that greed flation being a driver in my

18:17

opinion really shows a little quite a

18:19

bit of a fundamental misunderstanding of

18:22

Economics greed inflation is really only

18:24

possible when the consumer's willingness

18:26

to pay increases to the point that

18:28

business businesses feel they can raise

18:30

prices and not lose business solely and

18:33

so one Corporation Being Greedy will be

18:38

destroyed by competition see in my

18:41

opinion greed flation is only possible

18:44

when companies raise prices without an

18:47

increase in the consumer's willingness

18:49

to pay so in other words if you're

18:51

willing to pay $0 for this coffee mug

18:54

but the corporation says screw you $11

18:57

$12 $13 that would be greed flation but

19:01

if my willingness to pay goes up because

19:03

I have more money and I'm willing to now

19:05

pay $15 for this mug and a corporation

19:08

goes okay

19:10

$11 $12 and nobody's demanding this

19:14

product less then what you have is not

19:17

greed inflation what you have is

19:19

inflation because everyone's prices are

19:21

going up in other words your dollar L

19:25

lost purchasing power that's driven by

19:28

government government spending and

19:30

fiscal money printing so to speak one

19:33

Corporation becoming greedy will

19:35

generally be destroyed by competition

19:37

all Starbucks in China y'all need to

19:40

wake up Starbucks in China even Howard

19:42

Schultz had a message to the board of

19:45

Starbucks and said look the brand is the

19:47

foundation of Starbucks and Starbucks is

19:50

an inflection point and if you really

19:52

want to know what's going on put a

19:54

freaking apron on and get in the stores

19:56

you want to know why you missed earnings

19:58

get on the ground level find out are

20:00

people happy are people willing to pay

20:02

the prices that you're charging for your

20:04

premium brand or do you need to maybe

20:06

recognize he got competition in China it

20:09

was a good piece by Howard Schultz he

20:10

wasn't exactly that blunt but that's

20:12

basically what he meant so really

20:15

surprised there on Greed flation have to

20:17

say anyway uh Donald Trump a little bit

20:20

more on Trump Donald Trump was

20:22

threatened with jail time for the hush

20:24

money gag order violations apparently

20:27

he's violated the

20:29

judicially imposed gag order 10 times

20:32

now I know a lot of trump supporters say

20:34

hey but you know this is an illegal uh

20:36

you know imposition against him anyway

20:38

and a lot of Biden supporters say no

20:40

they're just enforcing the law we we

20:42

don't really need to get into that what

20:44

we need to recognize this he's been

20:45

sanctioned 10 times 1,000 bucks for each

20:47

violation it's the maximum penalty

20:49

allowed and of course now that the judge

20:53

is rising this to a level of suggesting

20:55

look the next step is jail time I

20:57

thought to myself that probably honestly

20:59

just be perfect for the Trump campaign

21:01

because of the amount of political

21:04

donations they would get if Donald Trump

21:07

spent a night in jail wild time we live

21:10

in I recognize that sending a former

21:12

president to jail would seem like

21:15

incredibly remarkable but again it would

21:18

be great for Donald Trump's donations

21:20

and Donald Trump I believe knows this

21:23

and this is why he's already started to

21:24

Brand the potential of him spending a

21:26

night in jail he's sort of free running

21:29

that's right they might throw me in jail

21:31

why why would he be willing to spend a

21:33

night in jail quote our constitution is

21:36

much more important than jail it's not

21:39

even close I'll give that sacrifice any

21:42

day talk about a master of marketing you

21:46

have to give him credit where that

21:48

credit is

21:49

due he basically he's basically walking

21:53

himself into jail but then branding it

21:55

as defending the Constitution

21:58

I mean I get it he's defending his First

22:01

Amendment right to free speech which

22:03

does violate court rules but then again

22:06

his argument is that he shouldn't be in

22:07

court in the first place does that make

22:10

it right that is up to you but what is

22:13

not up to us is what Vladimir Putin does

22:16

with his nuclear drills Putin has

22:18

ordered his military to rehearse

22:22

tactical nuclear weapon usage in combat

22:25

this is in response to Emmanuel macron

22:28

suggesting that Europe could die this

22:32

was part of an April 28 speech where he

22:35

suggested that nuclear weapons should be

22:37

part of the European Defense debate now

22:42

mcon also hosted Zin ping in

22:45

Paris where China promised to help

22:48

deescalate tensions with the well Russia

22:53

Ukraine disaster but apparently macron's

22:56

statements on nuclear weapons just

22:58

aggravated Putin even more it's quite

23:02

unfortunate in other news Scott Galloway

23:05

put this really good head piece together

23:07

it was like 30 minutes long I I

23:09

encourage you to watch it but uh I'll

23:11

give you a quick overview He suggests if

23:14

we love our children why is it so much

23:16

harder for younger generations to

23:18

participate in buying cars going to

23:20

college or acquiring housing and income

23:23

and he talks about America's war on the

23:25

young he talks about how why is it fair

23:29

that today it's so much harder for

23:32

people to go to college given that it

23:35

takes about 42% of people's income to go

23:37

to college today whereas for our

23:39

grandparents it cost about 14% or our

23:42

parents it cost

23:43

177% or housing prices used to cost

23:46

three times our income now they cost

23:49

seven times our income we must hate our

23:52

children if this is the economy that

23:54

we're okay with this is Scott Galloway's

23:57

point of view and what he argues is that

24:00

there's been this massive wealth

24:01

transfer of those under 30 controlling

24:04

about 12% of us wealth to under 7% today

24:08

a big transition over the last 40 to 50

24:10

years He suggests that wealth is being

24:13

concentrated amongst older generations

24:15

and older Generations are purposefully

24:17

building fewer homes to preserve their

24:19

wealth while at the same time expecting

24:21

younger generations to pay for them

24:23

through entitled program entitlement

24:25

programs such as Social Security of

24:27

course the flips side argument is that

24:29

Social Security was paid into by older

24:31

generations and they're just getting

24:33

back what they were promised obviously

24:35

the sustainability of Social Security is

24:37

something that's really important and

24:39

should be talked about especially for

24:41

those who don't actually need Social

24:43

Security but collected but there's also

24:46

the fairness question of they did pay

24:47

into it however getting entitlement

24:51

reform done is basically almost possible

24:53

impossible rather and that's something

24:55

that Scott Galloway talked about as well

24:57

because older Generations vote and Scott

25:01

Galloway rightly puts it by saying

25:04

that's representative democracy for you

25:06

nobody wants to touch entitlement reform

25:09

because they know as soon as they touch

25:10

something like Social Security like

25:12

raising the distribution age for Social

25:14

Security they won't get elected now

25:16

something that Scott Galloway does talk

25:18

about that I think is really valuable is

25:21

talking about how colleges have

25:22

basically become hedge funds offering

25:25

classes because they collect so much

25:27

money but barely increase enrollment

25:30

it's like they collect more money to

25:32

teach fewer children per dollar received

25:34

and so what we should do is figure out

25:36

how to reduce tuitions expand enrollment

25:39

and increase vocational programs like

25:41

trade schools big fan here by the way

25:44

when I ran for governor of California I

25:46

ran in the prom premise basically and

25:49

promise of creating future schools which

25:51

would leave every Californian graduating

25:53

with a trade skill at 18 capable of

25:57

functioning in today's society

25:58

on day one out of college or out of high

26:01

school rather without College practical

26:04

skills by 18 that's what's missing from

26:06

today's curricula including Financial

26:08

education is it really that hard

26:11

apparently yes it is Scott Galloway also

26:14

moves on to suggest that Mark Zuckerberg

26:16

is evil and we must hate our children

26:18

because no child should be on social

26:20

media under 16 there are definitely a

26:23

lot of divisive feelings that come out

26:25

of using Instagram Tik Tok and X I found

26:28

so I try to limit my personal usage to

26:30

those devices or apps rather to just

26:33

using them on a web browser on a

26:34

computer because I just find that is

26:37

less of a Time suck but that's another

26:40

issue that really everybody can debate

26:42

leave a comment down below for now

26:44

though let's talk economic data and then

26:46

paler real GDP is currently estimated at

26:49

3.3% which is pretty remarkable uh given

26:53

that it feels like the economy should be

26:56

showing signs of softening but it just

26:59

isn't maybe in the labor market it's

27:01

starting to and maybe some cracks are

27:04

starting to form but 3.3% pretty strong

27:07

the Cleveland nowcast suggests that

27:09

headline inflation might go negative

27:11

next month I personally think a lot of

27:13

that has to do with the collapse in oil

27:15

prices so if you really want to know

27:17

what's going on with headline inflation

27:18

do also pay attention to the collapse in

27:20

oil prices all of April has had oil

27:23

prices collapse and remember this gets

27:25

measured in thirds so they'll take the

27:27

first third second third and last third

27:29

average the oil prices and factor that

27:31

into headline inflation for Gas Energy

27:35

expenditures and otherwise so we should

27:37

have some hit to the downside on that

27:40

headline but the nowcast still shows

27:42

core running at about 3.6% annualized

27:46

which is pretty hot so you do have some

27:49

issues you still got inflation moving up

27:51

TS Lombard hits on inflation break evens

27:54

basically amplifying this as well

27:56

consider this up here in inflation break

27:59

evens just shows you the trend yes it's

28:02

come down recently but this runup has

28:05

really thrown a little bit of a rench

28:06

into the idea of Immaculate disinflation

28:09

TS Lombard uh is uh is suggesting you're

28:12

seeing this in the United Kingdom as

28:14

well not great uh but they are arguing

28:17

that the looser Financial conditions

28:19

that we've seen just don't matter to the

28:21

FED right now sock gen thinks we're not

28:24

going to see rate Cuts in 2025 and JP

28:26

Morgan says you know what us exce

28:29

exceptionalism could keep the USD High

28:32

relative to other currencies which is a

28:35

little bit of a problem for earnings in

28:37

the United States since earnings in the

28:39

US would take more of a foreign exchange

28:41

hit TS or JP Morgan rather thinks that

28:45

we're in a place where earnings

28:47

expectations or consensus expectations

28:50

are just way too high going into the

28:51

second quarter earnings obviously we

28:53

just got q1 earnings and so we've got a

28:56

little bit of work to do before we get

28:58

to Q2 but Q2 earnings could just be too

29:01

high one of my favorite analogies that I

29:03

like to use is just think about Apple

29:05

with an iPad let's say you buy an Apple

29:07

iPad for 1,000 bucks in America Apple

29:10

gets roughly

29:11

$1,000 but if you buy an Apple iPad for

29:15

the equivalent of let's say

29:17

$1,300 in France that has to be

29:19

converted into dollars and if those

29:22

dollars convert into $1,000 great no

29:25

foreign exchange hit but what if they

29:27

only convert into

29:30

$900 well now all of a sudden you're

29:32

selling those iPads for a $1,000

29:34

discount in Europe and a stronger dollar

29:37

could hurt earnings more than we would

29:40

hope so something to keep in mind FX

29:43

hits could continue in future quarters

29:47

and that's the bottom line there Why Us

29:50

exceptionalism what does that mean

29:52

basically rest of the world's going into

29:54

recession as our GDP looks like this

29:59

3.3% pretty wild now I know a lot of

30:02

folks pay attention to q1 GDP numbers or

30:05

paid attention to it this is true q1 GDP

30:08

numbers were pretty low 1.6% but a lot

30:11

of that was driven by a lack of buildup

30:14

a lack of inventory buildup and a lack

30:16

of exports to other countries actually

30:19

reiterating the weakness abroad and

30:22

suggesting that companies feel a little

30:24

more comfortable in their supply chains

30:26

in America now let's wrap this up by

30:28

talking about paler take a look at paler

30:32

Wall Street greed takes over again I say

30:34

the reason for this is paler stock

30:37

yesterday was up 8% down 11% in

30:39

premarket today now why would that be

30:42

after all they beat on q1 EA they beat

30:46

on their fiscal year guide gross margin

30:48

81.6% net at

30:50

16.7 their sales and administration

30:53

growth literally grew by 3% while they

30:56

had headline growth growing by 20

30:58

.7% they have over $127 million of free

31:01

cash flow so you're actually doing

31:03

really well as a SAS business here

31:05

you're taking 16.7% to the bottom line

31:08

your profitable largely free cash

31:11

flowing business Mega balance sheet

31:14

what's happening well you're seeing a

31:16

little bit of a Slowdown in certain

31:19

sectors where are those sectors

31:22

specifically Europe and outside of the

31:25

United States in fact they try on not to

31:28

highlight outside the United States

31:30

because headwinds with GDP quote

31:32

trending towards zero they suggest are

31:34

slowing down adoption of uh their

31:37

company's uh services in other countries

31:41

and so a Slowdown around the rest of the

31:43

world is affecting pal here we've only

31:45

got about a quarter of their revenue

31:47

coming from the United States so that's

31:50

a little bit of an oopsy doopsy when it

31:52

comes to their ability to expand their

31:56

revenues especially with this line right

31:58

here this line was definitely one form

32:01

of a nail in the coffin for Palante here

32:03

on the downside only about 10% of

32:05

companies actually have ai ready data so

32:08

while they're closing more deals they're

32:10

not making as much money up front

32:12

because they're actually having to help

32:14

companies get into the correct data

32:18

first and as a result you're getting

32:21

some

32:22

frustration like a lot of what slows us

32:25

down is people pretending they're

32:27

competing with us

32:28

this feels a little bitter you actually

32:30

have some hate fighting going on by the

32:32

CEO as well in the earnings call he

32:35

literally says why do they fight for

32:38

paler why do why do they every time

32:41

someone writes something unique paler

32:43

has gone magga paler doesn't have a

32:45

product paler doesn't have a margin or

32:47

margins uh I'm sure in this quarter

32:49

palente tier's growth is decelerating

32:51

despite the fact that it's obviously

32:52

crushing it in America see that

32:55

frustration yes we're winning in America

32:57

but the rest of the world is slowing

32:58

down and people hate on paler you feel a

33:01

lot of tension coming out from the

33:03

executive staff they literally say on

33:05

their earnings call we knew it was

33:06

we're winning in America we're

33:08

doing really well and it's true outside

33:10

of their strategic commercial contracts

33:12

which were basically their spack

33:14

Investments they're doing really well

33:16

they're growing I mean look at this in

33:18

the US only they're growing 68%

33:20

year-over-year

33:21

22% sequentially really impressive

33:23

that's like 88% annual growth right uh

33:26

their US government contracts are not as

33:29

fast you're really only growing about

33:30

12% in an annual side on the government

33:32

growth side but the US commercial

33:35

contracts are killing it again us

33:37

exceptionalism we're winning in the US

33:40

we need to move Beyond AI chat Bots I

33:42

love this uh it is music to my ears what

33:46

paler numbers are and what they're

33:48

saying about America but the Slowdown

33:50

abroad and this nail in the coffin right

33:53

here are well both of these are problems

33:57

for pound here so anyway there you have

34:00

a complete breakdown hopefully you like

34:03

this meet Kevin report I tried to give

34:05

you both facts and my opinions let me

34:07

know what you think about that paler

34:09

bottom line we'll do some bottom lines

34:11

here at the end paler bottom line I'm

34:13

actually bullish on paler I think as the

34:16

rest of the world goes into recession

34:18

you're just going to create some byy the

34:20

dip opportunities for a company like

34:21

paler they're not going BK anytime soon

34:24

my take the islamophobia I think is

34:27

really taken out of context around the

34:30

world especially in the United Kingdom

34:32

but I do recognize that more votes are

34:35

being picked up by Pro pro- Muslim

34:37

candidates because of the pain that is

34:40

happening in Gaza and it breaks my heart

34:43

to see the death of Innocence uh in Gaza

34:46

and so I do blame Israel for that death

34:50

that really feels

34:52

indiscriminate but let's be real what

34:55

happened on October 7th was disgusting

34:58

it should never happen to any country

35:00

does it justify the 30X killing of

35:06

probably 40 to 50% of that being

35:09

children absolutely not I have seven

35:12

children and it breaks my heart does

35:15

that justify graffitiing our campuses or

35:18

our statues

35:22

no I hope the peace deal can go through

35:25

I think we're close to a peace deal I'm

35:27

hopeful but then again I was hopeful

35:30

that this war would have ended a long

35:32

time ago I think Vladimir Putin is

35:34

waving his ra sabber again and I think

35:37

it's actually probably good that we

35:38

start pulling back on some of the

35:40

weapons funding I think the

35:42

military-industrial complex has gone a

35:44

little too far as far as the Trump

35:47

versus Biden election well let's just

35:50

say polls are polls and anything can

35:52

change anytime soon I really agree with

35:55

Scott Galloway on making sure that we

35:56

can get more functional education in our

35:58

schools and I hope it happens sooner

36:01

rather than later thanks so much for

36:03

watching this me Kevin Rapport we'll see

36:06

you in the next one goodbye why not

36:08

advertise these things that you told us

36:09

here I feel like nobody else knows about

36:11

this we'll we'll try a little

36:12

advertising and see how go

36:14

congratulations man you have done so

36:15

much people love you people look up to

36:17

you Kevin PA financial analyst and

36:19

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

36:21

your

36:22

take even though I'm a licensed

36:24

financial adviser licensed real estate

36:25

broker and becoming a stock broker this

36:26

video is not personalized advice for you

36:28

it is not tax legal or otherwise

36:30

personalized advice tailored to you this

36:32

video provides generalized perspective

36:33

information and commentary any

36:35

thirdparty content I show shall not be

36:37

deemed endorsed by me this video is not

36:39

and shall never be deemed reasonably

36:40

sufficient information for the purposes

36:42

of evaluating a security or investment

36:43

decision any links or promoted products

36:45

are either paid affiliations or products

36:47

or Services we may benefit from I also

36:49

personally operate an actively managed

36:50

ETF I may personally hold or otherwise

36:53

hold long or short positions in various

36:55

Securities potentially including those

36:57

mentioned in this video however I have

36:58

no relationship to any issuer other than

37:00

house Haack nor am I presently acting as

37:02

a market maker make sure if you're

37:03

considering investing in house Haack to

37:04

always read the PPM at house.com

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