what the actually f**k f**k f**k!!!!!

miserable jobs report this morning. This

is not what we were expecting at all. We

were looking for 104,000 jobs and

hawkishness from Powell. Even though

Donald Trump posted on Truth this

morning that Jerome Powell is a

for not cutting rates,

he says that all the time. So, we didn't

necessarily think it was a huge signal

of anything to come for the jobs report.

Certainly not what we just got blessed

with. And I don't think it's much of a

blessing. It's actually pretty damn bad.

The only thing that's a blessing is that

the coupon code expires tonight and you

still have time to use coupon code

release the files. But here's the scoop.

We already know the headline. We were

expecting 103 104,000 depending on how

you round and what the survey is. We got

73,

which is weak, but it's only weak by one

standard deviation. But that wasn't the

kiss of death. That wasn't the shocker.

That wasn't what made us go, "What the

hell?" It was the revisions. We lost

258,000 jobs in May and June. Gone,

evaporated. Last month, we were talking

about the June report. Oh, strong

report. 147,000 jobs. But when we looked

at the details, you remember because you

watch this channel, you remember me

saying just be careful. Only 14,000

private payroll jobs were created last

month. 14,000 were created. And we knew

that last month out of that 147. That's

because we had a big number on

government and health care and and some

of these other sectors. Only 14,000

private payroll jobs last month outside

of those sectors, government and

healthcare. Well, now we literally

revised the entire report down to 14,000

for last month. Over the last two month,

over the last two months, we had

negative 258,000

jobs and revisions. And this comes

before the quarterly revisions via the

QCEW, which usually take off even more

jobs. We are now at the slowest pace of

job gains since last August, which was

right before the uh September meeting

where the Federal Reserve cut bates 50

basis points. We might now be setting up

for a 50 basis point cut this September.

That'll make it that'll be a game

changer for House Act fundraising

because we'll probably end that much

sooner than we thought. We'll have to

talk to the board about it. But anyway,

remember if you want to invest, go

house.com, read the solicitation. The

private sector added just 52,000 jobs on

average over the last 3 months. Over the

last like 6 months, JPAL's been bragging

about how the threemonth average gains

in jobs has been really great in the

mid50,000

range. Now it's just 52k thou uh 52k on

average over the last 3 months. In

August of 2024, we were at 46,000. Then

we panic cut 50 basis points. This is

we're like literally repeating what

happened last year. The unemployment

rate moved up to 4.248%.

Which initially looked like we just went

up one/tenth of a basis point of

1/10enth of a percent rather about 10

bips. But we actually moved up more than

that. We moved up to basically 4.25 25

and that's with labor force

participation falling. So maybe this is

why JPAL gave us that warning. Hey, pay

attention to the unemployment rate.

That's what we're going to be looking at

because the unemployment rate just moved

up while at the same time the

participation rate is falling, which is

really weird. Participation rate is

either plummeting, which you can see

right here, from 62.7 last year to 62.4

in May to 62.3 in June to 62.2 in July.

This is either happening because of like

the ICE raids and people are wanting to

stay home or

this is like people are literally just

getting squeezed out of the labor market

because the labor market is not doing so

well. Now, a weird thing that happens

when the participation rate falls, you

actually mask a higher unemployment

rate. If the participation rate were the

same rate and more people were

unemployed, the unemployment rate would

be skyrocketing right now. So the only

reason it's not skyrocketing is because

of that participation rate falling. This

is where JPAW kind of gave us this hey

like there's less hiring but there are

also fewer people in the labor force. So

like does that balance out? We don't

know. Like he kind of was giving us a

hint of this report coming but these

revisions were way nastier than anybody

expected. Uh and so as a result, we now

see the 102 spread back to 49 almost 050

shock level. We actually looks like hit

050 right here. Uh and this this is

despite things chilling out over the

last two weeks. People were very

comfortable. Hey, the economy is doing

better. Things are doing good. But this

is starting to be an indicator that

we're getting real cracks now in the

labor market, which is the last leg

holding this economy up. Frankly, if you

really want to know what the real last

leg is that's holding the economy up,

it's the lack of layoffs that we're

seeing. Once we start seeing layoffs,

it's over. We're in a deep dark

recession that could take a long time to

get out of because AI is going to keep

the boot on this labor market and it's

going like I'm not trying to bear I'm

trying to just give you a very realistic

heads up. We're at the top of the market

right now. Okay? I'm not here to be a

bear. I'm just here to say, oh, here it

is. Look, the QCEW comes out uh

September 9th. See, preliminary

benchmark revision to establishment data

comes out September 9th. So, we're still

a month away from the QCW revisions.

Yeah. And and we got a negative 258 now.

That's insane. Uh you know, you can see

the 258 right here, which is crazy. But

anyway,

you know, add layoffs to this. If it

starts becoming socially acceptable for

for companies to lay off, rates are

going to plummet. But that's not going

to save the day. Yes, currently the

stock market in and uh futures are

pricing in now a it keeps going up. We

are now pricing in an 85.5%

chance of a cut in September

and uh a 50% chance of a second cut in

October. We are now fully pricing in two

rate cuts for the year. This was a

gamecher report. Uh holy smokes, man.

uh without health care the last 3 months

of payroll would be553,000gative

-45,000gative -300

we should have cut

this is why like I'm kind of surprised

JP

was so hawkish I mean it sounds like he

knew some of these components I don't

know if he knew these revisions but man

government payroll now down six straight

months odds of a September rate cut now

again uh they just revised again. Yeah,

86.5%. Okay, that was just a flash of

86.5%. Now, that was from the mid40s

after Powell's hawking just 2 days ago.

But this this is actually a sign that

Powell is indeed earning his nickname,

Mr. Too Late. Uh Nick T tweeted that

Bowman this morning told us uh that uh

here it is. Bowman explains her descent

in favor of rate cut. Economic

conditions are shifting. I see the risk

that a delay in action could result in a

deterioration in the labor market and a

further slowing in economic growth.

Taking a proactive approach in moving

closer to neutral would avoid an

unnecessary erosion of labor market.

Remember folks, rate cuts don't stop job

cuts. Rate cuts don't do it. Money

printing does. But we're we're far ways

out from the money printer. And so we

really got to hope that this this shock

of a payrolls report uh isn't the

beginning of a layoff cycle because it's

it just forecasts hell. Anyway, now

we're going to jump on over to the

course member liveream. We're going to

do our alpha report together. We're

going to talk about what the play is,

the trades, the lines because this is a

crazy shocking jobs report. We got to

get into the details of it. So with that

said, thanks so much for watching. See

you. We'll be over at the course member

stream in about 2 minutes.

>> Why not advertise these things that you

told us here? I feel like nobody else

knows about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes. Congratulations, man.

You have done so much. People love you.

People look up to you.

>> Kevin Praath there, financial analyst

and YouTuber. Meet Kevin. Always great

to get your take.