Wall Street React: Replacing Joe Biden.

what does Wall Street think about the

debate that happened between Joe Biden

and Donald Trump on Thursday I always

like looking at Wall Street because they

care about where to put down money and

while this isn't a matter of where

should we invest if whatever happens we

have plenty of time to think about that

it is going to be an analysis of what

two very large institutions are reacting

to with when it comes to the debate

let's get into it first things first

Commerce Bank Biden loses TV debate

against Trump it's obvious at this point

that Biden lost it's just now a matter

of what happens from here on and this is

what they speculate on so first they say

that Biden came across a stumbling over

answers rambling and having low answers

and now it's going to fuel debate about

whether or not he's going to be able to

last another four years especially since

he's going to be 86 at the end of his

second term we also know that he's going

into this with very low popularity

during election night we went through

the gallop polls and saw that he was

pretty much in the bottom of about three

of presidents in end of basically third

and a half fourth year of presidency

it's not unpopular or I shouldn't say

that I should say it's not uncommon

rather uh for your presidential

popularity to fall over the time that

you're in presidency you're just going

to kind of keep pissing people off

that's very normal very very normal uh

except Biden is on the lower side side

of that falling level and Biden's

approval levels fall sub fell

substantially during the pull out in

Afghanistan and Commerce Bank thinks

this is important because we've got

quite a few geopolitical issues going on

now from not even being able to get

shipping done in the Red Sea China's

trying to negotiate with the houthis but

the US has its military there and we're

conducting air strikes on the houthis

but all we're kind of doing in the White

House apparently with the support for uh

you know our military over in the Red

Sea is just going well fetch me yeah I

got to work on the timing for that but

it doesn't actually seem like the White

House is really trying to solve our Red

Sea crisis and it's sort of Amplified by

the fact that now we're dealing with a

crisis between Russia and Ukraine and

Israel and Hamas in the Gaza Strip as

you can see geopolitics at least basing

this on the Afghanistan pull out are a

big deal to Americans his approval

levels or ratings changed substantially

after this

point then when we look at polls we can

see that Donald Trump has been leading

in the polls and this debate is probably

not likely to help they suggest that

Biden has only had a deficit of one to

two percentage points but that might get

worse in time and there are few reasons

for this uh but before before we hit

those let's touch on Battleground States

for Biden to actually win he's got to

win Arizona Georgia Michigan Nevada

North Carolina Pennsylvania and

Wisconsin and frankly Trump leads in all

of those the way this chart works by the

way it's kind of a cool one if you want

to take a screenshot of it is Biden

leads in the states where the bar is

under the line and Trump leads in those

where the bar is over the line as you

see they're all over the line so Biden

realistically they say here needs to win

Michigan Wisconsin and Pennsylvania uh

in addition to having success in all of

the democratic leaning States uh

so Commerce Bank believes this is going

to come down to a voter's belief

in the core

issues and which president they think

will have a greater ability to solve

problems related to those issues the

number one issue of course would be the

economic situation followed by

immigration and the Border it's almost

there's almost a consensus uh that the

economy is the number one issue now

Democrats are more concerned about

abortion uh issues or Medicare and

Social Security and ensuring Fair

elections in health care than they are

worried about immigration but

immigration and the economy are

dominating the news cycle

it's actually surprising to me how

little over here foreign relations and

the war between Israel and Hamas are

actually affecting voters perceptions

see it's all the way my little circle

there messed up all the way here on the

right uh versus uh the economy such an

issue over here on the left uh and then

of course when we get into which

candidate is deemed to be more competent

at solving the issues you could see here

Trump uh has the lead on the economy the

immigration and border security foreign

relations and handling the war with

Hamas but those Democratic issues uh

people believe that Biden is going to be

better to handle which are abortion

Medicare Social Security ensuring fair

and accurate elections and health care

so next steps theoretically it would be

possible to nominate a different

candidate that's because delegates are

not obligated to vote for Biden however

Commerce Bank thinks this is only going

to happen that is some form of flip is

only going to happen if Biden were

willing to support that new candidate

and keep in mind that Democratic party

is extremely unified and now I

personally think that might be the end

of the democratics party Unity this

election cycle but the Democratic party

is extremely United if if you know Obama

and Bill Clinton and Biden say Biden

staying then Biden stays but there is

something that could change this see if

you hop on over to what another

institution on Wall Street thinks TS

Lombard uh you see they rightfully say

that Biden stays the Democratic

Presidential nominee uh or Biden steps

aside those that's pretty obvious right

now that's almost not even worth

repeating that those are the two options

here but what is interesting is they

argue that there could be quote

potential Downstream

ramifications if fundraising continues

to drop

versus a reinvigorated trump see Trump's

fundraising

skyrocketed when he was convicted as a

felon and now after this debate

performance there's an expectation that

Biden's fundraising will plummet now

this chart is just sort of a a

prediction it's not uh an actual chart

of what's going on uh but the Biden

Administration did say that they raised

$27 million between debate day and

Friday evening and they're doing this to

say hey look see we're still raising

money everything's fine but the reality

is this is a manipulation they should be

telling us what the fundraising was

between after the debate and Friday

evening because that would capture the

difference if 99% of that money was

raised before the debate and 1% was

raised after the debate then fundraising

is going to be a massive problem for the

Biden campaign and it could amplify

their weakness as Donald Trump has more

money to get the word out and get the

vote out more so than the Biden Camp

would have money for now of course it's

also possible that the Democratic party

waits for some form of unified message

okay we're definitely going to stand

behind Biden or whatever now we need

even more money to try to make that a

success that's also possible I don't

think it's likely because I don't think

people like throwing money after some

candidate that they don't think is fit

for office and unfortunately a lot of

the vote right now for Biden is just a

vote against Trump that's okay people

can have that opinion that they don't

like Trump but a vote for Biden could

also in that case be a vote for any

other Democrat who could carry the torch

in a more reasonable manner than Joe

Biden can I'm not convinced Joe Biden

can carry a torch at all but anyway

uh right here it says crucially it will

be Biden's decision whether to stay in

or bow out right but the problem is and

I wrote this in blue here Biden thinks

he's okay that's partially because he

can't remember the bad early stages of

dementia you see dementia Come On In

Waves you can act normal you could sound

normal but when it comes to short and

long-term memory you're screwed when

you're trying to remember you get

frustrated you stumble you Mumble you

jumble up your sentences these are all

early examples of dementia taking

over and I just can't see it even being

healthy for Biden to remain in office

for even the next s months that scares

me now upcoming polls will show the

extent of damage from Biden's debate

performance and so too will fundraising

levels now this is an interesting

argument by TS law

they're basically saying hey

look it might take the Democratic party

a little bit of time to realize that

Biden's got to frankly

go the reason for that is they might be

waiting to see what polls come in at now

so far and this is all pre-debate

polling pre-debate polling shows Trump

well in excess of Biden uh in fact you

could see it a little bit easier here in

this lower section where my mouse is

where it's red just shows you the Gap

that Trump has and that Gap has been

rising going into the debate and we

don't yet have surveys after the debate

trust me this weekend there going to be

a lot of debates uh sorry a lot of polls

that are conducted uh and I wouldn't be

surprised if this line continues to

Skyrocket I actually think it could set

an absolute new high here where this

ends up moving to say off the chart here

55% versus down off the chart 35% % so a

giant plummet the reason I say that is

because that's basically exactly what

you're seeing over at the uh predicted

polls at the predicted polls you could

see Trump before the debate was sitting

at 5152 cents maybe even 55 cents which

has now gone up to 58 where Biden has

gone from 48 cents 47 cents all the way

down to 33 to 36 Cents that's a percent

of winning basically it's all based on a

dollar over at predict it.org #n

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consider this it does also look like

this Biden reluctance to drop out has

led nome's betting odds to go from 5

cents to 17 cents and right back down to

11 cents and if you throw in RFK his

betting odds really haven't moved at all

I think the only way his betting odds

could really move would be well frankly

if he switched to become a Democrat

again and and then actually got some

party support but I I I I don't think

he's going to end up doing

that uh anyway moving in over here uh TS

Lombard actually thinks that Gavin Nome

would not be the best replacement uh for

Joe Biden they actually think a better

option would be Gretchen Whitmer uh the

governor of Michigan uh but upcoming

polls will show I presumably hey which

competing uh option would you prefer if

Biden were going to step down now the

Democratic party doesn't really have a

formal process for picking a substitute

and they're doing this weird sort of

virtual roll call to nominate Biden

before for the DNC on August 19th to the

22nd part of that is because of these

Ohio rules for certifying a presidential

candidate but it's worth noting That

Wall Street so far has been making it

exceptionally clear Biden lost and now

polls and fundraising are going to

determine if he can actually survive at

all and I'm talking about in the

election or campaign

anyway let me know what you think who do

you think would be a replacement for Joe

Biden do you agree with Wall Street that

fundraising in the polls will be a very

loud and clear message that Joe Biden

needs to step down let me know your

thoughts in the comments down below why

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