Jerome Powell *JUST* Issued 3 *MAJOR WARNINGS* [Fed]

wow Jerome Powell just gave us three

warnings I have not yet heard Jerome

Powell talk about and boy oh boy we have

got to talk about these three warnings

because as po wowi was dishing them out

I was trading with the folks in the

stocks and sight group check it out over

at meetkevin.com pulled an 81% over 15

to 20K return right there during the

Powell meeting and if you want to be

part of it you want to see how I talked

about entry you want to see how I talked

about I think it's consolidating here

and it's about to bounce at time to get

out of here cuz it was short uh go check

it out uh the Discord and uh in the

community over at meetkevin.com price

will be going up on Friday so what were

the three warnings that Powell gave so I

want to start with those warnings and

then I'm going to get into the generic

stuff okay so let's start with the

warnings first drone Powell talks about

the revisions which we went into this

wondering is J pal going to talk about

the revisions and he did he talked about

how usually GDI is your best indicator

for the economy and it was diverging

from GDP where GDP was higher and gross

domestic income was lower and that was

revised up so we said that removed a

downside risk from the economy which is

good because now you know it doesn't

look like consumers are spending beyond

their means but their personal savings

rate is actually okay and they're

spending what they could be spending

without economic concern this is good

that's actually not the bad news item

but it leads into the first warning that

he gave he says right now there is a

tension though between spending and GDP

data and the labor market consider this

for a moment the Atlanta fed real now

GDP sits at uh uh you know what is it uh

3.1% which is which is remarkably

high and that's really good but the

labor market is substantially weakening

and Jerome Powell gave the first of

three warnings that I have not seen him

give before the first warning was the

labor market gives better data than

GDP in fact the labor market is better

at predicting

downturns and so there is a tension

today between strong GDP and spending

data and weaker labor market data that

was a really big warning now does end up

saying the labor market isn't right now

indicating a big downturn well no du

Po's going to say that because you know

the second Jerome Powell says hey by the

way everything's going to

sh9t then you're actually going to have

a really rapid market crash it's going

to be

terrible so of course he can't say that

of course he has to like anytime he sees

bad data he kind of has to go no no no

no no no no of course but he's giving us

a warning war in he is giving us a heads

up here and if you pay attention you'll

see all three of these warnings I mean

I'm going to signpost them for you okay

so warning one labor market gives better

data than GDP based on prior recessions

and prior downturns and right now

there's attention we have higher

spending and GDP data and worse labor

market data hm interesting okay that's

warning number one warning number two he

says look we are re-calibrating due to

strengthen the economy not weakness and

then he's asked which sounds bullish

right I mean he's HW toing us uh

and he's asked did the 50 basis point

cut increase your confidence in a soft

Landing now the answer here by default

should be yes I mean it increased my

thoughts of a soft Landing I'm like if

they're going to move fast on 50 BPS

let's go soft Landing by the dip f it

let's go they're going to cut rates to

preserve a soft Landing but that was

actually

not what Jerome Powell did I'm going to

try to reenact it here I'm going to suck

at it but short of actually pulling up

the video he's asked did the 50bp cut

increase your confidence of a soft

Landing uh the cut reflects our optimism

on 2%

inflation

what what that's scary okay when you

combine that with him saying the labor

market data is more important to the

fate of the economy right now than JDP

and the labor market data is weakening

and did it increase your confidence in a

soft Landing it increases our confidence

on

inflation oh hello that was like the

biggest second warning I could have ever

freaking seen right here from japal and

I don't know that markets are paying

attention to this uh but we'll talk

markets and some of the other things

that were said in just a moment but the

warning number one labor market is more

important than GDP number two do you

have increased optimism in soft ltic oh

that was weird that was it was just

weird maybe we'll pull it up towards the

end of this video and the third one okay

we got to talk about the third one I

just do want to mention

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these events is going on what's Kevin

trading you could see it too no

guarantees obviously we can we could

only make money there there's that's

impossible there are going to be red

times there are going to be red days uh

and I try to share those on the channel

as well but anyway let's focus on the

third warning the third warning is that

labor market Market revisions were only

through March a lot of people may not

have been paying attention to this but

maybe this will ring a bell for you

remember when he talked about the qcw

revisions Ah that's called the quarterly

census of employment and wages and it is

a revisions adjustment the qcw only

revised the labor market through

March okay well what about April May

June June July August and September we

don't have revisions for those 6 months

yet is that six uh five we don't have

revisions for those months yet and so

these are three really big warnings from

Powell now what else did he say well

some other things that he said were uh

many indicators show that the labor

market is presently solid right this is

an important thing to remember is right

now the trajectory is down okay let's

say this is a solid labor market where

my hand hand is and this is the

trajectory take a picture you take a

picture right here and you're like H

it's actually pretty good right now I'll

read off what JP said unemployment rate

within range of natural rate prime age

workers near historic High women's

participation rate near all-time Highs

real wages increasing in line with gains

in productivity we've never heard him

read that crap off ever he's never

talked about women's particip a rate

come on folks he's never talked about

this trash it's like he's lying through

his teeth to try to make to to convince

us that everything's fine but it's CU

they're taking a snapshot like this well

unless they create a floor which I don't

think they're going to be able to with a

50 BP cut that's lagging especially

since the higher end of the yield curve

is going up and you're seeing more

inversion today than you've seen before

I think we're at like 14 basis points

inverted right now there's not actually

a floor there so there's the entire

potential of the labor Market continue

and

go and then you're in recession so I

mean look my opinion is much like what J

house says is just watch the next two

labor reports if we get 140 140 on the

labor reports okay maybe we've

stabilized maybe we have found a floor

if we get 130 120 100 okay we're not

stabilizing

we're and it's bad you know if we start

getting uh 150 160 170 then it's a sign

that we're going

that was a close one I me like that's

that's basically what Powell's like he's

like he's like a little kid playing with

his hands right now uh job openings

moving down but just above one again

that's the snapshot that was rarely the

case prior to 2019 labor markets have

cooled we do not believe we need any

further labor market cooling inflation

expectations remain anchored the economy

is solid goal is to restore price

stability economic conditions set the

table for further easing the goal in the

past uh you know over the past few years

has been get inflation down without a

painful rise in unemployment and so far

we've been able to accomplish that that

is a form of declaring Victory which is

dangerous though because you might start

creating some oopsy dupsies here on jobs

if the economy evolves broadly as

expected we will move towards neutral

that actually LED uh yields to move up

because pal started suggesting that hey

you know if you look at the SCP people

were pricing in basically 25 and 25 left

and so

uh it might even mean we skip a meeting

that was hawkish so you had markets

briefly sell off you had yields go up

you had some turl tumult over there in

markets for a moment but the reality is

if you look at the three big warnings

drum Powell gave all all this stuff

about the summary of economic

projections doesn't matter he himself

tells you that it's not the summary of

economic projections that matters it's

the incoming data that matters and the

incoming data that we get in the next

jobs report the next CPI report and the

next job job's report all before the FED

Meeting those are going to matter the

most and so you really need to mark your

calendar for what's coming up over here

if you have not done yet so please mark

your calendar for this right now it is

it is critically important okay do this

now okay that was like very untimely and

kind of late but whatever w

jilt data comes out tomorrow at 7:00

a.m. California time along with

construction spending month over month

S&P Global us manufacturing pmis come

out tomorrow at 6:45 California time

I'll be streaming live on the meet Kevin

Market live Channel where you can see me

for free Yap about the market in the

morning tomorrow at 7: a.m. we will also

get ISM Manufacturing and prices paid

prices paid are expected to be expanding

at 53.5 with manufacturing expected to

be in contraction below 50 at 47.5 that

would be a slight uptick actually on

manufacturing from the prior read in a

slight downtick on prices page which

would actually be good if we actually

got those

numbers on Wednesday we expect the ADP

employment report to come in at 125

which would actually be an uptick from

the 99 in the prior report on Thursday

we expect initial jobless claims at 222

and continuing claims at 1830 both of

these numbers relatively stable though

remember continuing claims and joess

claims tend to lag then uh we will also

get ISM Services uh index at 51.6 and

price is paid at

56.5 uh both uh well price is paid

decelerating a little bit on the

forecast and the overall index

accelerating on10th of a basis one/

tenth of a percent so not a big deal

then on Friday which is 104 October 4th

that is a coupon expiration day at 11:59

p.m. we will be raising the price of the

course again I do raise the price as

more people get into the course and we

add value over time including the full

archive you get of course member live

streams the change in non-farm payrolls

is expected to come in at 150,000 jobs

that is actually higher than the prior

release of 142,000 obviously we expect

both of those numbers to be rigged and

we'll expect to see a nice bloop

revision down but if the trend is up on

the monthly figure at least that would

be an indication of better so if we get

something like south of 130 markets are

going to get really pissed and start

pricing in recession again if we get a

beat and we get something like 160

170 well markets might actually be very

euphoric and you might see yields move

higher expecting the unemployment rate

to remain stable at 4.2% expecting

average hourly earnings to come in on a

month over month AT3 a slight

deceleration from last month's point4 so

that's the data coming up uh and I think

it's kind of important to watch some of

that data uh okay cool everybody's all

right uh yeah we use these radios by the

way I got radios all over the place but

it's mostly because when my team hits me

up and they're like hey we got a course

member with a question or we got a you

know uh you know client for stock hack

with a financial advisory question or

somebody wants to sign up but they have

a question or whatever my team can ping

me but they also ping each other on here

and I just pay attention uh so anyway uh

okay so let me quickly see inversion

right now is that true are we at 14

basis points only of uninverted that's

pretty low checking checking ah

14.82% course blah blah blah I'm

actually surprised you don't have the

suits pointing out the three warnings

that I gave uh wealth of talent

collecting data blah blah blah blah blah

I thought those three warnings were

crystal clear

but you know I don't I don't think uh

the soo see it but I mean I thought it

was blatantly obvious labor market gets

better data than GDP and the labor

market is weakening uh then we

had okay come on uh then we had uh did

the 50 BP increase your confidence of

soft Landing big pause that was awkward

okay very awkward uh and then of course

the uh we don't have the revisions yet

on the qcw which is also a warning

because you know we really need to know

what's been happening over the last uh

few uh few months here so uh very

important uh let me see if I can get the

uh Powell's reaction there we'll briefly

look I don't know if I'll be able to

find

it because it's probably just going to

take too long to get it but uh I should

have marked it oh well uh yeah I don't

think I'll be able to get it uh

I remember kind of what he looked like

in it he sort of looked

down but you know that happens a

lot so it's it's not going to be very

clear where it is let's see what

comments people

have uh khed says Kevin is shorting uh

no I'm not you're a liar and a scumbag

uh I have I have

literally no short exposure with the

exception of a tiny tiny short Bitcoin

exposure which is actually doing really

well today uh so you know I I I think

people think when I'm a bear that I'm

shorting I'm not you I shorted for like

10 minutes with a put option because

there was a trade opportunity somebody

says not impressed by the walkie-talkies

I don't really care what you're

impressed by or not uh so it doesn't

really matter so what do you guys

thinking about BTC price remember BTC is

a risk asset so it's going to move with

risk assets let me see if this is the

part and and um uh uh sound data sets

just saying a level to ensure um no

where if only I could find you're just

going to probably have to just s of roll

with me on that I suppose somebody could

go through it themselves time of of um

of a lot of trade issues and it was it

was yeah geopolitical yeah it take too

long to find it uh but anyway let me

look at some other commentary here just

because I want to include this here uh

let's see

here uh the strike you should see my

video this morning on the strike

employment data is flat or good I'm

flipping bullish by Friday says Jeremiah

yeah uh hey you know what if the

unemployment data starts moving up

that's

great Kevin you just insulted a lot of

women by saying the commo women's job

participation is crap that's okay you're

totally taking out of context what I

said and it's like honestly scummy to

take it out of context like that I'm

saying Powell is listing a bunch of crap

that he's never talked about before to

try to make it seem like everything is

okay and it's not this is not a comment

about women how stupid do you have to be

to think that I was making a comment

about women you're taking something out

of context and you're a numbnut for even

suggesting that this the stupidest thing

I've ever heard do you think I'm here to

like I'm the biggest supporter of women

ever uh freaking loser

um so anyway contr F the trans

transcript's not out yet uh let's see

here what's your reasoning behind BTC

short well it's it's really just a

recessionary hedge right like it's a

tiny tiny tiny position and uh there

there are a few ways to hedge for a

recession you could go long bonds uh and

then you could short risk assets uh I

think that uh Bitcoin is stuck in a

pattern of hitting lower highs so I

think the downside to a short BTC is

somewhat low until we get confirmation

that there's no recession and then of

course you need to remove shorts right

away right but I I basically don't uh

you know uh uh think shorting broadly is

a really good strategy right

now uh let's see

here Israel tank just rolled into

Southern Lebanon thank you for saying

that uh yeah that's that's not good the

geopolitical iions are just are just

continuing to rise uh and it's very bad

unfortunately uh but uh you know that's

that's what you get uh with uh mess with

Israel right

so somebody here says I know great

analysis on everything ke going

yeah uh let's see

here how much of this was because he

knows the data in the next two weeks

it's possible he does know

uh that that is something else to

consider is it is possible that jpw does

know that we're about to get some weak

data and that's why he just three times

gave us a very clear labor market

warning uh and uh and I think that's uh

uh it's it's worth paying attention to

snowflakes melting fast in the

chat Tesla under 200 in the near term

your opinion Kevin um you really need a

broader market movement to the downside

I do think if you have a a recession uh

Tesla probably does get hurt very

substantially uh and its valuation is

extremely high right now so uh yeah you

have to be a little cautious about

that uh

so just takes one incident for

geopolitics to get out of hand this is

true you really you just have to watch

Iran uh that's that's definitely an

issue a thank you Patel appreciate

that any videos about the Tesla 1010

event coming up yes I will uh I will uh

make a 10 10 video somebody here says

Kevin needs to drink more black coffee

to increase his manhood what do you

think this is huh it's all black coffee

in there can I show it to you without

spilling it all over my

desk there it is you can see a little

bit there with without me spilling black

coffee baby black I like it black

m I actually don't it's pretty

disgusting but I'm on a challenge so I

cut out the milk I know it's pretty

lame pretty lame all right so I think

that's pretty good how is the alcohol

free challenge gun honestly pretty well

uh I'll give you like a really for for

those of you who are still here I'll

give you quick

synopsis uh of how I feel about that cuz

I wrote it down yesterday because a good

buddy of mine asked me about it so what

I wrote is mornings are much easier I

could wake up earlier substantially more

easily I uh number one number two

ironically my anxiety is lower I used to

like drinking to lower my anxiety but

now I just don't have the anxiety in the

first

place uh number three it mentally feels

like I'm contributing to my weight

challenge it's also physiologically

true uh I also know it's very powerful

optically for the

children uh and then uh uh and then also

just like business uh optic wise and

career optic wise uh very very important

so yeah anyway uh I appreciate yall uh

what is this here Head and Shoulders on

the weekly most of you are woke Bots

says somebody in the chat

okay let me see here oh dude I was

literally just going to go to QQQ to

look on the week chat and rather than

writing in QQQ I wrote

woke I got an

error uh this is uh I don't know I don't

know what what chart you're looking

at looks a little messy a little

messy uh anyway y all pretty funny

pretty funny oil plays at these levels

would you touch leverag plays I

generally don't like leverag plays

because they keep you in a hole I'd

rather go for non-leveraged and then buy

an option because like I can calculate

Theta Decay but but the triple leveraged

on volatility is just a bad idea but uh

yeah I mean if you get an Iranian

retaliation oil oil you know might see a

spike but then there are also

recessionary concerns you have to

balance that with because if you go into

recession oil goes down so it's there's

not a clear Direction on oil which makes

it less desirable for me whereas if

there are geopolitical risks that could

potentially cause a recession long bonds

will go down or long bonds will go up in

value uh and a recession will lead long

bonds up in value if there's a

stagflationary concern gold goes up if

there's no stagflation no inflation and

we don't go into recession well then you

just want to be like you know growth

stocks like NASDAQ uh to the Moon right

and and Bitcoin honestly will do really

well uh so somebody here says Henry says

Kevin chill my man there's always going

to be idiots saying idiotic things on

message boards just skip over those

don't let it boil blood what are you

trying to say Henry I'm just kidding I

appreciate you I I I do I I uh I do uh

sometimes uh let the com I I just I

treat every comment as a human and and

uh it's bad because that it it can it

can affect the psyche uh anyway uh again

shout out to those of you joining the

stocks and sight group and the courses

on building your wealth thank you so

much for those of you who support go

check it out at me kevin.com you pay

once you get lifetime access uh also

post on the August 2nd live stream and I

will give you a wrench so you get a

wrench in these uh public chats thank

you so much we'll see you in the next

one goodbye everyone we love you bye can

not advertise these things that you told

us here I feel like nobody else knows

about this we'll we'll try a little

advertising and see how it goes

congratulations man you have done so

much people love you people look up to

you Kevin paffrath there financial

analyst and YouTuber meet Kevin always

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