*THIS* is NOT Good for Tesla in 2025.

okay let's talk more about Tesla's Robo

taxi now joining us now Kevin paffrath

financial adviser and YouTuber meet

Kevin Kevin I know you were watching

that event very closely as well now you

still have some Tesla in a retirement

account I know you have it um I believe

in one of your ETFs as well um if so as

an investor looking at that event last

night do you go out there and buy on

this dip that you're seeing

today well it is so tempting first of

all thank you for having me but it is so

tempting because when you see a down 8%

day logic says by but the reality that

we have to think about is look if we're

soft landing and the US economy is going

to be great for the next 10 years this

is the perfect vision that you want this

is the 2021 kind of vision that just

takes stocks through the roof because

everybody's got the Kathy Wood fiveyear

time Horizon and don't get me wrong I

love Kathy but I'm really worried

because Tesla just gave up its

midterm recession protection you got to

think that the people who buy Teslas are

mostly 25 to 40y old guys in finance and

Tech and they're the ones that have the

biggest risk of losing their job from Ai

and the biggest risk of having hardship

finding a new job should they get laid

off so your clientele is at big risk in

a recession you are already at flat

year-over-year growth you're plummeting

in Europe in terms of growth which

happens to be where one of your

gigafactories are uh the Wall Street

actually was the financial times just

showed uh Germany and potentially a

2-year recession and so now you're in a

place where you don't have a new product

to help you survive the medium term why

not introduce the Cyber cab as for sale

with the steering wheel wheel and pedals

and it says Fleet eligible in the future

with the new hardware 5 and you can

drive it with your steering wheel like

normal you know it'll be be Fleet

eligible and you can remove that

Hardware in the long term that way Tesla

could start mass-producing these next

year and actually generate some EPS

growth that's substantial to justify

this High valuation so were you um you

know we we talked about this uh Kevin

with some other shareholders I'm not

saying they were

expecting that Elon Musk was going to

make some news at the event with lower

price models but they were really hoping

for that excited for that were you

excited about that kind of new

product I thought it was make or break

uh I thought if they didn't introduce a

lower cost model that could be bought

for the midterm I thought that this this

essentially would happen and it could

potentially start a downtrend I was

really hoping that they would have

learned that when they when the rumors

from Reuters circulated that oh we're

not doing the model 2 and the stock

tanked in the spring I would have

thought logic would have told them okay

the shareholders want a cheaper car just

give it to them if you can Mass

manufacture and you're such an expert in

manufacturing manufacture these cars

even if you're only going to do so for

five or six years before Robo taxis take

over have that bridge to get you through

a recession because now what you've got

are existing models and hope and not

much in between that doesn't help you in

a recession and you were also right on

to point out what Adam Jonas said which

is exactly what I thought uh at the

event yesterday as well the robots that

were probably bolted to the ground and

dancing in the Gazebo that nobody could

get close to those are pre-programmed

likely the robots that are walking

around doing handshakes or playing rock

paper scissor with folks those are all

very likely teleoperated in fact there

was someone from Microsoft apparently on

Twitter who was suggesting they asked

and that they were teleoperated but let

Tesla verify that uh and so you don't

actually have ai in robots it's very

likely that the robo taxis were not

using the FSD that we use on the road it

was some form of pre-programmed circuit

on private roads which means you don't

have ai there and the robo van was

closer to the ground than China's

economy which means one pothole takes

that thing out honestly I think that van

was mostly clickbait like some form of

chassis in a cool frame it looked cool I

got seven kids I would love this van I

wish Tesla had a you have seven

kids yeah we had a little oopsies and

and we messed up our fertility timing

and we end that's probably more than we

need to know that's probably more than

we need to know Kevin but that's okay um

that is amazing that's an amazing fact

to know it's stressful so listen it

seems you know it seems obvious the way

that you're laying out the way that a

lot of these analysts have laid it out

that this would be disappointing why do

you think that the company didn't

realize it needed to deliver more or is

it just because that's worked for Tesla

historically to to go by this

Playbook well I honestly I think it's uh

just sort of typical Elon character and

and I don't actually see that as a

long-term flaw I think a Visionary is

typically going to be very stubborn

about what they believe the future is

and I think that Elon is is correct the

future is driverless the future is

everything he is is doing he he is so

right about the future and I couldn't

support him more just the uh it's a

little bit of a slap in the face and

potentially a recession when you've got

the or near recession when the FED is

flying so close to the Sun that they cut

50 and yields tighten by 50 and we saw

the treasuries all Skyrocket it's nuts

uh you're really tightening this economy

a lot and Tesla is an interest rate

sensitive stock with customers that are

going to be most impacted if we go into

recession so I think the business side

failed here The Innovation side and the

vision I'm all for it do I think some of

it was probably more show than real

technology technology absolutely but

honestly it was an exciting event for

the vision and it made me excited about

wanting to be part of the stock more and

investing in it but honestly I'll wait

for like a 150 or maybe even a one hand

a one 100 handle on the stock before

reinvesting Kevin I'm curious if if the

future is driverless do you think Tesla

do you think Elon Musk has uh certain

competitive comp

advantages in that market in that race

to that

future so the answer to that is sort of

two-folded the answer corre currently

like in a snapshot today is absolutely

Tesla has a massive lead But the irony

that I think a lot of folks forget is

that the better chipsets like nvidia's

Blackwell or even the h100s get the

better these chipsets get the easier it

is for other companies to use Nvidia

Drive platform or other platforms and

their compute to use less data

substantially fewer miles than Tesla has

driven and end up getting similar

results so interestingly you're up

against the clock you know I I first got

autopilot from Tesla seven years ago and

I bought it because I thought it was the

greatest thing ever and I loved it I've

been using it for seven years but I

remember 7even years ago thinking wow I

won't have to drive in three years yeah

well now my 2-year-old is nine and I'm

still driving and I'm still taking over

at knucklehead intersections that FSD

just can't read the road signs on and it

wants to do silly things it's getting

further and fewer between but the

reality is that moat Tesla has is

shrinking and it's shrinking fast well

and Kevin to your point I mean you know

we're not quite there yet but maybe you

know sooner than you're going to get a

Tesla van to stick all your your family

in you're going to get a whmo maybe to

stick your family in

well I think you're right I think in the

longer term this the vision that Tesla's

trying to pitch is hey uh everybody's

going to be able to submit these

vehicles to this sort of Robo taxi

Network honestly I think in the future

if we're going to have Robo taxis

driving around I I'm going to be brand

agnostic as a consumer an Enthusiast a

Tesla investor is going to want the

Tesla but everybody else is going to

open up an Uber or whatever they don't

care if it's a whmo if it's a Cru if

it's a Tesla they just want it to show

up faster and cheaper and so I think

that pricing power in the long term

really wains because I mean you see it

today and I'm sure we've all done it you

open up Uber what 10 minutes away H let

me go on lift and if that's 3 minutes

away I have zero loyalty to that Uber I

feel bad about that but that's going to

be how most consumers act and

unfortunately that's just going to

create a race to the bottom in terms of

margins I don't actually see Robo taxi

as as profitable as people suggest it

will be Kevin always great to have you

on the show thank you thank you so much

for joining us appreciate it thank you

both do not advertise these things that

you told us here I feel like nobody else

knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising in seeo

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always wait to get

your take