Track THIS Market Shift

[Music]

hey everyone kevin here so i want to

give two updates that i thought were

really really incredible about this week

and going forward uh so one's gonna be

looking into the past a little bit one's

gonna be looking forward a little bit

yeah keep in mind though this video is

brought to you by extra and of course my

programs on building your wealth both

linked down below coupon code expires on

monday okay let's get into this so uh

the first thing is looking back so when

russia

invaded ukraine

that morning we saw some of the lowest

prices in the stock market and guess

what actually according to retail

tracking data and vandertrak guess what

actually spawned or spurned the market

to start going positive

retail trading retail trading

exploded in the first two hours of that

morning

and after that and the sort of uh next

kind of 70 of the day that's when the

institutions came in and started buying

so really interesting to know that

retail was the one who led

the reversal out of that bottom uh just

a couple days ago quite wild i thought

that was sort of a fun fact but i do

like talking about the future a lot more

so let's talk about the future so look

there are a lot of people right now

making videos about how uh or we're

gonna have all this substantially more

inflation because of increased commodity

prices and this is bad and look uh i've

but

my whole inflation world is well my

whole world i should say is surrounding

inflation because i study this every day

uh i've obviously

migrated from camp transitory over to

okay it's not that transitory

now because then we talked about this

yesterday video because of the russia

ukraine situation we know the fed's

likely to be a little more dovish be a

little more patient wait for more data

to see if aggregate demand moves down if

aggregate demand moves down then

inflation moves down but

more importantly for this video there's

a lot of talk about how

uh commodity prices increasing and

skyrocketing because of the incursion in

ukraine uh that we might see the

substantial increase in

inflation and that not only that but

maybe you should quickly flee and invest

in uh things like commodities

specifically we saw a wheat skyrocket

somewhere around uh 15 to 20 percent on

the day of the incursion natural gas in

europe spiked like 60 percent it was

insane

but something that's really interesting

is much like how the stock market

bottomed when commodities peaked uh all

of these commodities

have started turning almost have started

turning red

uh after the the incursion started

literally in the last two days we have

seen obviously we've already seen oil

prices come down remember we hit 105

dollars a barrel we were down to like

98.99 somewhere there now and quite

frankly frankly for brenton it's

probably going to go back under 95

uh if it isn't already right now uh and

uh we saw aluminum and nickel some of

these uh metals

specifically with exports tied to

ukraine skyrocket but all of them act

well with the exception of aluminum

aluminum's still staying a little strong

aluminum's are three percent but

otherwise uh you've got uh coffee corn

cotton soybeans sugar uh wheat all of

these coming down natural gas oil

commodities are actually falling again

in prices

and this is a good sign it's a good sign

that maybe we potentially hit peak

commodity fear which to some degree

commodities can serve as a safe haven uh

remember that when we have uncertainty

in markets people flee to safe haven

assets which would be things like bonds

treasury bonds uh precious metals like

gold and uh and of course

uh commodities often because when there

are disruptions people assume oh my gosh

well commodities are going to go to the

moon uh i mean obviously lumber's been

going to the moon like crazy but there's

actually a bigger thesis right now

around commodities that that trades over

that we've hit peak commodity fear and

combined with potentially a uh a more

dovish fed

maybe we hit a peak at commodities and

making bets on commodities right now

might not actually be the best thing to

do in fact this is why i'm making more

bets well first of all uh the morning of

the incursion i sold gold

literally at market open because i'm

like okay the the incursion's happening

this is likely gonna be peak fear sure

enough it was uh i took my profits on

gold seventy something thousand dollars

which i've

honestly never traded gold but i love

that and um of course i always talk to

horse members about this but uh but then

moved into those higher margin growth

style tech names with profit very very

important right now but there are a lot

of folks speculating on commodities and

i want to leave off with one more thing

the most important thing here is is to

keep in mind commodity booms tend to

come in massive cycles uh they come in

these super cycles where commodities

just go ridiculous and there's a lot of

enthusiasm especially around on lithium

and nickel cobalt you know the ones

related to electric vehicles especially

with gold prices going up people like oh

my gosh ev's going to the moon right

it's one of the reasons infants also

kind of went to the moon this last week

because you know when when oil prices go

high people like oh my gosh uh let's

let's get into renewables which makes

sense but i want to warn i think that's

short lived i think there's a better

opportunity not to go all in here okay

so yesterday i mentioned that i'm buying

stocks again some people like flip

flopping again you can't make up your

mind no no

i move with the data as the data changes

i make changes i'm only about 40 42

invested in the market right now the

rest cash and that's because i do

believe we have plenty of elements of

uncertainty coming especially around

what is the fed actually going to do i'm

leaning towards them now after this

incursion them going dovish and some

people think i'm crazy they're like why

would they go dovish they need a paul

volcker us look i i agree i think they

need to

somewhat at least like suitor paul uh

pseudo paul volcaros like give us some

shock at all give us a 50 basis point

hike raise rates to one percent come on

that's still ridiculously accommodated

but they won't do it because they have

this this thing now that they're

promising everyone that they're going to

communicate everything much more clearly

and and through this increased

communication they're trying to focus on

let's just do 25 basis point hikes over

and over and over again which is fine

they might do nine uh you know over the

next uh you know year and a bit here and

that might be priced in

but any kind of shock there'll be fear

of that shock but i think those are

going to be buying opportunities so i'm

marking my buying first of all i'm

staying away from commodities right now

uh you know cryptocurrencies are going

to trade just like tech stocks in my

opinion uh but you want to watch for

buying opportunities uh and fear around

the next cpi reports we get higher than

expected inflation which honestly i

believe everywhere everybody's raising

uh wages much more uh we just had a

logistics company somebody who worked at

a logistics company come to us and they

said uh yeah so we used to raise wages

uh and and therefore weight raised

prices uh every you know maybe six

months or something we'd make a little

adjustment now he's like now because so

many costs are increasing we're raising

prices every single week just to keep up

and you're seeing prices get raised

everywhere it's pretty ridiculous so the

inflation is real and i do think we're

under reporting it i just think we're

we're gonna have this fed now especially

because of the ukraine issue i think

that really puts a damper in and people

don't believe me on this but i really

believe that this puts a damper on the

fed being aggressive uh which was a very

real risk up until about well a week ago

uh and and so in my opinion that means

look for those opportunities to buy

under this 200-day moving averages keep

in mind the qqq we had a beautiful

bottom here double bottom uh we bottomed

out on january 24th and we bottomed out

again just a couple days ago but if you

look the s p 500 bottomed out around a

similar level slightly lower qqq has

been nothing but straight down so if

you're in tech or profitless tech

you know this last uh this last low was

lower

and there are still risks in 2022 where

we could go even lower so i i don't want

to say that's it you got to just flip

all in you know start pulling that

margin ah be careful i don't think you

lose being patient in this market be

careful speculating on commodities

people talking about how commodities are

going to create all this inflation and

stuff i i don't think they're looking at

the commodity charts because they're

they're all turning red already uh the

prices are coming straight down

yeah and i would not be surprised

actually this could happen too we could

see

a uh commodities crash

and this com a commodities crash

ironically do the opposite we get a big

commodities crash

what happens well now all of a sudden

the market's going to start pricing in

oh my gosh this means chips are going to

be cheaper evs are going to be cheaper

everything's going to be cheaper to make

go long on stocks you want to be ahead

of that curve so you want to see that

curve happening

watch commodities even if you don't

invest in commodities i'm not a

commodities expert as well but i'll tell

you

this cycle especially with pandemic and

war

my pandemic cycle was over uh you want

to be paying attention commodities all

right thanks so much for watching check

out the programs use that coupon code

expiring on monday evening and as always

check out my kevin.com extra and thank

you to our sponsor thanks folks bye