WARNING: Massive Bank Collapses are Coming | Treasury REFUSES Bailouts

Janet Yellen just spoke on bailouts

Jerome Powell gave his opinion on bank

bailouts and the lagging effects of the

federal reserve's interest rate hikes

are finally hitting with the collapse of

a Silicon Valley Bank and silvergate

just last week now the largest bank

failure via svb since 2008 folks buckle

up and get ready svb and the FDIC have 8

500 employees now getting paid 1.5 x

their salary at Silicon Valley Bank for

the next 45 days just to help the bank

actually survive during the liquidation

process Silicon Valley Bank is expected

to open under FDIC receivership on a

Monday we expect a lot of people to be

in line at banks around the nation for

and quite frankly around the world given

that svb also has International

facilities looking to withdraw their

money from svb but it's not just svb

it's also the potential contagion risk

of people not knocking on the door of

banks like First Republic or other local

Regional Community Banks potentially

even Credit Unions as even Credit Unions

people are likely to be clamoring on the

doors of banks demanding to get their

money out of the banking system at first

we expect the bank run to only be

limited to smaller less likely to be

systemically important on banks those

are most likely to see the largest

withdrawals in that classic Bank Run

that we haven't seen since 2008 despite

the fact that this is exactly what

Donald Trump actually predicted might

happen during the 2020 election now back

then and it doesn't matter if you're on

the left or right you might have thought

it was hyperbole I think almost

everybody did because back in 2020 I

don't think many of us were thinking a

massive recession was coming in that

there would be bank failures much like

1929 and so whether or not he was making

that up or he has a crystal ball that's

what's happening now you're seeing the

prominent lender for wineries disappear

so Winery credit lines being frozen

companies like lemonade having money

tied up in a Silicon Valley Bank Roku

having 25 of their available cash tied

up rocket lab 38 million dollars of cash

tied up there's a particular a sofa even

has a 40 million dollar lending facility

tied up by Silicon Valley Bank and

usually money that's drawn on those

lending facilities that isn't used in

working capital has to be left deposited

with the bank as a lending Covenant

though we're not sure of that detail so

far of course I'm bragging that their

money is safe but of course we've never

heard anybody lie to us before about how

safe their money is hint hint

sandbankment free just two days before

don't worry everything is fine or how

about block fi the same morning don't

worry everything is fine just eight

hours later oh no everything's not fine

we are now bankrupt and we can't process

withdrawals anymore the worst thing that

you want to hear from a bank is don't

worry everything is a fine in a bank run

unfortunately that's just the way the

game is played banks have to fight for

their own Survival so they say what they

will to try to soothe people with money

in Banks so what should you do and what

do we think is going to happen because

right now fears of contagion are running

rampant Larry Summers is warning of

severe economic consequences if

Regulators don't smooth it Venture

capitalists who have a lot of money tied

up in startups that could go bankrupt if

they can't get their money out of

Silicon Valley Bank are scrambling on

Twitter saying it's The Regulators who

were asleep at the wheel that it's the

regulator's fault that Silicon Valley

Bank was able to get away with terrible

risk management procedures that led to

the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank

quite frankly there is a ton of finger

pointing even 180 tech companies sent a

letter to Jeremy Hunt the chancellor of

the exchequa in the United Kingdom

begging Jeremy Hunt to intervene and

guess what he said in the United Kingdom

for sale silicon Valley's branches there

sorry we ain't bail India out so what do

we think is going to happen in America

is it possible that the loss of deposits

by consumers at the Silicon Valley Bank

have the potential to the entire

sector and set the ecosystem back 20

years and Destroy potentially 10 years

of innovation in America as the CEO of Y

combinator wants you to believe is it

possible that the 16th largest bank in

America will end up leading to a

disaster financial crisis in the United

States and ultimately whose fault is it

well let's get into all of this and more

we're specifically going to refer to

history we are going to refer to what is

happening with hedge fund buyouts we're

going to refer to Jerome Powell Janet

Yellen we're going to talk about a

potential backstop fund we're going to

talk about where rokana gets his

information wrong and we're going to

talk about what you should do if you are

associated with the banks this is very

important what you should do will be

coming up as well as always this channel

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it comes to pricing so what do we need

to talk about first let's briefly touch

on hedge fund buyouts what's happening

right now with startups is startups are

realizing that they have statements that

say hey man look we got a statement and

our statement says we have 10 million

dollars at the bank we need that working

capital Monday otherwise we're going

bankrupt and what are some hedge funds

doing they're coming in and saying write

us all of the rights to this account

that has 10 million dollars we will give

you six million dollars right now that

is called a hedge fund buyout where a

hedge fund literally swoops in and says

here's six million dollars write your

entire account over to us the benefit to

the startup is they get at least some

access to their Capital without having

to wait potentially weeks or months to

find out what happens once they're above

the uh the 250k FDIC limits or the other

limit depending on how your accounts are

structured now the benefit to the hedge

fund is if they end up getting a larger

bailout say a 70 80 90 or even a hundred

percent backstop the hedge fund gets

that other up to four million dollars

just in this example those hedge fund

buyouts are happening now because

businesses are actually panicking that

they might go bankrupt if they don't

have access to at least some of their

capital and folks this has happened

before in history obviously this has

happened back in the 2008 financial

crisis there's no doubt about that and

in nominal terms we have seen this

happen recently as well because consider

that in nominal terms we've had just a

wee bit of inflation here so when we

compare the current banking failure of

Silicon Valley Bank to banking failures

of 2008 it looks a little scary it's not

something you want to look at but I'm

going to show you anyway look on screen

now look at silicon Valley's 209 billion

dollars asset failure which almost

Rivals the 307 billion dollar bank

failure of Washington Mutual also known

as WAMU that ended up being bought up by

JP Morgan Chase I was actually part of

that because I personally had banks at

WAMU that ended up being converted to

JPMorgan assets which JPMorgan today is

the largest bank in the country with

over 3.3 trillion dollars in assets it's

absolutely insane but what does history

tell us well the first thing we could do

is we could look at the history of 1991

and 1991 gives us some insights into not

only Jerome Powell's opinion on bank

bailouts but we also learn what actually

ended up happening in 1991. let's go

ahead and start with Jerome Powell take

a look at what Jerome Powell did and

said back in a book written by hawks Ado

or actually titled talks doves and

jaybird anyway take a look at this page

here what you find here is a Harvard

academic whom Powell reported to came

down firmly on a one side now this is

this is a Harvard academic here and this

individual whom Powell reported to in

other words Powell's boss came down

firmly on one side Powell's boss hated

bailouts and Powell huddled with the

federal Governors uh or these various

different Governors at the treasury

Department about uh where we had the uh

boss of Jerome Powell pounding the table

insisting that depositors take a haircut

and pay for the sins of the bank if we

always run to the rescue he said it

creates a moral hazard so in other words

Jerome Powell grew up his financial

knowledge when here in 1991 when he was

just beginning his career in in

essentially monetary and fiscal policy

and his boss told us

that Banks should not be bailed out and

neither should depositors the reason for

that was it creates the impression that

the government will always run to the

rescue and it creates something known as

moral hazard which is a term the

insurance industry uses to refer to

people who take risks knowing they're

protected against larger losses now what

I think is fascinating about this is

think about this yourself it if you have

accidental damage protection for let's

say your iPhone you're much more likely

to take your iPhone on the roller

coaster and video yourself because if

you damage it you're insured anyway this

is the same thing obviously on a

different scale that also happens in our

economy when Banks believe that the

government is going to come in and save

depositors then what happens banks are

more likely to take on risky debt and

make risky loans because at the end of

the day the depositors will end up

getting protected anyway whether they

have more money than the FDIC Insurance

limits or not and this is where Jerome

Powell's boss insisted that depositors

end up taking a haircut to pay for the

sins of the bank and this is important

because this is the same kind of

discussion that is very likely happening

today we don't think that people who

have more than 250 000 at uh the fdi's

or over the FDIC limit at svb are going

to lose all of their money but consider

this let's say that the bank Silicon

Valley Bank has seven has enough money

to cover 70 deposits above the FDIC

limit let's say you're a startup with 10

million two hundred and fifty thousand

dollars at the bank well 250 000 gets

covered by FDIC so let's kill that and

say you have 10 million dollars above

the limit and now potentially through an

FDIC guided liquidation of the bank it's

possible that the individual or the

business with 10 million dollars could

get seven million dollars back this is

an example of receiving a haircut on a

deposit at a bank now some people say

why is it the responsibility of an

individual or a business to take a

haircut well it is that individual or

business whom technically received the

benefits and choice of working with that

bank and in a capitalistic environment

whether it is right or wrong a depositor

who share and the benefits of the bank

may also have to share in the risks of

the bank and this is exactly the kind of

discussion that's going to be happening

now because if Federal Regulators bail

out every deposit or to a hundred

percent it reiterates that hey as long

as you're in the top 16 of banks don't

worry the government will just come in

and bail you out even if you had

terrible risk management procedures at

the bank which Silicon Valley Bank did

we'll talk about those in a different

segment but here's what we think uh will

happen and this went on here so other

folks in the discussion argued that if

uninsured depositors take a haircut

there will end up being a run on every

American Bank when they open on Monday

and all those Money Center banks will be

at our door do you really want to run

that test and ultimately without dissent

Powell and crew chose to bail out banks

in 1991. now that's actually really

interesting but because the discussion

showed there was a thought that

depositor should take a haircut and not

everything should be bailed out and we

just got some hints from Janet Yellen

about what our government might be

thinking about doing today but let's go

ahead and jump into this first this is a

piece from

1991. this 1991 piece from The New York

Times shows us the following acting to

avert a run on one of the nation's

largest banking companies the federal

government today sees the Bank of New

England and two Affiliated Banks and

said it would protect all depositors

until the bank could be sold the rescue

is likely to cost taxpayers 2.3 billion

dollars listen to that if the government

bails out Silicon Valley Bank it's

likely to cost taxpayers money now

there's been some talk that maybe it

wouldn't don't worry it will it will

cost taxpayer money taxpayers money and

we will talk about it here now JD young

did just say we're not going to do that

again referring to bailouts but she gave

some hints about what they're

potentially going to do let me first

continue on with 1991. in 1991 there was

a bank run of 1 billion dollars being

withdrawn over two days

on Friday in America

42 billion dollars were withdrawn from

Silicon Valley Bank on just the Friday

think about the magnitude of that back

in 1991 you had just 500 000 per day

withdrawn and that led to the government

essentially creating a too big to fail

bailout on Friday we had 84 times the

bank run of that and that is why many

are scratching their head going wait a

second usually usually when the FDIC

takes over a bank you know what they do

they wait until 5 PM on Friday they take

the bank over they operate over the

weekend to officially

take over

the bank and then what they reopen

Monday now when did the FDIC take over

Silicon Valley Bank

at about 8 52 a.m Pacific time on Friday

in other words

Regulators went into this bank early

Friday morning and potentially late

Thursday and said this is so bad we're

not even going to wait until the day is

over we are going to shut the doors of

the bank just 52 minutes after the bank

opened and potentially in some cases

Banks don't even open until 9 A.M so

potentially this bank got shut before it

ever even opened that day

depending on the branch so anyway so we

talked about uh Powell's boss we talked

a little bit about uh a potentially

Janet Yellen we'll talk more about that

in just a moment but take a look at this

Bank of New England was the 33rd largest

bank in America at the time the Silicon

Valley Bank is the 16th largest bank in

America big difference so the bank is

twice as big as a ranking Factor as uh

the New York or the New England bank

that was bailed out was in 1991 but

there are also banks that did not get

bailed out and look at what happened to

them

here in 1990 the freedom National Bank

of New York in Harlem one of the

nation's largest minority-owned

institutions was not bailed out and as

the bank collapsed the FDIC ended up

deciding to only make good on 50 cents

on a dollar for all accounts larger than

the then FDIC limit a 50 Cent haircut

was created for banks in 1990. that's

actually surprising it is something that

could happen today but here's something

else that happened in the early 1990s

Governors like the governor of Rhode

Island ended up swooping in and actually

preemptively shutting down local banks

and Credit Unions for Fears that they

might not be solvent so in other words

you could literally have Regulators come

in and just close every local bank

potentially if not saying they will but

it's possible you could potentially have

Regulators come in close every local

bank and say give us a few weeks we need

to figure out what's going on this is

why it's incumbent upon you to probably

get your money out of local and Regional

and credit union banks that are local I

understand credit unions are different

we'll talk about that in a different

segment but most people do not

differentiate between credit unions and

Regional Banks they just go uh not JP

Morgan not Bank of America not Wells

okay let's move but honestly even Bank

of America and Wells are trending on

Twitter for people frustrated that their

Bank does not have enough cash on hand

for them to actually withdraw money now

even though those banks are deemed to be

too big to fail and stand under the

bazel 3 statutory requirements of

substantially stronger stress tests and

so technically you shouldn't have to

withdraw your money from those large

Banks people are freaking out that

branches are actually running out of

cash now do keep in mind branches do not

have an unlimited amount of cash so the

best thing you can do to guarantee that

you can get your money out of a facility

is come in with a bank account and

routing number and two forms of ID and

ask that it be wired out of your account

it's like an electronic funds transfer

that can happen same day usually if you

go in your bank before 1 pm Pacific time

and generally since it's probably going

to take time you'll probably have to

show up at like eight or nine to

actually get it done you can initiate

your wires online maybe that's even

easier

but what did Janet Yellen just tell us

well let's jump into exactly what she

just said because well we need to know

about it not only do we need to know

about it but we want to know about it

because ultimately Janet Yellen

so Janet Yellen uh and and this she had

about a 10 minute clip on with Face the

Nation this morning I'm just gonna sum

it up for you because I I respect your

time I'm also going to sum up what

rokana said about the Silicon Valley

Bank uh uh right after that in the

collapse so we're going to go through

both of those but what did Jen Yellen

say this morning Janet Yellen told us

that they are paying attention to

exactly what's happening at Silicon

Valley bank and they are coming up with

a plan now this is really interesting

she said that they will not bail out

Banks like they did in 2008 but there is

a Nuance there generally now especially

if you look on Twitter or in the

financial news media you're going to see

the word bailout be different from a

protection of depositors especially the

Venture capitalists who are getting

screwed they're making this very clear

distinction hey a bailout is when you

bail out the owners of the bank like

shareholders bondholders people who have

Bank preferred stock basically people

who are associated with the profits of

the bank that's deemed to be a bailout

these days on social media whereas

protecting depositors is what people are

clamoring for and the idea here is that

if as long as there's no quote-unquote

bailout of the profit holders hey we

could protect depositors so what did

Janet Yellen say when she was asked

about protecting depositors she said

quote we're working timely on a solution

she was specifically asked will you have

a solution before the Asian markets open

today Sunday Sunday afternoon she said

we're working Timely

well what kind of plans are you working

on Janet Yellen what was the answer the

answer is we're working on some kind of

solution to prevent contagion that's

what she said she did not say that they

would protect depositors she made it

very clear that they would not bail out

this bank so let's write this down and

try to picture this a little bit more

clearly

so on the full left side you have what's

known as basically a full bailout this

is where you come swooping and you

really you try to protect shareholders

bondholders anyone associated with a

bank

in the middle you have what's known as

protecting depositors right people who

have deposits on hand with the bank

protecting them is sort of the middle

approach however the middle approach is

likely to cost money right this costs

tax money and obviously so would the

full bailout cost money so what is she

potentially considering a contagion fund

that is what's being talked about right

now A contagion fund so what is a

contagion fund a contagion fund is

basically a way of saying this look

here's Silicon Valley Bank let the FDIC

liquidate the bank and give people

whatever they can from the liquidations

of the bank if that's everybody with up

to 250 000 gets a hundred percent of

their money and everybody else above

that gets 70 then you know what maybe so

be it let Silicon Valley Bank fail now

you eliminate moral hazard you create

pain depositors take a haircut but

you risk contagion contagion means you

risk the potential that people go to

other Banks and start taking their money

out so what could a contagion fund do

well a contagion fund could say the

following

it could be the treasury Department

saying hey we are confident the

following ex-banks uh will have will

have their deposits backed 100 percent

and it could basically be a list of

maybe the top 300 Banks as a thesis

right because what the treasury

Department doesn't want to do is create

contagion to where everybody just goes

to the top four Banks even though that's

probably what you should do it is likely

that the treasury Department does not

want to create an oligopoly an oligopoly

is basically where you have like oil

companies or TV companies like Charter

or ATT or whatever controlling very few

options for you to actually receive

goods and services in this case banking

goods and services so if the treasury

Department creates a fund a contagion

fund and says hey these top 300 Banks

let's say accept svb are good just an

idea here and we are confident with an x

billion dollar amount of backstop that

you won't lose your deposits at these

Banks fantastic now you could limit

people fleeing those top 300 Banks and

basically the other ones that are not

listed could potentially go into some

form of temporary receivership now this

is not guaranteed this on the right here

is just an idea Janet Yellen has not

given us an idea uh or or has not given

us a a very clear guide in terms of what

the treasury is going to do she has just

said we want to limit contagion and we

will not bail out Silicon Valley Bank

this is what we know this idea about a

treasury contagion fund is what is being

talked about and it is my speculation

that they could come out and say hey

we're going to backstop and promise the

top X Banks it could be the top 300 it

could be the top 30. it could be the top

20. who knows the point is the the last

thing we want is people going into every

single bank and trying to rip their

money out you don't want people lining

up a JP Morgan trying to Joint their

money out because all of a sudden

they're afraid of banks right

that's what you don't want to happen but

it does look like a bailout for svb is

unlikely could there be a backstop of

deposits yes but that is likely to cost

taxpayer money rocana this morning on

Face the Nation said oh no no no no we

can backstop 100 of deposits without

spending a dime of taxpayer money he

said that because he doesn't seem to

understand financials now that's okay I

don't know if he's looked at the

financials maybe he's only been told

about these I actually happen to like

rocana I think he's a very reasonable

person

he's a California Democrat I know a lot

of people don't like California

Democrats but of the Congress men and

women now there are the crocanas one of

the the people with a good heart uh and

and actually some reasonable opinions I

just think he's wrong about what he say

the reason I think he's wrong about what

he's saying is because in my opinion

it's very simple okay I'm gonna make

this very simple for you here is the

financial statement for Silicon Valley

Bank as of December 31st 2022.

and let's look at exactly what they told

us we've done this before so I don't

want to sound redundant but I want to

make it extremely clear let's go over

here total liabilities what do we have

folks we have

195 498 okay sounds good what do we have

up here total assets 211 793 oh but wait

hold on a second we need to look at

these hell to maturity Securities which

might be liquidated we actually have to

Discount this number so 91321 minus

76169 that leaves us with a reduction of

assets of fifteen one five two now in

addition to reducing assets by 15

billion dollars 0.152 you also have to

add the following discounts these

financial statements are 72 days old

which means the losses are actually

probably substantially greater in

addition to that that you have to

consider the liquidation prices of the

rest of the assets which means for

example look at this see this item right

here that's called Goodwill sorry dude

Goodwill of 375 is going to be

subtracted as well what else is going to

get subtracted other intangibles things

we can't sell 136 is going to go away

what about this lease nobody gives a

crap about the lease you can liquidate a

lease let's get rid of that how about

all this equipment that they have well

you're going to get Pennies on the

dollar for that so let's say let's take

a 350 off on that we'll leave about 15

percent left on that well what about all

of the leftover loans and the other

losses that they're going to have just

by the time that went by you're probably

going to have I would guess another at

least at least a 10 reduction on your

maturities at least that so all of a

sudden when I take 211 793

uh and I subtract another 1.5 bill I

subtract uh 375 I subtract 136 I

subtract 335 I subtract 350 and this is

me being generous with another 10 over

here on on top of this one of this 15

bill this is generous that generously

puts you

uh at a position where uh now this 211

right here actually looks a lot more

like 15 152 there we go it actually

looks like

195

139 Which is less than the total debts

the company has so in other words as of

this old statement here the company is

upside down now do we think that the

company is only upside down by this

let's pray because if the company is

only upside down to this tune the

company could probably pay out somewhere

around 99 on all deposits over 250k this

would be a dream scenario what I've just

described is the dream scenario okay so

this idea that taxpayers won't have to

pay a dime is a dream and it ain't gonna

happen okay even even in the Stream

scenario there's still gonna be

sometimes getting paid but anyway

wait a second what we did is just set an

extra 10 losses on the 15 they already

have let's start over for just a quick

moment and show you how nasty this gets

you ready for this let's erase all this

stuff that we just drew right here and

let's go over here

and look at all their maturities that

they have well they have

76.1 billion dollars let's just look at

those 76.1 billion dollars of health and

maturity Securities Plus available for

sale 26 billion dollars they have 102

billion dollars of maturities if those

need to be written down another 20 to 30

percent in a fire sale let's go with 30

for Giggles that means you're actually

down another 70 or another 30 billion

dollars on top of what we showed over

here that means you're potentially

sitting at only 165 billion in assets

compared to about 195 in liabilities

that in that example represents about 15

cents on the dollar of deposit or money

evaporating so the point is

this bank is insolvent if the government

bails out Silicon Valley Bank they will

be paying money to bail this Bank out

the taxpayer will pay for any bailout of

Silicon Valley Bank and that is why I

think rocana is wrong with you say maybe

I'm looking at it wrong I don't think I

am so what's next what should you do

well the first thing you should do is if

you have exposure to Silicon Valley Bank

you should consider going to the

fdic.gov website just Google FDIC

calculator Google it and you'll see

where you can actually calculate what

your exposure is to the FDIC limits if

you have more than 250 000 in deposits

the next thing that in my opinion people

should do

is get out of the small Banks I hate to

say it and yes I am including Credit

Unions I am including fintech apps who

invest your money into small banks on

your behalf if you're fintech like a

chime an acorns an M1 Finance or

whatever is depositing money into

another small Regional Bank that is a

risk in my opinion even so fight to some

extent is a small Bank

that in mind it is a bank

it is a small Bank though so just keep

that in mind

personally and I'm not trying to create

fear I'm trying to prevent the loss of

money for individuals who watch and

support my channel that's my goal that's

why of course is on building your wealth

the goal is to help everybody build

their wealth and I would not risk having

any of my money at a bank that is not a

systemically important Bank what is the

cutoff for a systemically important Bank

in other words too big to fail well

thanks to Donald Trump we have that

answer

Donald Trump actually changed with

Congress the laws of systemically

important banks by requiring that Banks

be considered systemically important not

at 50 billion dollars like they used to

be instead

they listened to CEOs like those at

Silicon Valley Bank who lobbied for that

limit to be raised and now the limit for

a systemically important bank is 250

billion dollars in assets

in other words under the Trump admin the

bar first for a systemically important

Bank was raised to 250 mil Silicon

Valley Bank was at 208 and Silicon

Valley Bank lobbied to have that level

raised because they didn't want the

additional regulation so the people on

Twitter clamoring and screaming and

saying oh well The Regulators were

asleep at the wheel wrong Congress and

the presidential Administration

LED Regulators to be pulled away from

Banks like Silicon Valley Bank at the

request of banks like Silicon Valley

Bank and that CEO is the same person who

just dumped millions of dollars of

shares just weeks before this collapse

but don't worry their Chief uh managing

officer with their CMO either marketing

manager their CMO that worked at Silicon

Valley Bank happened to have a very

strong and robust history of also

working for Lehman Brothers back when

they collapsed you can't make this stuff

up

so to be crystal clear I would not have

a dime of my money in smaller Banks

certainly not if I had more than 250 000

some if you want to maintain a

relationship hey maybe you keep a few

thousand dollars and I know this is

offensive to a lot of smaller Banks and

I know a lot of people think hey that's

just going to create more more fear

uncertainty and doubt but here's the

reality

it costs you nothing to move your money

it could cost you a lot of money tens of

thousands to potentially millions of

dollars depending on how much you have

deposited on behalf of your business or

yourself by not acting the lazy thing to

do is not act the smart thing to do is

in my opinion consolidate where there is

the least risk where you know jpow is on

your side we always say don't fight the

fed and where is the Fed with the money

printer they're at the most systemically

important Banks JPM Bank of America

Wells City so on

that's my consideration

ultimately what you do is up to you but

I hope no matter what you think you

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