The Trump, Fed, & Housing Reset of 2026

Well, Red Fin's talking about 2026

having a housing reset, and a lot of it

has to do with the Federal Reserve,

which why all of a sudden is there this

big delay in getting a new Federal

Reserve person chosen? Donald Trump told

us we were going to get the pick this

week, but now he's delaying it until

next year. Why is he doing that? Well,

we might have some insights into exactly

why. Plus, we got to break down what Red

Fin is saying here on top of what the

heck happened with Microsoft this

morning because we know AI is what's

holding and propping up this economy.

Uh, and frankly, you know, unless you're

a stock millionaire right now, the

economy doesn't feel that great. Uh, it

makes sense mostly because 27 week

unemployment is rocketing up. Uh, black

unemployment, a historical recession

leading indicator of the most vulnerable

getting whacked, uh, is skyrocketing.

Pay growth is falling. We just had a

terrible ADP report this morning that

missed and indicated we're now net

negative on job gains since July, which

also isn't great. Uh, this is the worst

ADP trend we've had since 2023. So,

still not terrible, but I mean, all you

have to do if you want terrible trends

is look at challenger reports.

Challenger reports tell us not only did

we have the worst layoffs in 22 years

for an October month in October, which

also happens to be the month we're not

getting data for thanks to the Schumer

shutdown or Schumer siesta, whatever you

want to call it. Uh but October per the

challenger job cuts report is not only

the worst October in 2020 in 22 years

but also the month that we saw plans to

lay off more workers skyrocket by 28.5%.

It's a 28.5% increase in layoff plans

since March. That's not great. So it's

understandable the jobs market and the

economy don't feel super great right

now. And you've got stats that for Black

Friday, stores that had the best results

were stores that had sales for under

$100

as people are uh I guess pinching

together the pennies. That said, let's

talk about this Red Fin housing reset to

see will there be any kind of relief for

housing for folks and then also what the

economist is talking about regarding the

Federal Reserve because the economy I

think over the next 5 months is going to

be in sort of critical reset territory.

Uh and and this probably a good fivemon

set of time to be cautious. you know,

save money, reduce debt, get some cash

reserves if you can, add some skills,

recession proof skills, whether it's

like nursing or the trades maybe, or

even recession recovery skills like uh

real estate and lending. But you'll see

exactly that actually in this Red Fin

piece. So, it'll be very interesting.

But let's hit on this. So, what's going

on? So, the first thing that's going on

at the Federal Reserve is this concern

over who do we pick? So, Trump's like,

"Yo, let's pick Kevin Hasset." Okay. The

problem with Kevin Hassid, we all know

this, is he's he's a wet blanket. He's a

shill. He's a shill for Trump and that's

it. Myin at least has some

impressiveness to stand on, but Kevin

Hassid doesn't. In fact, The Economist

bags on the guy as being the guy who

wrongly called for the Dow Jones at the

peak of the bubble in 1999 to 4x and

wrote a book on how the Dow was going to

4x right before the dot crash. and that

in May of 2020, COVID deaths were just

going to evaporate. So, the economist

and a lot of people don't like Hasset. I

personally haven't liked Hasset either.

I think he's a wet blanket. And so, it

sounds like Trump wanted to announce

Hasset this week, put out a feeler that

it was going to be Hasset, which would

be great for reducing rates, but not

great for the, you know, status of the

Federal Reserve. Uh, and I think people

sent a lot of backlash Trump's way. And

so all of a sudden, Trump's walking this

back going, "No, you know what? We're

gonna wait. We're gonna wait to decide

until January of 2025 or 2026, so

basically the new year." Now, the

economist is arguing that

Waller is a way better choice. And I

actually totally agree with them. They

think that Chris Waller is somebody who

will rightly focus on inflation, whereas

Hasset wouldn't. Hasset wouldn't care

about the risks. he would only care

about making Trump happy. Whereas Kevin

H or Waller is a monetary policy expert

and even though they don't totally agree

with Waller's desire to cut rates, he

wants to cut rates, but he actually has

credibility

and had multiple correct calls,

including being dovish in 2011, being

hawkish in 20 uh 21, and uh you know,

now warning about jobs and the labor

market. So, they think he's on the right

side of history. And I kind of agree. I

think as long as we don't get somebody

like Kevin Walsh, it's good because

ultimately cutting rates is the right

decision. And rate cut bets are moving

in the favor of rate cuts. We got now a

94.6% chance of getting a rate cut

December 10th. 31% chance of having a

rate cut on my birthday, January 28th.

And I actually think the ADP numbers

this morning decreased the risk that

we're going to have a hawkish cut on

December 10th. So, that's continuing our

bullish trades for near-term bullishness

uh in the stock market. This is what

we've been talking about in the alpha

report. We've been talking about on the

channel as well. And so far, things like

Hood are breaking out, Tesla's breaking

out, the Q's are rising above our lines.

All three of these we've been mentioning

in the alpha reports over the past week

as breakouts. You've still got consumer

stocks recovering as well. Fun, Dave and

Busters, Target, all of them coming up

off of their lows. And if you look back

the week before Thanksgiving on the

18th, which was like within a day or two

of the bottom of the market, I made a

whole video called buy. And people are

like, "Oh, Kevin, I'm flip-flopping."

And if you watch the video, it's like,

"No, it's we should be bullish between

now and December 9th, you know, the day

before the meeting." Now, not only can

we reiterate that that was the correct

call, but we could reiterate that we

might be able to be bullish even past

December 9th, you know, and the 10th

meeting because of this weak jobs data.

But that's short-term bullishness

because we still have to deal with the

risk of an unemployment rollover. Now,

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connect. Redfin does not think we are

going to have an unemployment rollover

or recession. So, take a look at

Redfin's take, which keep in mind Redfin

got bought by Rocket Mortgage. So, if

you want to invest in Red Fin, you could

buy Rocket Mortgage and which I actually

don't think is a bad idea. I'm a little

biased because I think that's a great

play. Uh, but anyway, take a look at

this. The Great Housing Reset will take

shape in 2026. It won't be a price

correction or a recession, but rather

gradual increases in home sales and a

normalization of prices as affordability

gradually improves. In my opinion, this

is actually bullish being a realtor or a

lender. Because remember, realtors and

lenders make money off of volume. You

want volume when you're a realtor or a

lender. A little too zoomed in over

here, aren't I? I'll fix that later. But

anyway, you want volume, you know. So,

if you're doing loans, cash out

refinances or whatever, 2026 could be

great, recession or not, because as

rates slowly come down, you're going to

have more people refinancing. And that's

sort of the crux of this reset piece

here. See, they argue that the weak

labor market will lead the Fed to cut

rates more in 2026 and bring monetary

policy to a more neutral rate. Now,

they're only thinking that mortgage

rates are going to go to the low 6%

range, which it's worth remembering that

the Fed cutting does not equal lower

mortgage rates. The problem with the Fed

cutting is Fed rates have nothing to do

with mortgage rates. The 10-year is more

closely associated with mortgage rates

than anything else. The problem with

mortgage rates is mortgage rates are

going to price in the risk that you make

a policy mistake and you actually induce

inflation. Again, unfortunately, Kevin

Hasset uh and the choice of Kevin Hasset

has increased the risk of a shock.

Remember, we're shockrone right now. You

have to remember back in the banking

crisis that we had in 2023, we were not

shockrone. We were we were nowhere near

shockprone. That was uh that was right

here. We were neg we were totally

inverted on the 210 yield curve. That's

not shockprone. You're shockprone post

liberation. So this is when we're most

sensitive to any kind of like private

credit disaster or AI shock or whatever.

Now Blue Owl doesn't think that there's

a shock. You've got Blue Owl executives

and staff buying $200 million worth of

their shares after their, you know, uh

uh uh roll up of some of their funds

failed after the Financial Times exposed

them. and uh and they're like, "All

right, fine. We'll go buy the dip on our

stock." That that is somewhat of a

bullish signal or they're just throwing

good money after bad. We we don't

entirely know. But continuing with the

Red Fin comments here, they think that

home prices will rise 1% in 2026. This

is, you know, slow. It's a slow up,

which makes sense cuz rates haven't come

down rapidly yet. That's actually

bullish for being able to buy, though.

And that's what I like is I have this

mindset of I want to accumulate as much

real estate as I can. 2022, three, four,

five, six, accumulate as much real

estate as I can. And if we end up having

a recession and rates go to zero, I

think real estate could actually boom

because I don't think this would be a

real estate recession or we just slowly

get rates down and then real estate also

booms just by the nature of rates coming

down more over time more so than even

Red Fin is calling here. I personally

think and if I were the Fed chair this

is what I would do. If I were like in a

magical world, Fed chair and president

of the United States, I would remove

tariffs immediately. I would negotiate

free trade in a different way using soft

power and hard power or necessary, but I

would negotiate free trade in a

different way. I would not use tariffs.

I think tariffs are a terrible idea. Uh,

and I would instantly, if I were also

fed chair, I would instantly force rates

down to 2%, maybe even one and a half%.

That's how I think you stick to soft

landing. That's my opinion and I think

by removing tariffs you you wouldn't

actually be causing inflation in this

case. So now obviously you know my

opinion it's not necessarily going to

come true. Uh but that that's my bias if

you will. Now what's that interesting is

as I'm recording this segment here we

talked about the Kevin Hasset and Waller

situation but look at what just dropped

front page of the FT bond investors

warned US Treasury so Besset over

picking Hasset as Fed chair. That's

probably why the 102 Treasury spiked.

Treasury Department solicited feedback

on Hassid and other candidates in

one-on-one uh uh discussions.

Discussions took place in November

before Bessant held his final round of

interviews. Uh Treasury declined to

comment. Blah blah blah. But yeah,

basically people think he's a shill. No,

nobody wants to be Liz Trust. Ooh, wow.

Good call. Good call. Like you need

somebody that you could believe in. And

unfortunately, you know, Hasset's

probably not that guy. Uh, but that's

okay. They could pick Waller. Waller

would be a great choice. I would be so

happy if they pick Waller. So, this is

great news that people are putting up a

fuss and people should be putting up a

fuss over this stuff. It's kind of like

the fuss people should be putting up at

Micro Strategy. I hate to say it, but

Mic dude, Michael Sailor just dropped

$27 million on a new jet. Look at this.

Net cash used in investing activities

increased 15.4 4 billion. They spent uh

uh 15.4 billion in the increase uh for

the increase in purchases of Bitcoin and

a $27 million deposit on a new corporate

jet aircraft. And I think it's hilarious

because first of all, what are you

buying a corporate jet for? Like, I get

it. If you're investing in real estate,

you know, across half of the United

States, you need to go meet people. You

need to go do your damn job. You're

going to have to go fly around and meet

people. You got to do your job. But what

you actually have with Bitcoin, what are

you going to go check on your cold

storage in different locations? This is

insane. Michael Sailor doesn't need a

jet, let alone an 80 million jet. I I'm

guessing it's probably a G600. Somewhere

between 80 to $100 million is my guess.

Uh

kind of crazy. What's also very

interesting is wow, look at this

reference. In 2007,

Micro Strategy 101 went not to buy a

corporate jet aircraft. They bought a

$46 million jet aircraft right before

the crash. Holy smokes. [laughter]

Crazy. Somebody says Michael Sailor

needs money to fly his mistresses

around. Michael Sailor is going to float

off into the sunset rich

like crazy. Uh it doesn't really matter

even if Bitcoin and Micro Strategy go

bankrupt. He's already sucked his money

aside into mansions and real estate and

probably other assets that he doesn't

tell us about. But anyway, the Michael

Sailor thing's totally separate from

what we should talk about, which is

continuing with this great reset piece

here, which is home buying will become

more affordable because home price

growth will be slower than wage growth.

So, Red Fin is actually making the

argument of a soft landing. This is a

soft landing argument. It is not

consistent with what we are seeing right

now uh in ADP reports. Now, that's not

necessarily saying they're wrong. It's

just saying it's not what we're seeing

right now. In fact, what we're seeing

right now is small businesses are

getting whacked. Small businesses are

cutting expenses, which is smart. I

think it's already a little too late to

cut expenses. You know, I massively cut

expenses at House Act and then took some

of that money to invest in real estate

and some of it to invest in AI. And what

came out of it was this phenomenal AI

product that, you know, I I want to

double down on and and uh maybe even

triple down on because, you know, I I

actually think we might run into an IPO

boom cycle of euphoria thanks to AI and

there could be a like a rush for people

to IPO in 2026. And I'm like, man, sign

me up. Let's go. Let's let's rocket ship

this. No guarantees. This is not a

solicitation to invest. Always read

offering circulars. Investments come

with risk. But look, Anthropic taps IPO

lawyer as it's race uh as it races

OpenAI to go public. So, you've got

Anthropic tapping a law firm and talking

to investment banks to potentially go

public at a $300 billion valuation. Uh

which is

kind of a bullish sign. You know, it

wasn't like Microsoft's lowering AI

growth targets wasn't bullish this

morning. You know, they came out with

this piece right before the market

opened. the market briefly tanked and

I'm like this is not a big deal. Uh, and

the reason we know it's not a big deal

is because we read the bottom of the

article, which probably nobody got to,

but really maybe my guess is one group

or one sales group says that quotas for

the foundry product were reduced from

50% to 25% growth, which is still really

good growth, right? Microsoft overall is

denying that these quotas have been

lowered. So my guess is the company as a

whole is denying it but you know some

teams lowered quotas. That's my guess on

how to reconcile those stories. Who

knows? But broadly you know so far this

ISM report we got this morning still

talk about trying to fill vacancies for

jobs not getting a lot of applications.

Yes employment weaker but not falling

off a cliff which is good. This morning

we also in addition to the S&P ISMs

uh we got the PMI or sorry the ISM

report. This morning we also got the S&P

PMIS which was this and actually

indicated uh uh you know output growth

in all seven sectors still positive

though slower things slowing down uh a

little bit of a slowdown in employment

as well but majority of things were

still in expansion. So, we're not

falling off a cliff, but pay growth is

falling. Pay growth is seeing

substantial declines, at least based on

the ADP reports, and it's worst amongst

the smallest of businesses, which makes

sense. Okay, so, you know, trying to put

all of this together, hopefully Red Fin

is right. But the point, the bottom line

of what they see here is they think

we're going to see a lot of uh basically

well potentially people partnering on

real estate, which I think is a terrible

idea. I think the only way you should

ever partner on real estate is if one

person is in control. Like, you know,

this is why we structured House Hack

that we the way we did. So we can't have

fights with partners. No partners. You

know, Kevin's in Kevin's the boss. We

will do this and and it's and wow, the

ship works. kind of like the dictator of

real estate, you know, it's like we will

be doing it this way and it's fantastic.

It it works really really well. Uh but

but if you have, you know, you get into

a partnership, I think this is a stupid

idea. They're literally they literally

talk about prenuptual style partnerships

for Gen Z and millennial to try to

afford homes together. This is dumb. Uh

but they also talk about a renovation

boom coming. And if you remember, Warren

Buffett just invested into home builders

and renovation stocks. Specifically, he

invested in pool and you know his home

builders. Uh look at pool. If you go to

pool, pool's been declining. So maybe is

there an opportunity there? I don't

know. But maybe something to pay

attention to again. So, uh, what you

also find is Red Fin argues that people

are going to renovate their homes more

as rates come down. They'll also pull

out more HELOCs or cash out refinances

to fund those remodels. I'm personally

extremely bullish about this for our

renovation AI because if there's going

to be an AI IPO boom and euphoric phase

of the cycle and people are going to

renovate more dude I'm just thinking to

myself like this is music to my ears for

house hack and house hack investors

obviously no guarantees but like I'm

really excited about this. So now how do

you benefit off of this? Well I think

first I think this is bullish mortgage

companies. is I think this is bullish

renovations if we get a soft landing uh

and and broadly it's bullish the

consumer if wages do actually start

growing the way Red Fin says this this

housing reset will occur if it's

accurate and Waller will be a good Fed

if Fed chair if we end up getting Waller

so we'll see obviously the next five

months are going to be critical

especially after that ADP uh information

this morning, bad jobs report, you know,

negative jobs, which does, you know,

basically guaranteed our December cut

and probably gives us less hawkish of a

cut in December, which is great. But

something you have to think about for

the next 5 months, like things that I

think are smart to do right now, uh,

number one, brush up your resume. Number

two, pay down debt as much as possible.

Number three, grind to build your cash

reserve. You know, no margin, cash

reserve. You know, move extra cash to an

investment account so you don't spend

it. Like, I'm a big fan. I sent out a

daily wealth, you know, the free daily

wealth. Sent out a daily wealth saying,

"Hey, like, have you set up your auto

investing?" That was just an example of

a daily wealth we had yesterday. Uh, and

and I give an example of how I'm setting

up my auto investing to go from salary

to investments, right? But then also add

skills. You know, I'm a like I don't

think you can ever go wrong becoming a

realtor, becoming a lender, becoming a

pilot, you know, whatever, becoming a

licensed electrician, or even learning

how to do these sort of things. These

are good. So, um,

that's a strategic way to protect

yourself. Betting on a stimulus check is

kind of cool, but it's a gamble and it's

a bandage for what's really happening in

the economy. So, uh, that's that's my

broad outlook

uh, and strategy. Now, with that said,

yeah, the employment numbers, I hope the

worst ends soon. Like hopefully October,

November are just bad ju guu and we can

start getting back to growth in December

and January. If we start inflecting, by

the way, that's going to be your tell.

If you start inlecting on jobs growth up

and we start actually going positive

again, bullish, man. Bull bear scale.

bear bull skyrockets, man. That's that's

when you go bullish AI, um, you know,

bullish debt, whatever, because that's

that's when our soft landing starts

sticking. So, pretty excited about that.

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes.

>> Congratulations, man. You have done so

much. People love you. People look up to

you.

>> Kevin Pra there, financial analyst and

YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great to

get your take.