Yikes. We NEED to Talk about the Future of Tesla Stock. [$TSLA]

juice my margins damn it Joseph don't

underprice the Cyber truck milk this

sucker probably gonna have to sell some

stock

just saying Game Changer hey everyone me

Kevin here in this video we've got to do

a complete the Tesla update from Elon

Musk driving Tesla's self-driving 12.0

what this means for artificial

intelligence Nvidia and some of the

other world competition or lack thereof

we're also going to start with the nhtsa

letter on what the heck is happening

with this investigation into autopilot

and how it's potentially actually good

news which is pretty wild uh and then

we're gonna talk about what's going on

with supercharging Revenue put that into

some valuation models it's been a while

since we've done an updated valuation

model so we're going to do that in this

video uh we'll also talk about some of

these differences between Hardware 3 and

Hardware 4. I do quickly want to give a

heads up that tomorrow we have an

expiration for the coupon codes linked

Down Below on the programs in building

your wealth whether it's real estate

stocks or otherwise and house hack has

started buying real estate we're already

three Deals deep in just two weeks of

buying real estate we expect those to

contribute hundreds of thousands of

dollars to house hacks cash flow reason

I'm mentioning that that is because we

expect to be able to do our

non-accredited fundraise this well in

September which is basically this month

so we're really excited about that make

sure to go to househack.com to be

notified for when our full prospectus is

ready for you to read and review since

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we're really excited about that stay

tuned for that we'll also this time have

a pro forma included so that way you

could see our roadmap for not only how

we think we can get to tens of millions

of dollars of free cash flow fast but

then eventually IPO so stay tuned for

that big deal why not advertise these

things that you told us here I feel like

nobody else knows about this we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin financial analyst and YouTuber

meet Kevin always great to get your take

so what we have on screen here is

Hardware 3 versus Hardware four what I

think is really interesting about this

is uh we used to run all of uh the the

video work for artificial intelligence

on 720. this is hardware 3 showing now

going out to a 1280x960 and then

Hardware 4 using even a slightly uh

larger resolution works out to about 10

percent larger you can see the frame

rate is a lot smoother on that Hardware

4 setup and really remember that when it

comes to the latest and greatest

artificial intelligence that Tesla is

running what they're doing is they're

running video AI so that's very

important to know because if I just

pause this screen the old school

artificial intelligence is going to take

this screen and then ask a human labeler

after Auto labeling it themselves so

that is the software Auto labeling

itself you're going to have an option

that's going to say hey can a human

labeler confirm that this is indeed you

know whatever sign it is just for

Simplicity let's say it's a stop sign

human labeler can confirm hey is this

image a stop sign we can say yes no

misidentification and this is a way of

training the neural net

the important thing here is a higher

resolution is going to help us do this

from further away it is going to enable

us to stitch together video footage more

clearly a higher frame rate set of data

is going to give us more clear data to

train on

but something that most miss when it

comes to artificial intelligence is that

the more data you feed into these

systems the stronger compute power you

need obviously to put all of this data

together because every time you train

with better data you should be

retraining your algorithms your neural

Nets the reason for that is usually when

you have artificial intelligence the

best way to train something is by using

data sets that are what you're actually

expecting the neural Nets to operate on

let me clarify that if you're going to

have old autopilot systems that are

trained on still images you basically

have to start over when you're using

video Imaging to train neural Nets now

that's because what you want is that new

neural net to be hardwired based on

seeing video footage rather than still

images and if you then increase the

resolution you honestly might want to

restart your training anyway and then in

test scenarios you compare what is it

like when we train from scratch compared

to when we train using the old methods

point of this is not only does it take

time but it takes a massive amount of

compute

Tesla and Elon Musk recently enabled

about 10 000 Nvidia h-100s on Monday

actually just two days ago 10 000 h100s

were enabled these are data center

server Hardware sets basically in a

server rack you might put 10 of these in

you have a CPU at the top 10 of these 30

000 chip each uh to you know thirty

thousand dollar chip sets each into

these servers to where you've got about

a three hundred thousand dollar server

rack right you put 10 into a server rack

you need about a thousand of these

server racks this is a massive amount of

compute

but Tesla's potential artificial

intelligence processing power on Monday

probably increased the tune of three to

as much as nine X that's at least based

on estimates of Tesla going from an

artificial intelligence system that was

operating off of many a100s the

predecessors to the h100s over at Nvidia

a100s keep in mind are operating at

depending on what you're using them for

about one-fifth to one thirtieth as fast

as h100 systems and Tesla's got ten

thousand h100s that just came online in

other words

Tesla's been able and this is the point

I'm trying to make Tesla's been able to

deliver us such incredible autopilot

technology that we have today where when

I personally drive my on my uh Tesla on

full self-driving I almost don't even

have to intervene anymore there's some

places where it likes to borrow uh the

bike lane by turning too quickly into a

right like in other words when you have

two rights stitched together but the

first right goes into a neighborhood and

the second right turns right onto the

street you want to go on it likes to

borrow that first Lane by cutting off

the bike lane borrowing the first right

and then going straight through that's a

little oopsie-doopsy it's an edge case

it's not supposed to do that because you

cut off a bike lane that ends up cutting

in front of this long and short of it is

Tesla's full self driving today is

already freaking phenomenal

but that's trained using older systems

the a100s slower it's trained using

lower resolution cameras and a lower

frame rate

if we can now take new footage maybe

hardware for footage higher resolution

footage and even if our compute is the

same that's right because we know with

h100s our AI compute should be three to

potentially 9xing right but because

we're injecting so much more data and

information into these servers maybe

we're really just at the same level of

being able to process the same amount of

imagery but we're doing it with higher

quality imagery

what we should expect is an FSD system

that's actually rapidly more capable of

advancing and becoming better at

resolving these Edge case scenarios from

further away so that we practically have

a more functional system sooner

that is what we would expect and it gets

us closer to that vision of full

autonomy no more takeovers for those

Edge case scenarios higher resolution

data video artificial intelligence and

auto labeling and the compute power of

these new systems in my opinion aren't

necessarily going to increase our AI

output but they are going to increase

the quality of our AI output because our

AI input is going to be better

that's my take so in the bottom line of

this whole first segment here is really

to say look

yes Tesla's a and compute is exploding

but what that is doing is it's almost

playing catch up to what's necessary to

get to the next level so I know a lot of

folks are really excited about these

h100s coming online but that doesn't

make me excited for Tesla because I

think that's the bare minimum whether

it's Dojo whether it's h100s or it's

both together it's the bare minimum to

get to the next level but this is a sign

that Tesla is properly investing in

making sure we can continue to make FST

better that's the whole point if Elon

says that's where the margins are going

to come from then let's keep making this

better this is fantastic

but who does it really translate to

earnings for

not Tesla right now it translates to

earnings for NVIDIA because what's going

to happen is as we continue let's say

we're 90 there on FSD now

then that every single one percent is

honestly probably going to take another

10 000 of the latest Nvidia chip

in other words to get to a hundred

percent we might have to go through 10

iterations of the latest h100 chips in

other words when Nvidia comes out with

its next chipsets in a year from now and

it's next chipsets two years from now

Tesla's gonna have to constantly keep

upgrading retraining the neural Nets

which is fine you know we already heard

from Elon which was incredible that the

neural Nets are already learning hey

this is a stop sign this is a speed bump

without actually being told that but

that's basic we already know that that's

how neural Nets work for example

you know look I'm not trying to compare

my artificial intelligence to Tesla at

all okay I'm just trying to say from my

non-engineer mindset when we train we

use Google's tensor cores to train our

artificial intelligence at house hack I

don't tell the software look for this to

identify a wedge deal

I get pictures that feed into us and

then I say that looks like a wedge deal

because mentally I'm like that's a wedge

deal I'm not that's a wedge deal element

that's a wedge deal element whatever and

the software I don't tell it oh look for

Grandma curtains I just identify that

picture makes it look like it's a wedge

deal and then the software starts

learning okay when I see Grandma

curtains it's probably a wedge deal

right or it's a greater chance of being

a wedge deal now there are many factors

that go into that but the point is I'm

not writing that into the code just like

Tesla isn't writing in look for stop

sign and stop there the more you train

it the more it learns that it takes a

lot of compute to do that but again this

compute isn't a revelation this is

what's necessary to get to the next

level for Tesla which is awesome it's

fantastic uh really really exciting so

uh okay that's our AI segment and again

I really think that is one of the

reasons why you almost can't bet on

Tesla without also being long in video

I don't think it's possible I think you

have to almost combine the two because

they are such compliments to each other

they're not competitors to each other at

this point and it's phenomenal and it's

these institutions that have the money

to keep investing so that's my take on

Tesla AI now what about this nhtsa

letter okay this is actually a godsend

and when I first read this I'm like oh

here we go again another regulator's

letter okay it's almost kind of like oh

here we go again Kevin's gonna remind us

about the coupon code because after all

after the 31st the prices are going to

go up a lot because how Sac launches its

investing round in September probably

gonna have to be a course member to get

access to it and you're going to want to

lock in those prices on the courses

because before that we're giving as a

free benefit to course members first

dibs on house hack if we sell out of

those shares it'll be it'll be over so

course members will be in first uh and

we'll be releasing some new lectures of

course the price is going to go up

because we're adding more value anyway

what do we have here from the nhts say

well again the impression was oh no here

we go again here comes another regulator

coming in causing problems for Tesla

right and so basically there's this

thing called Elon mode if you're not

aware of it here's how it works

every like 30 seconds to a minute and a

half depending on how much you're paying

attention or not the car basically says

please apply pressure to the steering

wheel now brand new Tesla owners go like

okay well that doesn't work because

you're not actually applying pressure to

each side of the steering wheel access

what you really need to do is just apply

a little bit of pressure to the steering

wheel access if you go too far you knock

it out of autopilot boom boom uh but if

you just go enough you apply enough

pressure this is why people will put a

weight on their steering wheel so it's

always applying just enough pressure

without disengaging autopilot great

problem is is with this is it's somewhat

dangerous as well because if you go over

a bumpy road now all of a sudden that

weight gets inertia up and boom boom

down and then you get knocked out of

autopilot right balancing and all this

apparently though Elon has had exposure

to potentially some kind of uh Co well

but basically probably programmed this

in this this code in Tesla's called Elon

mode a hacker found it which basically

disables the nag and we call it Elon

mode because we suspect Elon was

probably annoyed by the nag which is

really there because that's what the

Regulators want and he's like just code

this in for me not to have that nag okay

I I get it I don't blame it but anyway I

figured okay the NH TSA is gonna get

really pissed about this so it says here

when enabled this Elon mode so to speak

allows drivers to use autopilot to

operate their vehicles for extended

periods without autopilot prompting the

driver to apply torque to the steering

wheel the nhtsa is concerned that this

feature was introduced to Consumer

vehicles and now the existence of the

future is known to the public more

drivers may attempt to activate it

basically by hacking into it and getting

access to that themselves I would too if

if I was able to do that I absolutely

would try to activate this it's annoying

as anything okay so I thought oh great

here we go They're Gonna they're

threatening to find Tesla 26 315 per day

unless Tesla resolves this right now

that that was the impression that I was

left with right but wait a minute then

what I did is I actually paged through

the rest of this and I went through the

request the definitions and the

instructions which are the requests for

Productions of documents blah blah blah

and what do we find here on page 11.

describe in detail any differences

between the setting in the subject

software that reduces or eliminates

instances in which autopilot prompts the

driver in other words tell us about the

software like how is this software

enabled who has the ability to enable it

how do you enable it right what's the

basis for having installed it all of

this I'm like oh no here we go they're

gonna get pissed they're going to be

pissed right what do we have here lucky

number seven I cannot believe this this

is a mic drop moment right here

describe in detail any Lessons Learned

and or findings from driving the

vehicles with the subject software

update enabled furnished copies of all

documents related to your response wow

wait a minute full stop right there for

a moment this is a regulator going hey

look we know you've installed this and

it's concerning us

but now that you've installed it um have

you noticed it's safer is it actually

good should we get rid of the nag

entirely like tell us more are people

screwing up less because there's no nag

because sometimes when you're driving

you're watching Tesla right you're

watching your car and it's like please

nag and you're like oh this is so

annoying you turn it and then you

accidentally disengage autopilot some

people accidentally disengage autopilot

when they shouldn't disengage autopilot

and then they're more likely to swerve

and hit somebody else than if they just

didn't have the damn nag in the first

place this is an opportunity for Tesla

to tell the nhtsa hey you know we

actually find it's safer to not have the

nag and the nhtsa is open to that

commentary that's what they did they

just invited that commentary Game

Changer it's a game changer for two

reasons number one it shows that this is

not a regulator who is here to shut down

Tesla it is a reasonable regulator and

that those words going together usually

we don't speak that especially on

YouTube especially in these days of

everybody wanting to be like anti-3

letter organizations and anti the

government and anti-bureaucracy and

anti-media and also like especially in

these days today people here regulator

and they're like oh hell nah okay

understandable yeah I'm not here to

defend The Regulators what I am just

here to say

just doesn't sound as bad as it first

seemed now of course then you've got

talk again about this this probe into

potentially glass being purchased at

Tesla for elon's personal purposes some

people are like no it's for the Cyber

truck to get some uh you know uh

bulletproof glass that actually works uh

Tesla fired some people over this glass

and people are like I don't know it just

kind of sucks that all this glass was

bought did was this investor money that

went to elon's personal purposes

it's all exhausting Department of

Justice and SEC are looking into the

secret glass house project

do I really care about that right now no

it's noise it's a rounding error of an

expense it's not worth talking about so

anybody who's really freaking out about

that I don't care Let The Regulators

deal with it and uh and realistically

Tesla will probably deal with it as well

what I care more about are projections

for revenues in the future which we're

going to talk about here in just a

moment as well as potential cyber truck

pricing I want to be crystal clear here

because a lot of people are like oh I

hope Elon doesn't rug pull us and raise

the prices I hope he does

as a Tesla investor I demand okay I'm

not going to say I demand because then

you sound like a d-bag

I would hope

that Tesla would actually

raise the price on these lot this car is

going to be so freaking desirable they

should milk any sucker who wants to buy

this car including myself

now I know that's not what somebody

wants to hear who's on the waitlist at

for buying a cyber truck but any

investor should be like hell yeah Kevin

hell yeah finally somebody says it don't

underprice this damn car they're gonna

be so few of these Tesla cyber trucks

produced that people are going to be

willing to pay a fat ass premium for

this so if that's 69 900 tri-motor ends

up being inflation adjusted to 83 000

that's the bare minimum okay

realistically it should be ninety nine

thousand dollars

juice my margins damn it juice them

don't underprice the Cyber truck milk

this sucker because it's gonna be the

most bitching car out there on the road

and they should not undersell this car

because I want to see some Juiced

margins because you know what it's going

to tell all of Wall Street oh

I sell that car with a 40 margin

only sound of the Tesla Model 3 for

nothing Zelda a model y for nothing who

cares those are generic compared to the

Cyber truck but milk that cyber truck

my demand okay even the the cheap one

that's supposed to be thirty nine

thousand nine hundred dollars oh but I

want it to be affordable so I could buy

a car if you are not gonna buy the Cyber

truck because it's forty seven five

forty seven thousand five hundred

dollars inflation adjusted or it's fifty

five thousand dollars because it's

inflation adjusted and it needs some

margin in there and all of a sudden

you're like dude damn it I can't find

the Cyber truck anymore you shouldn't be

buying it should be buying the stock

instead actually making some money now

of course I'm not your financial advisor

I am a financial advisor I can give

license Financial advice did you know

that I now do give Financial advice I'll

tell you something about the demo by the

way the people who are signing up for

our licensed Financial advice at

stackhack.com I'm Blown Away the average

age is over 30 years old and the average

net worth is over four hundred thousand

dollars

some people have multi millions of

dollars

invested like the people who are coming

to us for financial advice are an 18

year olds who are like somebody please

spank me and tell me to buy less coffee

no we don't do if you really

want actual Financial advice go to

snackhack.com it's a bargain for what

you get we're gonna raise the prices on

that as well after uh the coupon expires

on the 31st which is Jack's birthday

tomorrow by the way oh my God the amount

of flights I have coming up oh I'm just

looking at the calendar this is insane I

think I got like seven flights coming up

over the next seven days actually not

even seven days it's probably more like

four days

we should Vlog it okay anyway so we're

gonna do some numbers on uh uh Tesla and

by the way I don't need to hear about

this Dojo crap uh you know a lot of

people are like

Dojo will be Dojo okay they can they can

grow Dojo the dojo division can grow at

the same time as you can use the good

stuff from Nvidia right now all right

yes am I an investor in a video as well

hell freaking yeah and you should be too

hashtag again not personal financial

advice I don't know what your portfolio

is you know I need your credit report I

need your bank statements I need to I

need to see all your Investments I need

to know your age your personality I I

can't I can't give you Financial advice

or all that kind of without that kind of

stuff so all right we talked about cyber

truck uh that brings us on to uh

charging charging and then revenues and

spreadsheet okay so Dan Ives made this

argument that uh Tesla might be able to

receive about 10 billion dollars in

Revenue by 2030 uh from uh from from

solely

charging Revenue now I don't know about

that because I don't know how much of a

premium Tesla is going to be able to

charge

on uh their electricity that they sell I

hope they can sell it for a premium and

actually milk some nice margin you know

30 40 would be nice in other words they

buy electricity for say 15 cents a

kilowatt hour and they sell it for you

know I don't know a 30 plus so like 18

19 20 cents a kilowatt hour whatever

okay I want some margin it well you'd

have to sell it for more because you're

gonna have expenses and stuff like that

so sell it for 25 cents an hour

I kill one hour I don't really care just

make some money on the charging the

problem is we can't really build that

into projections yet because we have no

freaking idea I will tell you one thing

we do have a freaking idea about and

this is the kind of stuff we talk about

usually in our course member live

streams that I don't bring to all the

public videos because I feel like

sometimes people are like I don't know

man I don't know do I want to really go

through the numbers I'll just give you

the bottom lines okay this is the kind

of fundamental analysis that I like to

teach and we talk about on a daily basis

on our course memory lives I'm just

gonna give you a bottom line on this one

here's chargepoint okay they're blowing

110 million dollars in free cash flow

it's literally the opposite of what we

expect househag to be I mean this is a

complete rip-off not only is it rip-off

they've got 283 million dollars in cash

they have 197 million dollars in

short-term bills to pay at 110 million

dollars in free cash flow annualized

since that number that 110 million

dollar negative and free cash flow was

three months ended okay this is

chargepoint charging company their

Chargers suck at least the ones that

I've tried at like Disneyland and stuff

anyway at 110 a million dollars of

negative free cash flow we're negative

440 million dollars of cash flow

per year which means by April of 2024

unless they get their act together they

have no money or accounts receivables

left

plus they have another 330 million

dollars of long-term liabilities and

taxes to pay but their shareholder

Equity is literally 327 million dollars

in other words you're basically if you

keep going for this next year you are

bankrupting shareholders with this

company unless this company becomes

substantially more profitable so am I

really going to sit here and build in a

bunch of margin for charging revenue for

Tesla no because that's stupid

will the competition pretty much all go

bankrupt yes is that then going to let

Tesla charge more and create more margin

for themselves in the future yes is that

going to mean higher supercharging rates

yes because Tesla will have large PP

pricing power duh

you hear so much garbage in the EV world

don't even get me started off Vin fast

Min fast is the biggest pump and dump

scam I have seen in years don't even get

get me started on them I might have to

do a separate video on that

you know I had somebody this morning

after we went through it in the course

member live streams they're like how

does the SEC approve this and then I had

to teach all the course members

what the sec's actual job is

I'll let that sink in for a moment if

you didn't watch that course member

livestream yet go watch it you could

always 2X and back that's actually what

most people do I think we get about two

to three thousand people a day who watch

the course member live streams just

watch them back on 2X

all right what do we have here

Revenue per vehicle I've got you at 45

000 Tesla and a 25 it's already coming

up hey you might notice something I

actually cut my estimate for how many

vehicles down to 30 or 3.5 million

you'll note that's a 35 gross rate okay

I'm bringing their margin back to 20

average by the end of 2025. I am not

putting in charger Revenue I am putting

in uh about a 5.2 billion dollar charge

for

um FSD take rate I'll put in 10 for

energy so about 15 Bill gross for energy

FSD uh margin I put an expense of

basically two percent so it's basically

almost pure pure margin right uh pure

profit energy I only have them at 10

margin this could honestly be better uh

you know 89 expenses okay whatever so

what do we care more about now what we

care more about is what is this going to

mean in terms of how much money am I

going to make in the future on Tesla

stock well if the price today is 250

dollars and we have a forward p e ratio

of 34 and we're going to take a PEG

ratio of 1.67 which is above that right

now it's like 2.4 ish it's going to put

us at a future p e ratio reasonable at

57. people get nuts when I say

I'm like bro have you not learned that

companies sell for about a peg of 1.6 to

2

. and uh what you do is you take the

growth rate over the next four years you

multiply it by a peg of 1.6 to 2 and

that's your future p e ratio that's the

way it works low Heap low PE companies

usually have low growth simple take for

example a company that has a growth rate

expected of 10

and they sell for uh a p e ratio of

let's say uh 15 then what you're going

to do is you're going to take 15 divided

by 10. oh my gosh the price surprise 1.5

Peg see how that works lower growth

lower PE and I'm still going to get

comments on this I know anyway that

gives us a reasonable by the end of 2025

which is only two years away now of

about 417 that is 417 it's about a 30

percent compounded annual rate of growth

personally I think I could beat that

with house hack but I still love Tesla

so anyway uh if we point of this is

I think we can get to this level

probably sooner through some kind of

euphoric hype but let's say we got to

420 by the end of the year by the end of

2023 it probably makes sense to start

selling a little bit because you're

pricing in too much too much excitement

and the amount of AI spend that Tesla's

going to have to do to keep up with the

latest and greatest in getting to those

next neural net levels and they're going

to give that money to Nvidia it's going

to be very high it's going to take a

while to get those margins back up again

unless they really start cranking out

cyber trucks at a premium baby

print them at a premium if they

underpriced the Cyber truck

at the same like let me put it this way

okay

if the Cyber truck gets underpriced

and the stock is going crazy like let's

say let's say it's

it's September basically now let's say

it's October November and let's say it's

November when they announced the Cyber

truck pricing and they do the Cyber

truck delivery event right they

announced that in November and and Tesla

stock is say 350 or 380 or something

like that and they underpriced the Cyber

truck

probably gonna have to sell some stock

just saying if they overpriced at Cyber

truck and they sell all of it which they

will

have to subscribe to see what I'm up to

thanks so much for watching check out

Financial advice linked down below

houshank.com and the courses on building

rough coupon code inspiring tomorrow

thanks so much for watching and

next time congratulations man you have

done so much people love you people

looked up to you which I say yes meet

Kevin where does this mean we are in the

economic cycle should we be thinking

about buying real estate should we be

thinking about buying stocks I have a

background in real estate as a real

estate agent real estate broker real

estate investor a stock market investor

and fund manager why not advertise these

things that you told us here we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes

always great to have you on Kevin

financial analyst and YouTuber meet

Kevin