Trump Pitches *NEW* Stimulus Checks: $3,600

Donald Trump just suggested the

possibility of a rebate or stimulus

check. Hey everyone, me Kevin here. Take

a look at this. We've got Donald Trump.

This is where he mentions it. What we're

going to do in this video is calculate

how much a stimulus check could be worth

in the event Donald Trump gave up, let's

say, one year's worth of tariff revenue

or a half. And then of course we've got

to factor in is there a potential

economic risk to that or is it possible

that the stimulus check if it comes

could come in the response to higher

unemployment? Who knows? But let's

listen to this from Donald Trump.

>> A dead country one year ago. Now we have

the hottest country anywhere in the

world.

>> Don't you feel it, Mr. President? Mr.

president, with all of that revenue

coming in tens and tens of billions of

dollars,

>> do you think there's the possibility of

a rebate to the American public in terms

of

>> Is there a possibility of a rebate to

the American public? Sorry, you've got

the uh turbine engine, similar engines

to what you use in a jet aircraft uh for

the helicopter right behind them. Uh

probably just cooling down the

helicopter, getting it ready for him. Uh

quick fun fact, the uh basically turbine

engine in a helicopter turns a shaft,

whereas in a jet engine on an aircraft,

it blows out the back. Anyway, very

similar premise though in the engine.

>> All of that money. We're thinking about

that actually. We have so much money

coming in, we're thinking about a little

rebate, but the big thing we want to do

is pay down debt, but we're thinking

about a rebate. That's a very good

You just made a lot of news. We're

thinking about a rebate because we have

so much money coming in.

>> Listen to Trump. He's like, "You just

made a lot of news. We've been thinking

about it.

We've been We've got so much money

coming in from tariffs." We'll talk

about how much in just a moment.

>> From tariffs that tariffs that a little

rebate for people of a certain income

level might be very nice.

>> That was really it. There were no real

other questions, but let's do a quick

calculus on this. Uh so look, if we look

at how much income has been collected

from tariffs, we could see as of July

22nd, we've collected about $104 billion

from tariffs. However, mind you that

tariffs really didn't begin until April

so far this year. Uh and they began at a

reciprocal level of about 10%.

Currently, you're seeing a lot of trade

deals being negotiated at about 19 to

20%. Unless you're getting the quote

unquote buy down for a potential deal

with Japan, where you're seeing tariff

rates at about 15%, assuming Japan is

willing to finance some businesses in

America with cheap or subsidized loans

or uh equity investments into those

businesses. Ignoring all of that, the

point is tariff rates today are much

higher in practice than they were in

April. So considering this, we we

actually have to increase the amount of

tariffs uh that we potentially expect to

receive on an annual basis, assuming

there aren't, you know, there isn't some

large recession or whatever that comes

out of uh a slowdown in the economy and

joblessness. Though, ironically, if you

had a recession, Trump would probably be

more likely to issue stimulus checks

than less likely, especially with

midterms coming up next year. And Donald

Trump really needs to do everything in

his power to, I mean, I hate to use the

phrase, but distract from the Epstein

files and kind of get some, you know,

get some of his base happy with him.

Again, I'm unsure if like buying that is

going to make people forget, but it

might make people happier for sure,

especially if it's a $3,000 stimulus

check. Look at this. Onethird of the

year so far is about $104 billion. So,

at an annual rate, that's about $312

billion in tariffs. However, this

includes tariffs at a lower level than

10% and it only goes through July 22nd.

So, you've got to add at least another

week in here. Plus, tariff rates are

going to be higher, probably averaging

18-ish%. So, it's possible that the true

annualized rate of tariffs will actually

be closer to about $500 billion in

revenue. Donald Trump did suggest that

it would be for certain people of a

certain income. Obviously, you don't

want to see, you know, people making a

million dollars a year getting a

stimulus checks, which has been true for

every stimulus check in the past. We

usually cut it off somewhere around $125

to $150,000 in individual income,

potentially, you know, household income.

It could be as much as 250 to 300K. But

anyway, if you take the top 10% of

incomes uh in in America, you find the

cutoff line is at about $191,000.

This puts about 138 million taxpayers in

the lower 90%.

Uh so if you and and this is tax payers,

so you know, keep that in mind. Uh these

are individuals.

So, you know, if you had two taxpayers

in a house, even with one filing, uh

that that would be two taxpayers. So,

keep that in mind. This could be per

person, right? If you gave away uh all

assuming there are two tax filers in a

household in this case, uh so anyway, if

you gave away all of that $500 billion

in revenues, uh that would basically

work out to $500 billion over a year

divided by 138.4 million tax payers.

That works out to about $3,600

per person. Uh it's it's a little crazy

to think about it, but here's the actual

math on it so you can see it in a

calculator. Uh is 500 billion divided by

138.4 million filers puts us at about

3.6 and 12.

Uh so really, if you gave up half of

this amount of money, you'd be at about

$1,800 per taxpayer. Now, keep in mind,

one of the ways that Donald Trump could

sell this is he doesn't I don't think

Donald Trump has a benefit doing it in

2025. I think they want to align this

with midterms. Okay. Well, if by

midterms next year, you end up in, you

know, a softer labor market and people

are starting to say, "Hey, Donald Trump,

your tariffs are weakening the labor

market. It's causing damage." It would

be a great time for Donald Trump to

consider that sort of stimulus again,

especially now, it'll be inflationary.

Don't get me wrong, though. You know,

the cycle of government mistakes tend to

repeat, but Jerome Powell uh leaves in

May of 2026. So, you're probably

honestly going to put a Kevin Hasset uh

in place because somebody like a Kevin

Walsh at the Fed, he is less uh less

interested in debt at the Fed, but Kevin

Hasset will do whatever Donald Trump

wants. Hasset's the guy who's just going

to bend the knee and go, I'll do

whatever you want, Mr. Trump. So, I

think you're more likely to see

stimulative style spending under Kevin

Hasset. And I think you're more likely

to see it in 2026 before midterms.

Remember, midterms are November of 2026.

So, I think if this $3,600 or $1,800

stimulus check comes or or whether it's

$1,000 or whatever it is, you know,

depending on how they want to brand it,

I think they could brand this and say,

"Hey, we'll give away all of the tariff

revenue for one year or we'll give away

half for one year and then we'll pay

down the debt with the rest." Who knows

what they end up using for marketing,

but I think they will use it as

marketing for the midterms. And it's

going to be a way to sort of I think for

them play cover for Epstein drama, any

weakness in the labor market, any

upsetness over tariffs in general. And

it's just sort of a way of maybe buying

some of that loyalty. And both parties

do this, right? I mean, it was a

motivation for Biden issuing checks. It

was a motivation for Gavin Newsome in

California issuing what were called the

California inflation relief stimulus

checks. And we're like, bro, this is

just going to cause inflation. But, you

know, politicians and and economics, two

totally different worlds often. Uh, but

hey, who cares if it ends up with uh,

you know, money in the bank, so to

speak. So, who knows? Donald Trump is

known for saying things uh, and and a

lot of things get said. So, take it all

with a grain of salt for right now. I do

think if anything, you have to wait

until next year. But uh you know if in

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>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst

and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great

to get your take.