holy sh*t - this is worse than thought

it's finally happening the greed of Wall

Street that we warned about is finally

utt turning folks there is a reason here

on March 26th I sent this very alert

right here to course members where I

said longer term trade I'm going short

arm $90 with an $87 option anybody who

held on to that option to today tripled

their investment in that option now some

people uh didn't play it that well I

didn't hold it all the way until today I

wish I did some people made money some

people lost money some people who held

it all the way they've tripled their

money some people took out the double

the whatever uh the point is this AI

transition is going to get a big smack

upside the head and it's basically

starting now and I want to show you

exactly why it's happening this right

here is nvidia's Q3 set of earnings this

is before they release their Q4 and

they're about to release q1 although you

got another 33 days to go before you

think Nvidia might come bail out the AI

plays I want you to understand how Wall

Street operates and you don't have to

understand all this Scribble here but

I'm going to do my best this is how Wall

Street operates Wall Street says okay we

are at $18 billion of revenue for Q3 for

NVIDIA we're going to assume that you're

going to come in with $20 billion of

revenue and that would represent about a

10.3% growth between those two quarters

and guess what Invidia did and this is

why Nvidia tends to do decently Nvidia

beat that number that number was beat

with a $22 billion read but wait a

second markets already anticipated that

they would beat the estimate yes that's

literally how stupid euphoric this stuff

gets look at this typically on historic

ratios you would want to beat by 15 to

19% they only beat the beat by 10% and

guess what happened the stock started

selling down let me try to show this to

you to show you how greedy Wall Street

is getting for a moment a little bit of

a different way okay so you say hey we

think we're going to grow

10% and then Wall Street

goes okay they say they're going to grow

10% so let's assume they're going to

grow another 10% on top of that so let's

assume they're going to grow

21% which that would be 10% more right

but then the company actually beats that

going from 18 to 20 they actually beat

that because they go to 22 which

basically is the extra 10% but Wall

Street is so greedy it's

like so you grew the way you said you

would got it then you beat like you

historically do got it is that it really

you're not going to give me

more sell the top is in that's legit how

greedy Wall Street is frankly this

morning in our stock market open live

stream first of all I'm like a short djt

and take some tendies at 30 $ 5 and a

lot of people did and made a lot of

money hope you made money as well I made

money on the trade as well remember I

send all my alerts to everybody in

stocks and site group expiring coupon

code tonight email us at staff ofme

kevin.com if you want to bundle up but

literally on the live stream this

morning we see this Bloomberg suit and

he's like you know we're expecting

earnings to beat by 5% and if earnings

don't beat by 5% we're going to sell

that's basically what he saying and I'm

like he is the epitome of the Wall

Street greed it's like it's the the

numbers are so good at these companies

the earnings there the the money Nvidia

is printing is so freaking insane it's

so good but solely because it is not

better than the streets expectation

which is already better than what the

company is

forecasting fell and so what do you have

today Nvidia down another five freaking

percent guess what a year ago in March

March April I made a video you could go

watch this video I made a public

analysis of Nvidia Nvidia stock meet

Kevin type that in to YouTube 10 months

ago I go Nvidia is a monopoly and in the

video Even though I I I you know it's

part of the titling on YouTube I titled

that the video Invidia $3,000 stock we

talked about basically how some people

have the expectations of it going to

3,000 I said I thought within the next

two years this is a $700 stock and I

would buy it at $480 I bought it at 480

increased my exposure a lot

I didn't play it perfectly nobody plays

perfectly okay but the point is it's not

an eight or 900 or ,000 stock not yet

especially when the growth rate this

year goes flat so I hate to say that

because I want to be all in like AI bull

this is the future but the future is

going to take a little bit more time to

arrive and so now the concern is what

happens when AI collapses do you want to

be buying the diple dud law of the uh

cues coming down a little bit well what

I would ask you if you're thinking about

buying the dip on the q's is that the

dip you want to buy we just got started

it's entirely possible well it's

probably we're going to go to 406 but I

think it's likely that we're going to go

to like 373 after we get through this

earning season so the question is when

do you buy the dip here's my opinion I'm

going to take uh a little bit of a chill

pill

here ah I mean

coffee so in my opinion here's when you

buy the

dip you need to get through earning

season you're probably better off just

playing spreads playing earnings so you

could assume that there will be a lot

more volatility than the market assumes

for earnings by puts by calls right one

wins one loses hopefully unless of

course you don't get volatility then

they both lose this is all part of

trading you don't have to trade but the

point is by doing that you might

actually hedge yourself from the fomo

because what everybody's concerned about

with buy the dip is well what if

runs well we'll have a bunch of cash

head yourself in both directions with an

option and then when it's time to

actually buy the dip you have the cash

to buy the dip so when is it time to buy

the dip a inflation rolls you need

inflation to roll and quite frankly even

when you get one inflation report that

comes in and says oh uh yeah we're at 0%

inflation guess what people aren't going

to believe it people are going to go

well one report doesn't make a trend

prove it to me with another report that

inflation isn't taking off again so it's

going to take 2 or 3 months of data to

actually confirm it's time to buy the

dip again with inflation and this needs

to happen before the FED drives us into

a recession with these high

rates and we really need to get through

probably one or two maybe even three

earning Seasons look at what Netflix

this morning did Netflix this morning is

like yo y'all we're going to remove

subscriber guidance cuz y'all don't need

to know how many people are using and

paying for Netflix y'all just need to

know how many engagements each user is

having that would be just like Tesla

saying hey um we're not going to report

delivery numbers anymore like how many

cars we sell we're just going to report

how many FSD miles people are

driving oh yeah that's exactly what

Tesla is doing and that's why the

stock's down like 25 bucks since I sold

it now I was supposed to Reby I was

supposed to Reby last week I put it on

my freaking calendar and I told

everybody in the stocks and sight group

you know we talk about this we talked

about this this morning in the course

member live I'm like I will tell you

when I Reby I will send the alert when I

Reby and I was I set the calendar I'm

like I'm going to Reby on 30 days I

wasn't expecting

this was not expecting this this is the

start of the

AI again I don't want to sound like the

bear but smci this morning Set It Off

why you know why I'll tell you why

because remember this right

here okay SM C usually comes out and

says hey our earnings call and our

earnings report is going to be on a

certain date in this case it's the 30th

and usually they go by the way we expect

it to beat massively today all they said

is our earnings call is coming out on

the 30th guess what happened to the

stock boom down 18% the lack of news

became news because the Wall Street

greed is getting flushed

out I've been going to cash for a reason

over the last 6 weeks because of this

stuff now the hard part obviously again

figuring out what like when to Reby

because obviously going to cash was the

right

move but that's the hard thing well

you've got some earnings coming up

obviously uh next week we're going to

have nid well Nvidia sorry nvidia's uh

in 33 days AMD is on the 30th but next

week 40% of S&P 500 earnings like actual

the volume of earnings occur uh and so

today we're just going to you know I

mean today we it's Friday you're not

really going to get anything you're

going to have a weekend to chill over

Netflix and chill if you want uh Tuesday

you'll get General Motors UPS General

Electric you know okay some of the cores

but then on Tuesday you're also going to

get Tesla Visa Nas Texas Instruments

Texas Instruments going to give you AI

Insight Tesla you think they're going to

give you oh look how many people are

signing up for FSD no because they're

all still on a freaking

trial of course Elon could say something

like hey we're not going to build a

model 2 we're going to build five

different model 2os and the stock goes

up 20% you know Elon could definitely

say something move that stock

substantially but in terms of the

broader space uh you know you'll have

Boeing next week uh you'll have 18t of

meta that'll be big for the AI hey have

you bought enough AI chips or are you

continuing to buy buy AI service now hey

are you actually making money off

selling AI services to people or

not we will get those answers in

earnings so really if you want to buy

the dip I suppose you can or just wait

until you actually get some data

and again you know I know some people

are like oh but by then you might miss

it there's it's it's so easy to buy

stock you just go in there Boop you

could buy so quickly there should be no

reason to think that uh that that you

would not have an opportunity to buy

stock I don't know folks I again I don't

want to be bearish but smci having a

Miss like that this morning and I I was

shorting those suckers earlier this week

I took some tendies on shorting C but

dang was I expecting to go down 20% in a

day they're not 20% now no but we did

send an alert to course members on smci

as

well so look my goal with my trade

alerts everybody in the stocks and site

group gets them is just to give you the

ideas ultimately you have to trade

yourself right like you could take ideas

you choose which ones to go on if you

want you go on different things or

whatever you take the inspiration on the

sector whatever and then you have to

decide when do you take profits when do

you set your stop losses whatever I I'm

not guaranteeing that you're going to

make money or that I make money on every

move that's not the guarantee at

all the point is to share perspective

with you and vision about what I think

is happening and you should take that

and sort of go yeah this this could get

worse before it gets better or you think

now is the bottom I would sincerely like

people though to comment and tell me why

you think now would be the

bottom they like the the pain is still

ahead of us with the earnings again

maybe maybe everything will beat but TSM

asml those are indicators that I you

know maybe you had your your AI spend

and the next orders aren't coming do you

think Elon Musk is going to burn even

more capex buying the next uh you know

GPU sets from Nvidia right now or is he

going to milk the h100 that he just

bought 10,000 of for his long as he can

probably that because we're running out

of free cash flow of Tesla in fact we

might go free cash flow negative which

would be a problem because then it's

going to wake people up to the idea of

oh my gosh this sucker uh like might

have to raise money Tesla okay in

addition to that I don't think his pay

package is going to get

approved I'm not saying that you should

vote against

it I'm just thinking that people are

publicly going to

say yeah we support Elon getting the pay

package he was

promised but other people are just going

to go look at the stock performance go f

you man

I I I don't own Tesla shares I'm not I'm

not eligible to vote I'm not voting I'm

not telling you how to vote and I'm not

trying to be Tesla bear here I'm just

saying the level of uncertainty that

will happen if that pay package doesn't

get approved will actually increase not

decrease uncertainty is so challenging

it's it's so hard because like I love

these companies I love Apple I love

Amazon I love Nvidia I love Tesla uh I

don't like

meta you know but but that's okay that's

the beauty is we get to make these

choices but the problem is

everything uh is is uh at potential risk

of Performing exceptionally poorly so I

guess if I were to give broad advice not

personalized Financial advice if I were

to give broad advice I'd say look if you

have needs in the short term like you're

not going to be able to make payroll you

should be in cash you know if you have

startups and you need to be there for

them don't speculate on the stock market

right now save your your business if

there's a

recession uh you know if if you are uh

an employee and you think there's a

chance you could get laid

off prepare for that don't get caught

blindsided where all of a sudden your

stock's down 50% and then you get fired

and then you're reamed

I don't know I'm

nervous um another

thing to keep in mind could just this is

just like housekeeping uh we have

decided to do our Road Show starting uh

next week Tuesday and I want to talk a

few more things about the market too but

quickly if you want to learn about

investing in house hack we are closing

the uh investment within about the next

two weeks it looks like tentatively uh

on Tuesday we will be at

Sacramento and probably San Jose

Wednesday Seattle

Spokane Thursday is

probably uh Vegas and

Arizona Friday the

26th is Texas so that'd be

like uh I think it is hold on hold on a

second here I think this is San Antonio

that is uh we're trying to figure that

out that's Friday oh no no no sorry

Friday the 26 is uh San Diego uh

probably like the Anaheim area and then

La the 27th Tampa

Orlando 28th probably Atlanta Boston New

York DC DC will probably be on the

29th uh and then looks like

Chicago then we've got Texas is on the

30th and otherwise so if you want to be

part of that make sure you sign up at

metkevin.com

Roadshow okay that's for house hack you

could learn about mini funds you could

learn about house hack if you're an

accredited investor bring your letter

your invest ready certificate all right

so what

else uh what this is very interesting I

just opened this up I was just going to

look at like what bonds are doing in

Gold I mean Gold's over 2400 oil's up a

little bit uh bonds are are only down

two basis points but this is very

interesting because this has actually

been my core concern here something

strange has been happening with jobless

numbers most of the past several weeks

have shown that firsttime claims for

unemployment claims haven't benefited or

haven't fluctuated at all as in zero a

string of weekly reports showing exactly

212,000 initial claims has raised a few

eyebrows on Wall Street the labor

department spokesperson noted that while

a string if 212 prints on jobless claims

is uncommon it can be attributed to

consistent jobs pictures related to the

seasonal adjustments uh-huh okay so in

other words people are like hey how are

these numbers statistically possible in

other words I think people are calling

BS on some of the numbers here the

numbers are made up one participant Ain

opine yeah remember folks we talked

about this yesterday when unemployment

claims hit Peak that's the time to buy

the dip we talked about that yesterday

we warned about today's movement in the

stock market following Netflix yesterday

literally warned about

it uh Netflix is down

88.5% we warned about this yesterday

so oh like I said I don't want to be

bearish because I worry I worry I worry

I worry so much I'll tell you why do I

worry people are like who cares like if

you're cash why do you care well first

of all because when people get fired I

feel really bad uh uh but in addition to

that we talked about this it was the

December of fomc

meetings this right

here house prices and the stock market

falling further could basically self-

fulfill a recession and push us into a

recession I think I I do not think this

time is different I think this time is

the same and I know I know maybe that's

shocking to people maybe that that's

literally shocking to

people it's kind of cool isn't

[Laughter]

it um probably going to get demonetized

for that oh

well still kind of

cool but

um yeah I I I I I don't know I nobody

knows that's the

problem that's the problem nobody knows

but this is this is just the start I'm

really worried about that and again I've

been screaming go cash for six weeks and

people would just get mad at me and like

oh you're just you're just saying that

cuz you're a bear and you don't want to

be

wrong no man go into a

recession it hurts it hurts everyone and

everything I don't care how short you

are like you're going to get hit

somewhere

anyway thanks for watching I just wish

everybody the best out there stay safe

seriously thank you for watching and

we'll see you in the next one I'm going

to make another k whatever bye

why not advertise these things that you

told us here I feel like nobody else

knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising in CR go

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your

take even though I'm a licensed

financial adviser licensed real estate

broker and becoming a stock broker this

video is not personalized advice for you

it is not tax legal or otherwise

personalized advice tailored to you this

video provides generalized perspective

information and commentary any third

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endorsed by me this video is not and

shall never be deemed reasonably

sufficient information for the purposes

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decision any links or promoted products

are either paid affiliations or products

or Services we may benefit from I also

personally operate an actively managed

ETF I may personally hold or otherwise

hold long or short positions in various

Securities potentially including those

mentioned in this video however I have

no relationship to any issuer other than

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market maker make sure if you're

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