Fed Goolsbee Freaks Out over Breakeven Rate

This is now just getting exhausting. Mr.

Goulsby, I'll save you the time. Is

saying, "Oh, well, yeah, you know, the

numbers this morning were certainly

below our break even rate, but you know,

the unemployment rate is still good."

Ghoulsby, have you not studied history

at all? Have you not at all made the

realization that once the damn

unemployment rate goes out, it's too

late? You're already in a recession. And

then Donald Trump will be right and

Jerome Powell will have proved his name.

Mr. Too late. Goulsby I think is a shill

for at this point the voice of well well

it was really interesting mind you

because Goulsby was one of the first

people to say once the labor market

slows it's really hard to just magically

stop it somewhere. And I respected that

because it's like yeah it's true. When

the labor market's on this trajectory

down, it's really difficult to go, okay,

stop. It's really hard to make that

happen. Now, we're clearly seeing the

labor market slow. We got in the last

labor report at the beginning of August,

we had three months in a row, three

months in a row, mind you, May, June,

July, of bad data, an average of about

35,000 jobs. Now we've basically got a

fourth month in a row putting us closer

to maybe 35 to 40,000 when you average a

four month in a row. Usually people

don't do, but if you average four months

in a row, it's somewhere around 308 to

40,000 jobs that you're creating per

month, that's very low. And Google's bas

well, the unemployment rate, you know,

it's still it's still on the lower side,

guys. You know, why don't we just why

don't we wait and see what the next

inflation report says? Have you not seen

this damn chart? My goodness, do I

really have to break out this damn

chart? I broke out this chart in the

alpha report this morning. Uh, which I I

know a lot of you are like, "Oh, Kevin,

it's coupon expiration day." I know. I

know. Bullish catalyst. Where was the

bullish catalyst? Oh, it's actually

crazy. Where the I I'll give you a

little spoiler where the bullish

catalyst was today. In our alpha report

today,

>> guaranteed. You can go look it up

yourself. In our alpha report today,

Kevin said, "Boys and girls, it's fully

priced in the cues. This suck is going

to come down." And it came down. And I

said, what was going to do well today?

Things like real estate. And boy, we got

almost 6% on Rocket Mortgage with a nice

little pop right at the start of the

day. Really nice. But not just Rocket

Mortgage. Look at even Open Door ending

up 11.58%.

And rocketing right at the open. That's

where you got most of the gains right

after the open. So, I'm just saying if

you're not part of the offer report yet,

you're missing out. You know, that

coupon expires today at midnight. But

look at this. This is a chart of the 27

weeks unemployed. You'll already know

this. When this chart starts

skyrocketing, it's too late. You may as

well take a giant screenshot of this and

paste over it, Mr. Too late. Why?

because it shows you exactly that if you

wait for the quote unquote four horsemen

of uh labor market data to uh to roll

over, you will end up being Mr. Too

late. Why? Look, it's very simple. If

you wait for 27 weeks unemployed, which

is your long-term six-month unemployed,

for example, to skyrocket, look at when

it skyrockets

in the 1950s after the recession. after

the recession. Uh after the recession

basically uh over here in 1970 over here

19 mid70s after the recession is when

you get the skyrock. What about over

here in the 80s? Probably about 2/ird of

the way through the recession. What

about over here after the recession in

the '9s? What about over here in the

2000s? Maybe 2/ird of the way through

the recession. What about over here?

Recession's basically almost over in

2009. What about over in COVID after the

recession? Usually when this line starts

spiking, when it starts spiking, so the

beginning of it, mind you, we're just at

the very beginning of that spike taking

off. We're not at the highest levels of

this this spike yet, right? But we're at

the beginning of this this spiking up.

When you look at the beginning of this

spiking up, you tend to be at the

beginning portion of a recession. Let's

look at it just sort of over time here.

Uh so or or maybe halfway through a

recession, right? So in the ' 50s,

you're about halfway through recession.

Uh over here in the 70s, you're probably

about 80% of the way through a

recession. You know, most of the the

peaking of the data comes after the

recession. Uh the same, by the way, is

true of the unemployment rate. This is

why Donald Trump says you will end up

being too late if you wait. Now, I I

don't want you to just think about this

because we also got news on Cougler

today.

That's going to be an interesting one as

well. Let's just say uh CNBC is sussing

out that maybe Cougler also had a little

bit of mortgage sussiness sussybaka

going on. It's not that great. Mortgage

rates, by the way, biggest one day drop

in a while here. No wonder real estate's

doing so freaking well. That call though

on the freaking cues today that we

topped out

before the market open was clutch. Just

see that in the alpha report every

before the market opens up. But look at

it. So if you look at the unemployment

rate, if you actually wait for the

unemployment rate to do more than this

sort of half percent point rise that

we've done or maybe even you wait for it

to go to 5%. If it goes to 5% or 6%,

you're already going to be midway

through the recession. You will be too

late. Guaranteed the unemployment rate.

Never ever not once in the history of

recession does the unemployment rate

skyrocket before the recession. Not once

in the history of recessions. So what

student of economics are you ghouls when

you can't tell that once the numbers

start turning it's when you need to wake

up and instead what do you do? You go on

Bloomberg. Oh, well, we're still waiting

for, you know, inflation because um

well, you know, one month doesn't make a

trend. This isn't one month. We are now

at 4 months of cracking data, you numb

skull. Why do you think the bond market

is at the lowest place it's been all

year in terms of yields, which actually

means the highest price that it's been

all year? Why do you think the 10ear is

about to break under three freaking

under under four% back into the threes?

because we're pricing in that this is

more than just just one month of DA.

We're going to wait for it to so dumb.

Listen, Bulls be telling us we're going

to have to wait for the inflation

numbers to make decision. We got QCW

revisions coming out on the 9th. Look at

inflation dates. You've got 911. That's

2 days after the QCLA QCEW revision. So

on the 9th QCW, take a shot every time I

say that. On the 10th, you're going to

get PPI. We're expecting.3. on CPI month

over month you're also expecting.3 okay

easy that's going to be on the 11th 9 10

11 we're going to cover all of it but we

want to confirm a soft landing and so

far the data just it's making a

four-month trend to no soft landing here

then great for real estate companies

great for real estate stocks great for

mortgage rates probably not so great for

fully priced in technologies now again

I'm not trying to be a bear here just is

what it is now CNBC uh also writing a

piece about Cougler saying that the

mystery of Federal Reserve Cougler's

resignation deepens. Basically, what

they say is, hey, like she wrote a

letter that she was going to leave and

she was going to go teach at Georgetown

this fall, but Georgetown's website

doesn't list her as a teacher. It lists

her or professor. It lists her as

someone on the Fed Reserve Board who's

on a leave of absence from Georgetown,

and she's not teaching any classes this

fall. So, CNBC dug around her mortgage

records. It finds that she has a

potential multi-million dollar property

that is listed on mortgage records as

owner occupied, but is potentially on

tax records listed as a rental. So, some

people think people were basically

digging into her and she's like, "All

right, it's getting too hot in the

kitchen. I'm getting the hell out of

here." And she basically dipped before

her reputation got whacked like cooks.

And CNBC is now bringing light to that,

though it's not really getting a lot of

headlines because really at this point I

think people are like, "Who cares, man?

Donnie Donnie T is about to get the rate

cuts he's looking for." I mean, it makes

sense. It totally makes sense. Now,

we'll see again where we go. Uh, but uh

we did also some buying this morning in

our top 10 stocks uh for the next 10

years. I sent that alert out in the

courses. Make sure you get that lifetime

access. Uh and then um on uh let's see

here what we talked about

uh today I I just want to be very clear

is possible that it continues next week.

We'll see as we get data going into next

week,

but next week 9 10 11 this trend of

the skittishness near highs here would

continue. 9 10 11 mark calendar and then

remember midnight tonight the expiration

of the courses on building your wealth

and the alpha report.

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you. Kevin Pafra there, financial

analyst and YouTuber, Meet Kevin. Always

great to get your take.