Bitcoin vs Gold: The Hidden Rotation Signal Most Investors Miss

Let's take a look at the data. And what

you're looking at this chart is not just

two price lines. It's a timeline of

capital rotation. It's it's a map of

risk appetite.

It's where money moves from safety into

speculation. So once you understand how

to read this chart, you're not going to

see Bitcoin or gold the same way again.

First orientation across the bottom you

see time

from 2015 all the way to 2026.

The left side you see Bitcoin priced in

US dollar.

It it says Bitcoin price in US dollar

from

from zero to a million. I think it stops

at kind of 100,000

and uh and it's a it's a log scale. Look

into it to see what it is, but basically

it

helps everything. It helps you read the

charts better. So what does that mean in

simple terms? It means equal vertical

moves represent equal percentage

changes, not equal dollar changes.

For example, if you move from from a

thousand to 10,000. It looks

in height to move of 10,000 to 100,000.

It helps compare. So let us compare

massive moves over time without the

early years looking flat

because it didn't move much while the

other end it moved by huge amount but

yet it's a it's a relative

uh type of view. So on the right side

you see gold prices in US dollars.

So on the right you have the gold

prices, on the left you have the Bitcoin

prices

and um so we have orange line is

Bitcoin, yellow line is gold. Okay,

let's zoom in and see what's going on.

So let's take a look at gold 2016.

Look at early 2016

and you could see that uh

gold moves first.

The yellow line in gold starts to move

in 2016, right? So the yellow line at

the bottom

and um Bitcoin is still flat.

Then about five months later, Bitcoin

wakes up as you could see

slowly but surely.

And uh and then it just doesn't wakes

up.

It explodes, you know, almost $10,000.

We go from the $500 to $10,000. Gold

really doesn't do much of anything.

Bitcoins begins what you call a

parabolic move in early in the mid 2016

climbing from $600, believe it or not,

to nearly $20,000 by late 2017. That's a

30 times move. Now, pause. Gold boost

first, Bitcoin followed.

That is not a coincidence. That is a

rotation. Capital moved into safety

first, which is gold.

Then confidence build then liquidity

expanded and then risk appetite search

and then Bitcoin went vertical.

Gold was the early signal

and and the reason I'm saying that is

look you see where it's c the circle on

the yellow line

that moved first and then Bitcoin went

in

a little detail there.

That's rotation.

So go with the early signal and Bitcoin

with the amplification

and uh that's always important. Now look

at the 2018 to 2019.

The gold begins rallying again after 3

months later. Bitcoin follows in early

2019. again gold leads and Bitcoin

responds and then COVID hits.

Of course, unfortunately because of that

2020

uh the both trends gets disrupted. But

notice something critical.

The pattern isn't random, it's

sequential. Look what happens in

postcoid.

Same setup. Look at 2020,

the third circle in 2021.

Gold move first,

then takes the baton and it runs from

10,000. Now we go to 69,000 over the

next 14 months.

Gold peak first and Bitcoin exploded

later. This pattern repeats three times

on this chart. Gold move first and

Bitcoin lines. That's a structural move.

So what does this mean really? Well,

gold represents caution and Bitcoin

represents risk.

Gold

gold is defensive capital. Bitcoin is

aggressive capital.

go responds to monetary easing

meaning that uh the the government

um

it the the government acts on interest

rates right and Bitcoin is volatile and

explosive

so uh when gold starts moving it often

signals currency concern

inflation fear here. Now, how do you

fight inflation? Well, you raise

interest rates, real rate pressure and

monetary shift. When Bitcoin follows, it

signals liquidity overflow, risk

appetite. People are not scared. They

want to spend money and speculative

momentum.

Bitcoin's usually gold likes the match

and and and Bitcoin becomes the fire.

Now, look at the right side of the

chart. 2024

to 2026 all the way to the right. Gold

is surging. It's breaking out. Strong

momentum, strong slope, clear

acceleration. No, but I mean gold

is up is above $5,000 today.

uh even after the huge drop that

everybody talked about year to year to

year year to date is up 16% on the

monthly basis is up 9% and today is up

248%.

So again, gold is surging. It's breaking

out. Strong momentum, strong slope,

clear acceleration. Bitcoin, it's

rising, but not in the same exo

explosive way that we saw before.

It's kind of dropping, but it's not

happening. This is an this this raised

an important question. Is gold leading

again?

But Bitcoin is not rising in the same

explosive way that we saw before.

So if history rhymes, does Bitcoin

follow with a delay surge?

Let's try to understand the structure.

There's a twist though.

Patterns don't repeat exactly. The

markets adapt and because everybody

knows what I already tell you now.

They're already adapting to the

situation. and liquidity conditions

change, regulation changes,

institutional access changes, ETF flows

change.

Bitcoin today is not the Bitcoin of

2016. Gold today is not the gold of

2016, but human behavior that doesn't

change much. Fear, safety, confidence,

risk, this chart is really a

psychological chart. So what is a macro

layer? You know why does gold move

first? Well, because when real yields

fall or central banks ease or

geopolitction, the geopolitical tension

rises, gold reacts to uncertainty

and Bitcoin reacts to risk and

liquidity.

So, let's be very clear. Um, this is

just purely education. Try to understand

what happened, right?

not a prediction. Anybody can

consistently

predict the market, but we're better off

understanding risk than chasing

forecasts.

Would there be a black swan hidden?

Well, always a sudden liquidity event, a

regulatory shock, a bank freeze.

So, what to watch going forward? Well,

if gold continues accelerating,

watch for increasing Bitcoin volatility,

sudden breakout structures, expanding

retail interest, liquidity expansions.

If gold falls and stalls, uh, Bitcoin

may struggle to sustain the momentum

here, I think. And so, what is a deeper

lesson? This chart teaches three big

lessons. One, markets move in sequence.

Two, liquidity drives risk assets. And

three, psychology drives

liquidity. So, don't forget to

subscribe. This is about education, not

hype. Become a member. There we go

deeper. And obviously, you know, we we

go through names of the stuff that I'm

buying and selling. Uh and again uh take

a look at one of those black swan books

uh because they will help you understand

what risk is about.