Avoid these Dangerous Stocks

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31st jack's birthday does mean prices

start going up again hey everyone me

kevin here is it time to buy the dip yet

when it comes to recovery stocks well

let's take a look at some of the latest

data and see is this the worst that it's

going to get or

is this just the beginning let's start

with airline travel first the number of

people traveling through airports has

started to plummet in fact 1.47 million

individuals took flights on tuesday

that's the fewest amount of people who

have taken trips in the last three

months now it's also worth noting that

the seven day average is down to 1.67

million down from 2 million just a month

ago

now part of this could be because of the

end of summer you do tend to get a

deceleration of air travel at the end of

summer because well vacation time's over

right but there's also and this is

reported from bloomberg through airlines

and travel reservation companies that

there's a deceleration in the number of

new bookings which generally you would

start seeing for the fall and winter and

you're seeing a deceleration of those

and you're seeing an increase in

cancellations and so

bloomberg and the airlines believe this

is directly attributable to the covet

take a look at this particular chart

here what you want to look at is the

blue line the blue line shows you the

number of travelers traveling a per day

and the white line is compared to last

year a little harder to read that one

but you could clearly see this red arrow

here and this sort of inflection point

of daily travelers on

or getting on airplanes and so i'm

always looking for okay you know is this

is this the bottom are we going to

bounce off of this is does this mean

it's time to buy we'll look at

particular stocks in just a moment but

it's also worth noting that restaurants

right now are 10 to 11 below their 2019

levels not so surprised here i would

expect to see uh you know restaurants

taking a little bit of time to get back

to 2019 levels

i would also uh expect to see some form

of decline after this this original

burst of reopening which this summer

really has felt in my opinion like this

burst of reopening and remember what

jerome powell told us like him or not i

think he had a good point when he said

once we reopen we might have this burst

of people going out again and then

people going all right all right i did

my going out again i'm still going to go

out but maybe not as much as when i

first started going out again it's like

we open up it's like i'm going back out

every day and then it's like ah okay let

me maybe go back to what i had

previously

so

then we're also seeing hotel data

decline so the average room rate decline

uh or average room rates have gone down

so prices have gone down for the last

three weeks this is worse than the

typical seasonal decline that we're

seeing this is what the hotel industry

is saying they're calling this a chill

on travel caused by delta we're also

seeing a decline in job postings for

jobs that require close contact

this would include particular jobs like

child care or even

dental offices dental offices seeing a

decline or rather a decline in job

postings so you can see this here

industries sensitive to covets such as

child care and dentistry have seen a

nearly seven percent decline in average

job postings in recent weeks a lot of

this again being attributed to delta and

the expectation is that this hiring drop

could continue into industries like

airports hotels restaurants that we'll

start seeing slower hiring there and

that if we start seeing slower hiring at

hotels airlines restaurants

then potentially that unemployment rate

could stay higher longer which if it

stays higher longer we don't get that

drop after the unemployment benefits go

away in september then maybe we don't

taper yet as soon and basically the

punch bowl at the free money party might

continue longer in other words drum

powell printing the money printer could

last longer which yesterday we talked

about how it's possible jerome powell

might not raise rates i'm sorry not

raise rates might not suggest or or

begin tapering until november and

these sorts of high frequency data could

reiterate waiting until november or who

knows if if we end up having a covert

winter could end up pushing us into

next year for a taper which i think

would lead to some euphoria in the stock

market throughout the rest of the year

here

now

israel right now regarding vaccinations

is no longer considering people

vaccinated unless they have three shots

that is they've gotten their booster

shot

we're seeing uh office occupancy so this

is something else it's gonna be another

barrier to seeing that herd immunity

right we're seeing office occupancy down

we're seeing uh bookings according to

open table at restaurants down

office occupancy let's hit this here

we've got uh take a look at this this is

office occupancy we're seeing a plummet

in office occupancy here i don't know if

you could really call it a plummet but

the rate of change is certainly

accelerating to the downside here we're

down from 34.3 at the end of july to a

uh reading around 31.3

in the middle of august here so that's

just a three week period here and we're

seeing a substantial decline in the

amount of people going back to offices

which less people go into office means

more maybe doordash and less restaurants

right so you sort of get this

compounding effect a lot of folks

obviously talking about delta regarding

this

which if we go to the delta tracker we

are starting to see a little bit of a

peak when it comes to

let's go to this screen right here when

it comes to hospitalizations it's almost

like we've hit a peak here

and an inflection point in

hospitalizations all these different

lines are different age groups seeing a

little bit of that curve beginning here

on hospitalizations which is good but

then again we are just going into winter

time here now i did think this was weird

this is uh the open tables

website rankings and uh going into

august here we've actually seen a little

bit of an explosion here

so a little bit of conflicting data here

on and so part of me is wondering are we

just seeing lagging data here of a

decline of this delta fear is delta

actually going to slow down our recovery

this winter or people over it it's worth

noting that ccl had its recent bottom

here at the end of july which is really

right before delta fears started picking

up it's almost like the market priced in

delta here and now we've had a recovery

on carnival cruise lines here hitting

higher highs higher lows which are very

very nice trend here nice channel we've

got with carnival cruise lines which

remember if you ever want to learn about

trading stocks investing money check out

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a coupon code jack's birthday august

31st 40 off uh expiring and then pricing

goes up every time so take a peek at

that let's go look at uh aal here let's

look at american airlines american

airlines you know we've had a little bit

of a bottom here also around that july

20th period another one around august

20th here it's trying to get a little

bit of a recovery here let's go to cake

just to compare see uh okay cheesecake

coming off this bottom here also around

august 20th

so you know it makes you wonder is the

stock market trying to start pricing in

a recovery early here or is the high

frequency data that we're seeing just

the beginning of delta really taking

effect now personally i'm inclined to

wait on buying into recovery stocks i

personally believe that

you know winter time is going to be

somewhat ugly for delta what we're

seeing in the south in florida and texas

and other areas along the south because

of people going inside and getting air

conditioning from the heat i think we're

going to see in the northeast the

northwest

as we go into the winter i think that's

definitely going to weigh on air travel

we have not seen a bottom yet in this

trend to the downside and people working

from home this trend of airline

reservations slowing down air travel

slowing down so unfortunately

i i don't think we're through the thick

of this yet and i think we might see

lower lows on all of the recovery stocks

particularly hotels airlines

restaurants and the travel ones macy's

still kicking butt blows my mind but i

think it's too soon to get in on the

recovery yet i don't think we've seen

the worst of delta just yet which knock

on wood i hope that we have seen the

worst but i want to know from you what

do you think personally i'm going to

stay away from recovery but i want to

hear from you have we already priced in

delta is this it does anybody actually

care in the stock market about delta let

me know in the comments down below check

out the programs link down below as well

and folks we'll see in the next one

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you