YIKES... i might be woefully mispositioned

is there a way this Market can keep

going and going and going it doesn't

make sense how could it keep going like

this and is there a potential reason

that it could keep going up well as

crazy as it sounds Bloomberg thinks yes

now I'm going to provide what Bloomberg

said which is quite bizarre that is the

opposite of what we've heard about in

2023 and then I'm going to get into some

specific stocks that could potentially

benefit from this this is wild so as

usual we're going to go to E

e.com ec.com household savings and

pricing power what do we have here

stocks have room to run with consumers

relaxed about savings wait that's weird

because we've regularly been hearing

about excess savings running out well

Bloomberg has three responses to that

argument they say number one by some

measures excess savings remain around

900 billion dollar and remember before

the pandemic we all had zero excess

savings so any dollar of excess savings

we have today is extra money now the

savings rate is just 4.1% today but

Bloomberg actually flips this argument

on its head see a lot of bears have been

looking at this and I've actually seen

it as a bearish argument as well

suggesting man that savings rate is low

or people stressed out with all-time

high levels of debt Bloomberg argues

well you know there is a chance people

could just have more cash available and

then save less as a result that in other

words spend more of their new money

coming in because they've got plenty now

let's be clear about this like I

starting to choke cuz it's kind of like

whoa whoa whoa that is going to piss off

a lot of people yeah especially people

making probably in the bottom 40 to 50%

threshold of incomes absolutely that is

going to piss a lot of people off who

are frustrated at quite frankly higher

restaurant costs and grocery costs and

things cost everything's more expensive

but just because people are frustrated

by that does that change the fact that

maybe that upper 60% has more cash than

they've ever had before it's once again

welcome to America the place where the

rich get richer in fact specifically

targeting the rich Bloomberg provides

rationale number three homeowners are in

particularly good shape with household

wealth in real estate assets at a record

and so here I respond and said wow this

is actually really interesting

perspective because it's the interest

the opposite of what we saw in 2023 you

know in 2023 we were all on about oh

student loan repayments are going to

come due household savings will run out

and consumers will spend uh you know

consumer spending will essentially crash

yet that's flipped you know now we have

upper echelons with more cash which I

argued when I covered Nike's earnings

that that's actually going to

potentially lead wealthier

consumers to see benefits from their

stocks and real estate's going up

leading to more spending where wealthier

consumers spend but the question is

where do wealthier consumers spend well

when we look at ec.com I actually broke

this down in my opinion in my opinion

wealthier consumers homeowners remember

homeowners have like 20 times the net

worth of a tenant we covered this uh

many times before on the YouTube channel

but you can also just click on the link

that I have right here which brings you

to uh a a piece that actually right now

is a little bit old oh it's a New York

Times magazine piece Daren it it's

behind a pay well uh but anyway uh it

essentially just breaks down household

net worth comparisons and I know some

people don't like the nyt but they data

is probably still accurate in this realm

I've seen this Co cooperated in other

places as well so the question now is

where do home owners spend money versus

maybe the bottom 40 or 50% who don't own

homes remember about 42% of America

Rents now there are also some higher

income individuals who rent so let's be

clear about that but anyway look at this

home Improvement in my opinion this this

is all my opinion in my opinion

homeowners or people with substantially

more net worth today are going to spend

money on Home Improvement so think

Lowe's Home Depot think solar nase solar

Edge Tesla think cars rivan Tesla think

Apple products think business startups

think ubiquity think Restoration

Hardware for ripoff furniture with

massive like 40% gross margins like I

can I could hate the product but like

the stock see like I I I know people are

like oh Kevin you recommended a firm I

did back in the Bull Run I'm like I hate

buying out pay later I don't think you

should ever use it but if you're going

to use it it's there uh and and I

thought the stock was great during

non-recessionary times and then of

course I sold it going into a

recessionary time now it's booming again

as we're potentially coming out of a

recessionary time right but the point is

the U Point here is specifically around

you can like Restoration Hardware stock

and you could like 40% margins on ripoff

furniture and not want to buy the

product don't get me wrong I walk into

Restoration Hardware and I I look at the

furniture when I touch it I feel it I go

these bastards are

brilliant they sell lumber in funky

designs to people that ripoff prices you

spend 10 grand on a desk they make

$4,000 come on man that's the business I

want to run I want to sell ripoff

Furniture then again see I'd rather have

a win-win business that RI people off

but that's the thing Restoration

Hardware has created this mentality in

buyers that you're not actually getting

ripped off that you're getting quality

right because spending $100 on a desk

versus $10,000 on a desk clearly means

you're getting 100x the quality no

obviously not anyway read their last

earnings call it's fantastic RVs pets

all of these things are things that

homeowners spend money on notice what

people don't spend money on with their

homeowners you might be surprised to

hear it but Nvidia chips clothing

Staples like Costco Walmart Target none

of those things benefit from rich people

having more money and and when I say

rich I you know people get offended by

that I just mean wealthier okay so like

if you're not in the bottom 40% you are

wealthier than that other 40% but that

doesn't make you rich right okay

whatever

semantics so I wrote some other

considerations here at ec.com uh one of

the most important ones that I saw is

that Carnival Cruise Line see stable

demand in Q4 now they're still

underperforming inflation but this is a

leading indicator of consumers being

willing to spend more money this is

incredibly important and highly

understated I am looking for Bare

arguments every single day and I will

provide them to you again the biggest

bare arguments right now I'm not trying

to be perable like I'm I'm a big fan of

what came first the chicken or the egg

well what came first was my analysis and

then I allocated to Tech and chips now

I'm probably misbalanced heavily to Tech

chips and energy actually if you include

n

phase that means I'm underweight

Restoration Hardware RVs and pets uh and

and including Home Improvement and I

think that actually deserves further

evaluation you know maybe I'm missing an

opportunity in some of those sectors and

I'm always trying to look ahead like I'm

not trying to see what did well last

year I'm trying to think about what's

going to do well going forward and I

personally don't see a real estate Crow

I mean look we get an inventory Spike

every single spring but who says this

inventory Spike this year is going to be

substantially more dramatic than any

prior years I do think there is going to

be excess inventory this spring I think

there is a like inventory was low in

October and November I could buy deals

all day long inventory is like

non-existent in around Christmas I'm

like man I was hoping to see some more

distressed deals but they will come just

wait until January and Feb they'll start

flooding out flooding the markets again

it's very normal the real estate market

is surprisingly emotional in the short

term if you could graph it it would it

would look just like the stock market

it's pretty remarkable but you can't

graph it so anyway I find all of this

incredibly fascinating because it's a

perspective that even as people who are

more bullishly positioned I have not

considered this idea of household netw

worth potentially actually leading to

the next Bull cycle but beyond this

consider this what happened when we get

back to a refinancing or HELOC cycle I

mean consider that people who owned real

estate have probably paid down principal

of about let's say $1,000 a month so

that's $36,000 of principal pay down

over the last 3 years well that's extra

money they could tap into if they want

to go refinance where does that money go

well in my opinion stocks boats RVs Home

Improvement I mean do your own research

like where do people spend money right

and and I'll research this as well and

I'll post more updates on ec.com free

forever uh what's not free forever you

already know this I've got a bunch of

new lectures dropping for the gold

course courses on building your wealth

over at me kevin.com and we're going to

raise the price January 1 going into

2024 so if you've got any questions

email us at staff atm.com uh but eack is

is sort of our free news platform and

and really it's it has been such an

incredible tool for me just to be able

to refer to some of my other thoughts

like I love the fact that I could write

a piece today and then I could go oh

yeah what did I say about Nike Click

Boom there's exactly what I wrote about

Nike it's right there it's it's like the

coolest database uh ever of of financial

research and and I don't even have to

click around I mean I guess I did just

click a link but it's all technically

one giant page I wonder when that's

actually going to create loading issues

so far it hasn't maybe because it's

cashed and I have to clear the cash when

I update that's okay so anyway

yeah hey um thank you thank you so much

for all of your support I love you all

and boy I might be mispositioned here

but uh this is very interesting and I'm

looking for more bearish arguments oh

yeah quickly what are the bearish

arguments number one 10 to yield curve

okay I always want to give the bearish

side uh as as little of one and I'm

concerned when the Bears are

flip-flopping that's usually a sign at

the top it makes me nervous you know

Mike Wilson again he always he always

becomes bullish when you're at the top

he did it this summer too you know in

July we 45 basis points inverted q1

earnings around the corner I don't know

man if guidance is bad it's going to

suck why not advertise these things that

you told us here I feel like nobody else

knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin P there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always wait to get

your

take even though I'm a licensed

financial adviser real estate broker and

becoming a stock broker this video is

neither personalized Financial advice

nor real estate advice for you it is not

tax legal or otherwise personalized

advice tailor to you this video provides

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this video is not and shall never be

deemed reasonably sufficient information

for the purpose of evaluating a security

or investment decision any links or

promoted products are either paid

affiliations or products or Services

which we may benefit from I personally

operate and actively managed ETF and

hold long positions in various

Securities potentially including those

mentioned in this video however I have

no relationship to any issuers other

than house act nor am I presently acting

as a market

maker