The Fed Pivot, Israel & Palestine's WW3, and Tesla | Bottom Line Report [E.15]

Tesla reports today and Jerome Powell's

probably going to give us a good little

lesson on interest rates tomorrow buckle

up for what to expect tomorrow as well

as with Tesla earnings later today but

first updates on Israel right now the

Biden Administration is suggesting that

quote the other team not Israel was

responsible for the attack on the

hospital in the Gaza Strip wherein

Palestine alleges at least 500

individuals

died ultimately no matter who is

responsible the more war goes on the

more terror there is apparently Israel's

IDF just reported that two Palestinians

were killed after protests in the West

Bank there is concern that if more of

this conflict spreads now to the west

bank and to Northern Israel this

conflict expands and then the United

States has to get involved as more

conflicts grow with Israel and Hezbollah

the the same time as Israel is then

overwhelmed from multiple different

angles that is one idea a lot of people

say no Israel is perfectly capable of

Defending all of their borders without

American support but let's be clear

America is still paying for all of the

defensive Weaponry there's also a rumor

that Hamas is potentially willing to

give up all of their hostages and

exchange for an end to the bombardment

of the Gaza Strip individuals suggest

that it is also forces within Palestine

that are conducting their own

bombardment so maybe they should stop

for example the missile battery or

rocket battery that potentially

contributed to the attack on the Gaza

Strip hospital yesterday was seen on

video as launching upwards of 8 to 10

different rockets in the direction of

the hospital where these Rockets

allegedly supposedly eating to vly

beyond that hospital and this is now

leading some to say that either one of

those Rock rockets misfired and ended up

hitting the hospital or maybe an air

strike or a type of cruise missile or an

interceptor missile from Israel tried

locking onto this rocket detonating this

rocket midair or at least part of it

leaving a fragment to end up hitting the

hospital that the hospital wasn't

targeted potentially from either side

and truly it was a mistake others say a

second Interceptor rocket from Israel

potentially locked on to generators heat

generat well you know electricity

generators given the lack of power uh in

the region uh and locked on to the

hospitals heat generators rather than

the Rockets heat generators and when I

say heat generators I want to be kill

for the hospital that's the purpose of

you having electricity but they also

generate a lot of heat okay so maybe an

Interceptor rocket locked onto this

instead uh and then attacked the

hospital accidentally as these Rockets C

were intended to cross over the hospital

the bottom line is nobody knows what we

do know with certainty though is that

the Islamic Jihad a group formed in 1981

and Hamas a group formed in

1987 both quite frankly Splinter cells

off of well Islamic brotherhoods in

Egypt have a goal of liberating

Palestine from the Jewish State they

don't like Israel we know that with

certainty these groups are Terror groups

and they hate Israel that does not make

everyone in Palestine evil though the

poor citizens of Palestine are just now

caught in between yet another religious

land and cultural War now here's a post

from Israel's IDF the Israeli Defense

Force they're suggesting that hey look

here's Drone footage and satellite

footage of the area and our bombs are so

good that they leave craters but as you

see here there's a sight of fire with

cars being burned and buildings intact

and no crater if we had done it there'

be a crater

but again maybe this was an interception

or who knows here's an example on the

right side of craters on the left side

no craters this is a way for Israel to

say hey look this was definitely not us

which the Pentagon and the Biden

Administration agree with again though

bottom line is in war more innocent

people lose their lives one thing that I

do think is very interesting is Donald

Trump has been very quiet on social

media about well this Hospital strike

and quite Frank L what to do this is

interesting because maybe the answer

just isn't that clearcut anybody

suggesting they have a definite

answer probably has no idea what they're

talking about I don't know that anybody

has a definite answer to ending this but

I just pray that it ends soon in the

meantime Bank of America's Institute for

analysis shows that child care costs are

now 32% higher than in 2019 apparently

the cost to raise an infant in America

is now about $ 39.2 th000

per year to raise one infant I got twins

coming this month knock on wood

apparently the cost to raise a child in

New York City has now risen to $45.49

per year making it even harder for

individuals to be convinced to have more

children which is something Elon Musk

suggests is critical for the future

success of America population growth and

more babies being born Tesla earnings

are today we're expecting 73.5 cents of

eps with $24 billion of Revenue it's

worth noting that Tesla has only beat on

Revenue five out of the eight last times

and only 50% of the time on

EPS margins here are expected to come in

at 18% I think this is going to be what

everybody pays attention to margins and

free cash flow we're knocking on the

door last time of basically no free cash

flow are we going to be well at least

relative to Prior quarters free cash

flow plummeted a lot maybe I shouldn't

say no but free cash flow substantially

declined the question is will free cash

flow go negative this quarter and will

margins be worse or better most of the

Tesla investors I talk to say you know

what I'm not here for the next quarters

I'm here for the next years if not even

the next decade so it really doesn't

matter what happens today I'll be

covering it live so either way we'll get

to react together we're expecting 18%

margin that compares to 18.2% in the

prior quarter and 19.3% before that

seven out of eight bets here are on net

income are usually positive and turn out

positive so Tesla does usually beat on

net income but when it comes to the

stock well I took a look at what Gary

black had to say about stock performance

and Tesla stock only Rises seven out of

16 times after earnings in other words

less than half of the time that doesn't

surprise me usually it seems to be we

get deliveries and there's at least some

excitement and then you get the bad news

with earnings it's kind of like you get

the good news up front and then earnings

are always the bad news anyway drum

Powell speaks tomorrow at 9:00 a.m. in

New York Morgan Stanley is reporting

that at this point everything is

pointing to a rebound and the surge in

the 10-year might actually end up

dampening the need for the Federal

Reserve to conduct two hikes in other

words the dramatic surge we've seen is

the equivalent dramatic surge in yield

is essentially the equivalent of 50

basis points worth of hikes from the

Federal Reserve the 10 gear right now is

sitting at

4.86 that's a high that is not only

local high over the last year two years

3 years 5 years 10 years it's a local

high going all the way back to the mid

2000s so I like to think about these as

local highs though and it just keeps

going up okay like 4.8 was the high now

it's 4.86 it just keeps going at the

same time oil Brent just broke $90 again

broke through that resistance at least

today now sitting at 1.28% up on the day

the concern is will it go to $100 per

barrel if you look at gold bets of pain

are ramping up gold now at 1966 the big

question is will it break 2,000 it's up

another 1.6% today some suggest that as

uh treasury yields remain higher during

this uh end of 2023 and the beginning of

2024 we could ultimately end up seeing

bets actually rise that the Federal

Reserve increases their rate Cuts sooner

although bets made on the Federal

Reserve cutting rates anytime soon have

almost always been wrong and right now

based on at least what the markets are

pricing in we're still looking at being

at least at 4.8% by December of

2024 that really only gives us about

half a percent of rate cut so while some

people are like hey maybe we'll have

higher for shorter thanks to these

higher treasury yields others are like

yeah don't bet on it now back when uh

Ukraine was invaded by Russia drum

Powell called it a quote unquote Game

Changer you kind of expect him to think

the same thing now except back then

people thought that game changer might

be oh maybe we won't raise heke rates

anymore instead it turned into hm this

could cause inflation let's raise rates

even more so we'll see what Dr Paul says

tomorrow about the Israel Invasion

that's actually going to be the big

piece of the puzzle that a lot of us are

curious about we know that Jerome Powell

and the Federal Reserve are trying to be

data dependent which is really just a

fancy way of saying we have no freaking

idea like some dat is good some dat is

bad you know we look at B what Bank of

America is saying about consumer

spending we look at what other companies

were saying about consumer spending we

look at what Bank of America analysts

are saying about uh consumer spending

here's for example an example or a

research piece here Bank of America

consumer spend Collective still no

slowdown and some specific examples CEO

of Bank of America and their earnings

call suggested earnings growth or or I

should say consumer spending growth was

somewhere around 8% at the beginning of

20123 year-over-year falling to about 4%

recently year-over-year still growth and

if you go into the granular of some of

these month-over-month numbers

specifically looking at debit card

numbers you're still seeing positive

numbers at least on the month-over-month

basis as well as the year-over-year

basis so there's this idea that maybe

the consumer is just somehow able to

keep spending despite the fact that oh

no their excess savings may eventually

evaporate but then again always remember

how much did we have in excess savings

before the pandemic

zero housing starts missed this morning

but building permits meet so beat rather

so a little bit of a plus or minus here

one thing I am am noticing on the ground

as we're looking for properties with

house Haack and we're increasing the

wedges that we're looking for right now

to insulate house Haack investors more

uh but one of the things that we're

finding is that more and more flippers

are starting to get what appears to be

reamed we're seeing massive price cuts

from flippers who got in with short-term

financing and in over their heads and

now they're trying to dump before the

winter well that's why we think November

December will be glorious anything that

doesn't get snatched up we'll be uh ripe

for picking in the winter of

2023 anyway learn more about my uh house

hack uh real estate startup house

act.com you can read the offering

circular we are accepting Investments as

low as $5,000 from non-accredited

investors at househ hack.com you can

invest with a debit card credit card a

whatever is easier for you it's all

available at house hack.com thank you so

very much for watching this bottom line

report we'll see you in the next one

goodbye can not advertise these things

that you told us here I feel like nobody

else knows about this we'll we'll try a

little advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin PA there financial analyst and

YouTuber meet Kevin always great to get

your

take