Shocking Report *JUST OUT* | The Coming Recession.

my goodness this is an absolutely

shocking report I am blown away by this

because folks this chart that I'm going

to show you in the next 30 seconds here

is a mind-blowing first of all I just

want to empathize most business owners

are like man this is no 2021 anymore I

empathize with that sales and revenues

are not what they were in 2021. by no

means now I did get a surge yesterday

because we announced this new AI feature

for our Elite Hustlers course which

we're rebranding as a make money and get

sh9t done faster course and we had a

surge in sale so numbers are great check

out that link down below we've got the

price going up on Friday but what's

important is that most businesses right

now are seeing declines in numbers you

know I took a pause from doing

Affiliates or sponsorships for a while

uh because they it really it was the

right thing to do at the time and I

tried a few Affiliates and sponsors

again just in probably about for about a

month uh ending about a week ago and

I'll tell you they're still not worth it

you know it used to be back in 2021 as a

business owner you could say hey go to

metcaven.com stream yard and you get an

explosive return for for doing that uh

even though the product is still

phenomenal paid sponsors like this or

Affiliates like this they're not worth

it anymore now you can still do that but

they're not worth it anymore and so by

many regards the economy is softening

right if you're super super poor you're

stock paying high electricity bills and

food bills grocery bills everything is

is off the charts right restaurants have

gotten obscenely expensive if you're

middle to upper class you're feeling the

recession because valuations are down

for your assets homes Autos uh boats uh

you know stocks everything's hurt right

if you held bonds beforehand it hurts

yeah now we can get higher yields on our

cash which is great but but wait a

minute

is the economy actually in a recession

or not what's going on well if you look

at this ADP report that just came out

the economy is doing just fine in fact

look at the trend first the ADP report

expectation was 150 000 jobs would be

added but I want you to see the trend of

the last six months for ADP reports you

ready for this it is right here

what the heck

that is a trend up now we know that jobs

data is lagging right everybody keeps

talking about how jobs data is lagging

they should be going negative soon well

if it was going negative soon it should

be trending down not trending up I mean

that either looks like a RuneScape party

hat or an uptrend

and for the sake of this video it is an

uptrend look at this report that we got

the April report was 296

000 jobs the expectation was 150. this

Friday at 5 30 a.m I will be live

streaming it we are expecting 186

000 jobs from the BS Report uh or the

BLS report uh Bureau of Labor Statistics

will be releasing their jobs report

we're expecting 186 000 jobs I will be

live streaming that live at 5 30 a.m

Pacific Time mark your calendar for that

but we didn't expect this ADP report to

come out with a double it doubled the

expectation from 150 to 296 is basically

a double which is really remarkable and

it's also the strongest ADP report that

we have gotten

uh in the last six months which is also

remarkable because wait a minute I

thought companies are laying off and

things should be slowing down but wait a

minute if you actually think about this

think about how many excess job openings

we have even though you hear Morgan

Stanley is laying off all the tech

companies are laying off Dropbox laid

off 500 people because they think

artificial intelligence can do their job

for them uh IBM says 30 of their back

office staff in the next five years is

basically going to get fired because

artificial intelligence will just do

their job like human resources

employment verification stuff like that

uh parts of HR obviously not all of it

but that's shocking that I mean AI is

revolutionary if you're not studying

artificial intelligence you are going to

get left behind that's why I'm including

it in my making money and get more stuff

done faster course check out that link

down below because the price will go up

now that we're adding this that is on

pre-sale all that AI content is coming

out the actual productive AI content is

coming out on June 1st mark your

calendar for that but what's remarkable

is the jolts report suggests we have

about an excess of three million jobs

yesterday I referred to this as the

insulative blanket right it's the

blanket that lets our economy stay

strong while we go through job losses

but if you think about it you could

literally get 1

000 Morgan Stanley 3 000 job layoff

reports you can get 1 000 of those

headlines and you would just be at par

par think about that for a moment here

let me show you that visually because

it's a big deal it shows you how strong

the economy still is despite the fact

that a lot of us as business owners or

even employees we see the softening like

the softening is here the softening is

happening we are feeling the pinch it's

starting I walked into a Hugo Boss in

New York and they're like you know we're

finally starting to see the signs

that's a red flag so I'm not trying to

make like a you know super uber bullish

thing here just saying this jobs report

is mind-blowing this morning and I

understand things get noisy but again if

you look at that that six month Trend

right here

the six month trend is up and it's

remarkable that the six month trend is

up like this but understand this about

the jolts report because it will help

you understand how much of an insulated

blanket we have and why the FED can play

this higher for longer game if we have

three million excess job openings right

three million excess openings and we

have let's say roughly for simple math 6

million unemployed this means we have

nine million openings right we could

literally lose all three million of

those excess openings so three million

people could get laid off and take those

three million jobs and then you would

still be matched with six million

openings for 6 million unemployed people

how crazy is that that's what the

Federal Reserve is trying to mine down

right they're trying to get that ratio

to a one-to-one balance right now you're

like a one to 1.5 1.6 if you do the

numbers exactly balanced so there's

plenty of this insulated blanket until

we get to one to one I I don't know if

we could price in cuts and this ADP

report at least it's not an in wage

price spiral style report you know the

ADP report was actually good in terms of

wages look at wages you're still seeing

wage gains of 6.7 percent for people who

stay in their jobs year over year 13.2

percent for job stayers but what I'd

like to do is rather than just show you

this report I'd like to show you the

comparison of this report to last report

and so I manually wrote this out in the

course member live this morning uh you

remember when the course member lives

daily when we do them when the market is

open we we talk about things like the

forward earnings call AMD evaluations

and fundamental analysis so if you want

to passively listen to this really high

value content you want to be part of

those course member live streams we

might be moving sort of and integrating

parts of the meet Kevin report I had

been doing live pretty regularly on the

channel into the course member lives now

and starting those earlier there's a lot

of people are asking for those in the

course members so we'll probably start

the course member live a little earlier

but anyway look at these changes so I

just wrote them in Blue on the right the

April numbers compared to the March

numbers holy smokes job stayers you're

seeing a decline in every category of

wage gains now I'm not cheering people

making less money people are actually

making more money here right but none of

this is showing you a wage price spiral

because none of it is showing you that

wages are actually going up at a higher

rate than they were last month and these

are all year over year comparisons as

well I'd love to see the month over

month that on this we'll get that in the

jobs report this weekend or sorry this

Friday but look at these changes in

establishment hiring small businesses

went from 101 000 to 2 or 121 000 job

hires medium went from 33k to 122 and

large went from 10K to forty seven

thousand all walks of businesses are

growing look at the different types of

businesses here you still have a

Slowdown in manufacturing which just to

explain that really quick that's because

wholesale inventory is still so high if

the Orange is inventory then you have to

manufacture less and you can still sell

products to Consumers right uh so it

makes sense that you're seeing some

manufacturing slow down because we just

built up so much excess inventory

because of kova days uh and we're not

growing like we were in 2021 obviously

so even though we planned for that kind

of growth we don't have that kind of

growth but look at leisure and

Hospitality I mean here massive increase

98 000 jobs to 154 000 jobs you're

seeing less job declines in the

declining segments with the exception of

manufacturing but otherwise everybody's

back to hiring so it makes me wonder

were these layoffs just a q1 adjustment

and the economy is back to Crazy growth

but again go to this April report and

the fact that this April report is

showing us we added twice as many jobs

as back to 296 000 that's setting up for

we're not in a recession yet

maybe the recession was last year and

that's it and and inflation goes away

and things are good we just Nike Swoosh

recovery I still believe the Nike Swiss

recovery it's every single day that

people like oh Kevin you flips up every

day no I don't like literally I told you

and I've been saying it Nike Swoosh

volatile recovery the stuff you buy

today I think we're gonna look back 10

years ago from now we're gonna look back

and go damn I wish I bought more it's

gonna be volatile yeah there's gonna be

a you know an sh-9t storm uh every day

with with this volatile data but that's

because we're in such uncertain times

but I try my best to to parse through

all of the data

and the data just isn't that scary uh

the banking crisis is nonsense uh yeah

we're gonna have Fringe Banks fail but I

really don't see something massively

systemic and I'm not just trying to

reiterate talking points the First

Republic balance sheets weren't actually

that horrible yeah they were they had

way more loans than cash we know that

but every Bank does so does sulfi okay

way more loans than cash they've got

about 25 of their loans in cash it's not

me saying oh pull your money on a sofa

no it's just I'm not not

I'm not saying there aren't going to be

more banks that fail but do we think

we're going to have a 2008 style banking

crisis no do I really worry about dollar

D dollarization you know losing the

reserve status of the world no do I

really worry about the debt ceiling no

but I've also made that clear in all of

my videos over the past month am I

really worried about you know uh oh we

this was a great stat by the way we did

this in the course member live stream uh

our good buddy Steve he's like hey man

but you know what if International

Imports slow down and we did the math

and we're like okay if Chinese Imports

of United States products fell 10 it

affects our GDP by like six basis points

so in other words if our GDP is one

percent minus 10 Chinese Imports we'd be

at like point nine four percent GDP kind

of interesting Europe had about twice

the impact uh but anyway that kind of

analysis I think is very interesting

because it really lets us cut through

the emotion of the headlines and see wow

there are still some really strong

shoots and this economy that's not

saying we're not going to go into a

recession but the idea is what we're

what we're doing I really like the

insulated fire example okay because I

think it's the best example is what

you're doing is you're saying here's us

and we're uncertain and we're we're in a

box okay we're in a box that has

insulation that looks like this and the

insulation is jolts it's excess personal

savings still in excess of a trillion

dollars it's a personal uh you know a

percentage it's the percentage that

people are spending on their debts for

their household expenditures is actually

at a lower percentage than it used to be

even though yes debts are rising

people are spending Less on a percentage

of their income on their debts which is

good

uh then uh then it's jolts it's job

openings your ability to get another job

and really what's happening is you have

this fire right and the fire is trying

to burn through this insulation and the

fire is the Fed raising rates it's kind

of like a cavity you know trying to

drill in to get to the nerve and this is

creating a lot of fear and uncertainty

and that fire goes away and that cavity

so to speak stops growing as soon as

inflation is gone so the hope is that we

can kill inflation before it penetrates

the box that we're in

and as long as we could do that we could

go back to being happy

uh but there's still a little bit of an

uncertain face right there

uh but the point is uh obviously get

into that course that's going to have an

amazing AI segment uh June 1st before uh

this Friday so you could get the best

pricing on it because we'll be raising

the pricing since we're adding all this

extra content but everybody inside is

getting it for free uh and if you join

you get those same benefits right you

get lifetime access and when I add new

segments you get those as well uh so

it's I'm always wanting to reward and

give back to people who have given to me

and I think that's important and also

you the viewer very important I continue

to provide value every single day here

so thank you if you like this kind of

content make sure to subscribe like the

video and share it but look bottom line

am I really worried about the feds 25 BP

hike no because economy is just fine

right right now

the concern is inflation so mark your

calendar because we will know how much

longer that fire has to burn based on

the calendar now keep in mind today we

are not going to get a summary of

economic projections the next one will

be June 14th which is the day after the

next CPI report actually there are two

CPI reports coming out there's a CPI

report coming out a week from today I

will be covering that live Mark these on

your calendar okay ready for this uh May

5th 5 30 a.m jobs

May 5th 11 59 pm course price goes up

May 10th 5 30 a.m Pacific

CPI June 13th 5 30 a.m Pacific

CPI June 14th

11 30 a.m Federal Reserve summary of

economic projections and press

conference the summary of economic

projections actually come up 30 minutes

before that same thing today you've got

the FED meeting today we're going to get

25 we'll get some hawkish commentary

about like well we're going to be data

dependent it's really the FED meeting

today is going to be here's 25 we're

going to wait for the next two CPI

reports to see how much longer we have

to keep this freaking fire going at

least this number from Nick T here is

falling which is the quits data which is

actually really important to see that

people are quitting their jobs less

because when people quit their jobs it's

a sign that they think they can get a

better job somewhere else

you don't quit your job if you think

you're gonna be unemployed and you then

you stay

so anyway look not nervous I'm going to

continue providing analysis on all of

this information but I really believe in

the Nike Swoosh recovery yeah there's no

flip-flop it's just gonna be volatile so

we're going to get Negative information

we'll get positive information look we

in the course remember live this morning

we went through Ford we went through AMD

we're looking for signs of a wage price

spiral we're looking for signs at the

bottom we're looking for someone when

one of these numbers are going to get

better for uh for AMD it's probably Q3

Q4 however they're getting smashed today

absolutely smashed it now is it a buying

opportunity depends what PEG ratio

evaluation you want to put on them and

if you think they're actually going to

get to about 250 in EPS this year and

maybe pop that up to about 420 next year

uh you know if you get that 250 this

year you're probably at somewhere around

a 2K uh for the company and assuming

about a 14 growth rate

so uh but anyway these are things we

could talk about more in more detail uh

but uh look for me I'm doing everything

I can to put one foot in front of the

other make sure we can increase as much

revenue as we can so that way we and and

we're going to do that by providing as

much value as we can to the community uh

and we're going to keep providing value

to these courses uh and then what we're

going to do is uh we're going to invest

in the stocks and companies that we

believe in because we think yes the Nike

Swoosh is going to be very volatile it

may take years to go back to this Nike

Swoosh recovery for for it to actually

progress and that's okay even if it

takes a decade we want to be in and

adding now and increasing our ownership

of great companies now during all this

uncertainty because not very fearful so

that's my take obvious personalized

Financial advice but again if you found

it helpful please consider sharing the

video I really appreciate you being here

and uh Hey folks we'll see in the next

one

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thank you