The Fed will FORCE a Depression | Prepare for -30%.

okay look if you watched my video

yesterday on the Federal Reserve you

remember that the worst pivot that we

actually got from the minutes was the

potential for a wage price spiral

today's numbers

make that potential worse

we're gonna have to get rug pulled well

folks I think the genie is out of the

bottle and the Federal Reserve is going

to have to rug pull us this is

unfortunate news for anybody who owns

equities and great news for anybody

who's shorting the market unfortunately

it seems like most of us are along the

market and this sucks attend your

treasury yield skyrocketing to over four

percent and the six month treasure yield

now sitting at 4.24 as CPI inflation

misses every single estimate to the

upside month over month was expected to

be point two percent we got point four

core month over month was expected to be

0.4 we got point six CPI year over year

was expected to go down to 8.1 we got

8.2 and core year over year in the last

report was 6.3

we thought it was going to go up to 6.5

it actually went up to 6.6 so literally

every single metric was worse now

interest rate Futures are pricing in

that the fed's terminal fed funds rate

is actually going to move up from 4.6 to

about 4.65 with swaps pricing in a 4.85

percent ending terminal rate personally

I think both of these numbers are wrong

this report today likely solidifies the

Federal Reserve is going to have to push

us all the way to a five percent rate

that means we might end up getting a one

percent hike from the FED sort of a

jumbo jumbo hike to bring us from three

point two five percent of the FED funds

rate to 4.25 then we might end up

getting a 75 basis point hike in

December as we move to five percent for

the FED funds rate this is pretty

devastating because so far there's no

sign that inflation is actually going

down as we lap higher year for year

numbers and this is the scary thing

because it means even though we think oh

once prices go up they're unlikely to go

up again right we'll just lap High

numbers and inflation will come down

naturally because we're comparing the

higher numbers right wrong every single

month now we are seeing more and more

broad-based inflation new cars are still

getting more expensive services are

still rising at a 9.6 annualized Pace

shelter inflation like housing and rent

is still rising at a 9.6 annualized Pace

this is absolutely terrible now to some

degree this is expected Shelter by the

way makes up the largest sort of weight

in our CPI measure at about 32.8 percent

on CPI a little bit less closer to 25 on

pce either way it's a huge huge chunk

and when we get this sort of huge chunk

of rent inflation we expect okay well

what drives rents going up well in part

higher rates lead to higher mortgage

rates which in the near term lead more

people to rent rather than buy creating

less demand for homes to buy which is

great for househack.com but but like

terrible for the economy and as more

people rent rather than buying well what

do you end up with you end up with more

demand for rentals so you end up getting

rent pushing up higher so this means the

Federal Reserve either has to be patient

and wait for rent inflation to rotate

down because of the concept of inertial

inflation we usually get six months of

rent pushing up and this is Nationwide

you know I know we could look to certain

areas and say oh rent's a New Yorker up

but in Phoenix they're down that's fine

but Nationwide it's rising and it's bad

because it's rising nationally we expect

to see that rise for about six months

and then we might start seeing it

falling off unfortunately that means all

of the estimates and hopes for

potentially an end of the year stock

market Rally or some kind of end to

inflation by the end of the year are

probably all dashed we're probably going

to be stuck with this terrible trashy

market today again making brand new lows

which we thought last lows were bad now

we're hitting even newer lows we're

probably going to be stuck with this

kind of a bleed out Market unfortunately

until the first part of 2023 when maybe

hopefully we actually start really

lapping the high CPI reads and we

actually start seeing lower numbers but

no guarantees because again month over

month we're seeing not only a broadening

of inflation but we're seeing inflation

rates continue to rise it blows my mind

that after a year of this we could still

have food rising at 0.8 percent shelter

at 0.8 percent and some of the core

things like transportation services up

1.5 percent while energy costs are going

down what so transportation is more

expensive while energy is going down

that's mind-blowing look at the NASDAQ

this is the NASDAQ I drew this Fibonacci

at the beginning of the morning and

unfortunately while it perfectly aligns

showing what we previously thought was

bottom of the market is actually now

just a 38.2 Fibonacci level over here at

the end of February and March we've

actually now come plummeting all the way

down to about 261.

that's before the inflation report now

we're down nearly another three percent

sitting at about

254 to 255. pretty devastating the

market is bleeding money and this wealth

effect is likely to eventually affect

real estate where real estate prices

come down and then we do believe that

the wealth effect for Real Estate owners

is substantially more impactful than the

wealth effect for stocks going down

unfortunately stocks just have to go

down first to suffer so what does this

mean well the FED is likely to have to

rug pull us and even though markets are

thinking that we'll get to a terminal

rate of around again that 4.625 or 4.65

to about 4.85 percentage

I think we're going to end up seeing the

odds of that 100 basis point or one

percent rate hike on November 2nd

explode here what the odds are right now

at the time of this recording the time

of this recording the odds for a one

percent hike are only 6.5

all of the odds for a 50 hike which used

to sit around 30 to 20 percent have been

removed and now we're sitting at either

a 100 basis point hike at 6.5 percent or

a 75 BP hike which is basically

guaranteed at this point at 93.5 percent

and when I say guarantee I mean that's

like

the minimum we're gonna get uh

December's meeting has only about a 3.7

chance that we'll actually see an upper

end of five percent but I really expect

these numbers to shift over the next few

days as markets really digest this

inflationary report and realize ah crap

this is getting worse not better the

only way to make it better is obviously

by joining the programs on building your

wealth and using that coupon code link

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beyond that we're suffering now it's

worth noting That Wall Street suits are

telling us that this is a terrible

message for Democrats with a midterm

election coming up this is the last

inflationary report before the midterm

elections there are a lot of Statistics

fortunately though if I could give you

any opium uh

you know remember hope is not an

investing strategy but if I can give you

any hopium it's the following

this right here is a chart of what

frequently happens after midterm

elections the gray kind of gives you a

bubble of the range of historical

outcomes but generally after midterm

elections we tend to see stock market

returns improve that's because when you

take the average you see it tends to

look like that blue line where you could

get anywhere between a 10 20 rise over

the next nine months thereafter that

would be wonderful now it's also worth

noting that medical services and food

and shelter in total out of the 8.2

percent headline rise contributed over

half of the rise 4.2 percent that's

because food was up 0.8 shelter was up

point eight percent and Medical Services

were also up 0.8 percent now this is

really bad because again inflation is

not just restricted to Commodities where

we blame Russia or the sanctions that

are happening it's not just restricted

to shelter where obviously we have that

temporary uh inertial inflation where we

get six months of higher shelter reads

before we actually start seeing them

come down but it's also broadening to

Medical Services which sucks because I'm

sick and I feel like I might need some

of those medical services and I'll tell

you I can't spend any more money

because I got none left this sucks so if

you're in pain I'm in pain too this

really sucks and um

all I could do is wish you the best out

there uh you know I I will say I think a

very important thing that all of us

could do right now is think to ourselves

what can we do during this terrible time

during this hellish period

of markets to make more money because

that's all we can do is focus on all

right

we got Black Friday sales and it's more

like a black year sale and it's just

going to be cheaper and easier for us to

buy stocks so let's just go out there

and make as much money as possible and

uh when we make that money

throw it into the stocks

it's actually why

sneak preview the path to wealth course

is going to have a complete remake which

is really cool because it's going to

expand a lot of things that are in it

and I'm going to give you a hint it's

going to turn into an entrepreneurial

course

uh in addition to the path to wealth

like it's gonna have both just more of

the old but also a lot of um

new content

which I'm really excited about uh of

course everybody who's already bought in

is it was will be granted into lifetime

access but I think that's so important

in this market because

this is the hardest Market to like

survive as let's say a real estate agent

but it's the best time to get started

absolutely the best time to get started

I know that's crazy to think but we're

going to look back at 2022 maybe even

2023 and go damn

all I had to do was buy as many stocks

as possible or invest in as many

businesses as possible like outside at

that bottom of the market because after

that

you know knock on wood

that set us up for retirement who knows

anyway fingers crossed thanks for

watching good luck out there we'll see

you soon bye