An Election Warning for Tesla [Trump vs Harris].

hey everyone me Kevin here I think

they're going to be buying opportunities

for Tesla stock no matter who wins

Donald Trump or kamla Harris now you

might think that's crazy but let's first

start with why Donald Trump could

potentially hurt Tesla stock and the

longer term potential benefits we'll

start with the benefits Donald Trump is

likely just like he did during his last

Administration to seek to reduce

regulation and actually reduce

regulation right he'll actually do it

this is one of the reasons that in my

opinion you're seeing innovators like

Elon Musk wanting to push for a Donald

Trump it doesn't have to do with tax

credits elon's already made it clear he

doesn't think the tax credits matter and

that Tesla will make it despite the tax

credits I agree with that they'll

survive although there's a lot of profit

that'll be left on the table without him

but Elon as we know has made the bet on

an auton

future for Tesla and a future that gets

us to Mars via SpaceX now that's really

a different topic but I think that

Donald Trump is a symbol for Elon Musk

of freedom from regulation freedom from

potentially the FAA the FTC you know uh

anti anti- monopolistic Behavior we've

seen it with uh you know Mrs Khan all

the anti- Monopoly talk and uh uh

Partnerships that have just been uh

crushed under uh her Administration look

at for example Nvidia wanted to buy arm

you know which is now public and has

done extremely well after going public

uh but

anyway I think Elon sees that freedom as

an opportunity to get us into an

autonomous future faster now that might

come with risks people on one side of

the aisle say that hey regulation is

there for a reason to minimize the

potential death or you know injury that

could come from training autonomous

vehicles that are fully autonomous

without a driver whereas others say hey

more people die from driving cars

regularly over 40,000 a year so even if

some die training in autonomous vehicles

it would be significantly safer in the

long term than people driving cars

actually agree with that and so I think

because Elon Musk has told us he's

betting the future on autonomy Donald

Trump is really that path towards an

autonomous future on Nationwide scale

while you might get autonomy for Tesla's

uh Robo taxi vehicles in certain areas

kind of like how weo operates in Santa

Monica and Phoenix Arizona and some

other locations like San Francisco you

might see some of that with Tesla's

robotaxis as well whether it's Palo Alto

or Austin Texas or otherwise I think

Elon sees the path towards true scale as

one where you have wide opportunities to

deploy Robo taxis Nation wide and that's

why he really is gunning for an frankly

like a trump win here

now even if you do have a trump win

you're going to have some risks first

you're going to have the risks of

actually getting autonomy to the level

where you can truly scale autonomy as

quickly as Elon thinks and I think as

usual his estimates are a little

optimistic I do think the future is

fully autonomous and heavily based on

electric vehicles I'm a big fan long

term but I do think some of the more

recent expectations that full autonomy

could be here and present where we could

own our own Robo taxes as part of a robo

taxi Fleet by like the end of 2026 2027

is a little optimistic potentially too

optimistic especially since and this is

the downside of a trump Administration

you're going to lose a lot of electric

vehicle tax credits and Battery

manufacturing tax credits that a lot of

people just are not paying attention to

first of all they take Elon for his word

that hey you know tax credits are going

to hurt other EV manufacturers in

America more than they will hurt Tesla

and Tesla Will Survive well let's break

this down first of all yes I agree that

Tesla will survive I I'm not concerned

about that Tesla Will

Survive even if there are no tax credits

there's no doubt about that but this

idea that Tesla is actually really

competing with other electric vehicle

manufacturers in America I think is

nonsensical

we know Ford is basically losing money

because of their electric vehicle

business Ford and GM shrinking their EV

businesses really the companies that are

crushing it in electric vehicles are in

China look at byd with their hybrid and

fully battery electric vehicle models uh

and China is coming to the Americas for

now they're coming to South America

they're you know building up shop

basically in Mexico and uh Brazil and

eventually I think it's likely just like

what happened with the Japanese Auto

industry in the80s coming into America

where people are like what cheap and

quality what this is unbelievable I

think the same thing will happen with

China you people have this impression

well it's an old school impression now

but 10 years ago everybody's like oh

it's from China it's cheap and crap

today it's like oh it's from China it's

like okay well they're pretty good at

manufacturing like they've gotten really

good uh I mean look at you know the

iPhones that manufacturing try just as a

quick example uh and they're trying to

do that you know Apple's trying to do

this in India but they're having quality

issues so anyway uh they'll get there uh

but what's interesting is you know

Chinese manufacturers at some point the

protectionism will will fade and people

will demand those higher quality cheaper

Chinese vehicles and eventually we'll

probably all be driving Chinese vehicles

unless Tesla can really really stay

ahead of them which is possible they

might uh one of the ways they might is

under a trump Administration you get

more protectionism you're going to get

more tough on China more tariffs and I

think that's truly what Elon sees is he

sees the autonomous future under Trump

uh thanks to deregulation

but also protectionism against China he

sees them as the true evil and and

that's your real problem uh so now you

have to consider for a moment okay well

if that's what Elon is concerned with

then let's think for a moment what does

Harris do well Harris you probably have

less of that protectionism which means

the China China EV industry continue to

can continue to expand in South America

come closer to our border and eventually

to the United States which honestly is

going to be a good thing for consumers

so you have lower cost Vehicles even

Chinese made

tesas uh but

then the issue that you have with Trump

is you are going to end up in a

situation where oopsy dupsies I lose a

lot of tax credits now see the

autonomous future and unregulated

potentially or less regulated autonomous

future is still a future it is not a

present reality and much like Warren

Buffett says in Securities analysis we

should analyze companies based on what

they are doing today not what they are

doing in the future uh and that's

something that right now there's a lot

of hopium for the future Optimus going

to Mars autonomous but what we have

today are massive tax credits that are

extremely beneficial to Tesla today now

initially people only think about the

tax credits uh for well frankly the

$7,500 on vehicles and again people

think hey you know Elon says that's not

really going to affect Tesla it's going

to it's not just the $7,500 though there

are other tax credits let's analyze all

of them together so first you've got

$7,500 for the tax credit for actually

buying a car this makes it easier to buy

an electric vehicle because the consumer

well obviously is getting $7,500 off now

at the point of purchase rather than on

their tax return a year later or

incorporated into their lease payment

that's a really big deal that's a great

benefit this enables Tesla with really

the the opportunity to raise their

prices or not drop prices as much

because we know Tesla prices have been

plummeting they would be plummeting more

without these tax credits I'm highly

convinced of that but it's not just the

$7,500 for the consumer it's actually

also the regulatory credits the the the

zero uh the Zev credits the zero

emission vehicle credits that they get

for manufacturing cars Tesla generated

about

$1600 per vehicle sold in Q3 in Zev

credits that's over five times as much

as they did last year look here's a

Baron's article talking about it Tesla

generated 739 million in credit sales in

the third quarter that's beyond the

$7,500 for the actual vehicle that's

about $1,600 per vehicle up from $300 up

over $5 X from last year so now all of a

sudden it becomes more expensive for the

consumer to buy a Tesla if Donald Trump

removes these tax credits day one as he

says he will Elon says don't worry we'll

be fine we'll be able to take more

market share you already have the

American market share I mean short of

like vinfast or rivan or you know some

of the smaller volume companies you

already have the EV Market a lot of it

and Teslas are great don't get me wrong

I love my Model S yeah but it's not just

7500 it's the 1,600 and then on top of

that what do you potentially lose and

this is why potentially a haris

Administration could actually you know

have some benefits as well you have to

remember also the energy storage

incentives which this is disclosed in

their 10K but look at this Standalone

energy storage technology is eligible

for a tax credit of between 6 to

50% of qualified expenditures regardless

of the source of energy which may be

claimed uh by our customers or uh by us

with Arrangements where we own the

systems and basically lease them to the

clients so now you have to think to

yourself okay well what's the tax credit

for these batteries well it's about $30

$32 per megawatt or sorry per kilowatt

okay why does that matter well that

matters because a mega pack has like

3900 kilow time

$32 that's

$124,800 for each mega pack if a mega

Pack's going for millon million bucks

that's like an extra 12% that a customer

is able to pay because of these tax

credits or Tesla is able to collect so

one of the reasons you're getting this

explosion in battery sales where Tesla

is actually eating market share from

nphase who also sells batteries is

because of the tax

credits the cons you know a homeowner

can deduct like

30% uh of their battery purchase you

spend 5,000 bucks on a battery you're

getting 1,500 bucks as a tax credit and

now you're saving money monthly uh by by

reallocating when when you're actually

using your energy like tax credits are

really incentivizing the green industry

now that's not to say that that's not

inflationary it is right the inflation

reduction Act is inflationary up front

but long term as these manufacturing

facilities are built out over long term

and these credits fade over the long

term you know by 2032 a lot of these

phase out and then you end up with uh

you know uh more manufacturing for Mega

packs and home batteries and otherwise

all of a sudden you actually reduce the

cost of batteries that's the whole point

of the inflation reduction act long term

but in the short term you create

inflation with it it's just the way it

is because you got to build the

manufacturing build the infrastructure

out which is

inflationary so this actually gives you

some really serious benefits for Tesla

under a Harris Administration for

continuing to sell batteries and

existing cars so this is kind of where

you have to look at Tesla on two sides

are you making a bet on Tesla for the

easiest path to an auton

future then you probably want

Trump if you're looking at Tesla as the

easiest path to sell as many cars as

possible and as many batteries as

possible with the greatest profit

margins you're probably leaning towards

a Harris but that a Harris

Administration restricts your potential

autonomous valuation which is certainly

a premium that's sitting on Tesla right

now selling for over a three peg let me

update the valuation on Tesla right now

really quickly whereas with Trump you're

going to lose all these tax credits

which is a near-term hit you really hurt

Tesla in the near term it's going to

suck to lose those tax credits if they

actually get removed the way Donald

Trump says he will now it's possible

that you end up getting you

know Trump winning and then Elon

convinces him not to kill the credits

that's possible right uh but uh let's

see here but it's the opposite of what

Trump has said Tesla right now is

selling for let's see $241 EPS expected

that's $100 and we're probably looking

at about a growth rate of

28% yeah 100.4 divided by 28 you're

you're at a peg of 3.5 which is very

very high even for a software company

it's high so valuation rich and so you

potentially in the short term under

Harris at least maintain your credit

credits but you hurt that autonomous

future which could hurt the valuation

and under Trump you lose the credits

which hurts you in the near term which

also hurts the valuation because now

you're EPS goes down so I think in both

cases no matter who wins you actually

have some short-term pain for

Tesla in the long term though I wouldn't

bet against this company that's my take

thank you so much for watching I wish

you all the best out there good luck and

let me know what you think in the

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thanks for watching see you the next one

goodbye good luck why not advertise

these things that you told us here I

feel like nobody else knows about this

we'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes congratulations man you

have done so much people love you people

look up to you Kevin PA there financial

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great to get your take