Inflation Relief Stimulus Checks!

fairly. You can't have free trade unless

it's also fair trade. And the

commander-in-chief, the president of the

United States has the authority to do

that. So, we hope the Article 3 branch

of government, the judicial branch, will

acknowledge the same and allow this to

continue. You're right, it'd be chaos.

It'd be a big mess if they tried to

unwind it. And the president has done an

extraordinary job. He's he's getting us

back on a level playing field with our

allies around the world and and even the

adversaries taking note. Uh we've got to

get this resolved. I think there's some

uncertainty that still remains, but it

will be finalized here soon unless the

court gets in the middle of it. So,

we'll see what they do in November. I

hope they do the right thing and I hope

the president is allowed to continue

what he's doing because it is working

for American taxpayers and American

citizens everywhere.

>> Yeah. Well, knowing him, I mean, he he

wants to build some factories. I don't

blame him if he wants to build some

factories. Fascinating. By the way, one

of the hottest stock sectors in this

massive stock market rally, which I

think has a lot to do with Mr. Trump's

progrowth program is industrials,

old-fashioned manufacturing industrial

companies, and Mr. Trump wants to have a

low playing field, build some more here.

So, I think that's great. But I have a

thought, sir. You know, I like to weigh

in with you every now and then. You have

this tariff revenue surplus. As I say,

it could be $300 billion for calendar

year 2025. How about returning it to the

taxpayers? What you think of that,

Speaker Johnson?

Well, there there's a there's a school

of thought that says that's the best way

to do it, but we've also got to manage

the national debt. We need to pay that

down as well. You and I both know it's a

big national security threat to us right

now. And we're looking to to be

responsible and good stewards of that

taxpayer funding and we can use that

tariff revenue in a number of ways. But,

uh, we're going through that. That's

part of the process. Part of our small D

democratic process is to have those

debates and arguments and and, uh,

ultimately we'll do the right thing.

We're trying to keep steady hands on the

wheel in the Congress to allow the

president to keep doing and advancing

these policies and it is working for the

American people. And that's why, you

know, Larry, I'm very bullish about the

midterm elections coming up in 2026

because people are going to feel the

positive effects of all these progrowth

policies, everything we did in the one

big beautiful bill, the working families

tax cuts and all the rest. We're we're

doing right by the people. We're

fulfilling our promises and they'll feel

that and I think they'll reward it.

>> You get your blue collar bloom, sir. You

get your blue collar boom. You're gonna

defy history and pick up seats next

year. That's just some cuddlo thinking.

>> That's right.

>> All right, Speaker Mike Johnson.

>> I like it.

>> Thank you, sir.

>> You know, that's actually the

interesting idea is that we're kind of

seeing the opposite of a bluecollar boom

right now. So, Larry Cuddlo asked

Speaker Mike Johnson, hey, you know,

what do you think about stimulus checks

and what do you think about the Supreme

Court making a ruling on tariffs? And

Mike Johnson literally says, "Well, the

Supreme Court should stay in their lane

and stay out of tariffs. You know,

tariffs are the responsibility of

Congress."

Wait a second. Then why is the president

issuing the tariffs? So what you're

basically saying is the Supreme Court

can't talk about tariffs because that's

not in their lane. It belongs in

Congress's lane. But wait a minute, why

is the president doing it? That means

he's out of his lane because the Supreme

Court isn't going to rule on tariffs.

The Supreme Court is going to rule on

whether or not Trump is in his lane or

out of his lane. Mike Johnson just

conveniently doesn't mention that, mind

you. But understand, we're not going to

hear anything from the Supreme Court for

a while anyway. The Supreme Court might

hear arguments in November on tariffs,

but they're not actually going to issue

any kind of ruling until like February

or maybe as late as June of next year

because that's what they do. They hear

their arguments and then up to 3 to 6

months later is when you actually get a

ruling, which means Trump's tariffs are

basically just going to continue

probably for another

6 to9 months from now, which means

there's not going to be relief from the

Supreme Court on tariffs. In addition to

that, you have Mike Johnson asked about,

hey, what do you think about returning

some of that extra tariff money to

taxpayers?

to this. He says, "Well, we want to be

mindful of the debt. We're considering

this."

Trump has mentioned this, right? Trump

has mentioned a potential rebate. New

York is doing inflation refund checks.

California did inflation refund checks.

It's possible. Does it seem probable

before midterms?

I'd put it at like a 30% chance because

see Larry Cuddlo says if you have a

bluecollar boom

you will win midterms hands down. But

the problem is bluecollar workers are

suffering. Most of the most Americans

are suffering. There's not a great

economy for most people. When the top

10% of Americans make up about 50% of

all consumer spending, basically it's

the rich who are driving everything.

There's a reason why Chipotle and

cheesecake stocks are going down. Just

as an example, because people are

spending less money in these stores. I

mean, look at some of the actual data.

Chipotle, when you look at the revenue

number, the topline revenue number, up

3% year-over-year. But wait a minute,

that's only because they added stores.

They added more lemonade stands. When

you actually look at the numbers, you

see, oh wait, for the existing stores

you had, the existing stands you had,

your sales are actually down 4%. You're

forecasting flat sales while also adding

stores. What does this mean?

People are out of money. Rich people can

only eat so many burritos. You don't

need more rich people buying burritos.

You need more people. more Americans

buying burritos. And when people start

suffering, they stop spending $18 on a

damn burrito.

The same problem is happening at the

Cheesecake Factory. Look at Cheesecake

Factory. They bring 5.7 cents of every

dollar to the bottom line.

That's terrible.

Their comp sales growth is anemic at

1.2%.

If we go into a recession, there will

not be a blue collar boom. You will end

up seeing companies like Cheesecake go

bankrupt, which is crazy to say, but

Cheesecake just took out nine what

somewhere it was about $500 million in

debt in the last quarter just to try to

float their expenses. They have about

$250 million in available cash right now

with uh

well about twice that in bills to pay.

You got about $500 million in bills to

pay. They got $250 million in available

cash. So, they don't even have enough

money to pay for their bills. Right now,

their free cash flow is about $30

million in 6 months. So, every month

you're growing your available cash by

about 5 million, but where does that get

you at the end of the year? Nowhere

close to 500 mil. So Cheesecake either

needs to sell some stock or raise some

more debt because they're out of money

and their business is not profitable

enough to actually generate enough

capital because as these businesses

raise money

by raising prices,

their comp sales end up declining like

you're seeing at Chipotle.

Now look at a company like Dave and

Busters. Dave and Busters decides, "Oh,

we're going to raise prices so much by

investing in a fancier restaurant setup

and, you know, more TVs or LED walls or

whatever." But what ends up happening,

they raise the prices of the experience

of going to Dave and Busters so much

that people stop showing up as much. And

so, what's happened to Dave and Busters

stock? Well, Dave andBuster stock since

the beginning of the year has fallen off

a cliff. Dave and Buster stock is now

trading for less than $20

per share.

This is a sign of a company that

thought, hey, we'll do well if we throw

blow a bunch of money on capital

expenditures while raising prices on

people. But people are revoling. People

get pissed. The very bluecollar people

that Larry Cuddlo is talking about are

pissed and so they stop going out. So

sales go down. This is not a surprise.

Any consumer business that's reliant on

more people coming rather than the

wealth of that person suffers and we may

already be in a recession. Now we won't

know until after the fact. The stock

market certainly isn't going to forecast

a recession. We're alltime highs on

everything. The stock market is kicking

butt. You know, a stock that that we

bought at IPO just in the last month is

up over 25%. And we sent that to course

members. Eight IPOs. It's up over 25%

still today. Still rising today. It was

up like 5% today.

Of course, you want all those calls.

Make sure you're part of the Meet Kevin

membership over at meet.com. But

remember, these companies aren't reliant

on more rich people who can spend money

on big things. They're relying on more

people showing up. And I get it. Dave

and Busters thought, "Hey, if we put

some big LED walls into our I filmed

this with my metagasses into our uh

properties and and remodel with wood

paneling or whatever, we'll be able to

make more money." But then you sit down

and you realize that a Dave and Busters

quality ribeye is going to cost you $35

and they're going to charge you for kids

sodas because they raise prices on

everything and the damn down the clown

machine that is literally part of the

experience as to why you're going there

is damaged to where the stupid machine

doesn't even work right because the

little I mean long and short of it

basically we we are still able to win

because we know trick of like like first

of all like okay we realize like the

machine's damaged. We'll just

restrategize a little bit. But like the

little bar that sets up the top guys

just goes up and down like three times.

So we kind of have to delay when we go

for the top row again because it goes up

and down three times because it's

broken. It's glitched out. It doesn't

realize that the clown's already up. But

much like you know the economy for poor

folks right now it's all a giant clown

show. And so are we actually going to

get stmmies? Certainly not before the

Supreme Court makes a decision on

tariffs. Mike Johnson says they need to

stay in their lane. And you know what?

They probably will because the Supreme

Court is a majority of Republicans and

they'll probably side with Donald Trump

and we'll have tariffs for a while. But

you're not going to get any kind of

stimulus before a Supreme Court decision

because all that money might have to get

repaid back if tariffs are deemed

illegal. So you can't pay out money that

you might have to pay back. So it has to

be liability free money. Then right

before midterms, you better hope this

economy soft lands if Republicans are

supposed to stay in power. Because if

this economy does not soft land and the

economy doesn't start getting better for

everyday Americans,

then Republicans are going to lose in

midterms.

That does that will show up in data.

That will show up in polling data and

will actually contribute to the

potential of getting stimulus checks

next summer because I think Republicans

are going to go crap. If the economy

doesn't get better, we have to do

something to get people to vote for us.

Quick checks. It could happen. That's

why I put it at a 30% chance because I

think there's a good chance vast

majority of our consumer economy is

already in a recession. Financial

markets don't want to hear that because

well, they're not pricing it in at all.

So

I mean the problem though with stimulus

is you know you always risk creating

inflation but that you know came out of

co because we printed so much money. I

think the bigger issue is deflation not

inflation about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes. Congratulations man.

You have done so much. People love you.

People look up to you.

>> Kevin Praath there financial analyst and

YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to

get your take.