Massive Covid LOCKDOWN in Germany | What it Means for US

hey everyone me kevin here it's your

stock doc and we've got to talk about

the lockdowns happening in germany and

what this could mean for the united

states are we ever going to expect these

sorts of lockdowns or mandates in the

united states we just heard joe biden

say no but could that u-turn the answer

to that in this video and what it could

mean for some of our investments but

first you might not know this i was born

in germany my entire family is german

and i'll tell you there's a lot of drama

going on in germany this is despite the

fact that germany is actually more fully

vaccinated than the united states

according to our world in data 68.6 of

germany is fully vaccinated that

compares to just 59.6 percent of

americans that are fully vaccinated this

means that germany is 15 ahead of us in

terms of vaccinations yet is now heading

into a substantial lockdown for those

unvaccinated germany is calling their

surge in covet cases a pandemic of the

unvaccinated this comes despite the fact

that a lot of folks believe that the

omicron variant could have arisen in

individuals who were vaccinated we knew

that four people from botswana had the

pfizer vaccine they caught it we knew

people in two people at least in

shanghai had the new omicron variant and

they were pfizer vaccinated and so there

are a lot of concerns that well wait a

minute

the new variant might not be that uh

that that uh we might be

what good is the vaccine going to do for

us if you could still get the omicron

this is of course where a lot of folks

are responding saying don't worry still

get the booster still get vaccinated

because your bigger fear is delta or a

different form of covet whereas the

omicron variant so far is indicating

potentially less severe symptoms and so

individuals are still being encouraged

to get vaccinated but what's happening

here in germany let's talk about that

and talk about how this could affect

america so first of all germany

and their covet cases are going through

the absolute roof in fact all you have

to do is do a quick little google for

german covid cases and this is what you

can see here we are at a ridiculous

all-time highs i mean we are more than

double uh the high that we had at any

other point during this pandemic we're

at 75 000 cases a day uh previously with

highs around uh 25 000 so uh 25 to 33

000 so it gets you a little bit more

than double from the tippy top of

december of 2020 and we're just now

getting into december of

2021 so this is definitely creating a

lot of nervousness you're seeing the

same thing over in uh the netherlands

you're seeing the same thing over in uh

austria which has also announced a

partial lockdown these are pretty strong

surges now the lockdown in austria has

been attributed to starting to show a

little bit of a rotation and this is why

a lot of folks are wondering could we

see pain like this any kind of lockdown

pain in the united states if we end up

getting a surgeon covet which if we look

right now

we're not really seeing a big surge

right now we had our delta surge over

here at the end of july and into august

beginning of september but so far we've

been pretty blessed in the united states

that covet cases are mostly heading down

even though we are starting to see some

hot spots in various different areas

obviously the contagiousness of omicron

is or was certainly making folks a

little bit more nervous but let's

understand a little bit more about this

mandate or this lockdown in germany the

new restrictions in germany mean that

people are who are unvaccinated are only

eligible to meet two people from other

households and that unvaccinated folks

will literally not be able to go to

concerts restaurants stores malls

theaters or really anything

unless they're vaccinated they'll be

able to go to the grocery store and a

pharmacy but that's it

then they're also imposing rules that

bars and nightclubs will be required to

shut down if an area has high infection

rates

regardless of whether people are

vaccinated or not greece is already

requiring mandatory vaccines in those

over 60. austria plans to make vaccines

mandatory in february germany might

follow in these footsteps uh or in the

footsteps of austria europe in general

the european uh you know central block

is even considering some form of larger

vaccine mandate

but in the meantime these lockdowns are

something to pay attention to because

we're having big issues in europe and

even though joe biden just announced

that we're going to require one day pcr

test that is you have to take a pcr test

one day before internationally traveling

to get into the united states you can

still bring covet in because the false

uh negative rate of the test is

relatively high within the first one to

five days that you actually have coveted

this creates issues because if you get

tested after being exposed to covid and

you have covid you could test negative

and bring it into the country right for

potentially two or three days where

you're in this weird void where your

tests are going to come back negative

but you actually do have covet that's a

problem now in-home tests are helping

but what is this potential lockdown mean

for the united states and travel stocks

of the united states recovery stocks in

the united states so far not much in

fact recovery stocks have a surge after

joe biden mentioned no mandates and no

lockdowns or no more mandates and no

lockdowns in the united states no more

restrictions in the united states

restrictions on international travel but

so far we're not seeing a pressing need

for lockdowns in the united states which

i think is why recovery stocks are

actually rebounding from some of the

lows that we fall into after the

discovery of the omicron variant i

actually continue to believe that

there's an opportunity to swing trade

some of the recovery stocks here in

america but we're going to want to see

this is exactly what i'd recommend you

pay attention to if you're going to play

these sorts of swing trades is make sure

you pay attention

to

germany and hope and pray that what's

happening in austria that is their

lockdown's actually working okay this

isn't loading so let's try this here

there we go austria with their lockdowns

actually apparently working and getting

to an inflection point in cases you can

see the inflection point very clearly

here in the chart you want to see that

happen in the netherlands you want to

see that happen in germany you want to

see that happen throughout the european

uh or the eurozone really so that way at

the same time we hope that our cases

will stay low in the united states as

long as this is the case as long as we

continue to relatively trend down here

in the united states even though we've

had a recent little spike here on the

day we're still trending down as long as

this remains the case i'm optimistic for

recovery stocks we get a u-turn here

obviously it's going to hurt i don't

believe these sorts of

lockdowns of the unvaccinated are really

going to spread broadly in the united

states maybe

based on sort of local requirements and

look at los angeles for example los

angeles has a cove vaccine passport they

have a safe pass ordinance and this is

uh

people really say this is one of the

strictest

mandates or restrictions that we have

throughout the entire country

and basically if you can't prove that

you are fully vaccinated you have a very

very very difficult time going anywhere

that includes restaurants gyms

entertainment wreck facilities personal

care establishments you got to be fully

vaccinated in los angeles so los angeles

has definitely made it very difficult to

kind of get around without being fully

vaccined i do think uh though and i know

look i'm a fan of choice and i think a

lot of people are a fan of of choice uh

but uh if you are not vaccinated i do

think that these mandates

do lead a lot of people to decide you

know what i'm tired of the hassle let me

just get vaccinated but i want to hear

from you what do you think do

does the fact that we have these these

mandates in europe the fact that you

can't travel to canada unless you're

vaccinated the fact that you can't get

around in los angeles if these sorts of

mandates came to you would you consider

getting vaccinated if you're not

vaccinated or no way no no way jose

would you ever consider getting vaccine

curious to see what uh everybody thinks

in the comments on that one but do pay

attention to germany and austria this

could lead to continued pain especially

for indebted companies like carnival

cruise lines dave and buster's another

one obviously the international airlines

have the most at risk

i'm personally not playing the airlines

as a recovery play i'm playing a little

bit of a recovery play in payment

processors like visa but then also in uh

carnival cruise lines open to playing at

dave and buster's a little bit those are

sorts of uh sort of my coveted place but

i want to be monitoring these on almost

a day-to-day basis take some profits

where i can where there's some rebound

momentum get out of there and then get

into my longs which are usually higher

margin higher growth companies that

that are much more bullish on for the

very long term well i don't have to be

so worried about an overwhelming amount

of debt at a certain company so there

you have it that's my perspective thank

you so much for watching and folks we'll

see the next one thanks again bye