The Stock Skyrocket: Now Prepare for What's Next.

this is a huge moment for Donald Trump

the Republican party and frankly

household net worth hey everyone me

Kevin here we got to pay attention to

what's going on in markets because

Donald Trump on Friday and we covered

this in a live stream already but I'll

give you a recap paired back a little

bit of his Liberation day aggressiveness

and talked about how certain

corporations and countries would be

Exempted from tariffs that the targeted

tariffs on sectors like the chip sector

might get delayed and that really we'd

only be targeting reciprocal tariffs on

fat tariffs and uh specific countries

that we have trade deficits with it's

unclear what kind of reciprocal tariffs

and then reciprocal on top of reciprocal

tariffs we're going to get with Trump's

reaction but take a look at this chart

this shows you how important right now

the stock market's movement is to every

single household in America according to

Goldman Sachs investor allocation to

equities is currently at an all-time

high investors allocate more than half

of their financial assets to equities

and if you look at history here we've

actually now surpassed the peak of the

2002 2011.com bubble in terms of

allocations to equity that's because

it's been relatively easy to make money

in the stock market with no effort over

the last well FR frankly about 15 years

coming out of the great financial crisis

it's basically been straight up and so

has investor allocation and household

allocation while at the same time

exposure to bonds or cash has been

substantially lower now why this is

really important for the Trump and not

just the economy and households but is

what's going on in the election space

and then of course people's Impressions

about what's going on with the Atlanta

fed quickly on Atlanta fed we already

expect this to Skyrocket so I want to be

very clear this Atlanta forecast should

Skyrocket soon one of the reasons that

it's so low is because of the gold uh

trade adjustments the Imports of gold

that we had and they actually a whole

breakdown on this that basically it

should have never gone this low on the

forecast for q1 GDP and maybe it should

have been around 04 so you should expect

to see a big move up to about 04 right

here we already expect that but in

addition to that the latest surveys that

we got this morning which we'll cover in

just a moment should also prop up our

GDP again this is especially important

for Donald Trump and the Republican

party I'm just going to use an example

here if you look at Florida's 6th

congressional district they're about to

hold an election on April 1st it's kind

of a weird date April Fool's Day but

they got a special election happening

here and Jake Sherman who's pretty

respected on the hill argues that and I

like him a lot I think he's pretty

levelheaded he argues that there's this

interesting raise disparity that's

happening between Democrats and

Republicans and obviously like who

really cares about Florida 6th well it's

not so much that you might care about

Florida 6th it's that there's a shift

happening between fundraising for

Democrats Democrats in some extent are a

little bit more motivated right now to

take Donald Trump's power away in

2026 and this might be why you've got

10x the raising for a democrat in

Florida versus the Republican and this

is typically seen as a secure Republican

seat you know Donald this is weirdly

written over here but basically what

Jake's trying to say is Donald Trump and

Republicans wanted an Alli line in the

2024 election uh and the fact that right

now I think he meant to say uh uh you

know um what's it called This is a

district um JD Vance and Trump one by 30

not walles but whatever uh anyway this

is a district that that should be easy

uh for Republicans to win and and it's

been very very red for a very long time

I think the last time you've seen a

movement over here was back in like 20

um uh 2012 to to the liberal side and so

the point of this is could this have a

broader implication on elections in 26

and the answer is maybe it's an early

signal yes because it's a response to

some of the trade drama that we've seen

now one way that Donald Trump can undo

some of this drama is by doing exactly

what he's doing pairing back some of

this tariff uncertainty now it remains

to be seen what ends up happening with

broader risks to the economy remember

we're still in a price cut cycle Goods

companies like Costco Restoration

Hardware Tesla car companies uh

compression coming the chip Market you

know a lot of disinflation coming which

is good for lower prices for you but the

survey data that we're getting this

morning is suggesting hey you know if we

can get rid of some of this this tariff

pain maybe that's not bad that means

lower prices for you not only does it

mean lower prices for you but it

potentially also means we could finally

go back to growth on some of the survey

data that we've been seeing uh in fact

surveys this morning such as the uh SNP

uh you know flash pmis they were

actually good in the sense that Services

bounced back to expansion uh from this

dip that we had there in February where

they were talking about Services

activity stagnating now they're just

blaming the weather so these noisy

signals so far in the Soft Data maybe

aren't actually rolling over to the hard

data which is good for people like

Powell as well it's also good for Trump

and Republicans because if the economy

holds up then the stock market can hold

up and you can kind of continue to see

that strength for republicans in keeping

stability and financial markets

obviously when markets are down just

like they are from the beginning of the

year to now it's probably going to lead

to Democrats getting an edge in

elections you can somewhat unwind this

not only by unwinding some of this

tariff threat and hopefully getting back

towards free trade or going to free

trade through this negotiation right I

mean think about it other countries have

had taxes on us and if we can utilize

this sort of turmoil to get rid of some

of these taxes or tariffs against us hey

fantastic then what we're actually doing

is we're not only going back to our POV

being free trade but other countries

getting looped back to free trade which

is great some form of you know NAFTA 3.0

if you will you know NAFTA 1 usmca and

then maybe NAFTA 3.0 except it's like

gafta I don't know Global Free Trade

Agreement or something so this is a good

thing but the data the morning of the uh

flash pmis wasn't just the flash pmis

that was good it was also what we saw in

Chicago National activity index both of

these bullish both of these took me on a

bull bear scale from about you know two

and a half on the more bearish side to

about 3.2 you know that's just sort of

my little barometer for letting you kind

of know where my head is although on

Friday you know we were talking hey you

know this this is a good move this could

support a temporary bounce and it's

exactly what we're seeing uh in fact if

you look at some of the sticks that

we've been watching which you know we

talk trade alerts all the time or sort

of what's going on uh in markets in our

course live streams which you could

always join with the meetkevin

membership over at meetkevin.com it's a

bargain of a price but I want you to see

some of the sticks that I'm watching and

some of the movement that we've seen in

markets because it's been pretty dang

spoton so far today there are some risks

though and I want to show you where to

watch for those risks yes Chicago

manufacturing good yes we've got durable

goods coming out on Wednesday that could

be a little heartache for folks but what

I'd be watching right now are some of

the movements that we've seen here first

of all look at Tesla Tesla was gated by

250 for quite a while gapped up to our

258 line now we're a bit in No Man's

Land There is a risk of a reversion to

260 here otherwise 295 is the next stop

Q's I'm looking for about 29 uh 494 nice

Gap up this morning off the 47 you know9

level great Gap up but we've got to

break that 494 to really get this

consistent uptrend going now what are

the potential risks going forward all

right there are a few of them first of

all we still face risks of a slowing job

market and also what I call a fading of

rallies this is something we've seen

time and time again now in part it's

been because we've seen more aggressive

tariff volatility from Trump but

remember what we want we want tariffs to

be removed and then we want our tax cuts

and then we want more than just the tax

renewal of last time which to some

extent we would have right no tax on

tips that's a new stimulus no tax on

overtime that's a new stimulus no tax on

social security that's a new stimulus

most Social Security money is basically

100% spent on you know Services goods

and services anyway so why not this is

fantastic those are stimulative tax cuts

and they would help the economy and

support the economy avoid a recession

and avoid the problems of a slowing jobs

market and a reduction and growth this

is what we're seeing at companies this

what we're seeing at earnings calls and

all this tariff drama is just bad you're

you're adding fuel to an existing fire

we want to put this fire out but

anyway the the margin compression cycle

could still happen and we're almost

certainly going to continue to see it

here what I'd like to pay attention to

though with this allocation to stock

markets that we're seeing from

households especially is are we going to

fade this rally because there are great

companies with great valuations out

there you could see a free uh valuation

that I did on a company last night uh in

a private live stream that I did if you

look at the video you could see the

company that I'm talking about if you

look at the video that I posted last

night uh about uh I'll read you the

title here in just a second it is the

stock market correction may be over

right that was the video we did last

night that followed the video that we

did on Friday where we said Trump flips

on tariffs by calls oh wow surprise

Market's up today but anyway the stock

market correction may be if you click on

that video at the top you'll see a link

to a private live stream I did you're

welcome to check that out I talk about a

lot of different things but I talk about

a company that's up like 7% today and I

talk about how great the valuation is

right now and how if there's no re how

I'd like to buy it cheaper but if

there's no recession could be a really

good deal because it's trading at a

great position right now and I think the

company's doing great things so you

could see that live stream for free it's

it's um in the description of that video

but anyway uh what we want to watch for

now is is this rally going to continue

to be bought or are people going to fade

this what that means is people look and

say oh my gosh I'm finally up on this

position again or okay I've made some

money again now I'm going to take some

of that risk off the table I've been

waiting for a bounce and I want to take

some risk off the table before

potentially you know April 2nd or some

more hard data rolls over so I'd be

watching very closely for that uh and

one of the ways we might be able to

indicate what's happening is that the

end of the day at the end of the day on

Friday what you actually noticed is we

had inflows into the market this is the

NASDAQ 100 uh you had this darn

consolidation here and then you had this

nice inflow right here this inflow in my

opinion was institutions saying oh this

is perfect Donald Trump is pairing back

some of the Tariff threats that we saw

we talked about this on Friday but we

really didn't get more color on it until

this weekend when Bloomberg and the Wall

Street Journal went more deep on this uh

and it led to even more enthusiasm with

this massive Gap up in the premarket and

the continuation on the day if at the

end of the day we see a big red

Candlestick could be assigned

institutions are fading and taking

profits if we see a push to 494 it's

bullish anyway that's my take on what's

going on in the market today thank you

so very much for watching and we'll see

you all in the next one also feel free

to check out house hack or

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more over at house.com thanks so much

for watching we'll see you soon in the

next one links below as well goodbye and

good luck why not advertise these things

that you told us here I feel like nobody

else knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin PA there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your take