Bullish TRUMP News!

Hey everyone, me Kevin here. Wow, what a

weekend and what a weekend it was. Not

only do we have really positive market

moving news, but this morning we had our

first ever house hack earnings call

showing EBIT profitability, which for a

company that's been operating for 18

months is freaking phenomenal. A lot of

great things happening there. Visited my

mom for Mother's Day. Flew to Utah this

morning. Utah gorgeous. Although some

crazy crazy winds going into Heber.

Really gusty. don't love those sort of

crosswinds. That said, let's cover some

of the news that's going on. First of

all, we got a truce between Pakistan and

India over the weekend. Very positive

for two nuclear powers. Very good.

Apparently Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and the

United States were involved in

negotiations and sort of I mean trying

to calm the waters over there, although

I don't know that there's much water

between them, but but you know there

there were water trade issues and all

sorts of other things been trade deals

that India allows water to flow into

Pakistan so they can have hydro energy

and otherwise. So, I don't know. May

maybe they're, you know, the waters were

calmed. But anyway, beyond that,

obviously, some of the big major news

this weekend was positive potential news

on a Chinese trade deal. And apparently,

Donald Trump is getting a new plane. I

think Peter Schiff puts it in the

easiest manner when he says Trump will

get a $400 million Boeing 747. Damn,

bro. I actually just flew into San

Francisco uh parallel landing with a a

seven well a trip 7 heavy. Uh and you

don't want to get behind one of these

with a smaller jet cuz they're going to

blow you out of water with their wake

turbulence. It's crazy. And when I say

water, I mean air in this case. I'm I'm

not really good with the analogies

today. Uh but that said, uh Peter Schiff

says this plane is described as a flying

palace from the Qatar royal family and

it could be used as Air Force One. You

know, I wonder when someone in the

Middle East is like, "Hey, take this

plane gift, use it as the presidential

air force." I there's probably somebody

checking for some security. I mean, then

again, Boeing is is building it, so I'm

sure it's fine, but it's kind of

interesting. But anyway, after he leaves

office, ownership of the gift reverts to

the Trump library, which basically means

Trump can use it for his personal

purposes forever afterwards. And then

Peter Schiff says, "Stock brokers can't

accept gifts worth over $100. It is good

to be the king." No, Peter, you're

wrong. It is good to be a king with

immunity. That said, we got to talk

China, obviously. Bessent will be on

Squawkbox at uh between 4 to 5 a.m.

Pacific time. So, he's got a really

early slot on Squawkbox tomorrow

morning. I'm going to try to cover that

what whatever the heck he says as soon

as possible because obviously he was

involved in the talk. So, I kind of want

to see what he has to say. Uh but, uh

reporters are saying there's positive

there's there's basically news about a

positive deal coming from China. TBD on

timing, but it doesn't matter because in

their words, the reporters in China,

China and the US will on Monday issue a

joint statement reached at the two-day

trade talks in Geneva over the weekend

asked what will be the exact timing for

the release of the joint statement. Uh

the

Chinese, excuse me, international trade

negotiator and vice minister of commerce

replied with a Chinese saying that if

the dish is delicious, then the timing

is not a matter.

In other words, it's good news coming

and we'll let you know when we figure it

out. Uh, in fact, they even say no

matter when the statement is released,

it's going to be big news and good news

for the world. So, that sounds good,

right? Because that could prop up uh GDP

basically globally. Now, something to

consider about how this could

potentially work, uh, is if there's any

kind of pause of the tariff situation,

we could immediately import a lot of

hold over warehoused inventory, get

trucker truckers back to work. There's a

lot of inventory holding over in Canada,

for example, right now at hold over

warehouses where basically you ship

stuff from China into Canada, but you

don't bring it to the United States yet

because you don't want to pay the

tariffs that are 145%. So you wait for

the trade war to end and boom, you

import it right away. So that could mean

we could see all of a sudden a surge in

inventories at companies while also a

surge of new orders under any kind of

pause. You know, all that stuff is

actually really productive to

GDP. You know, whether there are

underlying pain points we still have to

address, we'll touch on in just a

moment. But so far, this all sounds

really good. Obviously, the pre-markets

are up over one and a half%. Treasury

yields on the 10 driving up to 4.4. So

you've kind of got like good for stock

market but bad for like people who have

a lot of uh you know variable interest

rate debt. Uh fortunately we don't have

any but uh something to think about is

you know corporate financing smaller

businesses you know those more credit

exposed uh that's obviously something

that puts pressure on them. But in terms

of larger cap stocks S&P 500 style

stocks usually less of an issue to see

these these yields go up. So, good for

sort of the broader larger cap

companies. Uh, we're also expecting to

get a 900 a.m. Eastern, so 6:00 a.m. A

lot happening in the early hours there,

California time. Uh, 6:00 a.m. uh,

executive order being signed. So,

expected to be like 6:30, you know,

right when the market opens on reducing

pharmaceutical prices by 30 to 80%. Now,

what's interesting about this is if

you're going to raise pharmaceutical

price or reduce pharmaceutical prices 30

to 80% and then say that they're going

to go up in the rest of the world, it

sort of implies that we're finally going

to get those sectoral tariffs. So, we're

still waiting on semiconductor and

pharmaceutical sectoral tariffs. Maybe

that's what we're going to get tomorrow

is, you know, good news on China while

at the same time announcing some pharma

tariffs. Obviously, most of the economy

cares more about what's going on with

China. uh this does potentially open us

up to importing cheaper goods from China

again which is good for inflation

because we import deflation from China

right China is not only facing deflation

but the more people order from China the

cheaper and cheaper things get now it

sort of does beg the question of was all

of this always just a negotiation or do

they want the actual revenue best case

scenario is this is all just a

negotiation like was anticipated during

Trump's campaign worst case scenario is

Donald Trump is obsessed with getting at

least some revenue when we only get a

reduction of tariffs in like half, you

know, or or whatever. We'll see. In my

opinion, markets right now with the Q's

and pre-market being up six, we probably

really need to get to like a 00 trade

deal for markets to really really rally

because what we've really done is

unpriced all of the liberation day

damage. But if we get a reduction in

tariffs to 25% plus 25 for, you know,

reciprocal tariffs or whatever, which is

a huge step down from 145, you still

have to deal with 50% tariffs, which is

still pretty expensive. It's still a big

number and it's still going to have a

shock. And sort of the longer term

impacts of what's going to come out of

all this, nobody really knows. But right

now, markets are very happy. Uh, and I

think the more we keep getting good news

like this, the better it is for

longerterm investors. And so this is

where I think those people looking for

like shaving a little bit off their

portfolio, as we've been saying over the

last 2 and 1 half to 3 weeks now, those

trailing stops have not triggered at

all. They've been straight up. So you've

really been winning all of this. Uh, of

course, we don't know what the real

shocks are going to be until May, June,

July. Now, if we can get a lot of trade

deals done, like maybe even news on

Canada or or you know, uh whatever the

other countries of the world, then

really what happens is let's say all the

tariffs are gone. All we have to price

into markets is the damage that was

caused in the economy during April and

the first part of May. I think most

companies will probably just kitchen

sink that in their earnings and go, "Oh,

yeah, you know, we uh we missed Q2

because of the tariff drama, but don't

worry, we're going to guide hider hire

in Q3." And so they'll kitchen sink some

more expenses in or, you know, whatever.

Uh the way they, you know, businesses

can sort of time certain things for

their earnings. So, uh wouldn't be

surprised to see that. And I think

markets will really try to look through

the shocks if we can get to 0. So best

case scenario is we really pause

tariffs, we lower tariffs substantially,

we even get the 10% sectoral tariffs or

sorry reciprocal tariffs off of

everybody. Best case scenario, but if

this trade deal with China is just, you

know, we're going to pause some of them

but not all of them, then maybe on the

shorter term, we might actually give up

some of this pricing that that we've

recovered since the beginning of April.

Who knows? Obviously, Wall Street

Journal says the talks were productive.

That's pretty much what every mainstream

news outlet says. So trade-wise, I'd say

watch for the details. And if the

details are meh, eh, okay, fine. Uh

maybe you don't go anywhere or you trade

down, right? I don't know that you go

puts in this sort of market. I like

those trailing stops like 10% on the

cues. Easy easy way to shave. But in my

opinion, if you get something like 0,

markets are probably just going to look

through April's damage. And uh this is

actually pretty optimistic. Now, will

the labor market hold up? Hey, we'll

know. Maybe we'll be able to confirm a

soft landing by August and that'll be

really exciting. Anyway, thank you so

very much for watching. I will be live

with course members tomorrow morning.

We'll probably do a pre-market open live

as well. Uh we'll see. Uh a little

exhausted from flying so much here

lately. And uh uh we'll see if we can do

a pre-market live nonetheless. And then

uh if you've got any questions about

Houseack, also feel free to email us at

iroushack.com.

We uh we answered a ton of questions on

our Q1 earnings call this morning and it

was a real pleasure uh to be there for

all of you. So, thanks so much for

watching and we'll see you next one.

Goodbye and good luck. Why not advertise

these things that you told us here? I

feel like nobody else knows about this.

We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes. Congratulations, man.

You have done so much. People love you.

People look up to you. Kevin Praath

there, financial analyst and YouTuber.

Meet Kevin. Always great to get your

take.