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you don't believe what UBS had to say

about gold today and it is a red flag

for the economy it's pretty loud out

here so let's run in really quick okay

so UBS came out with a piece and

suggested that

gold might indeed be a leading indicator

not just of those geopolitical tensions

that we're seeing but also of

recessionary

fears and they gave prices for where

gold can go in recessionary times they

use three examples

1972 1978 and 2008 in each of those

instances gold doubled or tripled in

value now this makes sense it

corresponds with a recession it also

corresponds with real rates going

negative which also makes sense just so

you know that's a really fancy way of

basically saying the FED is cutting

interest rates below the level of

inflation they do that because they want

to stimulate the economy and minimize

the fact that oh no we actually have a

potential recession on our hands and

that'll lead to joblessness and then the

other side of the fed's Dual mandate

becomes a lot more important which is

the labor

side at the same time though gold and

gold related stocks moved substantially

uh again look them up yourself one of

the easiest ways to get exposure might

be a gold-based ETF which might be like

an I I don't have any exposure to I

another one uh that a lot of folks are

paying attention to which I do have

exposure to is uh baric gold that's just

a gold mining company they've got

somewhere around 7 to800 million of free

cash flow they've got a substantial set

of assets relative to the debts they

have they're about 50% debt relative to

their actual like plant property and

Equipment which makes a lot of sense

that you would Finance some of your

equipment uh or your land and while

there's still work to do in terms of a

full fundamental analysis on that

company it is interesting as a potential

macro hedge and that's what a lot of

folks are paying attention to is gold

potentially a macro Hedge for recession

now here's the problem with pitch and

gold and I don't want to come across

pitching gold but this is UBS suggesting

that if we go into a recession gold

could do really well and guess what

could do really poorly equities now that

makes sense it would make sense that

equities wouldn't do that well in a

recession and gold would do really well

and the question right now is do we

really see signs of a recession and so

on that front no we don't lagging

indicators are doing very well like jobs

uh but again lagging indicators one of

the signs we got from the banks today

was actually from a company like you may

have heard of them JP Morgan and Chase

and what did they tell us loan growth is

finally slowing and so net interest

margins or net interest income is

starting to grow at a slower Pace or

decline and a lot of folks thought that

the growth that we were seeing at Banks

would not end that's a little bit of a

problem because when you get markets

that assume growth isn't going to stop

you get frothy valuation

this is potentially what you've seen in

the AI trade as well speaking of trade

by the way I had a bad day yesterday uh

yesterday on a day trade I was down like

at one point like

$35,000 we ended that day trade down uh

net net with the gains and losses down

about

10,200 so that sucked uh and I I did a

whole explanation video in the course

member live this morning in terms of

mistake I made and how I could prevent

that in the future the good news is I

implemented part of the strategy and

today we were able to day trade call

options on Tesla when it hit its floor

twice and pulled out a 20K gain we also

pulled some other trade uh this morning

which uh which also worked out pretty

well depending on uh the timing of how

you played it so point of this is if you

want all those stocks and psychology of

money Mone trade alerts make sure you're

part of them not always a win but even

in the losses there are big lessons and

they help us set up for wins the next

day so check those out you get all the

trade alerts in the stocks and

psychology and money group linked down

below now as far as recession do I am I

all of a sudden a recession bear no I'm

I'm re I'm just reading to you what UBS

is warning UBS put out a big piece

yesterday and other companies like macro

ear and other researchers are going oh

wa they're paying attention to this

what's interesting is about a month ago

we did a piece on the channel where we

talked about Goldman Sachs saying hey

now might be a time to go long

volatility as a hedge to your portfolio

so you buy call options on like the vix

for example or a derivative of the

vix that ended up working out really

well over the last week or so because I

mean the vix today was up like 25% so

sometimes what these researchers are

saying in terms of hey like I want to

pay attention to

this they're not without Merit consider

for a moment that yes with the time

potentially to set up a hedge for a

recession is when nobody's expecting a

recession we've gone from last year

everybody thinking there was a 50%

chance of recession to like now most

people going ah we're probably back to

normal levels like 20% chance of

recession the problem though is the

longer we keep rates higher for

longer the longer

we basically start putting pressure

against the recessionary wall and then

things start to break things start to

break when we start seeing debt bubbles

starting to explode not seeing that so

much yet you're seeing pain in a

subprime Autos we saw that in the FED

minutes we saw that in the um JPM

earnings call uh and we're seeing a lot

of commercial property distress but not

so much in multifam that's being

considered relatively stable we're

seeing rents stabilize but we are seeing

people who have a lot of debt buy now

pay later date debt Consumer Debt uh you

know variable interest R uh rate loan

debt and so we're seeing foreclosures

start to rise certainly in the multif

family side and also on FHA so some of

the early signs of cracking are starting

to show up and that might be why gold

hit $2,400 an ounce today now we did get

rejected at $2,400 an ounce we're back

down to 2350

but based on that UBS survey a lot of

folks think or maybe not survey their

research a lot of folks think hm does it

actually make sense to start exposing

yourself to maybe you know 1 to 5% gold

as a hedge I don't know it really

requires a recession for that to play

out if you don't get a recession you

might be buying at levels where Gold's

already gone up a chunk you know we're

up somewhere around what $3 $400 just

over the last few months on on a you

know per ounce basis of gold which is

somewhere around 15 20ish per. so it's

possible that if we just keep getting

great economic news maybe that's a bad

move and I'm not advocating for anything

one way or another but what I am saying

is UBS is under the impression there's a

big opportunity there and again when

what they say is watch for real rates

going negative because it pumps gold

watch for recessions because it pumps

gold in 72 78 look at the chart in 2008

2 to 3x I think it was 3X 3X and 2x if I

remember correctly so again not here to

Shi it got a tiny bit of exposure to

baric Gold it's super super nominal and

I don't even know if that's the best

play yet so it's not certainly not

research here this is not Financial

advice it's not personal advice by any

means uh these are just opinions based

on what I read from UBS we read that in

our course member live stream uh and and

and we talked about it in our public

live a little bit this morning and I

wanted to go a little bit more into

detail on it uh and how it's somewhat

relating to what we're seeing with banks

concerns about debt uh and uh as sort of

a hedge tool which we saw pitched with

the vix as well and Goldman was right on

that so what I want to know now is Will

UBS be right as well let me know in the

comments down below and check out the

stocks and psychology of Money Trade

alerts again we're up 20K today and that

is financing my trip today cuz we're

looking at real estate out here and I

pay for the flights and I think I just

paid for a lot of fuel let's go