Prepare for this Week’s Rug Pull.

hey everyone me Kevin here coming to you

on autopilot to talk about what this

week has in store for us regarding the

Federal Reserve inflation and other

considerations let's get right into it

the first and most important thing that

I'm going to be paying attention to this

week is of course the Federal Open

Market Committee set of minutes those

will come out on Wednesday morning so

mark your calendars for Wednesday

morning we'll be able to find out what

that discussion was around going 50 for

the fed and are we going to get any

hints or suggestions as to maybe getting

a repeated 50 or are we just going to

get that continued data dependence which

remember those headline job numbers that

we just got seemed really really good

but yesterday we did a 27 and A2 minute

video breaking down why those job

numbers were entirely baloney it's not

until you actually get like a 100 page

and Pages down into the jobs report and

all the way down into table alpha 8 they

end up realizing that yes while the

establishment survey removed the

seasonal uh Spike of teachers going to

work the household survey did not or

even if it did it still somehow showed a

seasonally adjusted positive 785,000

jobs which is crazy for September and

it's also historically unprecedented to

see an adjustment that high which

suggests that the dat is likely to get

suggested substantially down potentially

a lot more than we've ever seen before

now we know that JP and the Federal

Reserve board are probably already

expecting some of the job numbers to get

revised down and the reality is even if

the job numbers are revised down by

50% they're still good you'd still have

120,000 or 125,000 jobs from the you

know 154 or whatever that we got which

is incredible but the real question is

what happens if you remove that crazy

$785,000 job gain for government

employees on the household survey with

the seasonal adjustment already

adjusting for teachers well what you end

up getting is a 42% unemployment rate

not a 4% employment rate which is much

closer the to recession then frankly uh

this unemployment report lets on so

we'll see uh I think I don't know that

this fomc minutes set will really tell

us anything other than hey we're

expecting to be dad independent but I'd

like to see some commentary on revisions

and I'd like to see a little bit more

commentary on their their confidence

that inflation is indeed going to come

down even though we did see a little bit

of a pull forward in September now I

want to talk about September because

this is an interesting one but quick

note yesterday we had a mastermind and

one of the folks in The Mastermind is

like yeah you know I'm a wholesaler this

this is a great group of entrepreneurs

by the way meet Kevin o/ Mastermind we

meet you know what's a quarter uh great

group of entrepreneurs and one of them

is is a wholesaler and they mention you

know I got calls almost daily saying hey

the port strike's coming up at the

beginning of October make sure you order

enough inventory in September so that

you don't run out and have bare shelves

and it does make me think that there was

a substantial pull forward of demand

into September because of those Port

strikes which likely contributed to the

skewing of this data now obviously we're

going to get hit because of the

hurricane adjustments we see in October

hurricane hela's a disaster it's killed

over 226 people is terrible now Tampa

and Ford Meers that area is going to get

hit again by another major hurricane

this is just absolutely crazy it's a

horrible time in the environment uh and

for whatever it's worth I I should just

briefly quickly mention so my team

doesn't get mad at me that yes we do

have a coupon expiring tonight uh we are

going to do the largest price increase

ever after this coupon expiration so if

you want to be in get lifetime access to

all all of the course member live

streams lectures the archive the

fundamental analysis the trade moves

portfolio change you name it check it

out be the first to know over at

meetkevin.com a lot of people buying

that stocks and psychology of money

group and a lot of people bundling it

with real estate or the gold

productivity course check that out uh

okay so I'll link down below but after

we get this fomc data set on Wednesday

we're also going to get the CPI report

now CPI comes out Thursday morning at

5:30 a.m. as usual I'll be live on the

meet Kevin Market stream we're expecting

CPI to come in at .1% on the survey

prior report is 02 this will be great

might take some of pressure off those

bond yields those bond yields going up

25 to 35 basis points after the FED cut

50 is insane core CPI is expected to

come in at 0 2 that's average down from

about a two uh 24ish estimate prior

being3 CPI year-over-year expect to come

in at 2.3 versus prior of 25 and CPI

year-over-year core expected to come in

at 3.2 versus 3.2 on the prior so

overall that's going to be the data set

this week we do uh we will obviously get

real hour hourly uh wages which is

because you take the CPI report and then

compare it to Wages that's not a big

deal we'll get initial jobless claims as

well uh and then on Friday October 11th

we're going to start Bank earnings

big deal to get some insights into that

Q4 forecast how are the consumers doing

more delinquencies are we getting credit

card defaults or we getting more pain on

the consumer or not did we see a weird

spike in September because of some pull

forward and then all of a sudden a crash

in October is going to be some of our

early warning signs if there are any

warning signs and we'll also get PPI ppi

is expected to be mild as well the

producer price index report uh that'll

come in at or expected to come in at a

0.1 survey prior 0 2 on the month over

month month over month core looking for

0. 2 versus the3 prior much like the

previous report except the

year-over-year is expected to come in at

1.6 versus prior 1.7 year-over-year core

2.7 versus 2.4 prior and I mean look the

manufacturing industry is in substantial

decline Friday we'll also get um

University of Michigan sentiment but

manufacturing industry is basically

facing just straight up deflation so I

wouldn't really anticipate uh you know a

big painful PPI read you know maybe you

could end up seeing a Miss to the upside

on CPI solely because of that pull

forward that we saw into September but

honestly I think that pull forward into

September is going to lead to a crash of

jobs in October we won't get that jobs

report obviously until um November but

we might see some spikes in some of the

initial unemployment claims so have to

pay attention to that and then on top of

that you've got to consider that that

seasonal adjustment is absolutely insane

see remember for a moment normally when

you have a bunch of teachers going back

to work you have a non-seasonally

adjusted number Spike and then they

Revis that down with a seasonal

adjustment that would be expected and

they did that in the establishment

survey they're like oh we have like half

a million teachers and then they adjust

that down to 31,000 cool but in the

household survey which actually calls

workers somehow we seasonally adjusted

added 785,000 government workers uh and

that's compared to the non-seasonal

adjustment of almost 1.4 million workers

where where did all these freaking

government workers come from uh you know

again this is where a lot of people

think maybe there's election bias or

whatever but I do think this week we'll

get a lot of insight on CPI an early

read on earnings a lot more earnings

obviously next week uh and obviously the

FED minutes I'll be covering all of

these I'll definitely be covering these

minutes as they come out really big deal

uh and I really look forward to covering

those I actually have an appointment

that I have to get to at 12 so I'll

cover those for about 30 minutes on

Wednesday since they come out at 11: and

then I'll dip uh and and look whatever

happens I'll be there with you I'll be

there for you I'll do my best to Pro

provide the information uh as factually

as possible uh if you like my

information check out that expiring

coupon code we will increase prices the

largest we've ever increased prices

before we've got some great things

planned for course members we're very

excited about that so if you want to

lock in that price before that jump make

sure to do so link down below before

11:59 p.m. tonight if you have any

questions email us at staff

meetkevin.com I appreciate all of you

thank you so much for being here thank

you autopilot for driving all I've been

watching the road the whole time anyway

that was why it hasn't been beeping you

know now elon's got this whole autopilot

thing where if you're not watching the

road it will beep uh which is actually

great I I kind of like it I don't have

to Wobble the wheel anymore I always

thought that was kind of unsafe but uh

and Highway it's always been pretty good

anyway and I leave like extra I always

set it for extra distance too but anyway

that's just me thank you so very much

for being here here again and folks

we'll see you in the next one oh mind

you Thursday we'll also get the robo

taxi event there woo stay tuned for my

Tesla video that's going to be a big one

talk to you soon bye everyone Max you

want say bye bye