wow wtf

all right look I'm gonna shoot you

straight in this video about all the

crazy stuff that's going on right now

we're gonna talk BTC we gotta talk about

the numbers that came out this morning

we gotta talk about some other bottom

lines and insights on that we found out

just over the last few hours here which

I think are incredibly useful and

functional for us to pay attention to so

let's get right into it it is coupon

expiration day link down below and

Tuesday will be July 4th so markets will

be closed on Tuesday and guess what

Monday markets will actually close early

about three hours early actually exactly

three hours early because they'll close

at 1 pm eastern time which is usually

when it closes in Pacific Time hence

three hour difference anyway okay so

first let's talk about BTC we just got a

heads up from the Wall Street Journal

that the SEC thinks the current bitcoin

filings including those for an ETF by

BlackRock are inadequate this

temporarily LED Bitcoin to fall down to

about 29 400. it did rebound after that

so it's not back to about it so 31 000

so it's still about 900 800 uh dollars

roughly under that now at the time of

this recording that could change but

here's basically what's going on in my

take on that and why it's potentially

not good okay so the SEC wants what's

known as a data sharing agreement and

what's really complicated about this is

usually you have a data sharing

agreement between the broker The

Exchange and then the regulator and the

reason the Regulators want data data

sharing okay data sharing that shouldn't

be complicated it's just simply the SEC

wants transparency they want to know

who's buying and who's selling so that

way they can see okay is there

manipulation going on in this market or

not

there's a big problem with that though

first of all in a typical data sharing

agreement you're going to have a market

that looks like this okay think about

think about this like old school days

and this is super useful in my opinion

to understand think about old school

days you got a house a big building over

here with some beautiful columns or

whatever you're going to bring your silk

over there to trade it right this is

known as a market in other words

modernly here an exchange if you played

RuneScape you know Grand exchange the

cool thing about an exchange is you

don't need to know who the buyer is of

the stuff you're selling and you don't

need to know who the seller is the stuff

you want to buy you just go to The

Exchange go this is what I need and they

may help put buyer and seller together

however the SEC

wants to play God over here and because

that's what they do they supervise

and they want to see who's buying and

selling they want to see order book

information they want to see flow

information

in a normal Market you actually have a

broker uh that is going to say it over

here and this is going to be like your

Vlad the Impaler of stocks when we like

Vlad though to some extent right we we

all gotta have our thoughts about Vlad I

think he's got a good heart we had some

problems with the gme but we'll save

that for a different video so what do we

got here we got Vlad over here okay he

is going to stand outside The Exchange

and be like yo you want to do some

commission free trading just give me

your order and I'll take your order and

you know don't mind the fact that we're

gonna hand that off to you know the

citadels or The Virtue virtues over the

world or whatever and they're gonna go

market make on the exchanges because

they have the desks at the exchanges uh

and and they basically control the

trading floor okay and then there's

money made over here there's money made

everywhere they make money they make

money they make money everybody makes

money uh SCC watches everybody make

money and then they get sad because

everybody else is making money and

they're getting paid by the government

hey you know what it's good in case

you're looking for a solid retirement

job security uh but yeah you know

there's obviously some tension between

the private sector and government

because of that as well so anyway

uh ordinarily uh this is how a market

works but the problem with BTC is well

you've actually done is you've you've

combined all of these functions right

here and so where the SEC is ordinarily

able to individually monitor all of

these three different entities they're

all Consolidated and the companies are

Consolidated into mostly now are binance

for Bitcoin like 80 percent of trading

volume is done through binance and then

the rest is done through like a coinbase

and some of the others right why is that

a problem the SEC hates Finance

and to some extent they also don't like

coinbase I mean look at what's going on

with coinbase you got coinbase it's like

hey SEC let's work together SEC is like

yeah sounds good and then you get hey uh

so we wanna you know do this and we want

to be licensed and we want to be above

board the SEC is like

and then coinbase is like Hey Y'all

Gonna reply to us

hey you know what what about this what

if we do it this way says coinbase nasty

C is like we're gonna sue you Wells

notice and Clovis is like yo we well

we've been trying we've been giving you

all these ideas and now here's your

lawsuit and to some extent it's because

the SEC is going we I'm assuming behind

closed doors I think they're like

on one hand we have no idea how to

regulate this because Congress hasn't

acted on this so you could blame

Congress because there's no law so the

SEC is like let's let a judge figure it

out and then once they tell us what to

do then we can actually regulate it they

lack the clarity

So In fairness that makes sense

now on the other hand you have Eric

ensler who may have Freudian slipped I

don't know if I was sitting down with

Gary I would ask him I go was this uh

you know intentional but on one hand

when Gary Gensler on a CNBC interview

just a couple weeks ago said

digital currency what do we need digital

currency for we already have the dollar

and you could trade that digitally

that was a problem that was not good

it's one thing if you want to say look

we need data sharing agreements we need

transparency but when you're like we

just fundamentally don't want anything

threatening the dollar it kind of makes

people go

wait a second

what is actually happening

anyway so so that's that's what's going

on in the whole ATC world but we got

other things going on as well uh for

example just to catch you up in case you

missed it this morning we got University

of Michigan consumer sentiment

expectations uh and then we got pce

numbers and keep in mind all this drama

around crypto in my opinion

something to note between now and like

mainstream crypto adoption and

regulation mainstream crypto regulation

you ready for this thesis you ready for

thesis thesis engage thesis okay watch

this Kevin thesis here okay what on the

right side we're gonna have what we call

crypto is regulated okay the red line

is time

now we are probably right

here what do you think happens between

here

and here

the safest asset is probably stocks

instead of crypto

that means when you actually get crypto

regulated you have big upside

potentially but the question is how much

opportunity costs do you give up waiting

between now and then well if you look at

Bitcoin it's actually performed decently

here today so maybe you're actually not

giving up a lot of opportunity costs but

I think that in order for you to get

real flows coming in again it's going to

take some time uh and uh right now it

doesn't seem like it's getting any

closer as much as there was excitement

about BlackRock filing their ETF which

they I've got they've only had like one

ETF fail for a non-transparent ETF which

ended up that kind of ETF ended up

getting approved later anyway by the SEC

so they have a near perfect record of

over 500 ETF file it's all getting

approved now the SEC is even telling

them don't even try

too soon

I think people thought that they had

like an end with the SEC and they were

gonna get this slam dunk anyway okay so

moving on so what do we have we've got

now we got to talk about what happened

with inflation Expectations first of all

University of Michigan inflation

expectations solid 3.3 the expectation

was 3.3 last was 3.3 for the one year

five to ten year you're looking at three

percent three percent three percent so

basically all totally expected pce

numbers month over month came in at

point one versus the 0.4 but that was

expected we were looking at month over

month core came in at point three as

expected year over year core came in one

tenth lower which was great we do not

want inflation escaping right now uh us

like it sort of has done in the United

Kingdom bond yields flat which is

actually after the GDP report kind of

crazy because you have inflation

trending down but treasury yields

trending up right now at about 3.84 and

they just keep going up and they keep

staying High

ultimately that will be bad for Real

Estate it's just going to take more time

okay then what we also have to remember

is it's not just uh what's going on in

in the market in terms of of uh treasure

yields or these inflation expectations

which inflation expectations are also

stable at about 2.17 obviously right now

people are worried about the fed and

because of this they're relatively

underweight you've got the Bank of

America fund manager survey telling us

the fund managers are 32 underweight

think about that doesn't mean they're

skinny it means they lack allocation to

stocks now people have sentiment has

changed to overweight for things like

Tech Apple just hit a three Trill

evaluation but what does it mean

for you what is it importantly mean for

you it's something we talked about in

the live stream this morning

it means you got to check out the

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I know we've said it before but consider

this

coupon expires tonight for six years

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still getting free value imagine it's

six years from now it's 2029 and you're

like I wonder what Kevin's opinion is

and you pop into the course member live

and you're like hey yo Kevin what do you

think about this and then Kevin's like

oh let's talk about that this course

member lives kind of useful so uh if you

want to have that engagement join the

courses link down below email us for a

bundle if you want one at

staffmecaven.com okay so what do we need

to know though about these weights this

is something we talked about this

morning in the life

I believe and I said this morning I

thought it was crazy but I think it's

accurate I believe that everybody else

being underweight equities is actually a

market Hedge for moi in other words if

everybody else is underweight

then anytime there's a little dip Italy

doodler

somebody else just comes in to buy and

that ends up creating a floor under

Equity prices for me see I drew this out

this morning on the live where the

purple line shows you prices of stocks

the bottom line is time and the green

line is I believe that people are going

to allocate to stocks more over time

that's part of the Nike Swoosh thesis

but because people are so underweight

every bad event gets bought and when

every bad event gets bought you end up

having a floor that floor is actually a

free Hedge for people who own stocks now

that's really awesome because a lot of

people are like ah you know I got a

hedge in fact what inspired me to talk

about this was this lady this morning on

cnbc's like wow well we didn't miss the

rally we've just been hedging I'm like

okay hedging is no excuse for being

under allocated and then of course we

went through this TS Lombard piece and

we were talking about how basically

we have positive real rates and yeah we

might get another 25 basis point hike

which is priced in at this point another

25 BP fully priced in some folks are

like Kevin why why is the market not

going down then if we just priced in

another 25 BP because we're talking

about 25 to 50 BP last year we were

talking about 500 BPS ahead of us we're

one tenth of the pain ahead of us

who cares look right through that and

then you look at company earnings like

Nike which we got to talk briefly about

Nike okay so Nike first of all you're

still in the earnings recession right

you've got net income that's down 28

year over year but what was remarkable

about Nike

was they actually expect

that their full price realization

they've enjoyed over the last year which

has helped them prop up prices will Wane

that there's too much competition that

we're still in a discounting environment

and even though they're going to try to

raise prices one to three percent in in

the next year starting tomorrow July 1

through the next year raise prices one

to three percent low single digits which

is not a lot that's right in line with

inflation where inflation should be

they're actually talking more about

having to potentially liquidate more

inventory because they're still elevated

on inventory and we're still in a

promotional Market those are some of the

things that we analyze by the way also

again in the course member live streams

because we go through the earnings um we

go through the earnings calls we did a

fundamental on on Facebook as well I

think on Monday we're doing ion q and

Canadian Solar so we just go through

analyze analyze analyze and get a full

database of all these analyzes but this

I mean broadly combined with the pce

numbers we're getting here we're just

not seeing signs of potentially this

explosion again with the exception of

air travel maybe although the last CPI

reports showed negative for the last two

months in a row for air travel airfare

is year over year though

pricey and that's why a lot of companies

are buying planes like crazy it's one of

the reasons I have exposure to Embraer I

think it's a more Pure Play I don't

think it says uh you know overvalued as

potentially something like a Boeing

where you've got first of all the max

issues but then you've also got more of

the military and defensive uh

Investments that can flow into this

whereas with embra air it's just a plain

manufacturer and they make Great Planes

usually you get more of the regional

planes if you have ever been on like a

short flight which I'm sure you all have

but if you've ever been on like a 30 to

90 minute flight most of those planes

pull that seat back pocket out look at

it I bet you you're flying on an Embry

airplane you've probably been on them

before they're phenomenal the Brazilians

they've done a great job with these

plans so Embry air is another stock that

I've been uh acquiring since about 11

bucks I think right now it's a little

bit higher than that what do we have

like 1544 so we've had some recovery

here uh but anyway pay attention to that

one so otherwise what do we have broadly

here so we have some crypto news we've

got some inflation news and uh Apple had

a three trillion evaluation and

everybody's taking off to party on

Tuesday uh now what else well I do

expect that we get would have some

volatility towards the end of the day

today as we finalize our end of the year

rebalancing but it may not actually

happen today what do I mean by that

think about that for a moment

uh end of half Year by the way I

shouldn't have said end of year it's end

of half year so think about that

why would that not potentially be today

why I got to think about I'm like oh

wait a minute you have a settlement time

frame if you really want to be

rebalanced by today

you would have already done your selling

over the last week because you have at

least you have t plus two trade plus two

days to settle so if you want to be

settled up by the end of the half a year

you're already done rebalancing so that

could actually be a positive Catalyst I

think going into

really the next second half of a year so

you know I don't want to continue to

have this impression of that I'm only a

Perma Optimist I promise every single

day I'm looking for the bear narrative

every single day I'm reading reports all

day long this is what I do on screen now

every single day I'm looking at charts

like this trying to understand what's

going on no inventory bottlenecks

anymore even Inland it's not just the

ports it's it's uh chassis it's trucks

it's warehouses every single day I'm

trying to look at reports and understand

what's going on no massive surges of

restocking expected manufacturers and

purchaser manager indexes uh indices

still slightly low uh which is good it's

not an inflationary impetus it is a

disinflationary impetus uh really

another raid hike already from the FED

being priced in is fantastic and

potentially increasing bets for another

25 BP thereafter Market doesn't care

anymore about the FED as long as we

don't get an inflation surprise like

that one scary chart and it is a scary

chart some people honestly were trying

to make this argument that like this

chart doesn't matter that the bank of

England reporting uh along with uh the

United Kingdom that uh their inflation

gauge shot up to a 31 year high some

people like oh this doesn't matter and

I'm like what are you smoking like legit

what are you on to say this chart does

not matter this chart is really

bad

this is core inflation jumping to the

highest level since 1992. the problem is

you started petering out you started

having a decline in core inflation but

no all of a sudden it goes from like 5.8

percent to 7.1 that's horrible if that

happened in the United States we'd have

massive problems I probably instantly

turn into a bear I don't think I would

flip-flop I don't think it'd be enough

to instantly flip-flop but I would go

oh okay maybe maybe buy some hedges

which volatility might Spike if that

happens so maybe it makes sense to have

some Hedges going into it

next CPI report is on the 12th uh mark

your calendar for the 12th let me give

you some expectations really quick final

reminder course is expiring tonight

email us at Kevin sorry staff meet

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response really doesn't matter which one

you email but you'll get a faster

response at staff uh and then uh you can

ask about bundles or whatever just let

us know which ones you're looking at

so CPI expectation for July 12th is CPI

month over month point two CPI core

point three

both of those a little changed from last

month and then the year over year

expected to be at five percent for core

the headline is not out yet that might

be even lower so anyway

look

there's the news for you I hopefully you

appreciated this but holy moly uh I

wasn't expecting uh to cover all of this

it was a good 19 minutes I think we did

well I think that deserves a like and I

almost never ask for a like on a video

so smash that like button subscribe to

the channel if you haven't already and

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I'll make sure not to pitch that the

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value than meet Kevin thanks for

watching

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