Trump LASHES OUT | MAJOR GAME CHANGER

I love this. This is very good. While

markets are enthusiastic that tariffs

are going to be declared illegal,

betting markets now seeing only an 18%

chance at that Donald Trump's emergency

powers are going to stay. Just a few

problems that you've got to know. First

of all, the Supreme Court might be

hearing arguments on tariffs today, but

let's be real, they're not going to make

a decision anytime soon. That's because

of the way the ca the Supreme Court's

docket actually works. We'll have

hearings now on many different topics

and cases. But we won't actually end up

hearing results until after the Supreme

Court justices end up uh discussing or

deliberating with each other the

potential uh outcome and then of course

eventually voting of the legality of

these tariffs. Now, Donald Trump knows

that his odds of winning these AIPA

tariffs aren't looking so good. This is

why we're likely to hear from Donald

Trump how the economy is booming. The

only reason there are uncertainties are

because of the Democrat shutdown, which

is his branding of it, of course. Uh,

and we're obviously going to hear about

some good job numbers this morning,

which in fairness, the ADP report this

morning was smashing. Heavily driven,

mind you, by the West Coast, California,

Washington, and large firm hiring. So,

relatively concentrated. Most of the

country lost jobs. Most businesses

outside of loss large companies lost

jobs. But we still ended up with a

positive jobs read from the ADP private

data collectors. Now we don't have

government layoffs included in there uh

for you know Doge layoffs uh from uh

February that would end up showing up in

September October data. We don't have

that because the government shut down.

But what we do have is enthusiasm

compared to what we saw yesterday and

some changes in the funding market.

Quick note, I want to give you a heads

up of what our I just transparently

reveal to you what my goal was for today

on the NASDAQ. This morning, the NASDAQ

was negative when we were doing our

market open uh and uh pre-market open

course member live stream. The market

was negative on the cues and my

projection was that we will end up going

positive. But not just that, I had a

target of 6:27 for today and 6:30 for

Friday. Now, knock on wood, we might not

make it to 6:27,

but we've gone from 618 to 624 already.

So, I know there are people in the

course live that are like, "Bro, I've

paid for my course many times over." So,

if you haven't checked it out yet, go

check it out at meetke.com. You pay

once, you get lifetime access. uh and it

could be a tax write off for you. But

that was that was an example of of what

we forecast today. Part of that, mind

you, some of the liquidity stress that

we've seen over the last few days has

begun to fade. Now, why has that faded?

Well, probably because of the very

selloff that we had yesterday. Take a

look at this. Funding stress yesterday

almost fell back in line with the last

week of October over here. Actually,

slightly below it. Now, we still see

repo usage, which we haven't seen repo

usage until the last week of October.

So, we're still seeing some repo usage.

But I think one of the reasons this fell

so much yesterday is because there was

so much selling in the stock market. You

raised your liquidity from other ways.

You literally raised $500 billion of

stock market liquidity through selling.

So, what a surprise. You didn't have to

go use $40 billion of the repo

facilities. But I expect more volatility

to come here. Now, did I go bullish

today because of this repo number? No,

because we had a sell-off. That's not a

big deal. What are we bullish on the

alpha report this morning because of the

tariffs? Only in part. I highly

anticipate that these tariffs are going

to be declared illegal, but I've made

this clear for months. The Supreme

Court's not going to rule on this until

April to May. That's my expectation. It

could be as early as February. So, I

could be wrong that it'll end up taking

until April or May. But my assumption is

we're not going to hear about it until

April or May. Could come as soon as

February, but it's not going to happen

today. But what's happening is people

are starting to see the arguments under

the hood. And they're basically like the

core crux of the argument comes down to

is the president allowed to tax without

the authorization of Congress? Now, the

Trump administration is making an

argument that no, we're not we're not

taxing. We're just using emergency

powers to regulate foreign countries.

The fact that they raise tariff revenue

is just incidental to what we're doing.

Now, John Sawyer, US solicitor general

working for Trump, I have a few choice

words for you. You're full of I'm

sorry, but let's be real. The whole damn

point of tariffs is so Trump can go,

"LOOK HOW MUCH MONEY we're raising. Now,

I'm going to spend some of that on money

for the companies bending the knee to

me. money for uh people that I just

pardoned that are going to invest in

World Liberty financial token, money

into whatever other things we want to

spend money on because we're going to

show you how unc like how we uncorrupt

Washington DC because DC was mega

corrupt before I got here. So, let me

show you how not corrupt it is now by

allocating all this tariff revenue

exactly where I want it. And then if you

ask me why I pardon certain scumbag

frauds, I'll be very clear to tell you I

have no idea who you're talking about.

But anyway, Donald Trump's team, they're

going to lose this argument. This is

pretty obvious. It's obvious that

tariffs are designed to raise revenue.

Yes. If anything, I would actually argue

the tariffs are primarily a

protectionist tool designed to raise

revenue and increase uh the ability for

our American firms to manufacture even

though we're really not competitive on a

global scale. And this the the actual

byproduct uh is that uh you regulate you

know our relations with foreign powers.

I think mostly this is hey we want to

try to give a leg up to our

manufacturers and we want to raise

revenues. So, I think they'll probably

end up losing this argument here. Uh,

almost certainly. Uh, now again, we

won't hear about that until next year.

And then, of course, a lot of us are

saying like, hey, like, is this going to

be a good thing though? Is it going to

be a bullish catalyst? Because after

all, we're all looking for

>> bullish catalyst.

>> Yes and no. Yes, it's going to be a

bullish catalyst in the sense that the

tariffs are going to get struck down

between February and May. However,

Donald Trump's just going to use another

section of the tax code or whatever.

He'll move to section 232 tariffs

instead of AIPA tariffs, and then you'll

be right back at a 2-year court fight,

and you're just going to have these

tariffs for his entire administration.

And it ain't going to be until he gets

reamed by Democrats in 2028 and you get

a Democrat president who on day one

cancels all of Trump's stupid tariffs.

That's when the tariffs will go away.

Now, the problem is by then we could be

in a poop or duper recession. Knock on

wood, I hope not. So far, praise the

Lord, so far the labor market is doing

okay. Now, let me show you Kevin's Bear

Bull scale, which you can get totally

for free by going to meet

Kevin.com/data.

It's the free page. Uh oh, look at this.

I just got a $5 donation. Kevin, thanks

for the alpha report and call on QQQ. I

made 3x the membership fee today. Let's

freaking go, dude. Let's go. that I love

hearing that. Uh thank you for saying

that. That's really cool. Uh so uh good

for you. Congratulations. Really happy

to hear that. Uh yeah. Uh yeah, I mean

look, it was not a foregone conclusion

that the market was going to go green

today, but I I you know, I mean, we

enumerated all of our reasons as to why

we thought the market was going to go

green today. We It's not like we're It's

not like I just show market's going

green today, boys and girls. Like I put

together all the information for you so

you can make an informed decision. And

that way also you can know like all

right like if this then that right

that's that's kind of the important part

because I can't hold your hand all day

long so I gota got to give you like

frameworks.

Anyway,

this is uh so the taco scale I've got a

I've got Trump at an eight out of eight

on the taco scale as of today because a

little bit I discounted this a little

bit because of the um the Canada

situation. Uh keep in mind this is at

meet.com/data.

You can also sign up for the daily

wealth email here. Dude, I'm getting so

many emails from people going, "Thank

you for these insights." Like, these are

free insights that you get on the Daily

Wealth. They're really good. Honestly,

we should charge for it. But if you want

this for free, you can sign up for the

Daily Wealth for free. Um, you could

either get that through the Meet Kevin

app or email if you want. Uh, but

anyway, on the Bear Bull scale, so I've

got the Bear Bull scale at about a 5.7

right now because I'm actually bullish

corporate earnings outside of consumer

discretionaries. We just have those

underlying issues around liquidity,

private credit, jobs. These are just

lingering uncertainties that say, "Hey,

these are real issues and and that that

could end up being shocks, right?" Which

isn't great. Uh but these could be

shocks right now. Like yesterday, I even

tweeted this, but we went through the

earnings uh in more detail in the course

member live this morning on AMD. I'm

like, "Guys, these numbers on AMD are

great. You have to understand AMD is

only doing 46%

of their uh uh their revenue from uh

from data centers. Nvidia is doing 88%

from data centers. So like their numbers

could financially transform as they get

into more data center uh uh uh you know

revenues with their open AAI

partnership. I mean a hund00 million or

over or sorry hundred billion dollars

over the next few years is a is is a

gamecher to their revenues. they could

be doubling revenues. It's insane. So

there like the fact that this was

negative -4% yesterday and after hours

I'm like this is dumb. You know AMD had

good earnings but what you know

whatever. So um okay so

the tariff catalyst I think this is this

is pretty clear. I think you understand

my where my head is on this. You could

see some of the commentary on this. AIPA

was directly intended to constrain

authority when it was passed in the 70s

to restrain Nixon. But what's actually

happening is Donald Trump is using AIPA

to expand his authorities.

Justice John Roberts, who's actually

usually a shill for Trump. Do I still

have the sheet or did I finally get rid

of it? I think I finally got rid of it.

Ah, THIS OH, NO. THERE IT IS. THERE IT

IS. There it is. There it is. I found

it. I knew I kept it. I knew it.

John Roberts. John Roberts votes for

Trump 74% of the time. Alto 95% of the

time for Trump. Gorsuch 95% of the time

for Trump. Kavanaaugh 89% for Trump.

Thomas 89 for Trump. Barrett 79 for

Trump. And then of course Kagan. Soayor

and Jackson. They don't vote for Trump.

Take a screenshot of this. Put this as

like the background on your phone. Just

get my fingers out of there. You You

don't need my fingers in there. There

you go. this. Yeah, there. All right,

cool. All right. Uh, like, come on, man.

Like, but the problem is this is just

going too far, but they'll kick the can

so far down the road, it won't feel like

it'll give Trump plenty of time to

adjust. So, then they talk about AIPA

being used to ban certain products like

from Iran or from Russia. Big deal. Alto

asked whether the Supreme Court should

address President Trump's authority to

impose tariffs under uh other under

authorities other than the law at issue.

Oh

Oh. Oh. Alo. OH, THAT THAT line right

there. Y'all know AMD just reported

earnings and right after earnings, the

stock was down like 4.7% in the after

hours. It was nuts. Now, so far in the

overnight, it's recovering and hopefully

it continues to recover tomorrow. But

the question is, is it a good buy at

these prices? And this is where what I

like to do is jump into investing.com.

They're a sponsor of the channel and I'm

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15% when you use my coupon. But here's

what I love. Number one, I'm going to

watch EPS revisions after these

earnings. Okay, AMD only gets like 46%

of their revenue from data centers.

Nvidia gets like 88% from data centers.

So, I want to see that data center

revenue really butter out those OPEX

expenses, operating expenses at AMD,

increasing their margin, which they beat

topline, bottom line margins. So I want

to see EPS revisions and then I want to

see this change over time because if I

take the forward earnings which I can

get from here which is great and I could

look at 26 27 28 29 30 I calculate this

at under a two peg which to me means

there's more upside for this chip

designer absent of course a credit

crisis a liquidity crisis or a labor

recession. Duh. But these were great

numbers and the fact that it's selling

off means maybe there's a buying

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bullish catalyst.

>> Big PP.

>> Kevin is very talented, but I don't know

if it's going to be him, but he's

[music] a very talented guy.

>> I think that Kevin's a a brilliant guy,

and I think that we'd we'd we we'd all

be very lucky to have him.

>> I love this. This is very good. This is

fantastic. This is great. Look at this.

Uh, Alo asked whether the Supreme Court

should address the authority to impose

tariffs under other rules because that's

literally what Trump is just going to

do. I mean, you heard me just say it.

You know, Trump's just going to go, "All

right, fine. You're going to take away

my AIPA tariffs? I'll use section 232."

And then look at this. They even write

here, "That would be unusual." And his

question indicates he may think the

administration is in trouble on the

central issue in the case. Totally,

totally agree, dude. Bullish, bullish,

bullish. Now, that is something I can

get behind.

>> Bullish catalyst.

>> I like that. What a badass. Wait,

where's where's Alto? Alto survey says

Alto votes in favor of Donald Trump 95%

of the time.

And Alto's pissed. DAMN, BRO. OH, THAT

AIN'T priced in. That's good. That's

sexy.

president is seeking power to set aside

all of our trade treaties unilaterally

under the word regulate. I just don't

think it can bear weight.

Uh yeah, Alto asked challengers what

would happen if the president simply

reimposed the tariffs uh using other

authorities. At that point, we'd have

that case, right? Then you'd have to go

litigate that for two years. That's

that's my point. That's exactly the game

plan. I I have to say though, I wasn't

expecting the Supreme Court to

potentially go, "Hey, do we also want to

block all of his ability to add tariffs,

especially since the arguments, you

know, against these tariffs are very

clear. Tariffs are taxes. Our founders

gave the power to tax to Congress."

Major questions doctrine. Uh yeah. So

honestly that line right there and which

just came out within the last few

minutes while we've been recording this

segment here that is huge. So remember

that the major questions doctrine is

basically this this legal principle that

says Congress gives the like gives the

power to enact very specific procedures

like taxation or other things that

aren't explicitly delegated to states or

to the president. They go to Congress

and that's what's being sort of bypassed

here. But that's a big line, man. I'm

I'm jumping up and down on the inside

about that. Uh but this is great. Uh

very good. Uh so okay, listen. Now we

got to talk about the Federal Reserve a

little bit. So uh we did have Meerin

this morning yap that even though the

ADP report was a quote welcome surprise,

he says I would think it's still

reasonable to continue to cut rates.

Remember he's been pushing for 50 basis

point cuts over and over and again. Uh

this ADP report was good. it just it

wasn't like mega broadbased. So, it does

indicate that if we lose that sort of

remaining

uh support, if you will,

you're going to have negative jobs very

rapidly. So, as much as I cheer the ADP

report that we got, I want you to see

just how tight it was. Cuz look, we got

42,000, which is great, but understand

this. If you took away the 74,000 jobs

created by large employers, mind you

what we heard from Walmart freezing

hiring, Target laying off, uh, Amazon

laying off, right? You take away those

large hirers,

what happens to the report? Well, if you

took away the 74,000 gain, uh, you would

be at negative 32,000 jobs. You'd be in

recession. And this right here, most of

those 74,000 jobs or most of the job

gains actually came from the West Coast.

And people hate the West Coast because

it's deemed to be, you know, the libtard

West. I mean, I happen to be in the

libtard west. I guess I actually like

where I live, but uh but anyway, look at

where the jobs are. It's almost all in

the Pacific. 37,000 jobs in the Pacific.

If you took away just the Pacific, you

would have only created 3,000 jobs. So

like, as usual, as much as people dump

on states like California, California is

providing for the rest of the damn

country. It is a donor state, donor

state after all, right? We provide more

to the federal government than we take.

We just have a dumbass governor uh that

I tried to run against, but whatever.

You know, this is this is, by the way,

that's me being politically neutral. Uh

and uh yeah, I mean, look at it. If you

took away the West Coast, bro, this

would be a horrible, horrible jobs

report. So, uh, so you know, good job,

liberals. You got to love them because

they're providing for us once again. Got

to give them credit where credit's due.

Okay. Uh, what am I? Am I a liberal? Am

I a Republican? I have no idea what I

am. I'm I'm Kevin. That's what I am. I'm

an American.

Born in Germany, though. So, does that

make me less of an American? Oh, he's an

immigrant. And don't know, let's deport

his ass. [laughter]

Uh anyway, so uh look,

Myin begging for cuts. No Like, of

course, that's what he's going to do.

THE JOBS REPORT, IT WAS GOOD. OKAY, I I

said in yesterday's alpha report that I

will buy the dip tomorrow if the jobs

report is above my, you know, my my

thresholds.

I did what I said I was going to do.

Obviously, I sent that alert to people

in the alpha report as as we do. Now, if

I look at the odds

of a uh rate cut in December on December

10th, they have fallen from about 69%.

Straight through 67 all the way down to

63%. So, we only like we've lost some

odds of a Fed rate cut here. Uh so,

[sighs]

all right. So jobs good which is bearish

bonds but it's actually it's pullish the

stock market. Now we do we have issues

of course the liquidity issues you know

the fears about valuations. I mean look

at what the economist said. The

economist has this whole piece about how

the sheriff US household assets and

stocks sits at 21% which is basically a

record high. Margin debts are at record

high. We have $42 trillion in household

wealth in the stock market. If we had a

stock market crash, the likes of the

dotcom bubble of a 40% crash, we'd be in

the dump really fast. The the Buffett

indicator is at the highest levels we've

basically ever seen it market cap to S&P

500. Uh we've never been higher than

this. Nobody knows a more expensive

market than what we have here. Uh but

who cares because right now those drop

numbers are good. Now, what's our next

catalyst? The next catalyst,

>> bullish catalyst.

>> What? Why do we want to know?

>> Because that's why.

>> Oh, because that's why. That's right.

Uh, all right. The next catalyst really

is government reopening, which is

bearish. But until then, I think we can

ride the coattails of this good jobs

data and the hope that eventually these

tariffs will be declared illegal.

Although Trump will kick and scream all

the way to the, you know, wherever you

go when you go to tariff jail, I guess.

Um and um although he'll just pardoned

himself, but anyway um yeah, bullish

through reopening. I don't think we're

going to go with the nuclear option, but

I do think we are getting somewhat

closer to reopening, which is also

bullish because if you uh take a look at

even just what we're seeing at um oh,

let me give you uh some of the latest

updates here on uh what we've got. Oh,

by the way, quick shout outs. House

Hack. I'm pretty sure we're now crossing

six figures for the day. Uh, so this is

I thought last month was going to be our

biggest fundraising month for House

Hack. It actually might be November if

this pace keeps going. So anyway, shout

out to those of you checking out

househack.com, read the offering

circular or reinvest the same company.

Uh, so Donald Trump told Senate

Republicans Wednesday the GOP would

become a dead party if they don't get

rid of the filibuster. The problem with

that is Republicans realize if you get

rid of the filibuster, the 60 vote

requirement to get through this,

Democrats are just going to hose you in

2029 when they take control and then

that Republicans have no filibuster to

uh to block this

crazy. So, uh you know, that's that's a

big deal and that's why Republicans are

like, "We don't we could do that, but

that would that would help Trump right

now in his term, but it would screw us

forever." that you know cuz you limit

the ability to basically block things

you don't like which remember that's

what Congress is designed to do nothing

they're designed to be a dysfunctional

entity on purpose founding fathers

wanted that they wanted Congress to come

together only when they truly needed to

because it at least somewhat limits the

spending that government does somewhat

of course they still spend like drunk

sailors but then again you know it's the

federal government and what happens over

time as democracies mature they become

more democratic they become more

socialist Democrats obviously destroyed

Republicans yesterday even Vivik said

that big warning sign to to you know the

MAGAS but uh people are going to get mad

at me for saying MAGAS saying the MAGAS

I don't think is condescending I think

it's just it's an observation but anyway

um

you know to me there is a risk of become

a substantial risk of the government

just continuing to spend into deficits.

But we're not going to have to pay that

bill probably for another 20 years.

There will be a fiscal crisis at some

point in the future and it will reduce

our growth relative to, you know,

countries like China, but uh we don't

have to pay that bill yet. So, we could

be bullish for a while. So, I like that.

I mean, broadly,

>> bullish catalyst.

>> The jobs report today, great. Are there

still concerns around private credit?

Absolutely. Are there still concerns

around liquidity? Absolutely. Are there

concerns about how crappily concentrated

the jobs gains were in the libtard zone?

Absolutely. Which is a problem because

you make too much fun of them and they

stop hiring.

We got no legs to stand on anymore. You

kind of need them right now. Uh and so

maybe that's why we're seeing a little

bit of a move back up on the 102 curve

back into shop shock territory around

53. But um yeah, that gives you a little

rundown of what the hell's going on in

the market today. And come on Q's, get

to 627.

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Pra there, financial analyst

[music] and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always

great to get your take.