Trump JUST Responded on Iran | U.S. Strike Update

So, the bombing against Thran continues

with multiple videos uh over our United

States night showing uh explosions and

uh air strikes throughout Tehranian

territory. You can see smoke in the

distance, smoke on the left happening

overnight, all from the IDF, the uh

Israeli Defense Forces and their air

force. Uh so far though, no strike yet

from the United States. What did Donald

Trump just say about this? And what do

we think could happen next? Well, let's

break down exactly what's going on. So,

Donald Trump this morning said that the

Iranians are now begging to negotiate,

which was sort of the intention of

moving troops. Well, not necessarily

troops, but uh air force uh uh

individuals, B2 bombers, refueling facil

tankers, uh you know, aircraft tanks.

You've got uh aircraft carriers moving

into the region. a second one, our

Nimttz class carrier group is moving

into the region. You've got a lot of

assets moving into the region, which of

course is a way of trying to encourage

the Iranians to wake up and realize,

crap, we've got Diego Garcia with B2

bombers and potentially 30 lb bunker

busting bombs at the same time as we've

got American refueling tankers coming

over to Qatar. This isn't great because

it all puts our Ford nuclear enrichment

facility at risk. Just so you could see

the territory. Here's the Ford nuclear

enrichment facility. Zoom out. What do

you have right here? Qatar. Zoom out.

And all the way over here under the

Maldes, you have uh Diego Garcia. Let's

just throw that up on the calendar or on

the map right here. There it is. Diego

Garcia. Uh and on this airirstrip right

here is usually where we see our B2

bombers. Obviously, Google Maps doesn't

give us live satellite footage, although

that'd be pretty cool. Uh the thesis uh

is that B2 bombers are just a 6-hour

flight away from the Ford nuclear

facility and can get midair refueled

from Qatar. This has potentially led to

the Iranian regime reaching out to

Donald Trump begging, "No, please

don't." Uh but it's also leading to some

concerns about the existing stockpiles

around enriched uranium that Iran

already has. Trump just this morning

told us that he can't say whether or not

he will strike Iran. After all, he sort

of joked around, "Yeah, let me tell you

what time exactly I'm going to strike."

Uh, so he kind of joked with the press a

little bit around, "Of course, how I I

can't tell you." However, he said,

quote, "Iran has a lot of trouble. They

want to negotiate. They should have

negotiated. Uh, Iran reached out and

nothing is too late. The only thing

that's too late is Jerome Powell. I said

it's very late. There's a big difference

between now and a week ago. I don't know

how much longer it's going to go on.

This has led to speculation that the air

strikes that were being ramped up last

night were either potentially uh planned

for market close. So potentially after

the market closes today since tomorrow

markets are closed and you'd kind of

have a quiet 24-hour period to let the

dust settle and let relaxation come in

making this next sort of 24 to 48 hour

period quite critical for the potential

of imminent strikes by the United States

against uh Iran. He Donald Trump says

that Iran is totally defenses

defenseless. They have no air defenses

whatsoever and that his demand for

unconditional surrender means that he's

had it. they had bad intentions. And he

says, quote, "Let's see what happens."

At the same time, you've got China's

foreign minister on a call with their

Egyptian counterpart saying they're

deeply worried about the situation

potentially getting completely out of

control. At the same time, you've got uh

this Bloomberg interview with the chief

of the uh the director of the IAEA, the

International Atomic Energy Agency. They

give some really interesting insights

into what's going on with the Iranian

stockpiles of enriched uranium. Remember

uranium itself is just a rock but

becomes problematic when you enrich it

uh generally through a centrifugal

process where you over and over again

essentially spin a gaseous mixture of uh

uranium hexafflloride and and you

separate the bomb making components or

U235 from U238 which is substantially

more common uh in uranium next to U235

which is very you know small in

quantities. That said, take a look at

this. Iran apparently has 92 lbs or 409

kilos of highlyenriched

uranium. Enough highlyenriched uranium

to produce 10 nuclear warheads as

evidenced by the IAEA.

And these canisters or cylinders of

highlyenriched uranium uh were at least

according to the IAEA last stored at an

underground enrichment facility at

Esvahan. This facility has been struck

numerous times by the Israeli Air Force.

And these canisters need to be labeled

with IAEA seals at the Esvahan facility.

And this director says that they've

typically been inspecting these sites on

a daily basis in Iran. However, now that

there are Israeli air strikes against

Iran, weapons inspections or these sort

of uh uranium inspections have come to a

halt and tan has warned him that the

stockpile could be moved in the event of

an Israeli attack. Now nuclear sites are

closed. There are no inspections going

on. no normal activity can take place.

And the IAEA, while they're tracking

satellite movement to see if there's

anything indicating the movement of this

highlyenriched uranium, they do say that

they risk losing track of the existing

inventories of highlyenriched uranium

that could quote quite quickly be

further enriched to weapons grade and uh

essentially turned into a bomb. So, in

other words, we've got enough

highlyenriched, maybe not quite enough

for weapons grade, but highlyenriched

uranium they have enough of to produce

10 bombs. And this is according to IAEA

inspectors who were conducting quote

more than one visit a day to Iranian

nuclear sites. I actually thought it was

once a day. It was more than once a day.

Anyway, Iran has yet to inform the

agency about the special measures it

planned to implement to protect its

stockpile and the IAEA is monitoring via

satellites. However, again, they risk

losing track. Now, here you could see

this explosion of verified,

highlyenriched uranium stockpiles. This

is just what the IAEA

uh is is uh you know capable of tracking

or keeping measures of. They say this is

about 16 cylinders worth of

highlyenriched uranium. Notice a lot of

this really exploded after Trump's sort

of withdrawing from the JCPOA,

uh, joint comprehensive plan of action.

Uh, and what you ended up with was, you

know, Donald Trump's encouragement of

coming up with some kind of new

negotiated deal to replace the first

one, kind of like the intention to

appeal and replace Obamacare, although

Obamacare was never appealed. And of

course, there were only concepts of a

plan to replace it. But we never ended

up getting a new deal with Iran. And

this is where negotiations have recently

just spilled over from negotiations

functioning to negotiations not working.

And not only not working, but uh the

Ayatollah suggesting that they're not

willing to negotiate at all. And this is

different from what Donald Trump said

this morning, but it's worth adding to

our perspective this potential that Iran

could now move this highlyenriched

uranium, which could fit into just 16

cylinders measuring about a yard high.

So think about barrels. one yard high

and only 16 of them. It's basically one

truckload of highlyenriched uranium that

could potentially be moved to some other

clandestine facility. IAEA inspectors

have not seen any structured efforts yet

to produce a nuclear weapon. However, no

country in the world is enriching

uranium at this level. So, you kind of

have this argument from the IAEA, which

echoes what the National Intelligence

Service is saying that Iran doesn't

appear to be building a bomb, but

they're certainly enriching uranium at

these crazy high levels. That sort of

makes you scratch your head. And this is

where the IAEA says Iran has all of the

pieces of the puzzle to build a bomb.

Now, what's problematic about this is

this lack of interest uh in in Iran's

negotiation

with Donald Trump. Iran's leader stays

defiant as Trump weighs war

intervention. Uh overnight, we heard a

lot of talk, especially from Israeli

channels, that the United States had

committed to join uh strikes against uh

Iran. Obviously, that being a biased

source, we have to be careful with that.

However, it does look like positioning

from not only refueling tankers or B2

bombers suggests that strikes are

imminent. I personally believe this

could go one of two ways. It's either

the strikes are imminent against Fordo

or they're so imminent designed to get

the Ayatollah to essentially call Donald

Trump and negotiate.

Now, the latest information that we have

here from late last night is that the

Ayatollah is rejecting Donald Trump's

demands for complete capitulation and

predicting irreparable damage if the

United States joins Israel in bombarding

his country. The Ayatollah has

threatened to bomb US bases in the

region should America join uh Israel in

bombarding Iran. However, this morning,

Donald Trump is laying out this this

tone that oh, not only did they call and

want to negotiate, but they want to come

to the White House and, you know, they

want to make a deal. It's a little too

late. You know, this is a lot worse of a

situation than where we were last week.

You know, now 200 people have died in

Iran, at least, maybe even more. 24

people have died in uh in Israel. And

you're really at a place of crap. you

know, this situation has rapidly

spiraled out of control. Now, of course,

again, a lot of enthusiasm from Donald

Trump, and Donald Trump is famous for

sort of his optimism that, yeah, you

know, maybe there's still time, we can

still make a deal, and this has led to

some form of a bounce or recovery in

stocks. This morning, Donald Trump

started talking just about, you know, 30

minutes or so ago, uh, which would be

right around here. And you could see

that leading into Powell's presser later

today. There's certainly been enthusiasm

in the markets recovering some of that

negative 1% drop that we saw yesterday,

98 basis points to the downside. You're

also seeing a little bit of a movement

in the oil market suggesting, oh okay,

well may maybe it is true that the

Ayatollah reached out and maybe they are

willing to come to the NE White House

and negotiate because now you're

actually seeing oil prices fall about

1.6%.

A lot of this by the way here on the

western blend occurring just in the last

30 minutes. In fact, you could see that

oil prices were actually rising in the

opening trade as expectations were that

strikes were imminent. But Donald Trump

now providing this optimistic potential

off-ramp to say ah well, you know, maybe

there's still a chance to negotiate.

Now, Hexath is is discussing uh the

Iranian threat uh in Congress and a

second day of congressional testimony

today, but I think broadly what most

folks are worried about today is all

right, what's the next move here uh from

uh uh Iran. There is now a report that

potentially an Iranian delegation to

negotiate may have just landed in Oman.

And so much like we said in yesterday's

video with strikes seem to be imminent.

He said unless there's some kind of

rapid U-turn in negotiations, it looks

like strikes are going to happen. Now

we're all of a sudden starting to see

talk about an Iranian delegation for

negotiation just landed in Obama, more

neutral country in the Middle East. At

the same time, you're in a place of

Trump saying, "Yeah, you know, it's a

lot worse than where we were last week,

but maybe there's a chance to negotiate.

All we know is Iran cannot have a

nuclear weapon. Ultimately, the way to

end this is very simple. Iran gives up

their desire uh and processes for

enriching uranium. And all of this ends

very quickly. So in today's alpha report

to course members, I actually mentioned

best case scenario number one is that

the Ayatollah gives up before strikes.

Now, given their digin before talk from

Donald Trump this morning, their dig in

this morning and last night made that

seem unlikely, but those odds are now

rising based on an Iranian delegation

landing in Iran or Oman uh and Donald

Trump's pseudo optimistic ah there's

still hope here. There's still a chance.

Uh best case scenario number two is the

Ayatollah gives up after very limited

strikes from the United States. This

doesn't force regime regime change. It

doesn't force a replacement of of the

Iranian sovereignty. What it potentially

does is you strike the Fordo nuclear

enrichment facility. Now, what you would

be signaling to Iran is that, hey, we

can strike deep inside uh of the Fordo

nuclear enrichment facility with

precision. Uh, and that's actually the

scariest part about this is you have to

remember just because we use precisiong

guided weapons to end up striking the

Ford nuclear facility which is buried

underground you have to understand that

even though we're using a 30 pound,000

lb a 14 ton bunker busting bomb you have

to know that these bunker busting bombs

do not have a substantial blast radius

underground.

you have to actually pinpoint target the

site underground and that is

substantially difficult to accomplish.

So in other words, if you miss to the

tune of you know 10 20 yards 10 20 m

even

your uh explosive blast radius might do

absolutely nothing to the facility

underground. Much of the 30,000lb bunker

busting bomb, mind you, is just

shielding in metal to actually deliver

what's only a 5,000lb warhead. Mind you,

a 5,000lb warhead is still pretty big,

so I don't want to minimize by saying

only. But a 5,000lb warhead out of a

30,000lb bomb means the vast majority of

this bomb is just metal designed to

drill its way uh, you know, through the

very weight of itself into and through a

bunker. But you need the precision of

where that bunker is, which means you ha

you almost certainly need spies on the

ground in Iran pointing out, hey, either

spies or informants, this is exactly the

precise position of where the facility

is located under these ridges. And

again, if you miss by 20, 30 feet, you

miss the bunker. So, how do you know

which of these are fake entrances?

Right? There are expectations that some

of these access roads are fake or that

they're just tunnels that ultimately

lead to 90° turns for the facility all

the way down, which is purposefully

designed to limit that. You know, if

there was an air strike here, the blast

through that tunnel wouldn't actually

make it to the centrifugal rooms or

potentially where they're storing

highlyenriched uranium should they have

moved it. This is a very, very difficult

operation. And B2 bombers are really

only capable of carrying two of these

bombs. So, you deploy two B2 bombers

with two of these bombs. You got four

bombs. You got four chances to hit it.

But if you miss, you're coming back. B2

bombers can't even make it round trip

without a refueling trip. So, highly

dangerous operation. Uh, and and very at

risk of being witnessed. This is why I

think it's highly likely for a strike

like this to occur in the night hours.

So, you could actually refuel at night,

which presents its own risks, obviously,

but you'd probably have to refuel over

the Persian Gulf after coming from uh

the uh Diego Garcia facility uh and

airfield, refueling with air fueling

tankers over this uh Persian Gulf area

after they take off from Qatar. Uh and

then you conduct your strikes at night.

Now, it'll be nighttime around market

close uh in America. uh it'll be

nighttime, you know, around market close

in America. It'll be nighttime in uh

Iran and Israel. And we would expect

that since the market is closed

tomorrow, should negotiations, last

minute negotiations fail today, strikes

could be still imminent, but likely

after the market closes, again, market

is closed entirely tomorrow. Although

hopefully cooler heads can prevail and

we could actually convince the Ayatollah

and the Iranians to move towards

negotiations.

We'll see. Uh but uh this is uh this is

obviously a very um uh uh you know very

concerning situation. Somebody here in

the chat says those two B2 bombers could

fly from the US and back without

refueling. Not when you're carrying

60,000 lb of bombs. So go back to to GPT

or whatever you're using to look that

up. And now ask, hey, what if I'm

carrying 60,000 lb of bombs? How much

can I fly now? Can I make this round

trip from Diego Garcia? You

realistically need to refuel. Uh so, you

know, keep that in mind. Okay. Uh so, I

think as as a jet pilot, I I I really

started to learn a whole lot more about

especially in training load. You know,

when you carry full fuel and you carry

people or baggage or whatever, it really

changes your uh not only your

aerodynamics and your fuel burn, but but

also just frankly your range. Uh so,

let's see here. Uh Tom Cruz was such a

bro. He was given hints to the

Ayatollah, but the old fart was too

stupid and didn't back down in time.

Well, that's one way to put it. Uh Iran

needs to just chill. Yeah, I agree. The

something to keep in mind is that these

uh these wars, these geopolitical issues

are usually by the dips in markets. I've

I've talked about this since last Friday

when this drama started and even CNBC

was pitching it this morning. I think

they've watched a few meet Kevin videos,

but you saw this in, you know, Desert

Storm. You saw this after 9/11. You saw

this after I operation Iraqi Freedom.

Usually geopolitical issues in the

market, you know, don't don't so much

align. The only larger issue you could

have would be some kind of regime

collapse. Uh an oil price spike to over

$100 per barrel that ends up damaging

consumers. This seems to be much more

unlikely at this point, especially since

the the Ayatollah would be really smart

to just give up right now.

Uh let's see here. Somebody says jet

pilot is not a designation. Uh well,

there are type rated jet pilots, right?

So typically people uh when you look at

an FAA license, you'll actually have a

type rating for a jet. So for example,

you could be a private pilot for uh you

know, you could have your PPL, you could

have your instrument rating, you could

have your multi-engine endorsement, and

then you could have a type rating for a

jet. When you have a type rating for a

jet, you are a jet pilot by definition.

Uh okay, let's see here.

Uh what other let's see here.

Uh, let's see. Let's see. Let's see

here. What else? Uh, China is sending

planes into Iran. Okay. This is this is

I I haven't I haven't heard of this. Uh,

I think what you're talking about is

this potential for there's some flight

tracker rumors that China is is, you

know, certain like cargo planes may be

moving into Iran. Uh, I think broadly

that sort of sends a signal that there's

some form of Chinese deployment. It's

worth mentioning that uh the likelihood

of Russia and China getting involved

after precision strikes on fore I think

is low. Uh I think it would really take

almost an Israeli occupation of Iran to

get Russia and China more likely China

to be more involved in some form of

broader response and that broader

response would likely take many weeks.

So I'm I'm less concerned about that

likelihood. Although I am getting uh

another update here. the Iranian mission

to the United Nations uh just now Iran

does not negotiate under duress shall

not accept peace under duress. So this

is, you know, where you're kind of

getting these tit for tats like, okay,

like where are negotiations going to go

or people just posturing? Iranian

mission to the UN. Iran shall respond to

any threat with a counter threat and any

action with reciprocal measures. Just

doesn't sound good right now. But

anyway, this gives you an update on

everything that's going on with uh Iran

right now. Why not advertise these

things that you told us here? I feel

like nobody else knows about this. We'll

we'll try a little advertising and see

how it goes. Congratulations, man. You

have done so much. People love you.

People look up to you. Kevin Praath

there, financial analyst and YouTuber.

Meet Kevin. Always great to get your

take.