This is BAD for the Bitcoin ETF [Big Catalyst COMING]

in this video you are going to learn the

biggest crypto Catalyst that is not the

Bitcoin ETF coming up we're going to pay

attention to dates Jan 5 Jan 16 plus 15

you'll understand that in this video if

you stay to the end you'll understand

why the Unis swap decision is so

critical for what's about to happen this

is big and we'll talk coinbase versus

other brokerages like Robin Hood I don't

know if anybody's really paying

attention to this one so buckle up let's

get into it there's a major Catalyst on

the horizon for Bitcoin and the entire

crypto industry and no it's not the ETF

for Bitcoin sure that's a catalyst as

well but this is a potentially bigger

deal in fact this could be what ends up

holding back the BTC ETF for just at

least a little bit longer but let's just

say this could be some really good news

what's up on screen right here so let's

understand this this right here is

actually an order that that has been

signed by the SEC by folks over at

coinbase and the judge presiding over

this case between the lawsuit of the SEC

versus coinbase and this order demands

that on January 17th of 2024 oral

arguments on the motion for judgment

will be made there will be about 4 hours

of oral arguments to be divided equal by

each side on the

17th and there are some really big

important implications for this first of

all what does this mean okay so let's

understand this so basically here's how

this works and this is critical first

the

SEC sues coinbase that's step number one

okay hey we think you're an unregistered

brokerage selling securities and we want

you to sign up to be a national

Securities Exchange that's basically

what the SEC is saying coinbase says

you're wrong as a matter of a law so

they file a motion saying look judge we

just want you to throw this out look at

this case look at the facts and the law

the SEC is using and agree with us that

the SEC does not have a leg to stand on

then the SEC can uh respond to this uh

this statement and then there's a reply

after that okay so there's a little bit

of back and forth and then the judge

make makes a ruling and so when that

judge rules or before that judge rules

usually what they'll do is they'll

listen to oral arguments and they might

even sometimes issue a preliminary

ruling as early as the night before so

potentially on January 16th mark your

calendar for that look for potentially a

preliminary ruling this is kind of like

a cop pulling you over and saying pretty

sure you ran the tickets or you ran the

stop sign so I'm going to write you a

ticket and they kind of come up to the

window you ran that stop sign right like

well can we talk about this right so

that's sort of this potential for a

preliminary ruling is that judge

suggesting here's what we think is going

on and which side we're likely to agree

with it's entirely possible that this

judge right here the honorable Catherine

pulk FAA anyway it's entirely possible

that she could rule the SEC has no leg

to stand on Via the preliminary ruling

as soon as January 16th that'll be a big

Catalyst or after listening to the oral

arguments which could be on the 17th or

maybe even up to two weeks thereafter to

file the final ruling and the ruling

could either be coinbase is right the

SEC doesn't have a leg to stand on which

might mean the idea that crypto is a

security is potentially Dead Forever or

at least you'd have a pretty strong

legal precedent here that that is dead

forever and then the SEC might go poof

in terms of being able to Sue coinbase

or arguing that Bitcoin or other

cryptocurrencies are security that could

be a pretty big catalyst so anywhere

between January 16th and two two weeks

15 days is thereafter we're expecting

some pretty big groundbreaking rulings

here out of Le system on crypto now

there's a big problem with this the big

problem with this is right here look at

this the ETF approval window technically

expires between January 5th and January

10th that means a lot of the Bitcoin ETF

hype could potentially fade between

January 10th if we don't get that

approval and what happens with this case

I think a big highlighter will be be

cast over this case because let's say

the SEC loses here the SEC might say all

right well it looks like we'll approve

these ETFs in the next round of

approvals in other words blacks uh you

know all all these you know crypto ETFs

will end up just refiling so to speak uh

and then the SEC would presumably be

almost cornered into having to prove or

or approve or qualify these ETFs since

technically they don't like the phrase

approve or if the judge comes out with a

ruling that says you know what we're

going to let this case actually go to

trial to Kick the Can down the road a

lot that is of course assuming the SEC

is waiting for the outcome of this case

to actually approve the ETFs it is

entirely possible these ETFs could get

approved and the lawsuit continue so we

don't know exactly but what I will say

is While most people are bullishly right

now watching this ETF approval window a

lot of folks are forgetting about this

ongoing lawsuit again between the SEC

and coinbase now this has a lot of

implications first I I want to make it

clear coinbase is making a very strong

argument they're saying the sec's

authority is limited to Securities and

not every parting of capital in the

hopes of a gain qualifies actually in my

opinion give a fantastic example the

example they give is right here look at

this consider an artist who sells

paintings over Etsy with a note that she

is planning to exhibit her work in a

gallery next month those who read the

note might buy the paintings hoping the

artist plans to increase her exposure

will drive up the value of the artwork

in the sec's world viw every single sale

of a painting on Etsy would be a

Securities transaction this by the way

is literally one of the arguments

coinbase is making in that lawsuit a

judge is expected to potentially make a

preliminary ruling on on January 16th

and a more final ruling within the two

weeks thereafter so these are some huge

catalysts but this is not all we've got

to talk about because there's a lot to

talk about in terms of coinbase and the

future of BTC pricing take a look at

this by the way just so you could see it

here this is the sec's argument coinbase

has never registered with the commission

as a national Securities Exchange broker

dealer or clearing agency these things

will become very very important for the

future of coinbase but in the meantime

you know what else is interesting look

at this Ford yeah the car guy Henry Ford

from like 100 years ago actually about

104 years ago predicted uh or wanted to

replace gold with a quote energy

currency and thought by taking away the

money printer and the power so to speak

of the government maybe there would be

less war and boy that sounds a whole lot

like bitco coin now next I want to get

into a little bit of what an ETF

approval could mean for brokerages

specifically companies like Robin Hood

versus coinbase which company might

benefit more from an ETF spot Bitcoin

approval coinbase or Robin Hood we'll

also talk about the future of bitcoin's

price but first message from our sponsor

hey so many of you have been asking how

hard it is to actually go live on

multiple different platforms at the same

time and I want to show you here how

easy it is so let's just do it raw

together so watch this this is

streamyard decom and all I have to do is

go over here to create add a live stream

and look at this I can pick the meet

Kevin channel to go live on and if I

want to multistream to Twitch I click

that Twitter I click this and then I

could go uh I don't know we'll type in

something like Moon live stream and then

we can go ahead and schedule that for

let's say 2:15 I can upload a thumbnail

if I wanted to uh and then I can create

live stream and when it's time to go

live let's for example unlist this for a

moment so we don't actually go live on

Moon live stream but when it's time to

go live I simply have this live stream

created I can pre-schedule that enter

studio and then once I enter the studio

I can simply hit go live obviously We'll

add our camera and our network over here

but that's how simple it is to go live

with streamyard so if you've ever wanted

to know how to go live and make your

life really easy to multistream check

out metkevin.com streamyard yeah look I

use streamyard every single day so even

though it's a paid promotion it's a

product I use every single day and it's

great but for now let's talk coinbase

did you know that

85% of coinbase's volume that is how

many transactions happening in dollar

volumes are

institutional

85% that means $85 out of every $100

institutional now about a little over

onethird of all of the transactions are

Bitcoin about

38% but do you know where coinbase gets

most of its revenue from I want you to

think about this do you think coinbase

gets most of its revenue from that 85%

institutional trading or the

15% retail and consumer trading hm well

here's your answer right here 85% of

transaction volume might be

institutional but it only represents

4.8% of transaction Revenue instead

almost all of coinbase's transactional

Revenue comes from consumers and so now

there's a big question uhoh does coin

bases profit potentially from consumer

Bitcoin Co transactions well which let's

call it about a 100 Mil of that right

let's say right here 100 Mil of this is

BTC transactional revenue does that

potentially go away if a lot of retail

can potentially trade Bitcoin in ETFs

rather than on

coinbase that's just an idea I'm not

saying that's exactly what's going to

happen and coinbase has a benefit

including custody which we'll touch on

in just a moment but think about that

for a moment in order to actually trade

an ETF the trading must be done through

a broker dealer guess what coinbase is

not a broker dealer we just saw that in

the lawsuit so coinbase can't actually

trade Bitcoin

ETFs but they can trade actual Bitcoin

and they can custody the actual Bitcoin

which may be the underlying of an ETF

but is it then possible that companies

like Robin Hood or fidelity actually end

up making more money off of a Bitcoin

ETF than coinbase does some people say

yes other people say don't worry any

loss over here of consumers basically

just buying spot Bitcoin through an ETF

would be made up by this custody crypto

revenues a lot of folks believe that

coinbase is going to charge somewhere

around 10 basis points for cryp crypto

custody Services now that's a

complicated word but let's just make it

simple for every $100 billion that goes

into Bitcoin ETFs that are custody which

means actually holding the real Bitcoin

that's underlying that ETF uh every $100

billion that goes in would generate

about a $100 million of coinbase Revenue

at 10 basis points now it's possible

custody Services could compress and

maybe the fees for that will go down but

coinbase seems to be positioned to make

make this custody fee Revenue explode

even if this goes down in my opinion

this is actually part of that explosion

of other or Phase 2 income for coinbase

back when coinbase ipoed I mentioned

that coinbase was likely to face a

v-shaped sort of recovery in the future

and what I was predicting was that in

the future I think transaction revenues

will actually Decline and other revenues

will go up custody Services lend in

services and otherwise and I predicted

that could lead to some volatility in

the stock which it certainly has had

volatility now we might just now be at

the beginning of the takeoff of phase

two which if you'll notice is already

exceeding the revenue of phase one phase

one right here just transactional

Revenue $288 million phase two the other

revenues already at 334 so that could

really blow up you could really see this

go to zero and this really blow up even

further so that's a potential for

coinbase so something to pay attention

to we're not entirely sure what's going

to happen but here's one thing that we

do know here's a comment from the suits

and the suits are saying hm you know not

only is there excitement about the

having next year the expectation of an

an ETF approval but also the regulatory

house cleaning of frauds going to prison

is actually a

fantastic positive Catalyst for crypto

because you're really cleaning out all

the crap

uh not to say that it was crap but B USD

just got Dlisted over at uh binance they

Dlisted their B USD as paos walked away

from the partnership you just had a 13th

firm a Swiss firm called Pand one letter

away from Panda uh take the 13th spot

for expected BT BTC ETF approvals or

hopefuls I should say BTF ETF BTC ETF

hopefuls there we go let's get those

letters right but anyway you can see a

lot of them here using coinbase you've

got uh not only grayscale Arc I shares

listed as coinbase Franklin listed as

coinbase you've got one over here at

Fidelity you've got some na or tbds

basically and binance had an interesting

blog post actually referencing binance

they said the historical case for gold

ETFs is worth examining although a spot

Bitcoin ETF cannot be expected to

produce a similar effect when we go back

and look at history what we saw is when

we introduced gold ETF

GLD the largest gold ETF by AUM we saw

the ETF go from 1 billion in assets to

50x in six years between 2004 and 2010

now In fairness gold was also very

popular after the Great Recession and 1

billion to 50 billion would kind of be a

drop in the bucket for Bitcoin we hope

that there could be a lot more remember

coinbase makes about $100 million in

revenue for every 100 100 billion doar

they're custody at 10 basis points if

those end up being the numbers so you

really want to see BTC ETFs explode to

help coinbase otherwise

ironically the brokerages might end up

making more money interactive brokers

whatever anybody who's letting you trade

that ETF obviously Bitcoin has done

fantastically this year outperforming

not only World stocks gold bonds and

commodities as you can see here

Commodities actually negative for the

year but take a look at this I thought

this was a great tweet reminder Bitcoin

is not at an all-time new high until we

break 78,000 because the inflation

adjusted by

13.5% I would actually inflation adjust

from 21 to now at about 18% which would

mean that number should actually be

about

81,000 uh but we could argue that and

then of course you have the sort of

mainstream more fish stuff that goes

around on Twitter which it I I like

reading it just to see what other people

thing and so for crypto there's no

inherent value no cash flow no yield no

employees no management there's no

balance sheet no product no service no

history of operations no analytical

valuations no earnings reports no proven

track record of

Reliance anyway so basically this person

goes on to say this is a greater fool

than I fomo market and uh this person

had some prompt responses on Twitter

which worth noting he's also followed by

Gordon Johnson the Tesla bear we've

visit him at his house he actually a

nice guy in person uh these were some of

the replies uh that happened I'm glad

there's no Market manipulation in

traditional

markets another one cope

John another one all that word salad

when you could have just started with I

don't actually know what I'm talking

about uh sounds like you're describing

the whole financial Market really wow

all right so this right here is the

uh there's some talk right now about

Bitcoin basically being overbought as

you can see via the relative strength

right here gives you a little bit of a

chart although a lot of people are say

oh there's the inflation calculator

again we had that twice uh this is

actually what I wanted to show a lot of

folks very excited that Bitcoin is now a

top 10 by market capitalization asset

gold being number one at $4 trillion

meaning go uh Bitcoin is not even 10% uh

it's barely over 5% of gold Apple

sitting at nearly three Trill followed

by Microsoft Saudi aramco alphabet

Amazon silver Nvidia meta and then

Bitcoin notice Tesla not in that list so

what did we just learn well we learned

we want to Mark our calendar potentially

for a preliminary ruling on January 16th

then we want to look at about the 15

days thereafter as well as of course Jan

5 to10 for that ETF approval window the

Jan 16th maybe preliminary ruling in the

15 days thereafter to see is coinbase

going to get stuck in the mud or not

this could be a really big Catalyst for

cleaning up crypto regulation and

getting some really good precedent from

a judge worth remembering that the very

judge that's involved in this case back

in August suggested that Bitcoin and

ethereum were Commodities that was

actually decided in the uh I believe it

was the uni swap case yeah it was the

uni swap case uh lawsuit against Unis

swap the same judge argued that Bitcoin

and ethereum were Commodities and not

subject to the sec's regulation so you

have some potentially really good

bullish catalysts here for the

cryptocurrency market I personally think

in the future we're going to have our

S&P 500 and NASDAQ of crypto it's going

to be a game Cher so stay tuned and

we'll see what happens thanks bye