Fed **JUST** Threatened ENTIRE Economy | F**king IDIOTS!!

oh boy I have to say I think the Federal

Reserve is walking us into a landmine

and it's not good so far you had your

own pow suggest hey we don't really know

maybe the weak jobs number was because

of hurricanes and Strikes and they

totally ignored the negative revisions

for the two months prior to that but

listen to what cook just said over at

the

FED cook just said that the

hurricanes and

strikes affected the jobs Market in

October overall growth remains solid and

recent weakness is because of transitory

effects they say the labor market has

largely normalized continued growth in

the economy with slowing inflation means

the economy is moving better and more

strongly than expected which means that

the Federal Reserve quote could see a

scenario for the FED

pausing because risks are mostly

inbalance and if there are no downside

numbers because they're just ignoring

the bad numbers oh revisions and bad

October numbers no no no we don't see

anything then all they're going to do is

increase the restrictiveness of this

economy in the face of the economy

actually weakening which is literally

what they did in 2007 it's the same

thing that happened in 2007 they cut by

50 basis points markets rally

everybody's like fed save the day soft

Landing stocks alltime highs greatest

economy in the world 3% GDP blah blah

blah blah blah a year later all those

estimates are revised down into the

toilet and you're in a big fat recession

now we're not going to have a real

estate recession this cycle ability to

repay Dodd Frank act these things have

made mortgages so hard to get over the

last 10 years you've got highly

qualified people holding these mortgages

especially your conventional loans your

5 10 15 20 30% down loans uh even your

rental property loans they're very very

hard to get right now uh and they have

been for the last decade really this is

why we say the rich keep getting richer

but this is not going to be a real

estate lead cycle whatever this cycle is

however long it takes is probably going

to be stock and valuation driven

potentially banking or financial related

I have no idea nobody knows that's why I

call it a Black Swan maybe it's Japan

again you know after all we're we're

going back to these all-time highs on uh

the JPY versus the USD which is exactly

what happened in the lead into the

disaster we had in August USD to JPY do

a quick little Google of that zoom out

to the last year and what do you have

boom trending to those highs that we had

when the stock market peaked out on July

10th trending right back to there and as

soon as the stock market started selling

down in America you started blowing up

the Japanese carry trade and then it

became sort of

self-fulfilling but anyway the problem

with with this and I I you know I was

talking to course members about this

this morning in addition to a robotic

stock you're looking at I I think some

of you already recognize I'm like really

into robotics right now part of that is

looking at public robotic companies

which we looked at one this morning uh

in the course member live stream we went

into that in detail um and usually what

we do is we'll go through the last uh

earnings reports you know a couple

earnings reports we'll go through an

annual report we'll go through earnings

calls I do this all for you so you can

kind of like passively just listen oh

okay what's the Valu what do you think

about the place like I'm not trying to

tell you what to invest in I just try to

give you the information because nobody

else actually looks at this stuff uh but

I like to do it every day and then we

have it all sorted out uh and so one of

the things that we were also talking

about though was this this potential

pump and dump that the Federal Reserve

is setting up so the pump and dump is

basically you've got Port strike and

hurricane fears in Q3 ending in

September so companies build up

inventory and much like Target they

build up inventory build build build

build and then the customers don't come

so they build it and they don't come and

then they have to lower

prices to get people to buy which is

deflation okay keep that in mind the FED

here is like the economy is so strong

everything's just uh the data is so

strong it's great but what actually

happens there you're actually increasing

the odds of deflation and by buying more

inventory you're making the data look

artificially hot because people are

buying more inventory because of

temporary factors like Port strikes so

you're overbuilding your inventory

making the FED think oh industrial

production numbers are great wow and of

course retail sales are a super lagging

indicator because people spend their

money until they lose their job

basically so then the Wall Street

Journal on the front page of the Wall

Street Journal today is talking about

how uh as a fear uh of of of Chinese

tariffs coming you basically are in a

situation where companies are starting

to build up on Goods that could be

subject to tariffs now this is a problem

because now you have a Q3 buildup of

stuff because of Port strikes and

hurricanes then you have a Q4 buildup of

stuff because oh no we might get tariffs

now you got a whole lot of stuff well

what happens when you have a whole lot

of stuff and interest rates have gone up

be you know Bond Market's gotten more

expensive because people are dumping

bonds because the data is so hot and you

know this is self-fulfilling right it's

like oh the data was hot in Q3 oh the

DAT hot in Q4 oh demand must be great

let's buy more inventory so you buy more

inventory Port strikes hurricanes

tariffs bye bye bye bye bye bye bye bye

now you have massive shelves full of

inventory now you need robots to sort it

all topic for a different video I'm

working on a VC deal as well for that

it's it's uh you know a few different

robotics plays uh this particular one

we're doing a lot of DD on it's really

really exciting stay tuned for a little

a little bit more insight on that uh

might be able to open that up to about a

100 people that's it it might actually

probably 99 because I think they count

me in that so stay tuned but anyway um

this is crazy because if you think about

this what happens in q1 well q1 if the

tariffs end up being saber rattling and

we don't have other hurricanes because

oh wow it's not hurricane season and for

whatever reason we go back to sort of

expectations being normalized like what

you have with Target where targets like

uh sales are flat or Restoration

Hardware slashing prices like crazy so

they could try to get you know their

inventory cleared then what happens is

you actually get a lower inflation

potentially deflation and B this massive

buildup of stuff stops these companies

from ordering new stuff and then all of

a sudden the industrial production

numbers go to crap then all of a sudden

you got yourself a recipe for disaster

interest rates at lies that are super

restrictive a Fed that started talking

about pausing like complete blind idiots

this is like the blind leading the D

blind it's

terrible uh and then companies go okay

well if people aren't buying and we have

a bunch of inventory start laying off q1

Q2 could be absolutely horrible horrible

now fortunately we're propped up on the

pedestal of Nvidia but we don't know how

long that's going to last the the world

we are in right now is very very

precarious this is a slowing economic

cycle I personally just every single day

I find more and more concerns where I

you know I don't say this because I have

any benefit in you being afraid trust me

there there are more benefits in in me

just being a perable every day and doing

the Dan IES it's going to 500

everything's going to 500 what's the

stock McDonald's 500 Tesla 500 ow that

hurt Nvidia 500 it's like it's like put

Dan eyeses over jav Malay at the

Whiteboard aora aora and change to 500

500 how could you hate it he's basically

telling you you're going to double your

money you're going to double your money

you're going to double your money like

who hates the person that every single

day on TV hey boys and girls guess what

the lesson today is the whole double

your

money the valuations are euphoric at

many different companies

Nvidia is actually reasonable but the

only reason I think it's reasonable is

because people are like one day this

thing's are going to freaking

pop but this is concerning because the

FED is driving us into a land mine and

Biden just authorized the use of

landmines okay I never knew they didn't

have those authorized in Ukraine versus

Russia but whatever but this Lisa Cook

update this is stupid this is exactly

what the FED should not be doing let's

look at interest rates world interest

rate probability tracker oh my gosh they

just plummeted the odds of a rate cut

from like

64% down to

55% yeah what's the yield curve 4.4 on

the

10 I'm looking at Fourth we're 10 we're

only 10 basis points uninverted when we

get to 50 to 90 basis points inverted we

could be in dramatic hell thanks solely

to the idiocy of this Federal Reserve

first inflation's transitory which which

in the long term we will look and it

will be transitory it will be it will be

a the question is how much deflation are

we going to get now because this

stupidity all yeah the weak data is

transitory you know that's a tweet right

there the

FED just said uh weak data in October is

just transitory

we're

screwed follow me on Twitter X realme

Kevin follow me on Instagram at mevin I

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yesterday I encourage you to watch it

make sure to get your Alpha report

totally for free go to meetkevin.com

Alpha I'll text and email it to you I

put little notes in there to people as

well and sometimes what I'll do is I'll

even uh I'll even pop in the message and

uh I'll just talk to some of y'all

because I find it really entertaining

like no guarantees don't join it for

that you know because I think the odds

are kind of low that we're going to per

uh personally interact thanks buddy

looking forward to getting in deeper

with

you um I don't know if I want to reply

to that one I'm going to skip that one

okay um how about another one let's see

your notes at the end uh made my day

let's

go boom sent thanks AJ shout out to AJ

Markus is expecting earnings after hours

yes mentioned

that uh let's see here what else do we

have kick some ass today dude says

Cameron you too boom

baby how about another one these are all

people who signed up over at

meetkevin.com Alpha love the message

today the Cyber truck is sick by the way

let's

go dude exclamation mark seriously best

car ever exclamation

mark thank you

all right thanks so much for being here

I love youall I'm just going to keep

trying to provide value we'll see yall

soon bye not advertise these things that

you told us here I feel like nobody else

knows about this we we'll try a little

advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin paffrath there financial

analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always

great to get your take