SHOCK Report CRITICAL to Fed JUST Out | Unexpected Result for Powell!

wow amazing numbers this morning just

out minutes ago from the ADP jobs report

I'm going to break this report down tell

you why this is amazing but also talk

about why Jerome Powell might end up

being nicer to us over the next few

months than you actually expect now this

is very exciting I believe for the

markets and boy oh boy am I excited and

ready for the markets to be happy again

but I'll also talk risk factors because

we don't want to be blindly bullish but

we also don't want to be blind to is two

updates quickly regarding how Sac today

is November 30th which means today is a

deadline for signing your DocuSign at

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investor sign your DocuSign at

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wire your funds within the next business

week to qualify for the November

warrants before that expires then for

non-accredited investors we are about to

submit to the SEC which we're very very

excited about so stay tuned for more

house hack updates okay let's get into

what just happened with the ADP jobs

report now this this is really

incredible just so you know we were

expecting and expectations are a big

deal for the market we were expecting

200

000 jobs oh come on I bet we were

expecting 200 000 jobs last month we had

237 or 9 000 it was nine thousand there

we go two hundred and thirty nine

thousand so that was the last month gain

plus 239 000. this month we were

expecting plus two hundred thousand

folks what did we end up getting holy

smokes only a hundred and twenty seven

thousand jobs now that is actually good

news for markets I understand it's not

the best news for employees because the

less jobs are actually created for

employees means less ability for

employees to demand higher wages and

they're more likely to stay at their

existing jobs because when they get laid

off or or if they end up leaving their

job they might not have a place to go if

they get laid off same thing then they

fill up other vacancies and that's

exactly what Jerome Powell wants

remember what Jerome Powell wants is

he's very frustrated that for a majority

of this year there have been two job

openings for every one employee

unemployed or person unemployed he wants

that to be about one to one so the more

we get jobs reports that come in low or

potentially start coming in negative the

better in fact Goldman Sachs believes

that we're going to see an average job

gains of just 30 000 jobs throughout

2023 and that's going to align with

potentially a recession and Jerome

Powell really having to be less

aggressive now take a look at where some

of these jobs were lost and then let's

talk about what to expect because Jerome

Powell talks today and I gotta tell you

is he gonna talk dirty to us let's talk

about that but look at this I mean we're

we we are broadly negative in some very

very very clear categories here we are

clearly negative a hundred thousand jobs

in manufacturing this is a huge negative

number here Goods producing an absolute

plummet here look a lot of people are

talking about how great Black Friday and

Cyber Monday sales are and how there are

record sales and all this when you

adjust for inflation most of the Black

Friday and Cyber Monday sales were

actually negative year over year and

companies are stocked to the wits end

with product you probably saw my Black

Friday video and if you didn't I

encourage you to go watch it because I

think deflation is imminent with some of

the madness that we're seeing but this

is reiterating that manufacturing jobs

losses of 100 000 corporate jobs 77 000

finance jobs thirty four thousand uh

information jobs 25 000 jobs huge

weakness in this number here well below

expectations of course the one area

that's still booming and this is no

surprise is Leisure and Hospitality this

is just expected to continue to Boom as

people right now are starting to move

from spending money they have to

spending borrowed money by borrowing

more money on credit cards or using

personal loans if you want to get afraid

go look at sofi's earnings and you see

their personal loan growth it has

exploded because people are borrowing

money and spending it now fortunately

people are still paying down these loans

but then uh and we're actually seeing a

rising rate of loan pay down but then

you wonder hey if you borrow a hundred

thousand dollars just as an example it's

easier for you to pay down other debt

right but you kind of just replace some

debt with new debt and now you actually

potentially have more debt it's crazy

and it's fascinating but there's no

doubt that the economy is slowing down

and we've got to talk about that in

Jerome Powell but first let's look at

this briefly here this is the median

change in annual pay year over year job

changer is still sitting at 15.1 percent

twice as much as job stayers but when

you start getting negative reports like

this what happens people stay where's

the most inflation well tentatively for

employees it seems to be in trade

transportation and utilities coming in

at about eight point one percent so

we'll see but this is a very

disappointing Report with actually look

at this large Style accomplishments

being the big job losers here and small

establishments only a black screen of

death here only medium establishment uh

saw uh real job gains here between 50

and 249 employees really interesting

especially given a Leisure and

Hospitality a lot of restaurants have

staff of between 50 to 200. all right

now Jerome Powell what to expect Jerome

Powell speaks today November 30th at uh

at 10 30 Pacific time that is 1 30

Eastern Time here's what to expect Joe

Powell is going to give us probably

hints on getting a 50 basis point hike

in December of course he's going to tell

us that inflation is his top priority

and that they are not going to relent

that they're not going to Pivot anytime

soon keep in mind when the FED talks

pivot what they're saying is we're not

going to reduce rates anytime soon we're

going to keep rates higher for longer

he's got to keep talking the talk to

make sure markets realize no no we're

not stopping until inflation comes down

he's got to do that but

what do I think might be different this

time I actually think Jerome Powell can

take the foot off the aggressiveness gas

pedal a little bit I think he could talk

a little bit nicer to markets and the

reason I believe that is because we're

seeing substantial softness in the

housing market real estate agents a

third of them can't pay their rent

because there aren't enough deals to go

along the private plane Market the

private car market all of these are

coming to almost a standstill you look

at the housing market and I don't

understand why why gov the government is

like this but there they just came out

with the uh September numbers minus one

percent 1.2 percent on a month over

month basis for Real Estate uh purchase

prices or sales prices this is kind of

like what we saw in 2009 and it took

until 2011. for the real estate market

to bottom and that's the last time we

saw real estate prices drop over one

percent uh on a month over month basis

month over month one percent means

roughly 12 a year roughly that's

annualized

that's a lot for real estate real estate

moves a lot slower than the stock market

where obviously we could see 12 stock

market moves in a day that's why it's

important to diversify into uh other

things but

wow okay what is Jerome Powell

potentially going to say well again

very clear mission on inflation but

break even in expectations for inflation

have been coming down both the consumer

expectations for inflation have been

stable they ticked up a little bit in

the preliminary and then the final they

tick down a little bit so we're kind of

oscillating but we're relatively well

anchored and Market expectations for

inflation measured by The Five-Year

break-even are back to where we were in

September which is really a good thing

that we're seeing it stable it was

Rising there for a while and that's why

Jerome Powell talked pretty aggressively

to US during that last press conference

in addition to an idiot reporter making

a terrible mistake telling Jerome Powell

all the markets rallying because of what

you're saying because they had started

talking about we're going to respect the

lags of our policy and Jerome Powell let

us have it telling us how no progress

has been made over the last year we're

not backing down until we finish the

fight he went really aggressive I

actually think because he went so

aggressive when we got the minutes it

was clear they wanted us to clearly see

that they think the odds of a recession

are now just as likely as not that was

the big takeaway from the minutes last

time and they started having other

federal reserve banks come out and say

we might end up in a recession here

because we might be tightening too

aggressively and maybe it's worth being

a little bit more patient now

doesn't mean lower rates but it might

mean hey look let's maybe slow down a

little bit go to 50 basis points you

could always tighten more now we have to

be careful here because I will tell you

this it is easier for the FED to loosen

than it is for the FED to tighten

tightening is hard and sure they could

come out and rug pull the markets and

just raise rates one or two percent but

that generally is unlikely they're more

likely to cut rates like they did during

the pandemic from say two and a half

percent to zero overnight which they did

on an emergency meeting I'll never

forget it because they covered it

but wow

I actually think Jerome Powell knows

that at this point the damage is done

and the market is convinced inflation is

a big priority but what did we just have

in Europe and this jobs report that came

out today

signs that it might be okay for the FED

to at least talk less dirty to for to US

inflation finally inflected down by the

largest amount today in the Eurozone

it's still over it's still at 10 percent

uh it's still incredibly High

but the change was the largest drop that

we've seen in 17 months to the downside

in inflation in Europe

and it's potentially a sign that maybe

we've hit a peak in Europe for inflation

just like we hope we've hit a peak for

inflation in America

in October

of course we got the October report here

in November and we're going to get the

November report in December mark your

calendars for December 13th and even

though I believe it would be okay for

Jerome Powell to relax a little bit with

his uh aggressiveness

and we might see a little bit of green

in markets because of that and he might

be okay with that he I think he has a

lot of control over that

I do think markets are likely to get

tentative again in the week prior to CPI

which means we really only got

potentially a week of green and then the

CPI nervousness ticks in again because

CPI is December 13th and we're already

at the last day of November so we're

within two weeks of that CPI report and

everybody's gonna be paying attention to

that one because we could have two in a

row now of inflation finally coming down

just like it came down in October just

like producer price prices came down

just like inflation in the Eurozone is

coming down just like the real estate

market is stalling the car market is

stalling layoffs are happening this jobs

report was pretty terrible today the ADP

report we're going to have the the

official jobs report as well in two days

from the Bureau of Labor Statistics I'll

be covering that live on Friday at 5 30

a.m there's a lot pointing to the

downside

and that's why I think it would be

reasonable for the FED to lay off on the

harshness because so much is already

happening the damage is really starting

to come in hard here in October November

and I think it's okay for him to kind of

play this Balancing Act where it's kind

of like okay okay it got a little too

aggressive you know we're we're starting

to look pretty good we're confident

inflation is going to come down maybe

maybe we see what he says right but

Market goes up a little bit okay okay

let's let's keep it there let's keep

there oh well we gotta wait for the next

report oh let's keep it there right

they're playing the fiddle right now

okay we're the ones getting fiddled

and I don't like getting fiddled

but

what are you gonna do when you're in and

you're looking for pricing power anyway

thanks so much for watching folks

check out househack via the link down

below we'll see in the next one good

luck and goodbye