wtf

hey everyone we kevin here the stock

market is an absolute crop show right

now and in this video i'm going to

explain what we could actually be facing

and how long we might actually be facing

it for and how to look at this market in

terms of an investor it's very different

than the market we were looking at in

2020 and i want to explain some of those

differences in this video but first i

want to provide you another update on

this right here this is the bloomberg

research terminal two factor

identification code thingymajiggy and

when i swipe my finger on this and

verify my fingerprint and then scan a

random sort of little flashy thing on my

computer

i end up getting a four digit code the

very first time i got an odd code was

february 19th of 2021 and it was prey

and the stock market basically collapsed

into march and may right after that

update in fact the market started

falling basically right after it said

b-r-a-y you look at feb 19th 2021 in

tech stocks and it's freaking scary okay

well then come about the second week of

january i got

sh9 t which nine

if you look at the ninth letter of the

alphabet you end up replacing that nine

with that ninth letter of the alphabet

you get i so you get s-h-i-t

yeah well the market's been absolute

doo-doo as well since the middle of

january now this time it didn't tell me

as early like it'd be nice if it

would've told me in december right but

this morning i got a very interesting

update

and it was n-a-p-p

nap and it made me think okay i'm not a

very superstitious person but it just

made me think what time in history is

similar

to what we might be experiencing now in

other words when is the freaking pain

potentially going to end and how do we

invest differently now than we did in

2020 well that is what we're going to

talk about in this video but first i

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public check that out linked down below

metkevin.com public okay so here's kind

of what i was looking at in terms of

research

so

right now when we look at the qqq we

look and we say oh my gosh okay all-time

highs we're beginning of january we had

a lot of exciting sentiment and so what

are we doing now we're throwing these

fibonacci lines up and we're realizing

we're we're starting to kind of fall and

close below these fibonaccis in fact

today uh we ended up closing right here

at 330 which is below the zero percent

334 line so it's getting to the point

where i'm starting to have to actually

move my fibs down i haven't actually

moved these down yet because part of me

is a little bit in disbelief that the

spy has broken this twice and we're

about to break below it again the zero

percent fib on the spy is 420 we're at

423 okay we're just straight up trending

straight down and it sucks i mean this

is a horrible trend pattern and when we

look at the chart like this we think to

ourselves oh come on how long can this

last because when we zoom out on the day

chart for the spy i mean look at the

chart we had this short crisis of a dip

over here in march of 2020 and yeah

we've had these little fear

opportunities over here to buy and every

time we've gotten under the 100 day

moving average on the spy it was a

buying opportunity it was a buying

opportunity in march of 2020 it was a

buying opportunity right before the

election over here in 2020 uh anytime we

had uh here the pain that we had over

here

in october of 2021 that ended up being a

buying opportunity it would seem like

now is a buying opportunity now

as well but what's different what's

different and what is it signal for the

future of this market well what's

different is during all of these

short-term falls jerome powell was our

friend the federal reserve was actively

printing money like crazy making it so

that all of the investments we made no

matter how stupid they were or how

little research we actually did into

them and don't feel bad for it it was

what worked back then okay i like to do

a lot of research but i know a lot of

people pick stocks don't do any research

and they can do very well but this time

is actually different now i hate using

that phrase this time is different

because this that is 2022 is different

from 2020 and 2021 in fact that we do

not have jay pow blowing wind at our

back we make a bad choice and a company

misses earnings you know what happens

right now you end up getting docusigned

or you end up getting rivient i mean

look at this this is an absolute cluster

f you go from 314 down to 90

right now that is insane actually i'm

sorry

that doesn't even incorporate the after

hours price we went from 350 or sorry

what was it let's see here it's it's so

bad i can't even remember the high was 3

15. uh the after hours actually has

docusign at 78 dollars so 78

divided by 315. look at that that's a

decline of 75 percent look at rivian

folks idiot after hours is at 36

it's straight down i mean this looks as

bad as the robin hood chart now

fortunately i sold my docusign

fortunately i never bought rivia and i

made a video right before the run-up and

i said should you buy rivian and

everybody thought i was an idiot when i

said the thing was overvalued and the

thing kept running up and i'm like oh

whatever make some money shorting it

okay you know it's gone down

substantially right why

because we don't have the wind at our

back so of the fed right but look at

this because this is scary we're looking

at this chart and i know this sounds a

little funny okay but look at this chart

this right here implies that we've had a

massive downswing here and maybe we're

close to the bottom maybe it's time to

buy right but then i got a little

nervous when i did the following i went

to trading view okay and when i went to

trading view what i did is i turned on

the log chart and i went all the way out

to uh throw this up here on a single day

and i threw this out at all time and if

you do that it actually bounces it out

to a month which is fine because it's

such a long term and what i wanted to do

is i wanted to compare us

to the dot-com bubble because there's so

many comparisons to the dot-com bubble

right now and this is kind of scary

because when we look at a lot of the

specs a lot of the profit less tech

companies a lot of the really innovative

plays that were big game changers as

well back in the dot-com bubble remember

a lot of those though unfortunately did

go bankrupt we saw a similar kind of

drawdown in prices of a lot of these

companies now again the docusigns the

paypal the sofi the square the lemonade

insurance i mean ensure tech has gotten

destroyed a lot of the evs have gotten

destroyed some of these companies are

down 60 to 80 percent it's absolutely

crazy right

very similar to the dot-com bubble and

so this is what woke me up to thinking

well maybe we got to look and compare

the dot-com bubble and take a look at

this and this is really what was scary

look at when my trading view bollinger

bands here gave me a cell indicator

going all the way back to 2000. it gives

me a cell indicator after we've already

had some pain here around january of

2001. now that's wild because the

dot-com bubble really started having

pain in about september of 2000 and so

it it was kind of late it was almost

like oh my gosh well if you would have

sold uh you know january of 01 you would

have sold at the bottom what a loser

right uh and this is very frequently

what we hear when people say they're

they're selling their stocks it's like

haha stocks just went up the next day or

the next week what a loser right but

look at this had you sold here

you would have actually

saved not a few weeks of pain but you

would have saved

almost

two

and a third

years of pain

leading all the way to where the buy

signal pops in right here in about

mid-2003 how wild is this that we had

two and a half

years of pain

of the dot-com bubble that would be from

about the end of 2000

to the beginning of uh 2003. two and a

half years of this kind of garbage and

when i throw this on a log chart which

was really important about the log chart

to know is it it shows you a relative

percentage decline rather than just a

nominal price uh change because over

time as prices get larger it seems like

the chart moves more than it actually

does like for example if i go over here

to weeble just to make this little make

more sense i go to the month chart

this is the dot-com bubble right here

and it feels like what we're

experiencing right now is actually much

worse but that's because we're starting

with larger numbers right we're starting

with the number here of 100

we went from 100 on qqq down to 20.

that's an 80

loss on qqq 80 freaking percent but if

you look at the chart it's like wait a

minute the chart makes it seem like this

is a much larger decline right but wait

a minute the spy's only gone from 408 or

we call it 409 to 312. that's only 20 i

mean not the spy the nasdaq it's only

gone down about 23.7 percent so why does

a 23.7 percent decline over here

feel bigger than an 80 decline over here

well again it's because we're starting

with larger numbers so the drop the

candlestick drop of a hundred points is

obviously larger here because 100 points

here would bring you to zero right kind

of wild anyway you could solve for this

by looking at the log chart and this is

really what is is kind of making me a

little bit nervous i have to say

it makes me want to sign up for life

insurance

anyway look at this okay i've got the

log chart on

look under my head right here see how it

says log right here

look at how our dip right now compares

on the log chart that's it folks look at

that right there how ugly is that that's

it

this is a little itty bitty little red

right here

that's the pain we're dealing with right

now that's what everybody's freaking out

about right now okay you want to see

real pain if we're really comparing

ourselves to the dot-com bubble look at

that holy crapolas okay so what do we do

with this information because

obviously we know that we've got a lot

of maddening things happening in the

economy right now okay we've got insane

levels of inflation the federal reserve

is stuck between a rock and a hard place

in the short term they're not going to

rug pull us they're not going to 50

basis point hike us they're not going to

shock an ass they're going to

stay accommodative by doing 25 basis

point hikes this is almost certain i

could be wrong data could change but the

federal reserve has made this very very

clear to us because of war and the

geopolitical concerns they are going to

relax now this is good but it still

doesn't necessarily mean they're our

friend i mean they went from being our

friend to blowing wind at our back to

like kind of blowing wind against us

they're just saying we're not gonna huff

and puff you we're just gonna slowly

blow you um i hope nobody clips this

okay so now

we've gotta consider the fact that all

right

inflation if it doesn't go down they're

going to eventually have to shock and us

they will have to force a recession to

get inflation gone and it's important to

know that they can do this they can wave

a wand and create a recession all they

have to do is jack interest rates up to

probably six percent instantaneously

inflation will go away virtually

overnight because demand will absolutely

collapse we'll go into a recession that

will be very painful uh real estate

prices stock prices everything will be

hurt there'll be nothing to be saved

people like oh but crypto be safe right

no nfts crypto won't be safe either

gold might not even necessarily be safe

honestly the best thing that'll be safe

in a recession is straight up cash and

and i'm tired of hearing people say

things like oh but cash loses value to

inflation dude it depends what you're

buying okay if you're buying things that

are going down in value

you gain money it's like having

deflation right that's the point right

your cash gets more valuable as prices

go down anyway so

we we still have the boogeyman of

inflation and if it does not end up

being transitory and you do not believe

that in in one year from now inflation

has gone down with the fed raising rates

25 basis points seven or eight or maybe

even up to 17 times in a row

then you probably don't want to be in

equities

because the fed's going to have to keep

tightening the screws on us until this

inflation is gone and if the inflation

stays they will have to force a

recession

uh but i i think the big sort of scary

thing for me and and this hasn't changed

my portfolio it's not like this is

making me want to like flip or whatever

i'm about 70 to 73 exposed right now uh

to the market and a lot of that was

because the the shock and awe potential

of the fed has gone away uh in fact you

know it was wild because people always

tell me like oh why didn't you tell me

this earlier i i did i literally do in

fact look at this this was so scary i

looked at the january cpi uh

spreadsheet that or not spreadsheet the

document i had from january this came

out february 10th see it says right

there february 10th so i probably did a

video on this on february 10th but

anyway i was talking about how there

could be a 70 buying opportunity uh and

you maybe want to be 30 cash and that's

literally what i did like i do try to be

as transparent as possible on this

channel and i pretty much do what i say

i'm gonna do uh that might not be what

sometimes we want to hear

like obviously nobody wanted to hear

that kevin was selling i'm very grateful

that i did because i saved a lot of

money uh and i know today was a red day

i was up this morning well actually last

night i was up since my trades by around

march 24th i was up about 1.2 million in

my portfolio now i'm only up 800. i'll

still take the 800 though don't get me

wrong i still take the 800 but

i i i am very sad about looking at this

log chart because i'm like we could just

be going through quite frankly nap time

and that brings us full circle to this

this bloomberg notification here and

that is going full circle back to the

next quite frankly

at least year

if not year and a half could end up

being nap time

and nap time is an opportunity for you

in my opinion to build okay this is an

opportunity to figure out how you can

make more money for example those of you

in my well a path to wealth course how

can we figure out how to make more money

negotiate a higher salary for you make

sure that you're able to invest as much

as possible increase that top line so we

get more into the bucket of investing

right and then when we have more in that

bucket of investing how can we invest

this in

the most conservative means possible so

that way we can get through this storm

whether we're buying wedge deals below

market wedge deals whether we're

allocating more money to cash than ever

before whether we're making sure to stay

out of debt whether we're also doing

some things to potentially yield farm

selling puts selling calls selling calls

potentially a little bit safer in this

sort of market i know that sounds crazy

because worst case scenario with a sold

call you end up losing your shares

because you're selling them at a certain

price you agree to with sell puts though

you end up selling a put and then the

market keeps going down and down and

down it could hurt because you're really

agreeing to pay a certain price so for

example on docusign

there uh if we go to the day chart on

docusign if you sold puts after this

drop over here at 150 and you're like oh

the yield's so great i'm going to yield

farm over here now it's down another 50

percent your puts are bleeding like

crazy we're looking it's down 17 after

ours it's insane so what do we do how do

we stay away from the most dangerous

categories well it seems like the the

biggest pain points in the market right

now are uh

companies that are in the financial

space so if i square

companies that are in the stay at home

space zoom docusign companies that have

no profit without a down companies that

are specs no matter what they are uh and

and healthcare to some degree and this

is kind of sad that you kind of like

it's almost like nobody's doing

fundamental analysis it kind of feels

like these things are just being lumped

together and then the algos are just

going sell sell sell on those things

it kind of sucks you know things that

that are holding up okay i can't really

say that tesla's holding up okay because

look i mean it's on a straight downtrend

right uh things that have held up okay

to some degree obviously at this point

energy but this could be a short-term

play but it could be a hedge against

some of your other moves personally i

think these trades are crowded once the

geopolitical uh crisis ends i expect

this this trade to collapse same thing

with wheat and we've already seen some

of the commodities start collapsing i

expect that trend to continue so rather

for me rather than going too heavy on

energy or commodities or wheat for me

it's not financial advice for you i'm a

little bit more interested in just being

cash heavy on those or potentially

trying to do uh two to maybe eight week

sold puts grab a little bit of yield

form worst case i have to buy those

shares that's okay uh but i'll also sell

some calls in fact probably if tomorrow

we get a little bit of a green day i'll

sell some calls again against some of my

positions that are a little bit higher

and that way i'm just collecting a

little bit more cash so that way i'm

prepared so hopefully once we get

through this next year or whatever if we

could just honestly get through this

year

flat or slightly up

that's going to be a good thing uh i

hate to say that for broadly right i i

hope to be much more than obviously flat

or slightly up i i hopefully can still

uh you know with yield farming and the

strategies that i have returned

somewhere between 10 and 30 percent that

would be wonderful i don't have the 2020

expectations anymore of oh yeah

everything's gonna double in three

months right this is why call options in

my opinion are dangerous and i'd rather

have shares than in the money calls in

this kind of market but a lot of people

are coming to me and they're like kevin

kevin when is skills going to go back up

when are you know insert uh popular 2020

stock in here uh gonna go back up they

don't have to go back up and this is i

hate to say it but

penny stocks are not ipo'd nobody ipo is

a penny stock ipa penny stocks are

created by the market look at this

skills went up to 46

out of momentum it's at two

dollars right now two dollars and 10

cents divided by 46. it is down over 95

that's freaking insane

but this kind of stuff will keep

happening you know i know neo is one of

our sexy friends we just love neo but i

can't buy neo because i know the chinese

consumer is sucking right now the darn

thing's going straight freaking down now

i get it you know tesla's been having a

little bit of a rough ride too but

certainly not as rough as uh as what

we've seen at

some of these other place

so

look just be careful let's all have to

say go for those high growth high margin

businesses that's what i'm personally

looking for so what are what are my

favorites you should know this by now

and i trade other ones as well but some

of my favorites honestly visa

high high margin 50 percent of the

bottom line mass not i wouldn't say

massive growth probably like eight to

twelve percent growth right uh tesla 50

growth huge growth and profitable

profitable growth is where it's at end

phase

really amazing companies like this uh

even google to some degree high growth

high profit

free cash flow that's what people are

investing for right now but i hate to

say it i don't know with certainty that

it's going to save us from this so while

right now i'm i'm in and i'm not

flipping i just want to provide this

logarithmic comparison here that quite

frankly makes me sad because i i do

think the the next two years are going

to be more painful than not uh it's

certainly 2020 2020 is going to suck but

we've known that for a while so anyway

just some thoughts thanks so much for

watching and we'll see in the next one

bye