well rip

Well, Jerome Powell just spoke and

markets are pissed. There's a really

simple reason why markets are pissed and

we're going to explain not just what uh

Mr. Powell said, but why the cues might

be slipping, why potentially uh we're

seeing this sort of downtrend that we've

been seeing on Bitcoin. We'll touch on

that as well. uh but also why uh we're

seeing yields stabilize around that

4.15410

to 415 level. What's going on? We were

as low as 4% last week during the Fed

meeting. Well, remember quick recap.

Last week during the Fed meeting, we

said that if Powell was neutral, we

would end up seeing Treasury yields move

from 4 to 4.15, which is exactly what

happened today. Powell was unbburdened

by what has been. See, when Powell

speaks at the FOMC, he has to provide

consensus and show that, hey, we're all

working together here. So, he really

tries to give you the view of everybody

on the committee. Today was an

opportunity for Powell to give you the

unvarnished version of his own view.

Kind of like how Myin or the others go

on CNBC and talk. This was an

opportunity for Powell to give us his

own view. And there was a hope that

Powell would reveal his dovish true

self. And what we got? Well, first of

all, we're a host of really bad

questions. I'm sorry, the interviewer.

We we we need to work on better

questions. Okay? Next time, call me and

we'll work on better questions because

those questions weren't that good. But

second, we really didn't get a double

Powell here. We actually just got a

reiteration of kind of like a Yeah, man.

We don't really know what's going on,

bro. Like, this is some unusual crap.

Whatever, man.

That's kind of what we got, which isn't

what the economy or the stock market

wanted. The stock market really wanted.

Yeah. You know, we're reiterating, uh,

looks like we're on the course for two

more rate cuts this year. This,

especially after Bostic and others from

the Fed are like, oh, no, no, no, maybe

one and done. That's it. We don't even

need any more rate cuts. We really need

to see the labor market roll over before

we do any more rate cuts. But we didn't

get a reiteration of any more rate cuts

today from good old Powi Wowi. All we

got are Disney raising prices of Disney

Plus. What the hell? That's all right.

You can still use the coupon code meet

Kevin to get into the or coupon code

daddy's back to get into the meet Kevin

membership where we do our alpha report

every single morning before market is

open. But that expires on Friday. Okay.

Now that said, which means the price is

also going up on Friday. That said,

Powell didn't give us that doubbishness

that a lot of folks were hoping for. We

got neutrality. We got the following. We

got downside risk to employment prompted

last week's cut. There's no risk-free

path. Old news. Consumer spending has

slowed. Okay, that doesn't sound great

for earnings. So, where are the rate

cuts? Uh, well, we're in an unusual and

challenging environment with both

declines in supply and demand for

workers. Okay. So, where are the cuts?

Nah, we don't know because even though

the labor market is less dynamic, we

have numbers that give us mixed signals.

See, we have the job creations that are

down, but job openings are sideways and

unemployment claims are sideways. Can

somebody tell Powell, by the way, that

unemployment claims are a super duper

lagging indicator? And unemployment

claims usually spike only when you're in

the depths of a recession, not before

that, but whatever. So again, you got

this sort of like, yeah, we got big

signals, things are me, but we don't

even talk about rate cuts. There's no

talk at all about rate cuts. The lady

asked dumb questions. Oh, so what are

you going to do all later today? And

Paul's like, I'm going to work on my way

home on the plane. Like, who freaking

cares, woman? Anyway, uh Paulo says good

prices goods prices are rising, but the

prices largely reflect increases because

of tariffs, not some kind of broader

supply pressures. So, he does talk down

inflation, which is good. It's probably

why bond yields are ticking down a teeny

bit because he really talks down

inflation. And he kind of reiterates

that inflation is going to be

transitory. Now, he says this in a

different way, which is worth

remembering. The way he says it now uh

is he says the actual effects on

inflation are very modest so far from

tariffs maybe.3 or point4% of 2.9% PCE

so a small fraction the pass through has

been later uh and less than expected

both of those things obviously very

bullish he also says the tariff impacts

will likely be spread out over the next

few quarters but long-term measures of

inflation expectation do not think that

inflation is going to increase and we

don't think that the long-term results

of tariffs uh will lead to any kind of

longerterm increase in prices either.

That's just a rebranded way of saying

these tariffs too will be transitory in

the nature of inflation. So all of this

to say that you know he doesn't give us

concern about inflation. He says yeah

there are things to watch in the labor

market. You know layoffs are low. That's

sort of a hint that hey, if layoffs take

up, we're screwed, which is true, but he

tells us, but there are no signs really

that that's going to happen right now.

Talks about the beige book says the

economy is growing. AI is booming. No

red flags in any of the different

sectors within the country. And the

beige book says yes, hiring rates have

dropped and job creation rates have

dropped, but again, people are just in a

low hire low fire economy. maybe because

of uncertainty around policy and the

long-term impacts of the big beautiful

bill or clarity on tariffs. A lot of

people actually say that that

uncertainty is a bullish catalyst now

because now we have the text of the big

beautiful bill. Like we've got a bunch

of new lectures coming out probably in

about a week or two here uh on tariffs

uh and the big beautiful bill and like

how to take advantage of the tax

initiatives that came from the big

beautiful bill. that's going to be in

the Trumponomics uh course where we're

adding a bunch of tax moves for the end

of the year. Uh the course itself could

be a tax write-off, but anyway, the uh

there are a lot of people saying that

those

like the reality that we know what

tariffs are now, we see what some of the

early impacts are and we know what the

tax plan are or the tax plan is are

enough to actually remove uncertainty

from the market which could lead to

bullish moves to the upside. So in other

words, people look at uncertainty fading

as bullish. Powell being neutral as

bullish. Overall, this is pretty decent.

I mean, the Q's hit our price target of

600, which was our course member alpha

report price target over the last few

weeks. Freaking nailed it. Anybody who

played 3-week calls would have made some

big dollars on that. But we also

cautioned that, you know, we got to be

careful between, you know, this week,

frankly, and the beginning of October

because you do have a lot of catalysts.

Not only Powell speaking today, but

you've also got October 1st ADP. October

3rd, we're going to get uh the BLS jobs

report hoping to get a rebound to about

50,000 jobs. We'll see if we can pull

that off. Obviously, we're looking for

that Doge impact as well, which we think

will be mostly adjusted out. Uh but

there are a lot of catalysts coming

within the next two weeks here. So

nervousness around government shutdown

combined by jobs numbers, challenger

reports, PC inflation, jolts reports,

all these data sets coming out over the

next two weeks, it's going to create a

little bit more of a tentative trading

environment. And that's probably what

we're seeing right now given that Powell

did not reiterate the the very three

rate cuts that were forecast in the

summary of economic projections. Now, I

know technically it's not a forecast,

but I mean, think about it. We got a

doubbish statement. Oh, we're going to

do three rate cuts and Treasury yields

drop below 4% for a moment. Then Powell

is super duper neutral. Treasury yields

up to 4.15.

Okay, great. Then we get Fed speakers

that kind of the labor market weakens

more. We're we're done. We're not doing

any more cuts. And then today you got

Pal going

what the hell is going on, man? This is

this is unusual, friends.

So, what are you going to do about it,

pal?

I'll ride my bike. That's basically what

we got. And I think that's why the

market's a little pissed right now just

in the short term because it's like, all

right, Powell didn't give us any

clarity. So that now moved Powell as a

catalyst to the data. Data dependent. If

only we had the Halo guy to tell us that

>> data dependent.

>> All right, fine. So, uh this this again

shifts the catalyst for gains or

hopefully uh to jobs. uh we already know

this is going to be a big deal, but

really Pal talked more about how people

saying he's political is a cheap shot

than uh talking about rate cuts. He did

also say that a reasonable base case

would be that the tariff impacts will be

done by the end of 2026,

but beyond that, nothing. I mean, we got

Donald Trump right now saying that NATO

countries should shoot down Russian

planes if they enter their airspace,

right? That's what we need. Trump, uh,

World War II,

uh,

whatever. Uh, all of this makes me, you

know, just want to use a coupon code

somewhere. If only I could use a coupon

code somewhere. Oh, what do you know?

Meet Kevin.com and use coupon code

daddy's back. So, that's basically what

Powell said. Honestly,

not that big of a burger. Okay, it was a

punt. People were hoping for

doubishness, including myself. We got

nothing about this.

>> We'll we'll try a little advertising and

see how it goes. Congratulations, man.

You have done so much. People love you.

People look up to you. Kevin Praath

there, financial analyst and YouTuber.

Meet Kevin. Always great to get your

take.