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The AI & Chip Boom: This Warning Starts NOW.

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0:00

We need to talk about Oracle, Nvidia,

0:03

Iron, Nebius, AMD, and Nvidia. And in

0:07

this video, we're going to have price

0:09

targets on some of these as well. But

0:11

here's what you got to understand. What

0:14

I've just mentioned are a list of three

0:17

buckets of companies. There are, and if

0:21

you don't understand the difference

0:22

between the three, you're going to learn

0:24

in this video. But if you think they're

0:25

all just AI chips and servers, you're

0:28

mistaken because you've got to

0:30

understand what drives the revenue at

0:32

these companies and the bottom line to

0:35

understand and evaluate them as separate

0:37

investments. Now, Chlorweave could

0:40

really be part of this discussion as

0:42

well along with Iran and Nebis. We've

0:44

personally been talking about Iran for

0:46

quite a while and it's been in our uh

0:49

meet Kevin channel here for a while now.

0:51

And look at this. It's been skyrocketing

0:54

even since we've been talking about it.

0:56

It just continues to go up. It's up

0:57

another 9% today. What's also very

1:00

interesting is just this morning before

1:03

the market opened in our beat Kevin

1:05

membership, we suggested that a great

1:07

trade today could be coreweave because

1:09

of the technical analysis we performed

1:11

in I I taught the analysis that I used

1:13

to make this determination. So, it's not

1:15

like I just throw a dart like I said

1:17

here's why I think it and I post it to

1:20

course members right here. And look at

1:22

this. I said it could go to 125 by the

1:24

end of September, but the technical

1:26

analysis is really bullish in the near

1:27

term here. And what happens? Literally

1:29

goes to 125 within an hour of the open.

1:33

Right to my line within 12 cents of it.

1:35

So, you want to be part of the Meet

1:36

Kevin membership, make sure you join

1:38

that. Go to meet Kevin.com. Get all the

1:41

uh alpha reports in the morning, our

1:43

trade setups, you get uh the top 10

1:45

stocks to buy for the next 10 years.

1:47

That's a big one. We've already

1:49

announced four of them. Six more coming

1:50

up. We do our analysis on them together

1:52

as well. Uh you get all the course

1:54

member live streams, all the course

1:55

content, the lectures. It could be a tax

1:57

write off for you buying the course and

1:58

the membership. So make sure to join

1:59

that. Use code bullish catalyst at

2:02

meet.com. So with that said, we've got

2:05

to break down the difference here

2:07

between Oracle and these other

2:08

companies. First of all, Oracle. So

2:10

Oracle is taking on massive amounts of

2:12

debt. They're taking on $ 38 billion of

2:15

debt for data centers this year. Now the

2:18

lenders are probably in the long term

2:20

going to be some bag holders here. JP

2:22

Morgan butc Financial although they

2:24

might end up dividing this up and you

2:26

know issuing bonds for this kind of

2:27

stuff. So who knows who's going to end

2:28

up holding the debt. But Oracle is

2:30

building a massive facility data center

2:32

not just in Shackleford County, Texas

2:35

and in Wisconsin but they're building

2:37

twice as many data centers as they

2:39

currently have. They currently have

2:42

about 34 data centers and they expect to

2:44

get to 71

2:47

data centers. This is insane. Oracle is

2:51

literally taking money anywhere they can

2:53

get it from issuing stock to borrowing

2:56

money to throw it into more data

2:59

centers. Now, Oracle's earnings actually

3:01

missed,

3:03

but their forecast was so bullish that

3:06

their stock today being up 38% at the

3:09

time of this recording has

3:12

just made its largest move since 1992,

3:15

the year that Kevin was born. '90s baby.

3:19

But anyway, that means this stock has

3:21

just generated roughly $300 billion.

3:25

Where do you think that $300 billion is

3:28

going to go? That $300 billion is in my

3:31

opinion, which is worth about three

3:32

Nikes, not three Nike shoes either,

3:35

three Nike companies. That $300 billion

3:37

is likely to turn into more share

3:40

issuance and likely to turn into more

3:43

capex spent. Now, could it all be a

3:46

bubble? Sure. But we got to talk about

3:48

where that money is going because it's

3:50

pretty exciting. Now, understand the

3:52

Oracle financials a little bit for a

3:54

moment. Oracle generates money by not

3:59

only producing data centers but then

4:02

licensing that data center space and

4:04

providing software related to it. It's

4:07

entirely unclear how much

4:10

actually comes directly from the server

4:13

stack and how much comes from the

4:15

licensing. They do give us a suggestion

4:18

that it's roughly 5050, but I actually

4:21

think that a lot of the licenses for

4:22

their software are just tied to their

4:25

infrastructure, which they call cloud

4:27

services, and they show it as a 50/50

4:29

split on their annual reports. Uh, but I

4:32

actually think the vast majority of

4:34

Oracle's revenue, which we know 86% of

4:37

it, factually 86% comes from cloud and

4:39

licenses, but I think the vast majority

4:41

of that 86% is basically just sort of an

4:43

ROI on them building data centers. Okay,

4:47

understand this for a moment. This is a

4:48

very different kind of business model

4:50

than just a pure play SAS business or

4:53

like an Nvidia business. Okay, so I want

4:55

you to think of this. Let's say it costs

4:59

you $100

5:01

to build an apple tree. Imagine you can

5:04

build an apple tree and it drops $10 a

5:07

year, assuming the apple tree doesn't

5:09

die like the AI bubble pops, right?

5:12

Okay. If it cost you $100 to build the

5:15

apple tree, you're like, "Well, I'm just

5:16

gonna keep building apple trees, that's

5:18

great, but it costs you a lot of money."

5:20

So, you take on debt and you build and

5:22

the revenue you're generating, that

5:24

increase in revenue you're getting is

5:26

coming from your capex expenses,

5:29

building the trees. So, really, the more

5:31

you spend, the more you make. Okay, this

5:34

makes sense. What happens when the

5:36

spending stops? Well, your revenue

5:39

growth slows. It's kind This is a

5:41

warning for Oracle. It's kind of like

5:43

with real estate. If you own zero rental

5:46

properties and this year you buy 10

5:50

rental properties or a 10-unit apartment

5:52

building, you're going to invest money

5:53

into that building and your rental

5:56

revenue will look like it just exploded

5:58

infinity%.

6:00

Because you went from zero rental

6:01

revenue to a lot, but that's really just

6:03

ROI on your capital investment. Like

6:06

building those apple trees or growing

6:08

the apple trees, whatever, right? That's

6:10

a very different kind of business model

6:12

than designing chips, which is what

6:16

Nvidia does. See, Nvidia doesn't make

6:19

anything. Nvidia doesn't have to spend

6:21

money on capital investments. Nvidia

6:25

spends money on people who design chips

6:28

and then Taiwan Semiconductor

6:30

manufactures the chips. So Nvidia

6:32

doesn't rely on

6:36

borrowing money from JP Morgan or

6:37

Mitubishi to go, you know, build the

6:39

trees or build more data centers to

6:41

increase their revenue. Nvidia just

6:43

relies on other companies like Oracle

6:46

doing just that. Taking that money and

6:49

then plowing it into Nvidia chip purpose

6:52

purchases. How do we know they're doing

6:54

that? Oh, well, the Financial Times

6:56

reported at the end of May that Oracle

6:58

to buy 40 billion of new chips for

7:01

OpenAI's new US data center. Okay. How

7:04

much money is Oracle expecting to spend

7:07

on capex in 25 and 2026?

7:10

Well, in 25 they're spending roughly

7:13

taking a quarter and annualizing it.

7:15

They're spending about $34 billion. They

7:17

expect to spend another $36 billion on

7:19

capex in 26. That means they're spending

7:21

$70 billion on capital expenditures.

7:23

That's just Oracle. That's how they're

7:25

getting their revenue increased by the

7:27

way, right? An ROI on these new data

7:29

centers they're standing up. Well, if

7:31

they're going to spend 40 billion on

7:33

Nvidia chips, 40 billion into 70 means

7:37

about 57% of all of their capex is going

7:41

straight into Nvidia chips, which is

7:44

crazy because it means you've only got

7:46

about 43% left for things like

7:49

buildings, server racks, super micro

7:51

computer racks, Dell racks, uh G uh

7:55

CPUs, like maybe AMD CPUs or or AMD

7:59

GPUs, whatever, The vast majority is

8:02

flowing to Nvidia here. Now, we'll talk

8:05

about AMD versus Nvidia in just a

8:07

moment, but it is possible that Oracle

8:10

is a play that benefits from data

8:12

centers in the long term, assuming the

8:15

trees don't die, assuming the AI bubble

8:17

doesn't die. But they're only growing

8:19

their revenue with these high

8:21

percentages right now because they're

8:22

borrowing money, blowing capex, and then

8:25

recognizing revenue on that. that

8:26

revenue growth isn't sustainable because

8:29

at some point they're not going to be

8:31

able to continue to generate those sort

8:33

of revenue gains and as long as you're

8:35

an investor who realize that great.

8:38

Nvidia is a different kind of business.

8:40

They don't spend money to make money.

8:42

They let other companies spend money and

8:44

then they make money. The downside of

8:46

Nvidia is they have to they have to earn

8:49

that money every quarter. when they say

8:51

or when they sell $40 billion of chips

8:53

in a quarter, they start the next

8:55

quarter at zero, right? They have to go

8:58

sell another $40 billion in chips. It's

9:00

kind of like Tesla when it sells cars.

9:01

You sell a thousand cars next quarter,

9:04

well, you got to sell another thousand

9:05

Cyber Trucks otherwise you're at zero,

9:07

right? So to grow from a,000 to 2,000 to

9:10

double, you have to go make the thousand

9:13

cars again and then get another

9:14

thousand, which is different from a

9:18

software business. And that's where you

9:20

have three buckets. A software business,

9:22

which Oracle has some of as well, just

9:25

like Microsoft and AWS do, is the gold

9:29

standard for making money. So, think

9:32

about think about it like this. There

9:34

are there are three buckets and there

9:35

are basically three standards. Okay? The

9:40

most expensive bucket well, let's put it

9:42

this way. the capex uh method that's

9:46

like you know Oracle building the trees

9:50

in my analogy here right uh data centers

9:53

right then you have the uh uh start at

9:58

zero method this is making chips cars

10:02

right and then you have the gold

10:04

standard SAS okay with SAS because you

10:09

have annual recurring revenue you

10:13

actually start at 100%. And you just

10:17

grow from there unless people are

10:20

cancelling. That's why SAS gets these

10:23

crazy valuations. So Oracle isn't mostly

10:27

in this pie. They're in the capex pie.

10:29

It's kind of like house hack with buying

10:32

houses, except we think houses will go

10:34

up over the very long term, whereas we

10:36

can't say that data centers will

10:38

continue to grow in value over the long

10:39

term. Just a little injection of

10:41

Houseack there for a moment. However,

10:43

Houseack is also getting into building.

10:48

You know, we're developing two ADUs

10:49

right now that are almost done. We're

10:51

going to be building probably 8 to 12

10:53

more over the next year. We're also

10:55

doing a spec build.

10:57

Starting at zero is sort of like

10:59

building homes as an analogy, right? Uh

11:03

the capex method is sort of like buying

11:05

homes. And then the SAS method, this is

11:10

kind of like the AI play, the AI SAS,

11:13

which is something Houseack's doing as

11:14

well. You know, we're running Blackwell

11:16

chips right now, training our ML so that

11:18

way we can launch our beta in Q4 and

11:20

hopefully license this in Q1, Q2,

11:22

because that's infinite. You know, when

11:24

people get into this and they're like,

11:25

"Oh my gosh, you helped me make 50 grand

11:27

and it cost me two grand to you. I could

11:30

pay you for 25 years and break even."

11:32

That's a great play. That's what we want

11:33

to do. It's sort of like the palunteer

11:35

but of real estate. We want to be the

11:36

palunteer of real estate. So the point

11:39

of this is to help you understand the

11:41

three different buckets. This isn't

11:42

supposed to be a pitch for house hack

11:43

just in case the SEC is listening. This

11:45

is not a solicitation. Read the private

11:47

placement memorandum. Read the offering

11:49

circular. I'm the CEO. I'm biased and

11:51

I'm using this company as an analogy to

11:53

help you understand Oracle and other

11:54

businesses. Okay. So AI SAS plays are

11:58

amazing because it's annual recurring

12:00

revenue. as long as you're not something

12:01

stupid like a chat GPT rapper in my

12:03

opinion because like I think those have

12:05

limited longevity like I don't know how

12:08

you're going to keep making money off of

12:09

that. We'll see. Uh and then you have

12:11

you know making chips which is what

12:13

Nvidia does and then you have the capex

12:14

method which is mostly the oracle though

12:16

Oracle does have some of the SAS play as

12:18

well and understanding those three

12:20

different businesses can help you

12:22

understand why companies get different

12:23

valuations. Right? So what's so

12:27

interesting about Oracle is most of

12:30

their business is renting out these data

12:31

centers and then throwing in the

12:33

software with it. The big winner in the

12:36

near term in my opinion massively is

12:39

going to be Nvidia. Yes, even over AMD.

12:44

Now why? Well, let's analyze that.

12:47

Everybody's worried about Nvidia not

12:50

being able to get from zero and selling

12:53

those chips again. But when Oracle is

12:56

saying, "We're going to double our data

12:57

centers," we probably still have another

12:59

two years in the pipeline of Nvidia

13:02

cranking these chips because companies

13:05

like, "Oh my gosh, I literally just now

13:09

got a headline, OpenAI and Oracle signed

13:11

$300 billion computing deal among the

13:14

biggest in history."

13:17

That's crazy that as I'm doing my Oracle

13:19

Nvidia video, uh, we get this wall. This

13:22

is a Wall Street. There it is. Wall

13:24

Street Journal breaking news. There it

13:26

is. Exclusive. Wow. All right. Open AAI

13:30

signed a contract to purchase $300

13:32

billion in computing power over five

13:34

years from Oracle. Dude, holy crap.

13:37

Divide that. Five years. $60 billion,

13:42

bro. $60 billion. This is why Oracle

13:45

wants to double their data centers

13:48

because now you know OpenAI the SAS

13:51

business is throwing money at them. So,

13:54

so think about this cycle here for a

13:55

moment. Open AAI right here is the SAS

13:58

business. It throws money at the capex

14:02

at the capex business, right? Open AAI

14:04

throws money at Oracle. And who is going

14:08

to recognize the biggest amount of money

14:10

from that right now?

14:13

Nvidia, it gives you years more years

14:17

more of run rate. Uh and and it it just

14:20

keeps the bubble going longer because

14:22

Oracle's over here taking on debt to

14:25

finance the continued expansion and then

14:28

it's a cycle right now. It all ends, you

14:32

know, when companies like OpenAI stop

14:33

signing contracts and then, you know,

14:35

Oracle has to issue shares and then the

14:37

share price goes down and then you can't

14:39

get any more debt and then all of a

14:41

sudden when OpenAI stops sending money

14:43

to Oracle, then Oracle is like, "All

14:45

right, we don't need to build any more

14:46

data centers." And then AI and then

14:48

Nvidia's starting at zero is going to

14:49

suck because you're going to have really

14:51

big negative growth. But deals like this

14:54

$300 billion deal just give you even

14:56

more run rate at these ship companies.

14:58

It's insane. It's hard not to be

15:00

bullish. Now, of course, you could go

15:02

into a recession and valuations could

15:04

collapse and everything. We're going to

15:05

talk about price uh uh price targets in

15:07

just a moment. I actually have a price

15:09

target of $240 on Nvidia. I'll show you

15:11

that in just a moment. But look at this.

15:13

Opening. I signed a contract to purchase

15:14

300 billion computing power over 5 years

15:17

uh from Oracle. People familiar with the

15:18

matter said the deal is one of the

15:20

largest ever signed, reflecting how

15:22

spending on AI data centers is hitting

15:24

new highs despite mounting concerns that

15:26

it's a bubble. It will require 4.5

15:29

gawatts of capacity roughly uh two

15:32

Hoover Dams. Oh, I did my flight

15:33

training over the Hoover Dam. Uh Oracle

15:36

share surging blah blah blah. Yeah, this

15:38

is just literally breaking news. Now, I

15:41

disagree with this. Oracle is the new

15:42

Nvidia for better or worse. I don't

15:44

think so. They're very different

15:46

business models. Again, you already know

15:48

this. It's the capex business model. I

15:50

think the only reason they're running

15:51

this headline is because of like their

15:53

euphoria around the stock right now, but

15:55

they're fundamentally different

15:56

businesses. So let's let me show you the

15:58

fundamentals. Okay. So you can by the

16:01

way get these screenshots. I think it's

16:04

uh it's useful to know this uh in the

16:07

Meet Kevin app. So uh I actually the

16:10

Meet Kevin app is optimized for iPhone

16:12

and uh Android.

16:15

You could get that at I think it's

16:18

meet.com/gapp.

16:20

meet.comapp

16:22

sends you to the Apple App Store. Yes,

16:24

it does. meet Kevin.com/app

16:26

sends you to the Apple App Store. Uh,

16:29

and then if you go meet Kevin.com/gapp,

16:34

that should send you to the Android app

16:36

store. Yes, it does. There you go. Sends

16:38

you to the Android app store. Please

16:40

leave me a fivestar review. But anyway,

16:42

if you uh go to the data tab that we

16:45

have in uh the Meet Kevin app, you can

16:49

actually see this data. So like here for

16:52

example, here is the Meet Kevin app. If

16:54

you don't like the green, that's okay.

16:56

You could change your color preference.

16:57

You just go to preferences and change

16:59

your color preference. I also recommend

17:01

that you change what you get

17:03

notifications on because if you want

17:05

notifications for Trump videos, great.

17:07

If you want videos on piloting or life

17:09

or whatever, you could choose that and

17:12

customize the notifications you want,

17:13

which which I think is is useful. But

17:16

beyond that, you could also go down here

17:18

and when you look at sort of like the

17:20

analysis, you could click on them and

17:22

expand and then you could see my sort of

17:24

highlighted notes on this, right? Uh

17:26

which is kind of cool. Uh I think that's

17:29

awesome. So, you know, something to to

17:32

check out. Uh meet meet Kevin app.

17:35

Again, that's meet Kevin uh.comapp or

17:39

meet Kevin.comgapp. Somebody in the chat

17:41

says 30 billion, not 300 billion. Well,

17:45

I don't know, man. Maybe you got to put

17:46

the glasses on. But this to me looks

17:48

like 300 billion.

17:52

And it looks like it says multiple times

17:54

here. It's also on my refinitive

17:56

terminal right here, uh, where I'm

17:58

getting the news wire.

18:00

So anyway, okay, let's talk about these

18:02

numbers. Okay, so we go to the iPad. Uh,

18:06

look at the numbers. Okay, this is this

18:08

is Nvidia. Okay, Nvidia has an insane

18:13

net margin. Nvidia brings 56.5

18:18

cents of every dollar they spend to the

18:20

bottom line. So, Houseac bought

18:23

Blackwell chips. We have We are running

18:25

Blackwell.

18:28

56.5 cents of every dollar we spent on

18:31

those chips

18:33

went to Nvidia's bottom line. That's

18:36

insane to think about how high that net

18:38

margin is. Now, I want you to compare

18:40

that for a moment to something like

18:43

Tesla. And this is not to be mean to

18:46

Tesla. It's just a it's just a fact.

18:49

It's a reality. Okay? Cuz I like Tesla a

18:51

lot. I love my Tesla. I've loved Tesla

18:52

since 2017 when I got my X. I love

18:55

riding my Black X. My Black X was the

18:58

best wide. The size was perfect, the

19:01

curves, it was beautiful.

19:04

But anyway, uh, now I got the Cybert

19:07

truck.

19:10

Okay, so

19:12

Tesla

19:14

has a net margin

19:17

of uh,549 divided by 22496.8%.

19:24

So Nvidia has roughly

19:28

uh 10x

19:30

a little less than roughly 10x Oh,

19:34

that's not the net income. The net net

19:36

income line is lower. Yeah, it's 10x.

19:37

Nvidia has 10x

19:40

the net profit margin of Tesla. So if

19:43

Tesla if Nvidia brings 55 cents for

19:45

every dollar they sell to the bottom

19:46

line, Tesla brings like 5 cents to the

19:49

bottom line. And Tesla is worth 1/4th of

19:53

Nvidia. So in put a different way,

19:56

Nvidia makes 10 times as much money per

19:58

dollar that they sell, but they're only

20:00

priced at 4x Tesla. That's an

20:04

interesting comparison, right? I think

20:06

that's very valuable to consider. Now,

20:08

something else to consider, uh, is that

20:11

you've got, uh, gross margins,

20:15

uh, and let's see here. through. Let me

20:19

go. Okay, let me go ahead and pull up

20:21

the sheets over here because it's going

20:23

to be a little easier for me to go

20:24

through these on the computer. So, if we

20:28

look at Nvidia's assets, Nvidia has $40

20:33

billion in debt, but they're probably

20:36

not paying that off because the rates

20:38

are probably pretty low on that because

20:40

they have $57 billion in cash in

20:42

marketables. If their debt was more

20:44

expensive, they would just pay off their

20:45

debt. They could literally pay off their

20:46

debt and have $17 billion sitting

20:48

around. On top of having $17 billion

20:51

sitting around, Nvidia is literally

20:54

paying $24 billion to repurchase stocks

20:58

in 6 months. That's what is that $12

21:01

billion of stock repurchases every 3

21:04

months, which is insane. They're immune

21:06

to the debt bubble, which you can't say

21:08

about Oracle, right? Oracle has debt. We

21:12

We'll go pull up their balance sheet uh

21:13

right now, actually. Oracle. Let's go

21:16

grab their last financial disclosure

21:20

and get their last quarterly results.

21:21

Let's go look at their debt just to be

21:24

able to compare. So Oracle, Oracle,

21:27

Oracle, here you go. So cash, Oracle's

21:30

got about 10 billion of cash, marketable

21:32

securities, about half, call it about 11

21:33

billion of cash. So we have 11 billion

21:36

of cash. We have debt that needs to be

21:41

paid of about $27 billion. I'm taking

21:45

out the deferred revenues. Okay. So, $27

21:47

billion of current debt that needs to be

21:50

paid. Look at this. This should scare

21:52

the beebas out of you. Longterm

21:56

debt, not deferred.

22:00

115 billion.

22:03

And they're literally going to borrow

22:05

another $ 38 billion of debt to go buy

22:08

Nvidia chips. Almost all almost a 100%

22:12

of $ 38 billion of debt is going into

22:14

Nvidia chips.

22:16

They're financing almost everything and

22:19

plowing it into Nvidia chips. So think

22:21

about it. Oracle holds the debt bag and

22:25

they've got that capex, that tree that

22:27

they're spending money on, but data

22:29

centers could lose value in the very

22:30

long term. Nvidia takes all of that debt

22:34

and turns it into cash flow today. Not

22:39

only do they turn it into cash flow

22:41

today, but then they turn around and and

22:44

buy back stock, pushing up the stock

22:47

value of Nvidia. Now, what does Oracle

22:50

do? Well, Oracle issues stock. Oracle is

22:55

literally issuing in the la in the last

22:57

quarter $1.7 billion of stock and

23:00

they're taking on more debt. So they're

23:02

taking on even more debt. They already

23:04

owe over hundred billion dollars of debt

23:05

and they're issuing stock. Nvidia has

23:09

essentially no debt relative to the cash

23:11

remarkables they have as I've shown you

23:13

with the numbers and they're buying back

23:15

stock at an insane level. So when you

23:18

compare Oracle and Nvidia, no, no,

23:21

Oracle is not the next Nvidia. Ifia

23:25

benefits immediately off all the

23:27

spending that Oracle does, has no debt

23:30

problem at all and is buying back stock

23:33

for days. Oracle is a debt bag holder

23:37

and that's what you have to be careful

23:38

about with Coreweave as well. Now

23:40

remember what oh uh remember the uh this

23:44

market's slipping a little bit right

23:46

now. Remember what I said this morning

23:48

and I told you about this, you know,

23:50

that we not only in the course member

23:52

alpha report over here, but this is when

23:53

the PPI came out in our course member

23:55

live stream this morning. I said, "Guys,

23:57

we're like we're at all-time highs in

23:59

pre-market. This is way too euphoric

24:01

going into CPI tomorrow. Don't get

24:04

caught on this. I don't think today is

24:06

an upside day for the Q's." And I was

24:09

right. We bled off on the Q's chloreted,

24:13

which was our other call. We made two

24:14

calls today. Q's down, core weave up.

24:17

Both of them nailed it. And you got to

24:18

be a part of that. You join the Me Kevin

24:20

membership, you get lifetime access. You

24:22

want it in five years, you want it in

24:24

two months, whatever. But the price goes

24:26

up over time. Use coupon code bullish

24:28

catalyst before we raise the price

24:29

again. That coupon expires soon. I

24:31

slightly extended it because I thought

24:32

we'd get some bullish catalyst this week

24:34

and BBI was actually really bullish.

24:36

That was a good bullish catalyst. Uh we

24:38

love those bullish catalysts.

24:40

>> Bullish catalyst.

24:42

Uh but anyway,

24:44

now

24:47

you you could start understanding a

24:48

little bit of the difference between

24:50

Nvidia and Tesla for example. Uh but you

24:54

could also understand a little bit of

24:55

the difference between Nvidia then and

24:57

AMD. AMD is a bit of uh you know, no

25:02

offense to stepchildren, but it's a bit

25:03

of the stepchild of Nvidia. Uh it's just

25:06

the less favored. They do not have

25:08

enough cash to pay their debts. They

25:11

have about, you know, sixish billion

25:13

dollars in cash, not counting

25:15

receivables, and they have current

25:16

liabilities of 9.8. Nvidia has plenty of

25:19

cash and short-term investments to cover

25:21

their current liabilities and then have

25:23

an extra 17 billion sitting around.

25:25

Actually, I think they can pay off all

25:27

of their debt. Let me look at that again

25:28

really quickly. Uh, I always just like

25:30

looking at the numbers because if you

25:31

look at the numbers, you don't have to

25:33

remember.

25:34

Uh, here assets. Yeah, I've got

25:36

marketables and cash of 56. I've got

25:40

current liabilities

25:42

of uh 40 bill. I'm sorry, total

25:46

liabilities of 40 bill total. They can

25:48

pay off all their debts. Uh and then uh

25:51

AMD actually has some long-term debts as

25:53

well. So, we don't have enough cash to

25:54

pay off uh our debts. And then when we

25:57

actually look at the cash flow statement

25:58

at AMD, and I'm not trying to poop on

26:00

AMD. AMD has a lot of the benefits that

26:02

AMD does as well. It's just it's just a

26:03

stepchild. Uh if you look at their cash

26:06

flows, they actually they do reby stock,

26:10

but they're issuing debt. They net

26:12

issued $1.5 billion of debt. Now, they

26:15

use that to reby their stock, but

26:17

they're issuing debt to buy back the

26:19

stock. Nvidia just makes so much damn

26:20

money, they don't have to issue debt.

26:22

They can buy back their stock and not

26:24

buy borrow. It's crazy. Nvidia has about

26:28

16 times the free cash flow of AMD. And

26:31

the stock market value of AMD is about

26:33

16.5 times that of AMD, which suggests

26:35

that they're kind of tethered, right?

26:38

They can kind of move together in

26:40

valuation uh because of that difference

26:42

in cash flow. Now, when it comes to

26:44

price targets for these, I think this is

26:46

this is a worthy conversation here. So,

26:50

uh the price targets, what I've done is

26:52

I've done my usual PEG analysis, which

26:55

is a price toearnings growth analysis uh

26:58

of these different companies. We take

27:00

what Wall Street assumes and then we

27:02

also make sort of kneecap adjustments to

27:04

these. And my take is the following. My

27:08

take is that right now Nvidia is trading

27:10

for a um a a PEG ratio of about 1.94 and

27:15

I think a fair PEG ratio for them would

27:17

be about 2.67.

27:19

At 2.67, mind you, Palanteer selling for

27:22

like a six, you know, Tesla selling for

27:24

like a five. At a 2.67, Nvidia is a $240

27:28

stock.

27:29

So really nice upside on top of where we

27:32

are on Nvidia. Obviously hashtag no

27:35

guarantees, but you're trading for 176

27:36

right now. You know, it's up like 3 to

27:38

4% on the day. AMD, I took the Wall

27:42

Street estimates and I adjusted down

27:44

their growth. That's my opinion. You

27:47

don't have to adjust down their growth.

27:48

Wall Street says their growth is going

27:50

to be 27% on earnings per share. I think

27:51

it's going to be closer to 20%.

27:54

With my adjusted down growth, I still

27:56

have a price target for AMD of $211.

27:59

Rounding a little bit, $211. That's

28:02

better than where they sit today. They

28:04

sit at 159 today. So, I'm bullish AMD

28:07

and Nvidia here.

28:10

Okay. Understanding that uh Nvidia or uh

28:14

Nvidia is trading for 176. 240 divided

28:18

by 176 puts me at a 36% upside. AMD at

28:22

211 divided by 155 puts me at a 36%

28:25

upside. See how they're tethered? Kind

28:27

of interesting. That's actually really

28:30

interesting because those are based off

28:31

the Kevin valuations. Anyway, Oracle,

28:35

according to Wall Street, could have a

28:38

$461 price target.

28:41

That's based on using my peg analysis or

28:44

Oracle. Okay. 461 divided by 22 or 323.

28:48

461 divided by 323. That's about a 42%

28:52

upside, but I don't like it. It's too

28:55

much debt and it's too capital intensive

28:59

in an asset that I don't have as much

29:01

faith in. Like I have more faith that

29:03

housing will continue to go up in value

29:04

over time. I don't know if I can say

29:06

that for data centers forever. I can say

29:07

that for data centers for the next two

29:09

years, but can I say it forever? I don't

29:10

think so.

29:12

At some point, they'll be a commodity

29:13

and they'll lose money. You know, you'll

29:16

have lower utilization or whatever.

29:19

That means with Oracle,

29:22

I personally have a personal price

29:25

target where I don't I'm not saying it's

29:26

going to go to this, but I don't want to

29:28

buy Oracle unless it's trading for under

29:29

$175.

29:31

That is like having where it is today,

29:34

but I wasn't interested in it yesterday

29:36

and I know it's going up today, but I'm

29:38

not interested in it today. Though, if

29:40

you're wondering, you know, in the Meet

29:41

Kevin membership, is Oracle part of the

29:44

top 10 stocks Kevin's buying for the

29:46

next 10 years?

29:48

The answer is a hard no.

29:52

It is not. Spoiler. There's not. The

29:55

stocks that are in me Kevin's top 10

29:57

stocks to buy for the next 10 years.

29:58

Right now, one of them is up today 8.3%.

30:02

Another one's up about 1%. Another one's

30:05

up about 1 and a.5%. And then where's my

30:07

last one?

30:09

My last one is up about 2%. All of them

30:12

are green right now, even though the

30:14

market's turning red. skull. Uh anyway,

30:18

this hopefully gives you a bit of an

30:20

understanding where likeweave

30:22

oracle like to me you have to you can

30:25

lump these together. So let's go back to

30:27

that sheet right here and you can lump

30:30

these the capex heavy ones right here.

30:33

This is going to be your Oracle, your

30:36

Iron, your NBIS, your core. No, Oracle

30:41

probably makes more of software than the

30:45

others, but even Coreweave

30:48

uh pitches its software for managing the

30:52

uh data usage uh people license from

30:55

them. All right.

30:57

Uh

30:59

Nvidia Nvidia

31:03

is obviously a stronger and has bigger

31:06

BP,

31:08

but both have uh 36% upside from here uh

31:14

to a fair value. You know, that's not to

31:17

overvalued. Uh even more if they go to

31:21

overvalued, right? Uh, and then as far

31:24

as the SAS side, you know, the SAS side,

31:26

that's where you have to be careful

31:27

because it's so played out already, so

31:30

rich already. Like, you know, Palanteer

31:32

is your perfect SAS example, right? Snow

31:35

has a better valuation, but there are

31:38

other SAS plays that could do well in a

31:40

recession as well. One of our top pen

31:43

stocks to buy over the next four years

31:45

is a SAS. Well, it's SAS and hardware.

31:48

Uh but but the hardware leads to the

31:51

SAS. Really shocking business. People

31:54

who know will know what I just said. And

31:56

anyway, um

32:00

there are opportunities here. You just

32:02

have to be careful because so many of

32:04

them are so rich and and I think there's

32:06

a risk of real valuation compression in

32:08

a recession for some of these. Uh I love

32:11

the SAS business model. That's that's

32:13

what like when it comes to SAS for me

32:15

most of the SAS that I want to hear

32:17

about is what can we pull off with house

32:18

hack because I personally like I want to

32:21

put more more of my own personal money

32:23

into house hack even this year because I

32:25

look at it as like we're buying house

32:27

hack shares at you know a buck 40 per

32:30

share which is basically just the value

32:32

of the homes and like a low multiple on

32:35

top of what you know a real estate

32:38

holding company trades for which they

32:39

usually trade for 2x uh book. This is

32:43

probably trading, you know, at, you

32:44

know, 145x book, which I think is a

32:46

discount. And then that's why I say

32:48

there's really no valuation premium for

32:50

the AI that we're building out. And so I

32:52

feel like, man, if I'm going to get into

32:54

SAS, I'd rather go buy house act. No,

32:57

there's risk obviously because what if

32:58

we suck, right? But I'd rather like

33:01

because of what I'm seeing, I'd rather

33:03

put money into that than than you know a

33:05

sass at a a six or seven peg that I

33:08

don't think will do well in a recession.

33:10

Yeah, that's where my head is on all

33:12

this. Uh, so,

33:15

okay, I just got a notification that

33:19

Blue Owl is in a uh secondary offering

33:23

for another $2.7 billion of money. Now,

33:26

why does Blue Owl matter? You might not

33:29

even know what Blue Owl is. know what

33:31

Blue Owl is either. Um, Blue Owl uh is a

33:36

is a company that is financing the AI

33:40

data center expansion for Meta. So, $29

33:44

billion of debt going to Meta. Blue Owl

33:47

Capital and uh Pacific Investment

33:48

Management, they've been involved with

33:50

that. UBS is warning about an asset

33:52

bubble fueled by debt. But this is why

33:55

like I recognize it could all be a

33:56

bubble, but realize the bubble is coming

34:01

from debt that companies like Coreweave

34:04

and Oracle are holding and they're

34:06

squeezing that debt and what's coming

34:08

out is cash. And Jensen Jensen, where's

34:12

my jacket? Where's my my members only

34:13

jacket? Basically, think about it like

34:15

this. Here's here are the debt people.

34:18

The debt people are are ringing a sponge

34:20

up here of debt. And then Oracle's like

34:24

got a bucket capturing all the debt. And

34:27

then the debt is overflowing. It's

34:29

bubbling over. Like all that money is

34:32

coming out and it's just pure profit

34:34

basically that's coming out. And you

34:36

just have Jensen over here going shower

34:40

shower me shower me in in all this cash.

34:44

Like he's liable for zero of the debt.

34:47

He doesn't even make the damn chips.

34:50

Taiwan Semi does. He just collects the

34:53

money. It tells you it's the greatest

34:58

largest PP business model ever. And as

35:02

long as the debt keeps flowing, man, the

35:05

dollars keep coming to your boys over at

35:08

Nvidia and hopefully to your stepbrother

35:11

AMD.

35:12

>> Why not advertise these things that you

35:14

told us here? I feel like nobody else

35:15

knows about this.

35:16

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

35:17

see how it goes.

35:18

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

35:20

much. People love you. People look up to

35:21

you.

35:22

>> Kevin Pafra there, financial analyst and

35:24

YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to

35:26

get your take.

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