Bitcoin JUST Fell 80% in 1 Minute | The Flash Crash.
FULL TRANSCRIPT
hey everyone me kevin here holy smokes
binance just had a flash crash in the
price of bitcoin all the way down to a
price of eight thousand two hundred
dollars you can't make this up right
here is the candlestick eight thousand
two hundred dollars is now the 24 hour
low for btc on the binance dot us
platform now it's very important to know
that binance us is the as you might
guess united states version of the
binance company
binance has an international trading
platform as well however the
international version's not available in
the united states thanks to different
regulations now
take a look at this eight thousand two
hundred dollars in a one-minute
candlestick that is an 87
drop
on a candle stick or wick that went all
the way down
why would this happen
well here's exactly why something like
this happens and what you can do to
prevent getting screwed in scenarios
like this and perhaps what you could do
to try to profit in scenarios like this
because some people are calling this
potentially a scam wick and there are
ways to prevent yourself from getting
scammed ways to protect yourself and
potentially take advantage of these
sorts of opportunities that come up okay
so
here's how this works
let's make an example
that you are
a bitcoin stock exchange you are the
exchange and so that is let's say you
have a house and your house is the
exchange uh see you got a nice little
window up here okay great uh over here
you have a table of buyers and over here
you have a table of sellers
and uh you're you're the the happy
middle person over here who's going to
help take the orders okay great and
you're wearing a scarf perfect
uh that doesn't look right so let's
let's go with something else you know
what whatever it's a scarf okay so
now let's say that usually
you have oh i don't know do we have a
volume here yeah we have a 24-hour
volume we've got volume right now
jumping around these are moving averages
okay so we got a 24-hour volume over
here at about 165 million usd but that
could be wide let's let's keep it simple
let's just say you have buyer volume
usually of five million dollars that
comes in and you have seller volume of
five million dollars that comes in well
usually these trades are going to get
placed around what the market price for
crypto is at any given time so plus or
minus 64 000 and depending on if at one
point maybe you have 5.2 million sellers
and 4.8 over here
binance can kind of even some of this
out to make sure that the spreads don't
go wild because see here you have a
seller in balance a seller in balance on
this exchange is usually going to lead
the price to go down but let's say the
price of bitcoin on the market is
actually 64 000 but you have the seller
imbalance the price on your platform
might actually look artificially lower
than what it should be so let's say the
actual market price for bitcoin in the
world is 64 000 but on your platform
it's 63 900
well this happens regularly especially
at exchanges with lower levels of
liquidity because they can't step in
they don't have enough cash to come in
and say hey no worries no worries i'll
make sure the price doesn't go below the
actual broader market price out here in
the world of 64 000 by coming in and
buying bitcoin by filling those orders
of the people who are selling so if this
extra you know four hundred thousand
dollars comes in finance could say no
problem we'll buy it at the market price
so that way when we get uh more actual
buyers who come in and want to buy
bitcoin at the actual price we could
just transfer it over to them well what
ha this happens regularly in exchanges
in fact it happens so much there are
actually uh hedge funds or institutions
potentially both
that uh play arbitrage like this like
they'll see oh look on binance bitcoin's
selling for 63 900 but on coinbase maybe
they have the opposite problem and it's
at 64 100. so they'll go buy here and
sell over here that's like making an
instant 200 profit now this is called
arbitrage because it's an inefficiency
in the marketplace they're essentially
taking something that's worth 64.
getting it for a discount and selling it
at a premium premium somewhere else this
is very commonly done by them doing this
they're actually creating more buyer
demand right they're bringing this back
to five
and uh the seller demand or maybe 5.2
and they're matching that 5.2 5.2 right
so arbitragers actually help create a
market they provide liquidity in fact if
you ever look at things like tether usd
you'll oftentimes see these things trade
in like uh you know increments of
pennies like a tenth or a hundredth of a
penny and that's because every time it
goes above a dollar people are selling
it every time it goes below a dollar
people are buying it and they're trying
to keep it at a dollar because it's
supposed to be a stable coin
so that works the same way
except in the early days like if you
look at the early days of tether for
example let's see if we can get a tether
chart here tether
let's go to here we'll go to coin market
cap look at tether if you go far back to
the early days of some of these coins or
you know what we'll go to the usd coin
because it's just conveniently right
here you'll see a lot more volatility
see this massive volatility oh wait you
can't there we go now you can see this
massive volatility you have over here
the reason you have these crazy ups and
these crazy downs like a flash crash is
because you don't have enough people
doing arbitrage to provide liquidity and
the exchange doesn't have enough money
to provide that liquidity to make that
or to minimize the need for arbitrage by
keeping the price stable which should be
at a dollar right stable coins and note
this range is really only like four
pennies here in either direction but
it's the same thing and the more
liquidity there is and the more stable
things become the less of this
volatility you get
the less likelihood of a crazy flash
crash you get so
why did we get this kind of flash crash
over here at binance well it's probably
because of something like this we'll go
back to this little chart right here
rather than a simple example like what i
just explained let's go extreme let's
say the market price for bitcoin is 64
000
and all of a sudden a whale comes in
here and says i'm selling a hundred
million dollars
and over here on the buy side they only
have five million dollars of buyers well
now what's going to happen is the
computers are going to automatically go
down what's known as an order book
and they're going to say okay we've got
somebody who wants to sell it a 100
million dollars worth of bitcoin let's
sell 5 million of it at 64.
uh then let's uh now we've blown all of
our buyers at that price right so to get
to the next pool of buyers let's find oh
look here we got five million dollars
worth of buyers who have set limit
orders for sixty thousand okay let's
sell five million to them and then you
basically you just keep going down the
order book uh uh you know at various
different prices essentially until
you've sold the person's entire 100
million dollar position now the only way
to prevent the price from flash crashing
is if the middle person in this case
finance us can come in and say whoa whoa
whoa this is this is where we need to
come in and prevent the price from flash
crashing
we'll post the hundred million dollars
and then we'll just slowly trickle it
out to buyers as they come in to make
sure our market price is similar in our
exchange prices similar to what the
broader market is doing
but if binance u.s
which according to a person familiar
with binance dot us
um
this is exactly what happened finance
u.s did not have enough liquidity to
facilitate that kind of sale
to prevent a flash crash and so what do
you get boom you get flash crash price
goes all the way down to 8 200 as the
order book gets extinguished basically
people bye bye bye bye bye
and the loser here is whoever the whale
is
who is setting this massive sell order
and anybody who has stop losses or set
up on their account or trailing stop
losses so a stop loss just to give you
an example of this might mean hey i've
made good money on bitcoin if bitcoin
ever falls below 60 000
sell my bitcoin so now and this is where
problems can actually get exacerbated
now you go down this order book and all
of a sudden let's say you get people who
set a bunch of stop losses at sixty
thousand so if bitcoin goes below sixty
thousand put in a market order to sell
let's say ten million dollars worth of
bitcoin so now you have even more cells
that you've gotta fill in that order
book this is why it's so important that
an exchange provider have proper or
enough liquidity to sort of prevent
situations like this from happening
otherwise like you see here you get a a
temporary collapse
which then obviously as the price falls
you get arbitragers who quickly buy high
frequency traders who quickly buy or
people who have low purchase limits set
get to go shopping so how do you protect
yourself in this kind of situation oops
well you protect yourself in a situation
like this ignore this little facebook
crypto thing here
you protect yourself in a situation like
this by being very very careful
with stop losses stop losses in my
opinion are something that you generally
don't want to have going all the time
especially on something as volatile as
crypto because of exactly this reason i
would rather try my best to pay
attention to crypto but it's tough
because sometimes crypto plummets in the
middle of the night so
this is where you have to ask yourself
do you want stop losses for a portion of
your portfolio sort of limiting your
potential exposure to these stop losses
they are rare
but if you set stop losses and you get a
flash crash you get screwed
the other thing that you can do is you
can set limit buys
the problem is most of us forget when we
have limit buy set so all of a sudden
you could start seeing something like
let's say crypto falls from 65 to 60 to
50 to 40 and you have a limit buy set at
50
50 000 but it's uh on a massive
downtrend it's gonna go down to 30. well
now you just bought it 50 and and you
could have bought it at 30 if you
manually did it right that's an extreme
example obviously but uh limit buys
can uh can be risky but in a flash crash
the way to protect yourself if there's
gonna be a flash crash is do not have
stop losses you don't want those this
you do not want but you do want
limit buys
so that way you're part of the order
book that's that gets executed so this
is good this is bad in a flash crash
but there are also downsides if the
market starts falling more broadly this
has pain
if there's no flash crash this the
stop-loss can help you minimize pain now
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really appreciate it thank you so much
for watching and folks
finance flash crash
exchange liquidity crisis hopefully now
you understand a little bit more by the
way binance does not use margin finance
us does not use margin so this was not a
liquidation jesse liquidations issue
all right folks thanks again bye
[Music]
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